In the fifth phase of Sohu Chuang Jianghu held on the evening of October 22nd，Zheng Qingsheng, partner of Sequoia Capital China Fund, delivered a keynote speech titled "Trying to Understand the Real Operation of the World"，Talk about his views on current entrepreneurship and the Internet market。

Zheng Qingsheng believes that entrepreneurs are the biggest venture investors，If you start a business at the age of 25，Turn 5-10 years into one paragraph，A bullet that can actually be used to start a business in a lifetime，Just 2-3 shots，Every shot fired，It improves personal life experience，But it is also a waste of life resources，For entrepreneurs，Making the choice to start a business is a very important decision。

From the moment we turn on our phones early in the morning, we are surrounded by all kinds of information、Viewpoint，How to not lose yourself in the complicated information，This is what we should pay attention to，Breaking the heroic view of history，Distinguish between certainty and uncertainty in business models，What entrepreneurs need to grasp now。

Breaking the heroic view of history，This is what Zheng Qingsheng especially emphasized: Don’t ask the big guys，Where is the next outlet，No one can answer。

Previously，In the transformation of transaction costs，A large number of corporate structures have also been changed，Zheng Qingsheng thinks，Internet companies are somewhat divided，Giant companies continue to expand as marginal costs decline，But beyond that，Individuals in some companies are getting smaller，Became a union of free people。

According to Zheng Qingsheng，This expression comes from what Marx said: "The future society is a free association"，He thinks it’s the best thing about Uber、Expression of the sharing economic model such as Didi。

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The problem of capital winter，In fact, we already gave a very clear answer in Shen Nanpeng’s speech on the 10th anniversary of Sequoia，There is no winter in the world of redwoods。How to understand this？In fact, there is a detailed explanation in the sharing later，I can tell you briefly here，Because it is inevitable that asset prices will fluctuate throughout the entire investment cycle，Most of the time it reflects market demand，So I think the term winter is not necessarily accurate。

“Try to understand how the world really works”，I actually spent a lot of time choosing this topic today，Because I have listed about five or six topics to share with you，But I really can’t think of a good topic to string them together，So I ended up with such a name that doesn’t seem to make sense，I hope all entrepreneurs can try their best to understand the real operation of the world，I share a few of my main points。

Fire your entrepreneurial bullets

I think a lot of things are business models。For entrepreneurs，Entrepreneurship is a business model，For investors，Investment is another business model，But these two business models are essentially different in their business models。For entrepreneurs，Mr. Shen actually mentioned this point just now，For entrepreneurs，In fact, probability plays a very large role in it。I always thought，In fact, entrepreneurs are the largest venture investors here，You have enjoyed the greatest risks and benefits，At the same time, you will also invest more resources in life。Because for life，If we turn 5-10 years into a period，In fact you will find，Suppose you start your business at an early age of 25，In fact, the bullets you can use to start a business in your life，I said 5-10 years，Maybe 2-3 shots，Your 2-3 bullets，Every shot fired，It will improve your personal life experience，At the same time，Every shot fired，In fact, it is a waste of your life resources，So for entrepreneurs，Making the choice to start a business is indeed a very important decision。I also agree with what Mr. Shen just said，Actually, we don’t need to start a 188bet app download business，Join a startup company，Let’s participate in this great era together，This is also a good manifestation of entrepreneurial spirit。

Don’t let complicated information mislead us

Now the entire media、Include information，Actually very rich，Especially when turning on the phone，We will always be in different perspectives、Surrounded by different information，I also have this experience，If you read all the articles pushed by others on your phone every day, including the articles you have seen，You will find that you have actually become someone else’s idea、A playground for other people’s ideas and ideas，It’s all in my head，What are your unique thoughts?，It didn’t actually show up。

And in these complicated information，I think there are two points that should be paid special attention to，Easy to mislead us。

