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Huatai Travel Team from "New、中、Three main lines of the country，Proposed a new investment strategy for the tourism industry。

“New” refers to the new model that has emerged in the tourism industry under the influence of the Internet。Online travel has always been characterized by wars and cooperation，The rise of mobile terminals has led to competition among industries in the direction of “spending money”。At the same time, the fragmentation of demand accelerates the integration between enterprises，Investment and financing transactions occur frequently，Industry integration continues to advance。We also say that excellent traditional enterprises have entered the "integration period"，Some have decisively entered the large platform of outbound life services through outbound travel，Some financial models developed in the industrial chain。The entire industry sets out with a new attitude，It is bound to take a different path。

“中” refers to the consumption upgrade of the middle class mentioned earlier。In this context，Outbound travel、Leisure travel will continue to be a popular object，Shanghai Disney is expected to open in early 2016，It will also bring another opportunity for the development of theme parks (leisure tourism)。

“国” refers to the reform of state-owned enterprises in the tourism industry。The reform of state-owned enterprises has always been a hot topic this year，The tourism industry has a high proportion of state-owned enterprises，The market value is too small，The expected space for reform is very large。According to our analysis，Seeing the “top-down” reform direction of state-owned enterprise reform，Also put forward the recommendation idea of ​​"small companies and large groups"。With the gradual implementation of state-owned enterprise reform in 2015，The industry will also usher in a wave of thematic investment opportunities。

Moderator:Guests who participated in our in-depth conversation today，Xue Beibei, chief researcher of the tourism industry at Huatai Securities，Xue Beibei，We may talk about tourism today from an industry perspective，It seems that the proportion of China’s middle class is constantly increasing，It seems that tourism consumption is taken seriously, right，But after all, this industry is based on quantitative indicators，How is its growth，Please introduce us。

Xue Beibei:From a quantitative perspective，We see that the entire industry is facing upgrades in two directions，On the one hand, it is the upgrade of a region from domestic tourism to outbound tourism，So we can see the indicator data of the entire outbound travel，The industry’s growth rate last year was 18%，The data released in the first quarter of this year is a growth rate of about 20%，From a historical perspective，This data has maintained rapid growth for nearly 10 years，We judge，According to data from the Tourism Research Institute，Such high growth may continue in the next ten years，From the perspective of leisure travel data，This is an upgrade from sightseeing to leisure，The entire leisure tourism industry is now entering a rapid growth trend，The current market capacity is close to one trillion。So we expect that the entire space will be very large in the future

Moderator:The 18% growth rate of the entire tourism industry should be considered relatively high in the industry

Xue Beibei:Yes

Moderator:For example, let’s take scenic spots as an example，There are actually quite a few scenic spots listed on the market，Many people think: the number of people in scenic spots is increasing，But there is still a ceiling for reception capacity，If the ceiling is reached，Where is the future growth space？Including travel agencies、Hotel，Accommodation capacity is limited，So what do you think of this space？

Xue Beibei:Actually, this stems from two aspects，We think，First，Market for online travel，Including asset-light (subjects) like travel agencies，In terms of investment，Their ROE is higher，Then funds will be more preferred，Second，We can see the concept of Internet+ that everyone has mentioned some time ago，So Internet+ actually changes the channels first and foremost，The second step is to transform the server，The third one will be a transformation of the resource side，Maybe we look back，Take a long look at two to three years，Like you just mentioned，Traditional scenic spots、Hotel type，In fact, hotel big data is also slowly becoming available、Some new business models such as smart scenic spots have emerged，Then there 188bet sports betting app download is still room for investment in the future。

Moderator:Then let’s go back to the market，You may have noticed a phenomenon，From the traditional tourism sector，Travel agency、Hotel、Scenic spots，No matter natural or man-made scenic spots，The stock price performance in the past two years has not exceeded that of online stocks，Or in other words, it is an online travel intermediary service，What does this phenomenon mean?？

Xue Beibei:In fact, I think it can be divided into two major categories: the first category is scenic spots、Hotel，This is the concept of leisure travel we just mentioned，Traditional sightseeing tour，In fact, the monetization model of scenic spots, including hotels, is very single，Tickets only、Accommodation or hotel expenses, etc.，In fact, when we look at leisure travel, the most important thing is the diversification of income，Not only can you collect tickets in a scenic spot，In tourism we say “food, accommodation, travel, shopping and entertainment”，New consumption can appear in every field，Wuzhen is doing very well in this aspect，Whether it’s accommodation、Eating or shopping，All scenic spots are under unified management，This is a new upgrade direction in the future，Another category，Travel agency like the one you just mentioned，The popularity of the entire stock market this year has affected these asset-light travel agency companies，Endogenous growth is limited、Bottlenecked，There are only so many people，The annual reception volume is so large，But it can be extended through extension，By acquisition，Extaxial expansion，To achieve a substantial increase in market share，Mainly in these two directions。

Moderator:When talking about travel, many people think of this sentence-the world is so big，I want to go see it。For travel，Industry growth rate and prospects，We may not have any differences，The key is the specific investment target，We see a lot of disagreement，For example, in the market，Not many companies from online travel，But they all have an increase of 5 to 7 times or even 8 times，But tourism stocks from traditional industries，The trend is relatively sluggish，Can’t say every increase，But it is moving with the general trend，For the next main line of investment，Why did you come out?

