188bet sports betting app download is doing well in real estate business,Suddenly I don’t want to do it,What is Wang Jianlin planning?

Industrial Investment Author of 188bet sports betting app download article: Xu Bingqing 2017-01-18
The speed of house price appreciation that 188bet sports betting app download relied on before can cover up all problems,But now,All those involved in its “asset-light” thinking,Everyone should be wary of that kind of "general rushing on his way,The optimistic attitude of not chasing little rabbits。

The year before, we were trying to give people a sense of maturity、The image of “steady growth”,188bet sports betting app download changed its style in 2016。

Wang Jianlin did not bet in public、When there is no obvious pressure on the main business,March 2016,188bet sports betting app download’s commercial real estate team suddenly made a big move: residential、Office building、Properties with mainly shops,Full-year sales target reduced by 40%,Only requires 100 billion yuan。

This does not include the increasing number of 188bet sports betting app download Plazas under construction、As the salable area continues to increase - the sales indicators in the next few years do not require growth,This is the same number。188bet sports betting app download’s slogan is “asset-light”。

Then it’s mid-year,188bet sports betting app download Commercial (mainly responsible for the group’s commercial real estate business), which has been listed in Hong Kong for less than a year, announced its privatization,The reason is "the market valuation is too low"。Listed at HK per share that year、Buy back now at HKD 48 per share。Other companies usually take more than a year to complete the complete set of procedures,188bet sports betting app download only took half a year。

The next step is the last three months of the end of the year,188bet sports betting app download and CITIC Trust、Minsheng Trust、R&F Group and other companies signed investment contracts totaling 105 billion yuan in one go,Announcement of joint development of 188bet sports betting app download Plaza project,30 delivered per year for the next three years。plus self-operated 188bet sports betting app download Plaza,A staggering 50 openings per year。

It took less than ten months,Wang Jianlin’s total assets reached 796.1 billion yuan、A behemoth with annual revenue of 255 billion yuan transformed into an "asset-light" company,At 188bet sports betting app download’s annual work report meeting on January 14,He has declared that this transformation strategy is "basically successful"。

Even 188bet sports betting app download said it wants to be “asset-light”,Is there something wrong with their best land??

2016,188bet sports betting app download has opened 50 188bet sports betting app download Plazas this year,Reached the highest peak in the past ten years。21 of them are mentioned above、Projects "co-developed" with others。Contracts for these projects were signed at the end of 2014,In the past, mortgage was required、Debt,Those 188bet sports betting app download Plazas can only be built across the country,I was suddenly considered “asset-light”。

Use other people’s money to buy land and build buildings、Investment Management,The rent in later operations will be divided into proportions,This "light asset" model is in the hotel industry,In fact, 188bet sports betting app download is a very mature style of play:

In those chain hotels across the country,By Hanting、Home Inns and other brands have very few self-owned stores。At a time when the industry is developing rapidly,Their requirements for franchisees are not high: 188bet sports betting app download is best to have land in a good location in the city、There is a building,If not,188bet sports betting app download’s okay if you have money。

The benefits of doing this are obvious: the pressure on the capital side is reduced、The risk of acquiring land has also been reduced,188bet sports betting app download’s penetration across the country has become stronger。But it really doesn’t look like 188bet sports betting app download’s style。

To know,Just a few years ago,Measuring the capabilities of a real estate company in China,Whether it is residential or commercial,Ability to obtain land and land reserves,Still the two most important indicators。Ability to obtain land,It has always been considered as 188bet sports betting app download’s core advantage—not to mention the extremely cheap price,I got it very quickly,Can be seamlessly connected with later construction。

Jiuquan 188bet sports betting app download Plaza under construction。Rely on good government relations,188bet sports betting app download can achieve the rare feat of “starting construction immediately after acquiring the land”,Further shortened the construction period

Data released from 188bet sports betting app download’s annual work meeting,Also see this:

