The impact of the epidemic on various industries，Is gradually revealed from the 2020 performance data of listed companies。

UXin Tourism Group Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as UXin Tourism), with outbound tourism business as its pillar，002707.SZ），Having been hit hard in the past year。January 29, 2021，The company released its 2020 performance forecast that has not been audited by an audit agency，Preliminary estimates are that operating income in 2020 will drop by more than 80% year-on-year，Both net profit attributable to the parent company and net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses (hereinafter referred to as deducting non-net profit) turned from profit to loss，The amount of loss is between 1.3 billion yuan and 1.5 billion yuan。

Although Uoxin Travel has joined hands with the duty-free giant to begin the layout of tourism shopping and duty-free businesses，But the specific results are still difficult to estimate。In addition, there is no exact timetable for the restart of outbound travel，There are many unknowns in the prospects of UX Travel。

Comprehensive assessment of the development of the epidemic、After the company’s operating and financial status，Lianhe Credit Rating Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Lianhe Credit Rating) lowered the long-term credit rating and duration bond credit rating of Utrust Travel in December 2020。As ​​of closing on February 8, 2021，The share price of UX Travel is 5.50 yuan，Down 57 from 52-week high.43%。

Uoxin Travel’s stock price trend in the past year (unit: yuan) Data source: Wind

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Public information display，Zhongxin Travel is mainly engaged in tourism wholesale、Integrated Marketing、Integrated Marketing、Tourist destination operations、Tourism industry chain 188bet app services and other businesses，Destination covers Europe、Oceania、Africa、Middle East、America、Asia、Major countries and regions around the world such as the Antarctic and Antarctic，Is one of the largest travel wholesalers in the country。The company was listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in January 2014，It is the first private travel agency listed on the A-share market。

Crossing the 10 billion yuan mark since 2016、After further exceeding 12 billion yuan in 2017，The operating income of Uoxin Travel has started a low growth mode: revenue almost stagnated in 2018，Only a small increase1.18% to 121.2.2 billion yuan；The growth rate in 2019 is also single digits，Only increased by 3.70% to 126.2.2 billion yuan。

The revenue of UX Travel relies heavily on outbound tourism business。It can be seen from the company’s operating income composition in 2019，The total contribution of outbound travel wholesale and outbound travel retail is 89.92% of revenue。The global epidemic in 2020 will undoubtedly give Uoxin Travel a blow。

As shown in its 2020 semi-annual report，Affected by the new coronavirus epidemic，According to the notice of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism and the unified deployment of the Beijing Municipal Culture and Tourism Bureau，Company domestic tour group、Outbound tour groups have stopped sending out groups since January 2020，Suspension of operating group tours and "air tickets + hotel" travel products from January 27, 2020，Resulting in a significant decrease in revenue from various businesses in the first half of 2020。

Among them，The company relies most heavily on outbound travel wholesale、Revenue of outbound travel retail products fell by 78% respectively.81%、81.53%；Domestic tourism and individual product revenue, which accounts for about 5% of revenue, decreased by 61% year-on-year.88%。final，Uxin Travel only achieved operating income of 12 in the first half of 2020.1.7 billion yuan，Down 78 year-on-year.71%；Net profit attributable to parent company is -1.7.6 billion yuan，Decreased by 260 year-on-year.12%；Deduction of non-net profit is -1.800 million yuan，265 year-on-year decrease.01%。

Entering the third quarter，Domestic travel gradually relaxed，But inbound and outbound group tourism is still in a "stalled" state，Uoxin 188bet online sports betting Tourism’s performance continues to deteriorate。The company’s 2020 performance forecast shows，It is expected to achieve operating income of 1.5 billion to 1.7 billion yuan in 2020，Down 86 compared to 2019.53%—88.12%；Net profit loss attributable to parent company is 1.3 billion to 1.5 billion yuan，1994 year-on-year decrease.72%—2286.22%；Deducting non-net profit, the loss is still 1.3 billion to 1.5 billion yuan，2301 year-on-year decrease.96%—2640.72%。

The downturn in outbound tourism business has become the main factor for the decline in Uxin 188bet online sports betting Tourism’s performance。Uoxin Travel stated in its 2020 performance forecast，Affected by the epidemic，Outbound tourism business, which accounts for a high proportion of revenue, has not yet recovered，Have a greater adverse impact on the company’s production and operations，Resulting in a serious decline in revenue in 2020，Serious losses occurred。

At the same time，The operating performance of all subsidiaries mainly engaged in outbound tourism business has declined significantly，And there are no obvious signs of improvement yet，As of the end of December 2020，The total goodwill balance of each subsidiary is 72359.710,000 yuan，It is expected that a large amount of goodwill impairment loss will be incurred。

In addition，All joint-stock companies or investment projects operating outbound tourism business and other joint-stock companies or investment projects whose main business locations are overseas，Business conditions have deteriorated to varying degrees，It is expected that a certain amount of investment losses or impairment losses will occur。

