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Industrial Investment Author of this article: Liu Yang 2017-05-04
January to April 2017 is the period when listed companies publish annual reports,Zuo Yu’s first secondary tracking in May,A brief review of the 2016 tourism sector financial report,Summary of the overall tourism sector characteristics in 2016,And from the scenic spot、Hotel、Performing Arts、Catering、Compare travel agencies by industry segment。
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The sector structure remains stable in 2016,Income scale,China International Travel Service、China Youth Hostel、Jinjiang Shares、Uoxin Travel’s revenue exceeded 10 billion in 2016,State-owned enterprises still have an absolute advantage in scale。Among them,China National Travel Service still relies on its tax-free oligopoly business,Having an absolute lead in total revenue and net profit;Jinjiang through continued mergers and acquisitions,In 2016, the revenue scale surpassed that of Utrust and CYTS,Recovered as the second largest listed company in the industry。 Among enterprises with revenue of more than 6 billion yuan,Zuzhongxin Travel、Caesar Travel Outside,The rest are state-owned enterprises。

In 2016, several characteristics of the industry continued: 1、Mergers and acquisitions are the main driving force for the expansion of sector size,Among them, Chinese companies are still the main force in mergers and acquisitions;2、Private enterprises still have a significant lead in growth,Outbound tourism is still the fastest growing sub-sector。But there have been obvious changes: the sector’s endogenous growth ability is weak。Companies with top revenue growth in 2016 also mainly benefited from extended consolidation,Rushou Hotel acquires Home Inn (+389%)、Beibu Gulf Travel acquires Bokang Intelligent and increases Long Island cruise lines (+152%)、Jinjiang acquires Plateno and Vienna (+91.2%)、Songcheng Performing Arts Consolidated List of Six Rooms (+56%)。But excluding the impact of consolidation factors,BTG’s original main business income decreased by 0% to 5% year-on-year;Beibu Gulf Tourism’s original main business, Beiwei 188bet app download Passenger Transport, has a growth rate of approximately 14% in passenger volume and revenue;Jinjiang deducts and consolidates Plateau、Vienna、Influences such as Louvre,Income growth rate is approximately below 16%;

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Although the main driving force for the growth of sector scale in 2015 was also mergers and acquisitions (the main case was the merger and acquisition of Zhuyuan by Uxin Travel,Jinjiang shares acquire French Louvre Group,Yunnan tourism and Jiangnan gardens,Beijing Tourism Group acquires Nanyuan shares, etc.),But the endogenous driving force of the industry in 15 years is also strong,Excluding consolidated factors, Uxin’s revenue growth rate in 2015 is about 40%,The revenue growth rate of supply chain finance business, which provides the main revenue increase for Tempus, is about 400%,The three off-site projects of Songcheng Performing Arts have a year-on-year growth rate of more than 85%,Promote the company's overall revenue growth 46.7%;

In comparison,The sector’s endogenous growth rate lacked surprises in 2016,Caesar、Uxin revenue growth rate is 34% and 20%,Leading sector,But there is a significant decline compared with 2015;Temperature relies on business travel business (revenue +62%) to achieve 37% revenue growth,However, supply chain finance business revenue fell by about 5% year-on-year;Songcheng Performing Arts excludes the impact of online business consolidation,The growth rate of the original performing arts business is about 8.6%。Outbound travel、Supply chain finance、The growth rate of subdivided industries such as performing arts business has slowed down significantly。

二、Comparison by industry: The profitability of resource side and content side is strong and weak,Channel link has strong growth but weak profitability

The sector still continues the following characteristics: the profitability of the resource side and content side is strong and weak,Channel link has strong growth but weak profitability。Such as scenic spot、Hotel、Performing Arts、Catering、Tax-free, etc.,Generally enjoy high gross profit margin,Has strong brand value,At the same time, it is common that product and service iterations are slow、Characteristics of insufficient growth momentum。The gross profit margin of the channel link is significantly lower than that of the resource link,But because of the rapid product iteration,Growth is generally good。

33 listed 188bet app download companies in the sector,The total number of segmented businesses is close to 100。From the perspective of gross profit margin,The gross profit margin of each business within the segment is very widely distributed。The resource side business enjoys extremely high gross profit margin,Scenic spot operations such as destination operations、Scenic Area Passenger Transport,Hotel business、Performance business related to content provision、Franchise tax-free business, etc.;The gross profit margin of channel segments is generally significantly smaller than that,Mainly travel agency business。In terms of endogenous growth,Channel business continues to lead,Most of the businesses with slow or even negative growth are destination businesses。

1. Scenic spots: Long-term problems can be solved only through operational iteration.

The business of scenic spots in 2016 is still relatively flat,The overall growth of the sector remains weak,The situation of slow operation iteration under the high gross profit of scenic spots continues。Growth brought about by external dividends such as improved transportation environment cannot fundamentally solve the problem。The ropeway business in Huangshan and Lijiang performed well during the year,The nature of its growth rate is the change in consumption structure of existing passenger flow,Non-trend improvement。The core driving force for the growth of scenic spots comes from the sustainability of capital investment and the iteration speed of operations,The scenic spots with the fastest iteration speed show the highest growth rate。The data for 2016 also proves this。


