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The main theme of today’s panel seems to be “Capital Winter”，Actually，I don’t feel any “capital winter” at work，Because from my perspective，You can see different perspectives。Entrepreneurship today is full of opportunities，I think the money is enough，But the money does not necessarily come from VC。If your business model does not return to its essence，In other words, it is a to VC business model，Maybe we will encounter the so-called cold winter，But if it is a company that truly operates on business logic，I don’t think it’s winter now。

Looking at the cyclical law through the history of industrial changes，Let us look at the "cold winter" calmly。

Let’s talk about it first，What do I think about winter。I very much agree with what Jianwei from ZhenFund shared about how to look at today’s cold winter theory from a historical perspective。We know that there is a proverb: "Those who do not understand the past，Can’t see the future”。I remember going to Harvard Business School more than ten years ago，A professor at Harvard Business School asked me a particularly pointed question: "Do you have anyone in China who systematically studies industrial history?"？”In so many historical changes in the United States，Someone writes national history，Someone writes the history of mankind，There are also a group of people who specialize in studying industrial history，It is a very important part of business history。Looking at cyclical laws through the history of industrial changes，Let us look at the "cold winter" calmly。

Reminds me of an example: Someone interviewed Buffett at that time: "How do you predict the next stage of the stock market？" Then Buffett said with great confidence: "I have a judgment - it will continue to fluctuate。”In fact, this is an original historical law，Every industry has cycles，Every country has a cycle，Every religion has a cycle，Even our human destiny has cycles。Look at it in the larger historical context，Our current cycle today is a very typical phenomenon。

So back to our micro level，I especially recommend many entrepreneurs here to read this book，This book is called "Business Life Cycle"，Its author is a Jew，called Eddies。What is particularly regrettable，You can’t actually buy any genuine products online today，You can only buy pirated copies or reprinted ones。

This book describes the complete life course of an enterprise like a living body。I have a teacher，He is McKinsey’s first consultant in China。He once said to me: Those who really understand this book，Can provide consultation to any entrepreneur。So I think，Not all entrepreneurs here will go for consultation，But I hope entrepreneurs can see it，The so-called cold winter we are in，It is actually an inevitable historical stage。 

Don’t believe too much in the “moments theory” 

At the same time，Many of our winter theories today come from the investment community。On the one hand, we will hear the investment community say: It seems that we can’t see big tracks recently。In the past ten or even twenty years，A big track will appear every three to 188bet app download five years，But I can’t seem to see it today。Is it possible it’s a live broadcast？It seems that the live broadcast cannot support such a large track。

In fact, let’s not forget that there is another saying，The second half of the Internet has just begun。Then we might as well understand it as: This is the halftime of a wonderful football game。We know all about good games，The second half is full of suspense，The score in the first half usually does not indicate the final result。

Investors also said a lot in our circle of friends，For example, according to "Moments", some institutions did not invest in any of them in the first half of the year。Then we entrepreneurs feel cold，Said: "Because I have to meet with this agency next week。”Some people say that TS’ contract breach rate is getting higher and higher，Some people say that even the famous XX fund has not raised any money recently。I think if we look at these from the perspective of a historical cycle，It is a very normal phenomenon。It’s like a cold or a fever，Just like us, both men and women, we feel irritable for a few days every month，It’s normal。

I see three major historic entrepreneurial opportunities now

Then，Where are the entrepreneurial opportunities behind the cold winter？I can see these three opportunities: 

The first opportunity: the technical moat brought about by vertical cost decline 

I think the first one is technological innovation，It really brings about such a trend。Today more and more companies are beginning to pay attention to their own moats，That is, technical barriers。It turns out that the technical barrier of many startup companies is that they have many models，But you look deeper，There are actually no technical barriers inside it。 

Let me give you an example first，There are actually technological innovation opportunities behind this that I want to share with you。

In the 1980s，There is one of the most authoritative strategic consulting organizations，Frequently used as a joke by current consultants，Because it is too authoritative，It once did a famous consulting project for the American ATMT company at that time，Received 4 million US dollars。There was a very famous conclusion in that consultation report: "You must not enter the field of mobile communications without authorization"，"Because in another 20 years，There are no more than 1 million mobile phones on this planet”。