First，This is human nature，We always like some more dramatic expressions，So there is a lot of information, such as success and failure、Full of conspiracy theories、Full of twists and turns、Ups and downs，Written like a novel，There is a lot of information like this around us。But，How does the world really work？In fact, we also have enough information to understand、Go to compare、Go to analysis，But in daily life I find that we，including myself，The time for doing this is actually very, very little。In such dramatic expression，I think it is particularly worth mentioning，I call it the heroic view of history，History is created by heroes，This is actually true in any troubled times，The heroic view of history is particularly outstanding。Because in today’s complicated competitive landscape of China’s Internet，In fact, it is related to the Spring and Autumn Period and the Warring States Period，It is very similar to the warlord melee in the early Republic of China，Because its competitive landscape is very complex。So if you look at that period of history，Maybe you have a clear understanding of today’s competitive landscape。In such a competitive environment，We can easily fall into，History is created by heroes。

Especially when I attend many sharing sessions，I always get asked about this topic，It’s you as the investor，Predict where the next trend will be，Or as an investor, you can make a prediction，What should we do next，In fact, such a question is a reflection of the heroic view of history，You don’t just ask me，Ask other BAT bosses，Or ask some opinion leaders in the industry，Where is the next outlet，Where is the next business model，Actually, I think everyone is essentially unable to answer，If he can answer he is Superman、He is the hero。In other words，For example, I know where the next outlet is，The first thing I did，There must be several teams working together，Because I have surpassed the understanding of the times。

So when we usually read，We must break the heroic view of history，Let’s look at these successful people now，Actually, you go back to the early days of his business，He has always made such difficult decisions，Step by step efforts in this dynamic balance，And then finally move towards success。So everyone must pay attention to this，So no one can predict the future，So we must get the most first-hand information，Able to do the most front-line interviews，Only then can you make a better decision。

Second，In the process of starting our business，I have been communicating with entrepreneurs，Actually, I like to ask entrepreneurs a question，Can you tell me what uncertainty is in your business model？What exactly are you betting on?？I will also share it with him，I think what in your business model tends to be determined，What tends to be uncertain，What am I betting on。As an early to mid-stage investor，I must know clearly which departments，For example, the team is very good，This is for sure，You told me several business models，ABC here，Maybe A and B I think are absolutely true，But C，I think it is actually useless for you to tell me and for me to argue，Because C may be a conjecture。But unfortunately，During my communication with entrepreneurs，In fact, many entrepreneurs said the same to my answer，I think everything is certain，The market is very good、The team is great、The business model 188bet sports betting app download is correct。But it actually reflects that everyone does not understand this uncertainty。I always thought，A good business model，In fact, you have to separate the deterministic part and the uncertain part very appropriately，You tell investors clearly，Let investors know，We as venture capitalists，What kind of risks do we take，I think this is very important。

Common sense is more important than knowledge

I want to share with you a word called "common sense"。Because many places say that common sense is more relevant than knowledge，I strongly agree with this view。But what is common sense？We will also find out when talking about many points of view，When we ask，What is a good investment、What is a good life、What is a good life？Includes these positive questions，In fact, it is very difficult to answer in many cases，But think about it the other way around，I can tell you，What is definitely not good，The same goes for common sense，What is common sense？Everyone thinks that common sense is so important，I have never found a good expression。

Later I saw a joke，I think this joke is the best sharing of common sense I have ever seen，I can’t remember the details，I changed it slightly in a way that makes it easier for me to remember。Says there is a boss and two guys，This boss，Because we are in the countryside，So he wants to do fruit business，He wants to send his boy A to the market to buy some apples，Maybe that apple cost 2 yuan when I bought it，It costs 5 yuan to sell in this village，He can earn 3 yuan difference。He sent the first guy，Tell me to go see if there are any apples in the market，The first guy went to the market to take a look，No apple，This is the KPI given by the boss，He came back to report to his boss，No apple，He completed the task。Send the second guy immediately，Do the same thing，Tell me to see if there are any apples。This guy is back，Said there are no apples for sale in this market，But I found pears being sold next to it，The purchase price of this pear is 1.5 yuan，We sell it for 5 yuan，You can still earn more。The boss said，Very good，We can sell pears。Guy said，I have negotiated all the terms，Truck parked outside the door，A box of pears on the truck，I told the pear seller，Let’s try it，If it’s good, take off a hundred pounds，The boss unloaded a hundred pounds。This reflects what common sense is，Specific common sense A and common sense B are incomparable，Whether we start a business or complete a job in someone else’s company，This kind of originality is very important，I think this is a very good example of common sense。