2、Hotels: Structural opportunities for traditional hotels and trend opportunities for non-standard hotels。

Hotel business data has rebounded in 2016,Compared to the 2% organic growth rate of Jin Jiang Hotel business in 2015,He Boutique’s-1.1%,10% of Jinjiang endogenous products in 2016、BJT 2%、Plate overall 8.The weighted average growth rate of 2% (all excluding the impact of mergers and acquisitions) has indeed rebounded significantly。The occupancy rate and average house price continue to improve slightly,In the context of excess supply,Fluctuations in operating conditions are more likely to be structural factors rather than trend factors。

The contrast is,We often see very eye-catching operating data and financing data in B&B cases。In the investment and financing market,When the average room price exceeds 1,000,Annual occupancy rate exceeds 50%,GOP exceeds 188bet online sports betting 50%,Net interest rate exceeds 20%,These have become standard data for homestay projects on many financing platforms。And the financing level,The financing completion window for high-quality projects is generally within one day,Subscription multiples generally exceed 200%,There are many cases reaching 300% or even 600%。The valuation center of the non-standard accommodation industry is relatively high from the financial perspective。The wave of capacity filling passes through high-end hotels、After Express Hotel,Now arriving at non-standard accommodation。

3. Performing Arts: Undersupply and oversupply coexist

The observation dimension of the industry can be expanded along the replication ability and innovation ability。The overall growth of the performing arts business has suffered a setback。Songcheng Hangzhou business was disrupted by G20,Making its negative growth impossible to verify from the operational level。Although the Songcheng off-site project still shows higher growth than its peers,But it has dropped significantly from the previous growth rate of more than 100%。Latest published first quarter data,Sanya、Lijiang project growth rate is expected to continue to return to the range of 15% to 20%。In the development process of analogy clothing industry,suit、Sportswear、Casual wear、Fast fashion,Entering and exiting the center of popularity,A single pattern will not become an eternal theme。Demand for content continues to expand,But the supply level is relatively simple。

4. Catering: Lack of iteration and replicationThe catering sector is still unattractive in 2016,The overall revenue of the sector decreased。Although the domestic catering industry has recovered in stages before,The rise of mass catering in the first half of 2015 led to the slow recovery of the industry,Industry year-on-year growth rate increased to 11.5%,But the growth rate dropped in 2016。High-end catering continues to be under pressure。The revenue scale of the A-share catering sector is the largest in Quanjude,Catering business income 18.500 million yuan,Although there is a significantly higher gross profit margin and obvious brand value,But lack of growth over the years,The stock value of existing products has been maximized。Compared with Zhou Heiya’s data, revenue in 2016 was 2.8 billion,Income growth remains above 16%,Gross profit margin and net profit margin are 60% and 25% respectively,Food companies enjoy the operating data of cosmetics companies。Catering is essentially a content production enterprise,The essence is the same as acting。Therefore, content iteration and content copying are two dimensions of growth development。


5、Travel agency: Outbound tourism still holds the banner of growth,There is room for improvement in added value

From an industry perspective,Leading private travel agency leads the industry direction,Outbound travel is still the best market segment。But in terms of profitability,It seems more difficult for travel agencies to make money。The comprehensive gross profit margin of the travel agency sector is significantly lower than other sectors,In the huge outbound travel consumer market,Most domestic companies can only capture about 7% of gross profit margin and about 3% of net profit margin,This only shows that the entire outbound tourism market is still in a very early stage。Refer to the gross profit margin of some destination products,The uneven distribution of profits in the industrial chain becomes clearer。

Expand the industrial chain、Establish a brand、Increase service added value,These three directions are investment areas that need more attention in the future。

3. Summary

1、 The dynamic energy within the industry weakened in 2016,Outbound travel market、The growth rate of the performing arts market has declined。Industry expansion still mainly relies on mergers and acquisitions,Especially the mergers and acquisitions of state-owned enterprises。Private enterprise mergers and acquisitions are blocked。Mergers and acquisitions cover up a considerable part of the weak growth rate。

2、Most of the data improvements on the resource side are structural,Not trendy,Sustainability remains to be seen。The main reason on the resource side and content side is due to the lack of continuous investment and operational iteration,Grow with high gross profit,Poor enthusiasm for change,The performance is particularly outstanding in the scenic area department that relies on national resources。Replication ability and iteration ability are two dimensions for judging the resource side。

3、The channel end is under great pressure of low added value in the process of rapid growth。The channel end is under great pressure of low added value in the process of rapid growth。The industrial chain layout and brand building of channel-end enterprises are still continuing ideas。

4、From the perspective 188bet app of profitability and growth,The dividends from the continued rise of China’s tourism market continue to favor destinations,The market’s focus has experienced from the beginning that information is king,Change to channel is king,Change to resource is king。

*Author of this article: Liu Yang,Expert Author,Director of Zuoyu Capital、Investment Director of Zhejiang Ancient Village Protection Fund。


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