But，We know in 2000，How many mobile phones are there in the world？In 2000, there were more than 100 million mobile phones in the world。Then why is such an authoritative organization，His prediction can produce such a big deviation？In fact, one of the inspirations it gives us is:

All the so-called experts and institutions shared on the stage are unreliable，He is no better than us entrepreneurs。

Another revelation is，He ignored a very important factor，This was also the source of irritation to ATMT later，When they dug out the report from the dusty drawer and turned to that paragraph，I discovered that this authoritative organization had miscalculated an important parameter when calculating。What is it？He ignored the fact that the costs of a large number of new technologies are falling vertically，Just use a new technology，The cost of commercializing it is getting lower and lower。

This fact is happening on a large scale today，For example，Many of us entrepreneurs should be familiar with it、The famous Gartner curve，We can actually see many opportunities in the Gartner curve every year。No entrepreneur should become a researcher，We are not squatting in our ivory tower to apply for state subsidies，What we should pay more attention to is when a technology begins to enter the application period。

We know iPhone7 has been released again，We begin to miss Steve Jobs again who created 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino this great product。But，When you really dissect Steve Jobs’ entire product design philosophy，You will find，In fact, Steve Jobs, including Apple, did not have much original technology，He is more of a keen user。For example, when Steve Jobs returned to Apple after his comeback，We all know that the first great product he came up with at that time that brought him back to the throne was the iPod。But there is a very core technology in the iPod，It’s an ultra-thin chip，And it has a large storage capacity，This is what Steve Jobs discovered in a Japanese company，This is what Steve Jobs discovered in a Japanese company，Including touch technology as well。 

So，The very important sensitivity that today’s entrepreneurs should possess，Be able to keenly perceive which technologies should enter the application period，How high is the cost of such technology now，This is what we should calculate。If you look at it from this angle，Our current entrepreneurship is better than that of Steve Jobs、So much better than Sony back then。Why？Because there are a lot of new technologies，Its cost is falling vertically，A large number of new technologies will enter the application period，This is actually an opportunity for us entrepreneurs。

So the moat built using core technology is becoming more and more valuable，Because you have core technology，Then you don’t have to worry about not getting money，You can still make money，You can still make money。I met many entrepreneurs，Doesn’t need rounds of financing，His business model does not require going to VC。

This is the first opportunity I want to share with you，We must pay attention to the application period brought by these technologies。Where is this trend？We can analyze it through a famous technology application curve，It was too early for us to take the lead，The most important thing is that we can seize its application period，Conversion process。

As you can see in this picture，The so-called "wind period" that is talked about a lot in our media today，Actually, there is not much chance here。Because the "wind period" is like this in China，Especially in the Chinese market，Once something becomes a trend，Then it will quickly become a bubble，Like AR、Same as VR。

I see that there are more than 70 A-share listed companies in China claiming to be engaged in AR，I looked through the list again and found that many of them were curtain makers last week，It will become AR next week、VR。Everyone comes here，It is also easy to cause a lot of impetuosity and bubbles in this industry。What’s more important is that we entrepreneurs have a keenness，It’s about finding potential，That’s when he started the process of transforming into the application area。

I would like to emphasize again: pay attention to a large number of new technologies that have entered the application period，Especially its cost is rapidly falling vertically。Here I share a small data，Do you know which technology has seen the largest reduction in application costs in the past ten years？It’s genetic technology，It dropped 10000 times。This is the first point I want to make，It’s the opportunities brought by technology。

The second opportunity, national and nationwide consumption upgrade

Everyone talks about the second chance a lot，But not many people can explain it clearly or actually do it，It’s consumption upgrade。

In my past entrepreneurial career，Contacted a large number of traditional entrepreneurs，Many of them are consumer brands，All of them have one characteristic，Just very anxious，What is the reason？Because of unwillingness！They discovered through ten years、The brand accumulated over twenty years has suddenly aged。

Today we can see many opportunities for consumption upgrades，188bet online sports betting The source of the driving force for this upgrade opportunity，This is what we all often see in the media: the rise of China’s huge middle class，There is also the acceleration of our urbanization including the speed of urbanization。A very important angle for us today，We must first understand that upgrading consumption is not about selling luxury goods。