Another example that I find very interesting，Everyone add each other on WeChat，Every time I communicate with you，After the meeting, many friends or entrepreneurs may add me on WeChat，I will observe a very interesting phenomenon，This is also related to common sense。For example, if you add someone else’s WeChat account, how would you add it？The most popular comment I receive from people wanting to add me on WeChat is this，Who am I? Period，Very strange，I don’t know why people send WeChat messages like this，This is a。I once specifically told everyone at the venue，No problem if you add me on WeChat，Scan everyone，But you must explain why you added me on WeChat，What do you do。There are still a lot of people saying who I am，Then another situation was mentioned，I am so and so from ABC Company，But I don’t know what ABC Company is either。I later observed this situation recurring，It means that when everyone is doing business together，For example, let’s say you think for consumers、Thinking for investors，I never thought about it when you added WeChat，For example, if I add your WeChat account，I am so-and-so from so-and-so，Actually, it’s hard for you to tell who I am，I don’t know if I should change you，I often come across emails saying I have a project, do you want to see it，Or I said on WeChat that I have a financial project, do you want to see it，No other information。Let me tell you this，Can be seen from a small angle，Just what is common sense，You should also think in my shoes，This is a very, very small thing。

Try to use general concepts to describe your thoughts

Let me share with you my understanding 188bet app of definitions and concepts，Because in our entrepreneurial era，In fact, we want to facilitate communication，Because information flows too fast，There are so many things we need to discuss，It is very interesting in terms of concept，There are a lot of new concepts being generated，There are also a lot of concepts being asked。For example, the current capital winter，It is often said that winter is coming，Will you still invest in O2O？I often ask my people back，Can you define what O2O is?？In the past 12 months or even 24 months，We have repeatedly mentioned the concept of O2O，What is O2O，Since the first day the internet was invented，You advertise、E-commerce diversion，To the restaurant，Which one is not？Are you asking me about this mode?，I will not invest in most Internet companies，That’s obviously not the case。

How do we subdivide the concept in the concept，How to truly and accurately express our entrepreneurial model，I think it is very important。Like this O2O concept，I think it can be divided into many types at least，There is real O2O in O2O，Online to offline，Diversion，Including forming a closed loop，There are also C2C ones，There are also C2B2C ones，In fact, the modes are very diverse。In C2C，We think the more classic Uber model，But we will find out，In fact, there are many variant models in subsequent entrepreneurship，For example, in medical care，If we do C2C，Finding it difficult to bypass B，Because B has a large capital investment，It’s the hospital，Hospitals must make gross profits。Also found in fitness，It’s also hard to get around the gym，Because he also wants to earn gross profit，Only in line with business rules。We don’t understand it in many of the concepts we take for granted，You understand the concepts one by one、Take it apart one by one and deduce it，I think this is very helpful for our thinking。

I would like to say a little more about the concept，Conceptually, I think we must always follow a basic thinking principle，What is this principle？That is to say, conceptually we should only decrease but not increase，That is, if we can use the original concept for analysis，Analyze based on the original analysis framework，Let’s not add concepts，I remember this is called the razor principle in physics，Can’t remember the specific name，This concept is very important，Because for me, I have been working in the Internet and investment for more than 10 years，For me, the methodology of the Internet has been deeply imprinted on my mind，Follow the concept I just mentioned, only decrease but not increase。In fact, I will find out，After the Internet fully penetrates into the consumer industry，In fact, the concept of the Internet is exactly the same as the concept of offline，Now I am looking at offline stores，I don’t know how others analyze offline stores、Offline retail，For me，Same，Your store is next to the street，You have a traffic problem，Why we need to buy a better location as a shop，Because it has better traffic，How many people entered the store，That’s the conversion rate，Last converted into purchase，In fact, these concepts are completely interlinked。Why do we use similar concepts？Because when you know the similar concepts，In fact, the essence of business is a set of logic for you，Instead of two sets of logic。I always thought，In the next step, the Internet will profoundly change the face of cities，It is actually not easy to find a point of view like this in two sets of logic or two systems of thinking，Because you have always used offline thinking and logic to think offline，Use online thinking online，In fact, it is not easy for you to have some thoughts that I think are subtle clues to predict the future。

