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May 5,C919 successfully made its first flight at Shanghai Pudong International Airport,It is China’s first large passenger 188bet Live Casino developed according to international standards and with independent intellectual property rights,It is my country’s first truly large civil aviation 188bet Live Casino after the Yun-10,Standard capacity: 158 passengers,The maximum range is 5500 kilometers。Because of the advantages of time,C919’s technology is more advanced than the latest Boeing 737,The price is less than half that of Boeing 737。From the formal establishment of a major science and technology project for the development of large 188bet Live Casino in 2007 to the first flight in 2017,China lasted 10 years,Finally realized the "big airplane dream"。
Of course,Flying with C919,More than just a “big airplane dream”,Maybe China’s 188bet Live Casino industry。In the user order of C919,A total of 570 aircraft ordered,Among them,74% were subscribed by aviation leasing companies,Then they sublease to major airlines。In orders from 23 customers around the world,There are three Hong Kong listed companies,respectively BOC Aviation、China 188bet Live Casino and CDB Leasing,They ordered 20 each、20 and 15。
1. Introduction to 188bet Live Casino industry
In 2014,As "Stock God" Buffett and Asia's "richest man" Li Ka-shing increase their investment in the 188bet Live Casino industry,The industry has also quickly entered the Asian capital market and even the public’s attention,Receiving more and more attention。More than ten years ago,Airlines tend to choose to purchase their own aircraft。But in recent years,Leasing aircraft has become a mainstream solution for airlines。
188bet Live Casino means that the lessor provides the aircraft to the lessee for a certain period of time,The lessee pays rent to the lessor regularly according to the lease contract。The current 188bet Live Casino model is mainly divided into financial leasing and operating leasing,The main difference between the two is whether all risks and rewards associated with ownership of the aircraft asset are transferred。Financial leasing means that the leasing company buys the aircraft from the aircraft manufacturer,Then transfer to the airline,Aircraft ownership essentially belongs to the airline,It is a financing model,The lease period is also longer, usually more than 8 years。Different from finance lease,The operating lease model is owned by the leasing company,Airline returns aircraft after lease expires,Or purchase the aircraft at the agreed price。The general lease period of operating leases is relatively short, about 3-5 years。Since operating leases are fully taxable,Financial lease only pays tax on the interest difference,Most domestic leases are now finance leases,But in recent years, the business has been transforming into more professional operating leasing。
The main reasons why airlines turn to leasing 188bet Live Casino are:
1) More flexible,Avoid long delivery times when purchasing 188bet Live Casino,And easy to cancel the lease;
2) Even if financing and loan difficulties are difficult, 188bet Live Casino can still be obtained through the purchasing power of leasing companies;
3) Retain cash to invest in other development projects 188bet Live Casino airline;
4) The use of operating leases 188bet Live Casino not affect credit rating;
5) Operating leasing to avoid asset depreciation,Financial lease is included in the assets of the airline but does not require the purchase price of the 188bet Live Casino to be paid in one go,Well balanced airline balance sheet,Optimize asset-liability ratio,Improve the company’s financial status。
China’s 188bet Live Casino market is currently dominated by bank leasing companies,Mainly ICBC Leasing、CDB Leasing、Minsheng Leasing、BoCom Leasing、CMB Leasing、CCX Leasing。The main advantages are:
1) Strong brand,Many customer resources,Wide coverage of institutions;
2) Strong financing ability and low cost;
3) Strong capital strength,Can purchase 188bet Live Casino in large quantities,Low price;
4) Standardized management and low risk control capabilities.
Global fleet leasing penetration rate increases year by year。Global fleet size in 1980 was 6,037,The scale of operating leased aircraft has reached 100,Operating leasing penetration rate reaches 1.7%。To2014, the global aircraft fleet size reached 20726, the operating lease fleet size is8440frame, operating leasing penetration rate reaches40.7%。According to data from FlightGlobal Consulting Company (pictured above),The future is 2020,It is estimated that the operating leasing penetration rate will exceed 50%。The above data does not include aircraft under financial lease,Only the proportion of operating leased aircraft,It can be seen that the market potential of 188bet Live Casino is huge in the future。Estimated2016-2035In the year, the global average annual new machine growth rate was 1136About 14562_14573 aircraft, the total fleet size will reach45240frame, toCalculated with an average rental ratio of 50%, there will be 22730Demand for 188bet Live Casino, it is estimated that the 188bet Live Casino market space will reach0 billion.
