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Author of this article: China Securities Network 2016-02-09
In 2016, China’s economy entered a supply-side reform-centered operating environment,From the perspective of the tourism industry, which is dominated by the service industry,It is possible to enter a stage of steady growth in operating performance,For investment allocation,Select performance growth,Company investment with obvious characteristics of scenic spots has a certain basis for industry prosperity characteristics。
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Entering 2016,my country’s economic structural transformation will be clearly reflected。From the perspective of traditional industries,I’m afraid this year will still be a painful stage of transformation。For example, the latest information from the Haitong Securities Research Institute shows that the current four major overcapacity industries (coal、Steel、Non-ferrous and cement)’s existing interest-bearing liabilities amount to 5.4 trillion,Among them bank loans 2.8 trillion, Bond 1.6 trillion,Trust and other non-standard products are about 1 trillion。From the perspective of industry development,The author’s research believes,As a service industry, the tourism industry has a high probability of maintaining steady growth。

Figure 1: Tourism Industry Relationship and Supply and Demand Composition

Note: The data comes from WIND Information Jiuding Desheng According to the National Tourism Administration’s preliminary calculation: According to the preliminary calculation,188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino In 2015, my country received more than 4.1 billion domestic and foreign tourists,Total tourism revenue reaches 4.13 trillion yuan。The number of Chinese citizens traveling abroad reached 1.200 million visitors,Tourism spends 104.5 billion US dollars,YoY growth of 12% and 16% respectively.7%。The direct contribution of tourism to the national GDP throughout the year is 3.32 trillion yuan,4% of total GDP.88%;Comprehensive contribution is 7.34 trillion yuan,10% of total GDP.8%。Tourism directly and indirectly employs 79.11 million people,Accounting for 10% of the total employed population in the country.2%;At the same time,Our research found,National Tourism Administration related estimates: 2016,my country’s domestic tourism revenue is expected to reach 3.8 trillion yuan,11% increase;International tourism revenue 121 billion US dollars,Growth 6.5%;Estimated total tourism revenue 4.55 trillion yuan,10% increase。Estimated domestic travel 43.800 million visitors,Growth 9.5%;Travel entry and exit 2.6.3 billion people,Growth 5%。Tourism investment reaches 1.2 trillion yuan,20% year-on-year increase。

Figure 2: Tourism industry industry chain

Note: The data comes from WIND Information Jiuding Desheng from the perspective of tourism investment, Significant increase in tourism investment,According to the latest data from the National Tourism Administration: 2015,my country’s tourism investment continues to grow strongly,Completed investment of 1,007.2 billion yuan throughout the year,42% year-on-year increase,The growth rate increased by 10 percentage points compared with last year,Breaking through the trillion yuan mark for the first time in history。Tourism has become a catalyst for economic growth、An important driving 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino force for expanding consumer supply。Analysis,On the one hand, investment improves the quantity and quality of tourism product supply,Ensuring the growth of the tourism industry;On the other hand, it promotes the opening of the market value space of the secondary market target。The superposition of two factors,Resulting in the tourism industry’s growth this year always ranking among the top in the stock market。From the perspective of tourism-related listed companies,Tourism investment and rule design are also constantly reflected,For example, A-share listed company Emeishan established a smart tourism subsidiary,Business scope includes travel consulting、Cultural and artistic exchange、Travel handicraft exchange、Performing、 Literary creation and performance、Art performance venue、Travel and sightseeing services、Manufacturing and sales of tourism products、Copyright Services、Theatre Services、Catering、Property management, etc.,In the future, it can adapt to the supporting construction of new leisure and vacation tourism projects around the scenic area;The establishment of a subsidiary will effectively promote the construction of the "Greater Emei" smart tourism cultural creative industry park。The total investment in the park is 1.2 billion yuan,An area of ​​200 acres,Total construction area 200,000 square meters,Will include the "Great Emei" smart tourism functional area、Global Smart Tourism Park、Three major parts of the cultural performing arts and interactive entertainment park,It is expected to receive 2 million tourists every year,It will effectively complement Mount Emei Natural Scenic Area。At the same time,Our research found, Recent announcement from Lijiang Tourism Company,The company’s number in 2012 is no less than 14.88 yuan/share non-public 188bet app offering stock 5241.930,000 shares,Raised funds 7.800 million yuan。Of which 4653.90,000 yuan for the construction of the Tea Horse Road Benzilan boutique hotel project,The company is a leading tourism enterprise in northwest Yunnan,The tourism and entertainment business continues to bring considerable income to the company,The tourism ecosystem in Lijiang and the Greater Shangri-La region is gradually forming,Highlighted performance flexibility。

Figure 3: World Tourism Organization’s relationship between tourism and GDP development

Note: The data comes from WIND Information Jiuding Desheng from the perspective of our country,On the one hand,my country’s tourism market is very broad,On the other hand,The widespread existence of uneven regional economic development and urban-rural dual structure,Especially between different provinces,The gap in per capita income levels in different regions within the same province,Affected by factors such as imperfect social security,my country’s tourism development stage lags behind by about one stage compared with GDP per capita。In other words,Considering that my country’s per capita GDP exceeded US$5,000 in 2011,Our country is currently in the stage of gradual transition from leisure travel to vacation travel。Leisure tourism in developed areas is developing rapidly,The rising trend of vacation travel,The central and western regions still show a trend of gradually transitioning from sightseeing tours to leisure tours。January 29, 2016,National Tourism Work Conference held in Haikou, Li Jin, Director of the National Tourism Administration, made a speech titled "From Scenic Spot Tourism to Global Tourism",Work report on striving to create a new situation for tourism development in my country during the 188bet sports betting app download 13th Five-Year Plan (hereinafter referred to as the "Report")。The "Report" summarizes the achievements of my country's tourism development in 2015 as the realization of six major changes: First, tourism is changing from the edge of economic construction to the main battlefield of economic construction;Second, tourism is changing from the edge of diplomacy to the forefront of diplomacy;The third is to regulate the tourism market order passively,Take the initiative、Comprehensive management transformation;The fourth is civilized tourism from the tourism industry,Transformation to widespread attention and participation of the whole society;Fifth, the tourism industry is changing from a traditional model to an innovative promotion method;Sixth, tourism is changing from departmental promotion to all-round promotion by the party committee and government。Overall,In 2016, China’s economy entered a supply-side reform-centered operating environment,From the perspective of the tourism industry, which is dominated by the service industry,It is possible to enter a stage of steady growth in operating performance,For investment allocation,Select performance growth,Company investment with obvious characteristics of scenic spots has a certain basis for industry prosperity characteristics。Author’s comprehensive policy、Changes in GDP per capita、Per capita disposable income、Industrial policy and other aspects of research believe,China’s tourism industry in the medium term,There is a high probability that it will maintain steady growth。

[Risk Warning] The overall macroeconomic environment is not good、Differentiation of scenic spots、Some companies invest blindly, etc.。

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