In the past five years,The property area held by 188bet sports betting app download Commercial can guarantee an increase of more than 20% every year,At the end of 2016, it had reached 32.33 million square meters;If calculated based on the standard configuration of a 188bet sports betting app download Plaza of 150,000 square meters,Mid 2015,The group’s total land reserves are enough to rebuild 550 188bet sports betting app download Plazas,Average four each、Fifth-tier cities can all be divided into 2。

The matter of the land of Danad,The ceiling is also obvious: no matter where in the country,Land prices are getting higher and higher,A good player like Lian 188bet sports betting app download,An average of one thousand three square meters of land、Four hundred dollars to win;Large-scale construction in the previous seven or eight years,This also makes 188bet sports betting app download’s current main position shift to third-tier cities,Even lower line。

For 188bet sports betting app download Plaza, which includes shopping malls、cinema、KTV、Children’s Center、SOHO Residential、Affiliated Commercial Street,Even a hotel、Theme Park、In terms of large-scale complexes of sports venues,Appear in these cities,Basically equivalent to rebuilding a new city center,Even a new city。

Who will the project be sold to after 188bet sports betting app download is completed? Another question.

In Xishuangbanna,The situation seen by Curiosity Daily is: 188bet sports betting app download relies on its own efforts,A new tourist area was built on the outskirts of this traditional tourist city。Except for large theme parks,The core of the project is still the standardized 188bet sports betting app download Plaza。The local permanent population is only about 1.16 million,Life、Work is still concentrated in the old city,No matter how enthusiastic you are about new things,It is difficult to support such a huge project。

Rendering of 188bet sports betting app download Xishuangbanna Resort

If you don’t want to invest huge amounts of money in your hands、Become an existing property,We can only think of foreigners and tourists - 188bet sports betting app download following article,We will also mention the concept of travel and vacation, which seems to be becoming more and more important,The close relationship with the real estate business。

But anyway,In the past, the ability to acquire land was the key to industry competitiveness,Suddenly became a burden to 188bet sports betting app download。Outsiders tend to think of the solution as simple: don’t take the land、Just reduce the stress。But for a system as sophisticated as 188bet sports betting app download、For a company that has been running smoothly on the fast lane,The most critical department suddenly stopped working,The risk contained here is even greater。

Before talking about the transformation of "asset-light",It may also depend on how 188bet sports betting app download used money before

14 years,188bet sports betting app download has built 181 188bet sports betting app download Plazas across China,But the development speed is uneven。Until 2009,The company has gradually found the rhythm of high-speed operation:

From that year,188bet sports betting app download starts no less than 17 new 188bet sports betting app download Plaza projects every year,A typical project only takes 22 - 24 months to complete,Staffing is only half of other developers’ projects of the same size。

This is called "188bet sports betting app download Speed",It has also been considered to be able to leave behind its peers、Key reasons for rapid expansion across the country。

On the other hand is,Operating so many 188bet sports betting app download Plaza projects at the same time,Requires very strong cash flow and financing capabilities。In addition to relying on the group’s cash reserves,Bank loan and property pre-sale,Became the source of more than 60% of the development funds for a 188bet sports betting app download Plaza。The collateral 188bet sports betting app download gave to the bank when taking out a loan,Still completed one by one、188bet sports betting app download Plaza is considered to have room for appreciation。

188bet sports betting app download Commercial’s capital flow model. Picture from Caijing.com

Compared to faster refund、And for residential real estate developers who have benefited from the rapid growth of housing prices,188bet sports betting app download, which focuses on commercial real estate, wants to make up for these arrears,More difficult。Mid 2015,188bet sports betting app download Commercial has mortgaged nearly 80% of its investment properties,Only about 60 billion yuan has not been mortgaged。The funds obtained from the mortgage,We are also unable to support the construction of so many 188bet sports betting app download Plazas。

188bet sports betting app download’s well-known “sale, support and rent” model,It seems that it can alleviate some of the financial pressure: move the office building in advance、Shops and residences sold,You can indeed get your money back quickly。But the bad thing is,188bet sports betting app download bets on the right pace of commercial real estate development,Another encounter with the destocking pressure brought about by the large-scale development of third- and fourth-tier cities。