I particularly admire one of my junior fellow students at Tsinghua University, "Li Mingshou"，He is a great Internet influencer。He wrote an article a while ago "What a coincidence，This “consumption upgrade” is different》，I watched it several times，Feeling particularly inspired。He made a particularly clear point in it，It means upgrading consumption, not selling luxury goods。

In the past 20 years, there have been a large number of entrepreneurial opportunities for selling luxury goods in China，But what was the background of that opportunity at the time？Many people hope to prove that they belong to a certain class by buying luxury goods。He wears a big H belt for no other reason，Just to prove that he is rich，His riding in a BMW also proves that he is rich，He has entered a certain class。But today’s consumption upgrade does not require these，But a real emotional connection、Those products that I agree with，It may not require a high price，But it can win more markets。

Let me show you another example，I feel quite surprised when I read these news。Avon and Amway were both very important customers in my previous entrepreneurial career。I have to rush to Zhongguancun soon，All the management of Amway (China) want to come to Zhongguancun Entrepreneurship Street to have a discussion with me。The data I saw is China’s cosmetics market、The health care product market is exploding，And entrepreneurial brands are constantly emerging。But let’s look at the giants in this industry，Especially what happened to some foreign brands？Avon begins to withdraw from China one after another，This is a brand with a history of 130 years。

What else？Last time I had a phone call with the leader of Amway (China)，We will have an exchange later in the evening，He said that Amway’s sales in China have stagnated for three consecutive years。This makes me very surprised，Because I see that the market cake is getting bigger。Today’s teenage girls are starting to pay attention to their health，Everyone started putting on makeup，Why Amway’s market share, including sales, is declining？This actually means an opportunity，This opportunity is actually the creation of more local brands and innovations。

The third big opportunity: +Internet

The third entrepreneurial opportunity I saw，is the real “+Internet”。It is said，One of the earliest proposals was written as "+Internet"，I don’t know how to change it to “Internet+” later。But many of the opportunities I see really come from "+Internet"，I will use cases to talk to you，Let me tell you a real case。

This is a very famous local retail brand，Its founder had dinner with me last month，He told me:

“I did something that I really can’t understand，I place a lot of ads on TV shows every year，This advertisement will bring me a sales return of at least ten times the advertising amount。right，I invest 10 million and I have to sell for 100 million，At least it’s worth it。”

But this year he invested 150 million in advertising on a famous point program，He wants to sell one of his health products。Guess how much he sold in the last six months？He sold less than 50 million goods，He just doesn’t understand it。He said, are TV commercials really not that effective?？

Later, when I was having dinner with him, I said: "Aren't you willing to invest it in some emerging online channels？Aren’t you even willing to use 188bet sports betting app download internet celebrities to help you promote?？"Then do you know what he said at that time that particularly surprised me？This is a very famous entrepreneur，He asked me:

“What is an Internet celebrity? How do I find him?”

Because he doesn’t know，He doesn’t know，He doesn’t understand，He has trained many moves on his track over the past 20 years and solidified them。What he wants to do is invest hundreds of millions in advertisements for different TV programs every year，He never thought of giving 10 million to Internet celebrities，I think this is a huge entrepreneurial opportunity。

After we both finished eating，He decided to spend 30 million，Establish an investment fund，He wants to invest at least eight to ten teams to form a new marketing center，And it’s on the periphery，Not inside him，This is an entrepreneurial opportunity。With at least 30 million, he can become an angel for ten companies，These ten companies have customers as soon as they start，There are investors，And it will not affect your development。

What I see behind this is the real “+Internet” opportunity，Why？Because you are looking at a value chain，The value chain tool，Everyone is a strategist，Whoever does market analysis，The most basic thing is to study the value chain。We simply divide it into three segments: the manufacturing end of the product、Design end、Circulation in the middle，To the last client。We will find out in the past nearly ten years，Almost every link makes many traditional enterprises particularly uncomfortable。

It was said at the beginning that “channel is king”，But the channel has changed，It turns out that he spent a lot of advertising money on traditional channels，Let me give you an example:

Mengniu，Mengniu originally spent a lot of money on a channel called Shangchao，You will see a lot of salespeople in supermarkets。But Mengniu is in special pain today，Because Mengniu has launched many brands that he hopes to target the middle class，It’s more expensive。It suddenly discovered that in the channel of supermarkets, no matter how hard his salesmen try，He can’t even see the real customers，Because his target customers do not go to supermarkets。