Not only global,The future of China’s 188bet Live Casino industry is also optimistic about by professional institutions:
According to Boeing forecast,It is expected that China’s civil aviation will need to add more than 2,500 new aircraft by 2020,188bet Live Casino involves at least US billion,China’s market will need at least 6,000 new aircraft in the next 20 years。
According to the forecast of the aviation leasing industry research team of Qianzhan Industry Research Institute,By 2025,China’s civil aviation fleet will increase by 3,000 188bet Live Casino,Calculated based on 60% rental rate,Meaning that approximately 1,600 additional leased 188bet Live Casino will enter the Chinese market,By then, China’s civil aviation leasing market will reach more than 130 billion US dollars。
According to the "COMAC 2016-2035 Civil 188bet Live Casino Market Forecast Annual Report",By 2035,China’s fleet will reach 8139 188bet Live Casino,Accounting for 18% of the global fleet。
A data chart from Boeing,It also shows that 188bet Live Casino companies have more profit potential than airlines,Stable profit margin,Basically hovering around 15%-20%,And airlines’ profit margins are less than 5%。Dazzling profit margins have also attracted more and more investors to pay attention to the 188bet Live Casino industry。
2. Introduction to 188bet Live Casino companies listed on the Hong Kong stock market
1. BOC 188bet Live Casino (02588.HK)
BOC Aviation was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in June 2016,Becoming the world's largest 188bet Live Casino operating leasing company listing project。After listing,Bank of China Group holds 70% shares,Continue to provide strong financial support to BOC Aviation。The company is headquartered in Singapore,And in Dublin、With offices in London and Tianjin。BOC Aviation’s current scale is the largest in Asia in the industry、The fifth largest in the world。
BOC Aviation’s business does not involve 188bet Live Casino dismantling business,In addition to traditional rental income,To keep the fleet young,Selling old 188bet Live Casino becomes another source of business。2016,Net proceeds from the sale of 188bet Live Casino accounted for approximately 7% of total revenue.6%。2016,The company’s net profit continues to grow,Grown 22% year-on-year to US8 million,Profitable for 23 consecutive years。Asia is the region where BOC Aviation’s business is most concentrated,54% of total rental income last year.8%,More than half。Among them,Mainland China、Hong Kong、Macau and Taiwan account for a total of 21.0%。And America、Europe and the Middle East and Africa account for 17 each.1%、22.0%&6.1%。
2. China 188bet Live Casino (01848.HK)
China 188bet Live Casino was listed on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on July 11, 2014,is the first listed aircraft lessor in Asia,The company is currently the largest independent operating aircraft lessor in China (calculated based on the total number of aircraft owned and new aircraft orders),And has successfully expanded to Asia-Pacific、European and American markets。The company is headquartered in Hong Kong,In Beijing、Shanghai、Shenzhen、Tianjin、Labuan Island, Malaysia、Toulouse, France、Office in Dublin, Ireland。The largest shareholder of China 188bet Live Casino is China Everbright Aviation Financial Holding Company,The shareholding ratio is 31.09%。
The company is Asia’s first aircraft full industry chain solution provider,Also the first supplier in Asia to provide comprehensive solutions for old aircraft。The group not only provides operating leases、Financial lease、General services such as sale and leaseback,We also provide fleet planning consultation、Structured Finance、Fleet Replacement for New、Extensive value-added services such as aircraft dismantling and aviation material sales,Provide customized aircraft life cycle solutions for airlines。China 188bet Live Casino was selected as the “Best Aircraft Lessor of the Year” by Global Transport Finance magazine for two consecutive years in 2015 and 2016。
3. CDB 188bet Live Casino (01606.HK)
CDB Financial Leasing Co., Ltd. is approved by the China Banking Regulatory Commission,A non-bank financial institution established by the China Development Bank after the equity restructuring and capital increase of the original Shenzhen Financial Leasing Co., Ltd.。The company was established in 1984,Started 188bet Live Casino operating leasing business in 2006,It is the earliest company in China to carry out aviation leasing business。The company was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in July 2016,It is the first listed financial leasing company in China。
Except Shenzhen headquarters,In Tianjin Free Trade Zone、Shanghai Free Trade Zone、Xiamen Area of Fujian Free Trade Zone、There are five 188bet Live Casino business platforms in Ireland and the Cayman Islands。Different from BOC Aviation and China 188bet Live Casino, which focus on 188bet Live Casino,CDB Leasing except 188bet Live Casino,Infrastructure is also involved、Ship、Leasing services for commercial vehicles, construction machinery and other industries,The specific proportions are shown in the figure above,188bet Live Casino revenue accounts for about half of the main business。The major shareholder of CDB Leasing is China Development Bank Co., Ltd.,Percentage 64.4%。
Three. Comparison of 188bet Live Casino operations
1. 188bet Live Casino size