Xue Beibei:This will involve a change in everyone’s investment logic for tourism stocks，In the past, everyone’s understanding of tourism stocks was to speculate on the prosperity every year during the peak season，For example, in the second 188bet app half of the year, everyone feels that it is the peak tourist season，Tourism stocks may have relatively large growth，Although this is classifying tourism as a major consumption，But I still invest in it based on the logic of cyclical stocks，But in fact，We think from last year to this year，Why online travel has such a huge increase？The tourism stocks of these two young assets have also experienced amazing growth，In fact, the demand for the tourism industry caused by consumption upgrade is growing rapidly，We think，The tourism industry may be the most resilient to consumption upgrades，On the other hand，We see the technological transformation of the tourism industry by the Internet+，Especially the rise of mobile Internet has made the tourism industry advance、in line、The data after the row can be collected，Provide a good foundation for the entire industry to form a closed loop，From this logic，We think，The tourism industry has gone through the cycle，will grow into a small industry embracing the big era，It may eventually become a big industry。

So from an investment perspective，We think，Judging from the current node，On the one hand, the second half of the year still provides a phased opportunity for rising prosperity，The other aspect，We are in the trend of the industry again，So let’s look at these two together，In fact, the second half of the year is a good opportunity。

Moderator:From configuration，Which type should I configure?？It is configured to rebuild the business model？Or increase assets through mergers and acquisitions？Which type is likely to have the greatest elasticity？

Xue Beibei:We recommend using three main lines to choose，The first one is a new business model，That is, related to online travel，Or it was transformed by Internet technology，Individual stocks that have given birth to new business models，The second category is driven by consumption upgrades, such as outbound travel and leisure travel，Especially since Disney will open in Shanghai next year，It will also trigger the market’s pursuit of related concepts。

Moderator:The pair of large travel agencies，Performance may be greatly improved？

Xue Beibei:Yes，Everyone has it，Including some scenic spots on the East China Line, there will also be relatively large improvements，These can refer to the passenger flow situation at the time of the World Expo，Then the third category is the reform of state-owned enterprises that performed very well today。Tourism is a typical industry with full market competition，But there are many state-owned 188bet online sports betting enterprises，A small company behind the scenes、Such a model of a large group，So we believe that the tourism industry is a key industry in the future of state-owned enterprise reform，We also need to focus on some targets。

Moderator:The three main lines may focus on a certain aspect for the organization，But at the same time, the configuration must be balanced，But for individual investors，I just hope to find the most flexible one，Or the one with the largest expected change in fundamentals，Bringing relatively large profits，Because the scale of your own funds may be relatively small，So the reform of state-owned enterprises、Business model reengineering、Among the three lines for outbound travel，Which should individual investors focus on？

Xue Beibei:For individual investors，I still recommend: new business model，New investment opportunities brought by Internet+。Because these companies will have a future performance improvement from a fundamental point of view，The second one is the leisure tour just mentioned，It is brought about by consumption upgrade，After becoming a shareholder，You can also contribute profits to these listed companies。

Moderator:Just buy a travel stock and go travel

Xue Beibei:Yes，Because the performance of these companies are white horses、Faucet，Relatively guaranteed，What about the reform of state-owned enterprises，My personal judgment，There is a certain opportunity for speculation，You can allocate funds if you have this preference，But it is relatively difficult to track from a fundamental perspective。

Moderator:Now about online travel，Like Ctrip、Where to go，There is also online distribution、Online booking, etc.，The market performance of these is relatively good，But investing in stocks may also have a habitual problem，Investors’ interest in traditional scenic spots、Hotel、The business of travel agencies is relatively familiar，What do you think is the future growth space of this type of company，It is brought about by the transformation of the business model，Still through extensional mergers and acquisitions、Increasing scenic spots will increase income and stock flexibility？

Xue Beibei:I think it’s both，We also wrote a report some time ago: The wind started with the reform of state-owned enterprises but it doesn’t stop there。It can be seen that the reform of state-owned enterprises will actually be a catalyst for innovation in scenic spots，Because it is superimposed on the background of consumption upgrade，The entire consumer consumption structure has undergone relatively big changes，We used to 188bet app download go to scenic spots，It’s “getting in the car and sleeping，Get off the car and take pictures”，But now we go to the scenic spot，For example: leisure、Travel、Vacation、Hot spring、Catering，These are relatively comprehensive needs，Including the smart tourism we mentioned、Travel during off-peak hours、Hope to get better service，With more and more scenic spots in the future，People are traveling more and more，Across the country，Even the world，Scenic spots will also have a sense of branding，Everyone will hear it wherever they go，I will also go there to see: Which scenic spot is this produced by?，Instead of just going to see Huangshan、Traditional scenic spots like Mount Emei。

Moderator:Is that a man-made scenic spot，The opportunities for this type of company are greater than those for natural landscapes？For example, build a real-life entertainment venue in a place with beautiful mountains and clear waters，Performance、Introduction of entertainment and other leisure projects，Then copy？

Xue Beibei:The concept of scenic spots is actually dynamically changing，20 years ago，There may be only one scenic spot in China and that is Beijing，The scenic spots ten years ago were the four famous mountains，Now let’s look at the scenic spots，It will include boutique hotels、Man-made landscape、Hot Springs，Future，If you like，Even a trash can can become a scenic spot，This depends on how to dynamically develop it。