Based on International Air Transport Association (IATA) estimates，The net profit of the global air transport industry will reach 29.8 billion US dollars in 2017。Total revenue expected to reach $736 billion，Net profit margin 4.1%。This will be the third year in a row (and the third year in aviation history) that each airline’s return on invested capital (7.9%) is higher than the weighted average cost of capital rate (6.9%）。

This figure is compared with the global air transport industry reaching the peak of the economic cycle in 2016, which was US$35.6 billion，Although it decreased by US$5.8 billion，But profits also achieved a soft landing。This also means that 2017 will be the eighth consecutive year of profitability for the aviation industry，Indicates that the industry structure has built the ability to withstand shocks。On average，Every major airline carrying one passenger，7 available.$54 profit。　　

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IATA’s estimate of global air transport industry profits this year，Based on oil price of US$55/barrel (Brent crude oil)，This is 44% lower than the price of crude oil in 2016.$6/barrel (Brent crude oil) increased by $10/barrel。This means that global airline fuel costs will rise to $129 billion，Equivalent to 18 of the total cost.7%，Well below recent peak levels in 2012-2013。

The rise in oil prices is 188bet app expected。But it is worth noting，For global airlines，Oil prices are no longer the determining factor in whether airlines are profitable。

Because of the continuous delivery of new more fuel-efficient aircraft and better operational management levels of airlines，Including more efficient utilization of aircraft assets and increased ancillary revenue，So even if oil prices rise，Airlines can also make profits。

As IATA chief economist Brian Pierce said: "For global airline executives，The past mindset that oil prices determined the success or failure of profitability has changed。Now they are thinking more about how to get better returns，This is a fundamental structural change in their behavior，And this change will continue。Global airlines when oil price is 20 US dollars/barrel，Also suffered losses，Therefore, oil price is no longer a crucial part of airline profitability。”

UK Brent crude oil price from 2014 to 2017 (in US dollars)

Meanwhile，The demand stimulus caused by lower fuel prices will gradually decline in 2017，Passenger demand growth will also slow down to 5.1% (2016 level is 5.9%），Passenger volume is expected to reach nearly 4 billion。The aviation industry’s capacity growth is also expected to slow to 5.6% (2016 level was 6.2%）。Capacity growth will still be higher than demand growth，Thus lowering the global average passenger load factor to 79.8% (2016 level was 80.2%）。

Lower load factors have a negative impact，However, strong global economic growth may offset these adverse effects to a certain extent。2017，Global GDP is expected to increase from 2 in 2016.2% growth to 2.5%，With the changes in the structure of the aviation industry，This may help stabilize freight and passenger revenue。This is a gratifying development trend，Because since 2012，Earnings (in U.S. dollars) are declining every year。

For this year’s freight development prospects，The industry generally shows some optimism。Profit stops falling，Demand recovers steadily (3.5%），Helping freight volume soar from 53.9 million tons in 2016 to a record 55.7 million tons。　　

North American airlines are still the “leaders”

It’s worth noting，There are obvious differences in the financial performance of airlines in various regions。North American airlines remain the “leaders”，Financial performance ranks first among all regions。

2017，North American airlines’ net profit after tax may reach US$18.1 billion，is the highest value in each region，But compared to 2016 levels of $20.3 billion，Still declining slightly。The region’s airlines are also expected to post the strongest net profit margins (8.5%），Every passenger carried，Average acquisition 19.$58 profit。2017，Capacity of major airlines in the region is expected to increase slightly2.6%，Higher than 2.5% demand growth expected。Even as the region faces upward cost pressure，Including increases in fuel prices，However, the steady development momentum will continue to consolidate the profitability of airlines in this region。

Asia Pacific airlines follow，Possible net profit of US$6.3 billion。Compared to 2016 level of $7.3 billion，Decreased，Net profit margin reaches 2.9%。The average revenue per passenger transported is expected to be 4.USD 44。Airline capacity in the region is expected to grow7.6%，Leading by 7.0% demand growth，Slightly excess capacity and fierce market competition，Airlines in the region will still face operational challenges this year。But the good news is the cargo performance of airlines in this region，will improve。