As of the end of 2016,BOC Aviation has a total fleet of 284 aircraft including owned aircraft and managed aircraft,Customer coverage of 68 airlines in 32 countries and regions,Includes most of the world’s leading airlines。China’s 188bet Live Casino fleet reaches 81 aircraft,Customer base reaches 16 airlines。CDB leases a total of 203 owned and managed aircrafts,The company’s business involves 22 countries and regions and has 41 customers,There are 29 overseas customers。
BOC Aviation has the largest fleet。Although the old leasing company CDB Leasing ranks second,But the 188bet Live Casino business is only half of its total business,So it should not be underestimated。China 188bet Live Casino, which is temporarily lagging in scale, said it expects the company's fleet size to increase to 173 aircraft in 2022,Is gradually expanding the scale。
2. Profitability
Because we are in the 188bet Live Casino industry,So first compare the 188bet Live Casino income levels of the three companies,Equivalent to the main business level。BOC Aviation and China 188bet Live Casino are companies specializing in 188bet Live Casino business,188bet Live Casino income is also particularly important to them。It can be clearly seen from the picture above,The rental income of both companies has grown steadily in the past four years,No particularly big fluctuations,It also reflects that the development of the 188bet Live Casino market in recent years has gradually heated up。2016,BOC Aviation’s 188bet Live Casino revenue reaches approximately 81.300 million (HKD,The same below),China 188bet Live Casino is about 15.800 million。But relatively speaking,The growth rate of China 188bet Live Casino is higher than that of BOC Aviation。2014、2015 and 2016,China’s 188bet Live Casino growth rate is 44%,38%,27%,BOC Aviation’s 17% respectively,4% and 8%。China 188bet Live Casino is accelerating to expand its market share,So the gap between the two is gradually decreasing,2014,BOC Aviation’s 188bet Live Casino revenue is about 8 times that of China 188bet Live Casino,Reduced to 5 times by 2016。
Different from the previous two companies,CDB Leasing’s 188bet Live Casino business only accounts for half of its total leasing business。But because its fleet size is close to BOC Aviation,So CDB Leasing’s 188bet Live Casino income is still very objective,About 62 in 2016.500 million,More than 4 billion higher than China 188bet Live Casino, which specializes in 188bet Live Casino,Less than BOC Aviation。
Next, compare the net profits of the three companies。The net profits of BOC Aviation and China 188bet Live Casino are similar to the trend of the 188bet Live Casino market,It’s all improving year by year。BOC Aviation increased by 21% year-on-year in 2016.21% recorded a net profit of approximately 32.400 million。China 188bet Live Casino’s net profit in 2016 was approximately 6.400 million,Because of the size of the fleet,There is a certain gap compared with BOC Aviation,However, it increased by 67 compared with the same period in 2015.93%,Strive for the top。CDB Leasing with a wide leasing range,Affected by multiple rental markets,Net profit growth is less stable,Year-on-year decrease of 45% in 2015.after 07%,Another year-on-year increase of 48% in 2016.34%,The latest net profit is about 17.500 million。
3. Liabilities
The asset-liability ratios of the three leasing companies are as above,It can be seen that the debt ratios of China 188bet Live Casino and CDB Leasing are basically the same,Hovering around 90%。BOC Aviation has a lower debt ratio than the previous two,Basically around 80%,The debt ratio was as low as 74 in 2016.84%。Theoretically,The risk of BOC Aviation is smaller than that of the other two companies。However,Li Xiaojin, director of the Institute of Air Transport Economics at the Civil Aviation University of China, once said: “No one who really engages in 188bet Live Casino uses their own money to lease.,But use a little of your own money to leverage more funds for leasing。High asset-liability ratios are normal for these companies,Because this is a highly leveraged industry,If you can control it,Actually the risk is not big。”Reliance on financial leverage has always been a common format in the 188bet Live Casino industry。Buffett、Li Ka-shing entered the 188bet Live Casino industry and also used some of his own funds as leverage to leverage social funds。
The first holding of BOC Aviation is Bank of China,The largest holding company of China 188bet Live Casino is China Everbright Aviation Financial Holdings Co., Ltd.,The first holding of CDB Leasing is China Development Bank,The major shareholders of the three leasing companies are banks or large financial consortiums,There should be no difficulty in financing,Risks are also within control。
BOC Aviation is rated A- by S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings,The company’s average debt cost in 2016 was 2.5%。CDB Leasing is rated A+ by S&P,Moody's rating Aa3,Fitch Rating A+,The credit ratings are all higher than BOC Aviation。China 188bet Live Casino was rated AA+ by China Chengxin International Credit Rating Co., Ltd.。
IV. A hot spot business other than 188bet Live Casino─aircraft dismantling
Although China 188bet Live Casino is temporarily inferior to BOC Aviation and CDB Leasing in terms of scale and profitability,But it is worth mentioning that it is the only one of the three companies involved in the aircraft dismantling business。
The life of an 188bet Live Casino is limited,Generally, maintenance costs will increase after 15 to 20 years of flying,The overall safety of the 188bet Live Casino is reduced and other adverse conditions,This requires maintenance of older 188bet Live Casino、Modification or disassembly,Good condition、Valuable parts are recycled and reused,Thus realizing the recycling of the aviation materials industry chain。
