April 26、27th，Shanghai 188bet game fell sharply by 5 points for two consecutive days.52%、6.85%，Current price 49.6 yuan/share，Market value fell below 100 billion yuan。Only in the past 3 months，The stock price fell by nearly 40%。

Review of the company’s recent experiences，"Cheng Ye Traffic，Baiye traffic”。Under the influence of the special factor of the epidemic，Loss of passenger traffic、The valuation logic of Shanghai 188bet game, which has greatly reduced tax-free income, has been destroyed。and，Other tax-free channels emerged during the epidemic to share the tax-free dividends，The high gross profit the company enjoyed previously may be gone forever。

The reason why the company’s stock price fell sharply in the past two days，The catalyst is what the company’s chairman said at the performance briefing recently，Pudong 188bet game’s previous tax-free bonus is unsustainable。

actually，Shanghai 188bet game expressed this view in the 2020 annual report released a month ago。Earlier，Evening of January 29th，Shanghai 188bet game suddenly announces revision of duty-free agreement，Significant profit transfer to China Free Trade Zone，Without any accident，Shanghai 188bet game suffered immediate performance、Double valuation。Shanghai 188bet game, which once far outperformed its A-share counterparts, reported an annual loss for the first time in its history，The company’s stock price continues to fall by the limit。

Therefore，It’s not just that Shanghai 188bet game’s valuation logic has been seriously shaken，Even since the tax exemption agreement was re-established, it has been a "clear brand"。The main business of Shanghai 188bet game is divided into two parts: aviation business、Non-aviation business。2017，The company’s non-aviation business revenue exceeded aviation business revenue for the first time。Duty-free business is the main source of non-aviation income，And the gross profit margin is higher。2019，Sunrise Shanghai, a subsidiary of CDFG, paid more than 5.2 billion yuan in rent to Shanghai 188bet game，Accounted for nearly 50% of the company’s revenue during the same period。And since 2017，Driven by the high growth of duty-free business，Shanghai 188bet game’s stock price also started high growth，The stock price more than tripled in one and a half years，The highest market value exceeds 160 billion yuan。

“The No. 1 Public Offering Brother” E Fund Manager Zhang Kun once invested heavily in Shanghai 188bet game，He thought before，Shanghai 188bet game is essentially a WeChat account，Put all the infrastructure、After the runway is built，It is a basic platform，All traffic on this platform can be monetized，The form of realization can be business，It can also be an advertisement。

This logic does not take into account the force majeure factor of the epidemic。An unexpected epidemic，Shanghai 188bet game, which accounts for a large proportion of international passenger traffic, suffered heavy losses。Renewal of the duty-free agreement between Shanghai 188bet game and China Duty Free is a “realistic choice”，A compromise made to maintain channel advantages，In fact, it means "how many customers will you give me，How much money will I give you?" logic，Core or traffic。

Including the recently discussed issues of Shanghai 188bet game being impacted by other duty-free channels，Essentially, the supply side encounters the problem of "diversion of traffic"。The air transport industry is greatly affected by policies，Future，The diversion may come from duty-free shops in the city，May come from online tax-free channels，It may also be diverted by other newly built international airports。

Among them，The development of duty-free business in the city has become the latest development trend of the duty-free industry，Many places, including Shanghai, are encouraging the development of duty-free shops in the city。In all major duty-free business sales channels，City duty-free shops are the second-ranked channel type after 188bet game duty-free shops。It is difficult to judge the future impact of city duty-free shops on 188bet game duty-free shops，It depends on the degree of policy preference for different channels，Consumers’ purchasing habits and other factors，Still needs time to verify。

However，Even when valuations seriously fluctuate，The market still has many differences on this stock in recent times。If we return to the origin of the 188bet game company - aviation business，Shanghai 188bet game (Pudong 188bet game) is the 188bet game with the largest international passenger traffic among mainland airports，Located in the economically developed Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration，Strategic positioning as an international aviation hub。Once we get out of the haze of the epidemic，Don’t worry about the passenger flow，Shanghai 188bet game is still the leader based only on the valuation of its main aviation business，This may be the logic why some investors are still optimistic about the company。

Also，“The tax-free dividend is unsustainable” does not mean that the tax-free business will inevitably reduce its share of the company’s business income in the future，Shanghai 188bet game hopes to increase sales by making concessions to China Duty Free，That is, relying on the advantage of scale to continue to consolidate and develop non-aviation business。Of course，It is no longer the same as the high-margin "earning money" model of "sitting on the ground to collect rent"。

Generally，For Shanghai 188bet game，The most important thing is the recovery of passenger flow，This is also a key factor in whether the company can successfully reverse adversity，In the long run, demand recovery is a matter of time。Currently，The global epidemic prevention situation is still severe，It will take time for international routes to truly recover。Also，During the epidemic，Other tax-free channels are rising to share the tax-free dividends，The company’s past high gross profit period due to tax-free dividends may be difficult to replicate。

*this文来Source: Securities Times Network, author: Li Manning, original title: "The halo of duty-free is no longer the same, Shanghai 188bet game may end the "sleeping win"》.