Following what I just said,Why does online change the appearance of offline cities？Because of all places that can divert water，In fact, it is all completed by APP or online，Drive offline to the street，This meaning begins to fade。So I think that there are a large number of service-type entities in this kind of e-commerce，Not an e-commerce company，It’s a shop，He will actually step back，Leave the busiest streets，Leave the most crowded places，Because your acquisition cost on the Internet will be 188bet sports betting app download low enough，Maybe not now，Because the cost of obtaining the Internet is now high enough，Will retreat to the back。I will ask，The most prosperous area on the first line，The place with the largest flow of people，What will be occupied?？If we go see it now，For example, developed Western countries，We even looked at the flow of people in the largest and most prosperous city in China，We see experiential service stores slowly taking over the streets，All streets will be renovated，I have other views on street changes，Do not expand here。I still emphasize what I just said，Be sure to use as few concepts as possible to describe，Try to use general concepts to describe your thoughts，In this way you will find that it is easy to connect your different ideas together。This is a statement about the concept。

The internal and external revolution of the Internet, seeking common ground while reserving differences

Because the views just mentioned may be relatively pragmatic，I will also share with you my basic views on the market，I summarize my views into four words，It is also convenient for me to express，I often fail to remember every time I share it with you，These four words are called "inside and outside、Similarities and differences”，I think the entire Internet is a revolution，From the beginning of the Internet to now，Actually, the revolution is divided into two parts，One is guilty、One is foreign。What is guilt？There are two types inside，The first is our cognitive model，The second is our behavior pattern，This is what we call guilt。What is cognitive method？Cognitive methods such as when we were in the original，It’s hard for us to imagine that we like the expression waterfall。There are still contents，For example, it is hard to imagine that we would use search engines so frequently，This is all guilt。What about the behavior pattern？Example，For example, we found in the entire O2O subsidy war，In fact, the most important premise of the subsidy war，That is, what percentage of subsidies can profoundly change our behavior patterns，It turns out that I might go buy something on the street，Buy online now。So in this type of entrepreneurship we will find，In fact, its risk is relatively high，Because in reality we don’t know how people’s cognitive styles and behavioral patterns will change，We just have an idea，I subsidize this、Maybe it will change if I do this。Actually, I always thought，Internet entrepreneurship in this area has become a relatively complex experiment in anthropology and sociology，It’s just that we don’t think so，So many VCs、So many entrepreneurs，One after another I tried this thing，Some things you will find are right，Something is not right。

There is another example，For example, when we hear many entrepreneurial stories，Can talk about smart home，I won’t tell you what it is，When say you get home，You said "curtains，ON”，The curtains are open。But let’s think about such a behavioral pattern. Is it necessarily true?？For example, when I enter the house，The curtains in my home are probably no longer than 10 meters，Then why don’t I go over and open it？This is a very interesting topic。I can expand it a little，We can see it in the 1980s or early 1990s，What kind of clothes do they wear in all the science fiction movies we see？They will wear tights，Silver glitter，In a very smooth room，There is nothing in this room，What’s the big screen，Science fiction movies at that time were such an imagination。But we have passed 20 years today，Our science fiction film today we will find out，In addition to our today’s science fiction films, they use a variety of advanced instruments，We will find that its basic life is no different from today，I think this is a filmmaker，Don’t know why they could think of this，This point is very important，Actual human behavior patterns do not require such drastic changes at many micro levels，Why do you have to wear a silver tights when you use that instrument，I think this is a very strange thing。