European regional airlines expected in 2017，Net profit of US$5.6 billion，Down from 2016 level of $7.5 billion。Nevertheless，Regional airlines still expected to get 2.9% net profit margin，That is, every passenger transported，Get 5.$65 profit。Airline capacity in the region is expected to grow4.3%，More than 4.0% demand growth expected。Airlines in the region face fierce competition、High costs、High taxes and threats of terrorist attacks。

Particularly worth mentioning are the airlines in the Middle East。Airline development in this region is slowing 188bet app download down，Net profit is expected to reach US$300 million，This is well below the 2016 profit forecast of $900 million。Net profit margin is 0.5%，The average revenue per passenger transported is 1.USD 56，Also with North America、There is a big gap between airlines in Asia Pacific and Europe。Airlines in the region face many challenges，includes strong dollar、Increased airport fees and increasing air traffic congestion in Gulf countries。Airlines in this region may increase their capacity by 10% this year.1%，Higher than 9.0% demand growth。

Latin American airlines expected to earn $200 million in net profits，Slightly lower than 2016 expectations of $300 million。Profit per passenger transported is expected to be 0.USD 76，Net profit margin reaches 0.7%。Capacity growth expected for airlines in the region4.8%，Leading by 4.0% demand growth expected。Although the regional currency and economic outlook has now improved，But the business environment still faces challenges，Such as lack of infrastructure、Taxes remain high，The regulatory burden continues to increase, etc.。

Financial performance of African airlines remains poor。Net losses of airlines in the region reached US$800 million (basically the same as in 2016)。Every passenger transported by an airline in the region，That is, the average loss is 9.USD 97。Capacity expected to grow in 20174.7%，Higher than 4.5% demand growth expected。The region’s sluggish performance is mainly due to the impact of regional conflicts and lower commodity prices。　　

Fare prices will remain stable

For travelers，Fare is a topic of great concern to them；And for airlines，Reasonable fares are also an important part of its revenue management。According to the forecast report recently released by the consulting company Advito，Estimated 2017，Global fares will remain stable。

Advito pointed out，Business class fares will increase by 1%，But most of the economy class fares will remain unchanged，The reason is that even though market demand continues to grow，But oil prices still remain low，This also means that 188bet online sports betting airlines are constantly increasing capacity，Can still maintain profitability。

But it is worth noting，There are also differences in fares between regions around the world。

Business class fares will remain stable in Europe and Latin America，But business class fares are expected to increase by 3% in Asia and the Pacific Southwest。At the same time，Except Europe，Economy class fares on intercontinental flights will decrease slightly。Estimated according to Advito，Economy class fares within Latin America will decrease by about 2%。

For Asia Pacific，Except for the slight increase in fares for some routes and classes，Overall fares will remain stable，This is mainly because although market demand continues to grow and political stability，Excess capacity still allows fares to remain stable。The fares in Asia are mainly determined by China’s leisure travel market demand and India’s market demand，The growth in demand in the Indian aviation market has now become the fastest growing in Asia，The increase in India’s aviation capacity also matches the increase in demand。

Broken down from the fares of several major countries in the Asia-Pacific region: domestic fares，Australia will grow 0.3%，China will grow 1.5%，India will grow 0.5%，Japan remains basically unchanged；International fares，Australia basically unchanged，China will grow 0.8%，India will grow 1.5%，Japan dropped by 0.8%，Singapore down 1%。

In short，IATA estimate，2017，The global average round-trip ticket price is expected to be $351 (in 2015 USD)，63% below 1995 levels。

And the corresponding，2017，Air transport tourism spending is expected to grow 5.1%，To reach $681 billion。The average air freight cost is 1.48 USD/kg (calculated in 2015 USD)，68% below 1995 levels。The value of air freight trade is expected to reach 5.$7 trillion，An increase of 4 from 2015 levels.9%。Air cargo volume accounts for about 35% of the total value of global goods trade。

This is to a certain extent，Also reflects the important role of the air transport industry in stabilizing global connectivity。As Alexandre 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino de Juniac, Chairman and CEO of IATA, said: “Air transport is an industry in urgent need of a high degree of freedom。The safe and efficient flow of goods and passengers around the world is a positive force that promotes world progress and exchange。Success in aviation creates economic opportunities，Consensus to promote globalization，Thus improving people’s lives。”

*This article is reproduced from China Civil Aviation Network.