Who is going shopping？Maybe it’s an aunt at home or an elderly person at home，But that’s not his end user，The salesman couldn’t get to that point after explaining for a long time，The channel has changed。

Give such a small example，The same is true for the cosmetics example I just mentioned，So many traditional companies are thinking about new channels？Just transferred a lot of energy to Taobao、On Tmall，Wechat business suddenly appeared，I was just thinking about thinking about WeChat business and suddenly another Internet celebrity appeared，These are particularly painful for traditional enterprises。

But don’t forget，He has the goods，He has funds，Even he has a past user base，It’s just that he needs to find the bridge again，This is an entrepreneurial opportunity。And these companies also want to understand，Rather than doing a lot of things yourself，Why don’t we do it with everyone today，Then he may be your investor。

Meanwhile，What makes many companies, especially traditional companies, very depressed is that more and more industries are beginning to emphasize user communities，Many traditional companies never understand what a user community is。

I was in our business country last week、Zhongguancun Entrepreneurship Street Incubator received German Volkswagen global executives from Lambeau，They want to know what changes are happening in China’s entrepreneurship。I asked them a question at that time，I asked you how many cars Volkswagen sells in a year？They gave me a number，I said that 188bet online sports betting means you will have so many car owners every year, right？Then let me ask a question，Do you have the opportunity to communicate with these tens of millions of car owners at the same time？Never。

Many traditional industries have never had the opportunity and effort to talk to end users at the same time，This is actually the community we are talking about。This means a lot of opportunities，He needs a new team，Need new technology，The public is like this，BMW is like this，All car manufacturers are like this。

BMW is its 100th anniversary this year，BMW’s strategy is Digital BMW，Ask all BMW management teams or the current core business，Who can explain the Digital BMW strategy clearly，I estimate this proportion is less than 10%，Because many of the strategies it talks about are future strategies，But many existing management teams are based on past working models。Not that they have no value，But some new things must be done by new people，Then this is an entrepreneurial opportunity，Like BMW、public、Big companies like Audi，All need related entrepreneurial enterprises to carry out ecological coordinated development。 

Today，Both segments of traditional industries have been affected by entrepreneurs，So traditional entrepreneurs began to panic，Immediately afterwards, I brought it up again and said that we will have C2M today，Even the entire design end、The manufacturing end must be opened，At this time, many companies began to feel that they should keep trying。So you can often see reports about C2M in the media，Enterprises like Shandong Red Collar are among them。

Actually, no one knows it，I really keep trying，is a state-owned enterprise in China，This central enterprise is called SAIC Group。A few months ago，SAIC originally wanted to do a trial run，Customize a new car for each customer - SUV。Do you know what their internal goals are?？They said, “We will be successful if we reach dozens of units”，He wants to pull a stunt、Marketing，Do you know how many units were ordered in one night?？Nearly one thousand units！Even the boss of SAIC himself didn’t understand why？He said that times are really like this。

I use three examples to illustrate the changes at three points in the value chain，All come from traditional industries，What does this mean?？Explains that entrepreneurs can use their new technology and new resource advantages to collaborate with large companies to start a business，It means there are huge opportunities here。

So I think there is no need for entrepreneurs to be subject to short-term cold winter theory，There is no need to even be affected by the temporary remarks of some VCs。Look, it will take another half a year，We VCs、Our friends may jump up again to tell you about different new hot spots。Just like a pop song，We have a hot spot every few months。But more importantly, we must return to the essence of business，What is the essence of business？This is what I just shared with you:

To take advantage of technology application opportunities；To take advantage of China’s real opportunity to upgrade consumption；To take advantage of many traditional enterprises in China，They are the real rich，They are real investors，They will not be as harsh as many VCs，He doesn’t understand what gambling is either，He doesn’t want to quit in a few years either，Then these may be your entrepreneurial opportunities，Everything may be our growth space。

So an entrepreneur must open his own ideological channel，We must make our products solid，We need to develop our own business model，I feel there is no cold winter，Only more、Better entrepreneurship possibilities。

*This article is reproduced from Huxiu.com.

*Compiled from a speech on the AWS (Amazon Web Services) forum。

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