Except the outbound tourism business directly drags down the company’s performance，The impact of the epidemic on the upstream and downstream has also eroded the profits of Uxin Travel。Zhongxin Travel Express，Since the outbreak，Some customers failed to pay business payments to the company as agreed，Some suppliers also failed to return the company’s advance payment or deposit in time，Therefore，It is expected that a certain amount of bad debt provisions will be made。

Zhongxin Tourism 2020 Annual Performance Forecast Data Source: Company Announcement

Uncertain future

Facing Difficulties，Uxin Travel begins to explore business transformation。188bet online sports betting In the objective environment where the new crown epidemic is normalized，The company will focus on tourism, shopping and duty-free businesses in 2020。

February 2020，Uxin Travel signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement with China Duty Free (Group) Co., Ltd.，Planned to share resources、Complementary advantages and business innovation，Work together to create a “tourism + shopping” business cooperation。

March，Uxin Travel signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement with the Hainan Provincial Department of Tourism, Culture, Radio, Television and Sports，Planned to be in the headquarters economy、Integrated innovation of culture and tourism、Inbound and island tourism、Industrial Investment Fund、Comprehensive cooperation in domestic and overseas publicity and promotion, destination marketing and other fields。

September，Controlling shareholder of Zhongxin Travel、The actual controller Feng Bin transferred about 5% of the company's shares to Alibaba (China) Network Technology Co., Ltd.，The latter became the third largest shareholder of UX Travel。Shortly afterwards，There is news that Alibaba will invest in the global duty-free giant Swiss Dufry，The two companies will also form a joint venture in China，Develop China’s duty-free consumption business。

October，Uxin Travel and Wangfujing Duty Free signed a strategic cooperation agreement，The two parties plan to jointly carry out "tourism + shopping" business in the city's duty-free shops and Hainan Free Trade Port。

The above actions undoubtedly bring new imagination space to Zhongxin Travel。But some analysts said，Currently，When will Uoxin Travel’s tax-free and other services be officially launched、How much revenue it can generate is still unclear，And there are already competing companies in the industry that have entered the tax-free field，It is still difficult to estimate how much Uoxin Tourism can share。

New business prospects are not yet clear，There is also great uncertainty in the development of existing business in the future。

Fourth quarter of 2020，The Ministry of Culture and Tourism has successively issued the "Notice on Further Strengthening Epidemic Prevention and Control in Autumn and Winter", "Notice on Further Strengthening Supervision of the Winter Tourism Market", and "Notice on Doing a Good Job in the 188bet online sports betting Cultural and Tourism Holiday Market for the New Year's Day and Spring Festival in 2021" 》，It is clear that travel agencies and online travel companies will not resume inbound and outbound group travel and "air tickets + hotel" business for the time being、Continue to implement the "75%" policy, etc.。

After comprehensive evaluation，December 2020，Lianhe Credit Rating has decided to remove Utrust Travel from the credit rating watch list，Downgrade the long-term credit rating of the company and the credit rating of "Zhongxin Convertible Bonds" from AA to AA-，The company's rating outlook is determined to be negative。Lianhe Credit Rating stated in the credit rating announcement，Due to the ongoing overseas epidemic，Zhongxin Travel’s outbound travel business cannot be carried out，The recovery time cannot be determined，Major adverse impact on its main business；Although the company vigorously expands domestic wholesale and retail business，But domestic travel will resume later、Fierce competition，Small contribution to the company’s operating income and profits，It is difficult to support operating performance and debt solvency in the short term。

Shareholders reduce holdings

For Zhongxin Travel，2020 is an extremely difficult year。During this period，Some important shareholders of the company have reduced their holdings。

May 2020，Director of Zhongxin Travel、Deputy General Manager Han Li made 6 holding reductions through centralized bidding transactions，The total number of shares reduced is 200.850,000 shares，Accounting for 0 of the company’s total share capital.23%。It is reported，Due to misoperation, the number of holdings reduced this time was 8544 more shares than planned。According to relevant announcement，This reduction is to reduce the stock pledge rate。

December of the same year，Guo Hongbin, the second largest shareholder of Uoxin Travel, reduced his holdings through block transactions 1812.540,000 shares，Accounting for 2% of the company’s total share capital。After reduction，Guo Hongbin’s shareholding ratio increased from 9.84% dropped to 7.84%。

And the company’s controlling shareholder、The actual controller Feng Bin also reduced his holdings through bulk transactions in January 2021。Related announcement display，Feng Bin reduced his holdings of unrestricted 188bet app tradable shares to a total of 1812.540,000 shares，Accounting for 2% of the company’s total share capital，Shareholding ratio changed from 24.33% reduced to 22.33%。Press 4.Calculation of the average price of reduction of 01 yuan，The amount of this reduction is about 0.7.3 billion yuan。It is reported，Feng Bin’s reduction in holdings is used to repay early stock pledge financing loans，Reduce stock pledge rate。After this reduction，Feng Bin is still the controlling shareholder of Zhongxin Travel、actual controller，Serves as chairman and general manager of the company。

*Source of this article: Investment Times, author: Huang Fengqing, original labelTitle: "Rating Outlook Negative！Uoxin Tourism revenue is expected to drop by more than 85%  Uncertain prospects for new and old business》。