The first type of entrepreneurship in this case，Cognitive model and behavioral model are the most difficult ones，I think this is your insight into human nature，There is basically no way to explain this，Tell me，I can only classify it as undeterminable，We believe 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino that the creation of apples is also a profound insight into human behavior patterns，There is no way to predict this。Another piece，Entrepreneurship direction with relatively low risk，I call it foreign，Externality comes from information communication and transaction costs。Our entire Internet is actually created，Including offline logistics，Profoundly surrounding these two points，First，You know what you are going to do，Information communication，Second，You get it done，It is the transaction cost，This has actually profoundly changed the way people in our society connect with each other，Not only changed the way we communicate，We can use chat tools in all aspects，And it also changes our psychological state，Because we all have this experience，While you are on the phone、When you communicate face to face、When you are using IM，The way you talk is different，Your mantra is even different，Profoundly changed the way we communicate。

Another point，In the face of transaction costs，In fact, a large number of corporate structures have also been changed，Because it turns out that it is said in the theory of enterprises，Margin of this enterprise，He has limits，When marginal cost equals marginal revenue，The enterprise cannot expand，If it expands, it will basically become a crowded enterprise。Today we can see，On the one hand, Internet companies want to become bigger and want to become bigger，Because marginal costs continue to decline、Marginal revenue continues to rise。Second，Companies that appear to be getting smaller keep getting smaller，Became a union of free people，I particularly like this expression，This expression was said by Marx，Marx said that "the future society will be a free association"，I think this is the best way to express the Uber model、Expression about Didi Chuxing。In this direction，I think the business model is relatively easy to demonstrate，This is what I mean inside and outside。

What are similarities and differences?The first is differentiation，What a great era we are in，This is different，We think that after the Internet，Chinese entrepreneurs have gained greater space for entrepreneurship，We are all committed to an era called innovation，This is a point of difference，We think it is different from history。But we are in such a different point of difference than in history，We are always anxious，Because we are just like Mr. Shen said，We have been worried，Is this game over?，These giants are so big。Actually when I used Google for the first time，Even earlier，I was using these Microsoft products，Run out，And then Microsoft had another plan，When these are launched，I think Microsoft cannot be subverted，This world belongs to Microsoft。Later when Google appeared，Later I discovered that Google does email、Operating system，I feel like the world has been taken over by Google。Later generations of entrepreneurs created increasingly great companies，Actually, you stretched the time curve long enough，Later I found that it helps to relieve your anxiety when you look at long-term trends，You think history is over，If you look at it in a hundred years。Teacher Wu Xiaobo’s book says，He summarized the innovations of that year，I watched it and it was very exciting，No less than today。What’s the difference？At that time you found out from the radio、Plastic、Rubber、Aircraft、TV，Including electronic components，About 30 years there，It was also invented by concentration like an explosion，At that time, it was equally thrilling。For a while, I specifically studied who paid for these inventions，I also want to gain some sense of presence，Because history actually remembers entrepreneurs，Usually don’t remember who gave the money。

Another touching place for everyone，At this year’s 10th anniversary meeting of Sequoia China，At that time, I listened to entrepreneurs like Mr. Shen and some investors giving us speeches in the audience，I was on the stage flipping through our brochure，It is a journal，There are many introductions of companies and entrepreneurs in this journal，A very thick book，At that time, I looked at our company page by page，About when I turned to the last page，188bet online sports betting The last page is blank，The last page has two words written in English，I was very emotional，When I finished browsing about 300 companies，He told me，This has just begun。This came to me some time ago，Why share this long-term trend last，I actually shared this before，I specially explain the long-term trend in detail，The time relationship is not expanded today。But I do think，Today we see so many successful big companies，So many successful business models，In fact, everything has just begun。For China，For a country like China, the efficiency of our channels needs to be greatly improved，We still don’t have these high-quality products made in China、Brand、Service、Content，In such an era, it is actually just beginning。Later I thought about something，“There is no end to innovation，Evolution never ends”，These two sentences are also given to everyone。Thank you！