According to industry introduction,After the 188bet Live Casino is disassembled,Many available parts such as engines、Landing gear and airborne parts can be resold for secondary use,188bet Live Casino skins, etc. can be recycled as scrap metal,Theoretically 90% of an 188bet Live Casino can be recycled and reused。The sale and purchase of 188bet Live Casino parts is the main source of profit for the 188bet Live Casino dismantling industry。For example, an airplane landing gear can be sold for million,An engine can be sold for million。According to statistics,An industrially operated 188bet Live Casino dismantling center,Calculated based on dismantling 20 Boeing 737 188bet Live Casino in one year,Can generate an output value of US0 million,The profit reached 35 million US dollars (equivalent to about 200 million yuan)。
As of the end of 2015,The average age of 188bet Live Casino of major Chinese airlines is about 5.7 years,Predictable,Domestic 188bet Live Casino dismantling、Modification、The market explosion period of repair will come in the next 10 years。But because aviation parts are high-precision instruments,There is a professional issue of technology access and residual value recovery,So,The 188bet Live Casino dismantling business should be considered a high-barrier industry。The domestic 188bet Live Casino dismantling business is also relatively weak,Until 2012,Guangzhou 188bet Live Casino Maintenance Engineering Co., Ltd. ("GAMECO"), a joint venture between China Southern Airlines Co., Ltd. and Hutchison Whampoa (China) Co., Ltd., was established,China has just begun to get involved in the 188bet Live Casino dismantling business。Currently,Every year, about 100 retired 188bet Live Casino from China are shipped to Europe and the United States for dismantling or cargo 188bet Live Casino modification。Visible,There are huge opportunities in China’s 188bet Live Casino dismantling market。
China 188bet Live Casino jointly initiated the establishment of Aircraft Recycling International Co., Ltd. (ARI) with Everbright International and other institutions in September 2014。China 188bet Live Casino is the largest shareholder accounting for 48%,China Everbright Holdings Co., Ltd. accounts for 14%。Since 2015,Aircraft Recycling International (ARI) begins construction of Zhonglong aircraft dismantling base in Harbin,This base is the largest aircraft dismantling base in Asia and the first in China。China 188bet Live Casino plans to invest US billion。The base covers a total area of 299149.6 square meters,It is expected to be completed and put into use by the end of 2023,100-120 aircraft dismantled per year。March 17, 2017,Aircraft Recycling International took delivery of six B737-700 aircraft from Xiamen Airlines,This is the first acquisition transaction of old aircraft since the establishment of Aircraft Recycling International。
5. Valuation and share price
Looking at the valuation,The market is relatively optimistic about the development of CDB Leasing,Gives relatively high PE,PB is relatively lowest。The market value of CDB Leasing is approaching 25 billion,As mentioned earlier, the profitability of CDB Leasing is also between BOC Aviation and China 188bet Live Casino,But,The corresponding stock price is currently less than 2 yuan,The lowest among the three。On the whole, CDB Leasing is likely to be an undervalued stock。If China 188bet Live Casino can open up a new world in the aircraft dismantling business in the future as expected,The market value should also increase significantly。
Summary
China’s 188bet Live Casino industry has developed rapidly in recent years,The most fundamental reason is that policy controls on financial leasing companies have been loosened since the "Administrative Measures for Financial Leasing Companies" in 2007。The China Banking Regulatory Commission approved China Construction Bank、ICBC、BoCom’s leasing company pilot,CDB Financial Leasing the following year、Minsheng Financial Leasing、CMB Financial Leasing and so on were born one after another。And so far,Almost all national commercial banks have established their own financial leasing companies。As more and more companies join,Competition has become fierce。
There are risks。2000 Philippine Airlines Flight 541 crash,A total of 131 passengers and crew members died,The family of the plane crash sued the American AAR leasing company to the Illinois court in the United States,And the case was settled and won in 2007,Received compensation of US.5 million per capita。A Yemeni Airlines Airbus A310 crashed in the Comoros Islands in the Indian Ocean in 2009,The American ILFC company that leases 188bet Live Casino is sued in court。
The industry has development risks,Of course, the probability of development greatly exceeds the probability of risk。The current performance of the three Hong Kong listed companies is remarkable,BOC Aviation is the largest aviation leasing company in Asia,The profit level is also the highest。The aircraft dismantling business involved in China’s 188bet Live Casino is expected to be a bursting point in the future。CDB Leasing is the oldest leasing company,The leasing business is also diversified and can better spread risks。Each has its own strengths,How to choose depends on how investors evaluate。
*Source of this article: WeChat public account: Things about Hong Kong stocks,Author: Elk never gets lost,Original title: "China’s first “large aircraft” C919 takes off,Can China’s 188bet Live Casino industry take off together??》
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