188bet sports betting app download Commercial’s prospectus and interim report show,The company’s inventory turnover rate in 2013 was 0.55;In the first half of 2015, it became 0.11。Even according to the destocking speed in the first half of 2015,It will take 188bet sports betting app download nearly 10 years to sell out all its assets,Only 2 years or so in 2013。

What’s more important,Whether it is a bank or a property investor,No longer believe that 188bet sports betting app download can be like before,Use a commercial complex like 188bet sports betting app download Plaza,can drive the business rhythm of a small and medium-sized city、Thus realizing the appreciation of land and property。

Film and TV、Travel、Sports are booming,It can also be considered part of 188bet sports betting app download’s success in its “asset-light” transformation?

In the blueprint drawn by Wang Jianlin,From now on,This leader in commercial real estate,will lead a group of developers with deep pockets but no understanding of management,Continue to conquer cities and territories across the country;And 188bet sports betting app download herself,You can use the high-cost land acquisition funds in the past,Use in a more appropriate place,For example, movies、Travel、Sports,As well as overseas business and other areas that urgently need money。

In the film and television industry,188bet sports betting app download has already used this method,A situation in which upstream and downstream take all is quickly established,Leveraging the popularity of the entire industry,Movies are also expected to become more than just real estate、Another important business that can support 188bet sports betting app download’s high valuation。

But,The screen on which 188bet sports betting app download’s transformation relies、Attractions and Sports Grounds,After all, which one is not real estate business?

Like a movie、New business formats such as tourism and sports,188bet sports betting app download was incorporated into the framework of the "Cultural Group"。2016,The revenue from this part of the business accounts for more than 1/4 of the group’s revenue,Good momentum。

Just like 188bet sports betting app download Plaza is the core of 188bet sports betting app download’s business,The core of 188bet sports betting app download Culture,It is a cinema closely related to offline。188bet sports betting app download’s cinemas have almost never existed independently from 188bet sports betting app download Plaza。Outside the box office,A listed 188bet sports betting app download Cinema Company,They are also happy to disclose their screen growth numbers every time in their financial reports:

2005-2015,188bet sports betting app download has a total of 2,100 screens across the country,And in the last year,This number increases by 1391 pieces。

Of course,188bet sports betting app download is also happy to mention the Legendary Pictures they acquired abroad、 DCP and other content production companies,Content platform + sales channel like Mtime.com,And integrated marketing companies like Propaganda that can generate more advertising revenue。

But 188bet sports betting app download past two years,Most of the mergers and acquisitions they do,Still concentrated 188bet sports betting app download offline theater market: AMC in 2012、Hoyts in 2015、Carmichael 2016、Oden,And more domestic small theaters。

From the “Oriental Film City” project in Qingdao,You can also see how Wang Jianlin ultimately wants to use these resources: stars、Blockbuster,188bet sports betting app download would be great if we could earn back the box office independently;But if 188bet sports betting app download can be combined with real estate projects,Can also become an auxiliary property sales、And a means to boost the popularity of commercial complexes。

The same goes for the tourism and sports industries.

in 2016,Wang Jianlin also spent some time,The highest level in the demonstration group、Latest mode、The 20 largest “188bet sports betting app download Cities”,Can you beat the newly opened Disneyland in Shanghai。

A "theme park" that simply stimulates sensory experience、And the rising ski resorts have always been popular in China,But add hotel、Apartment、After the shopping mall,Whether it is in Xishuangbanna、Changbai Mountain,Still in Nanchang、Wuxi,These “188bet sports betting app download cities” are still the same 188bet sports betting app download,And the standardized retail you see in the city、There is not much difference in leisure services。

Essentially, these are all businesses that follow real estate.

So what does 188bet sports betting app download’s “asset-light” want most?

At 188bet sports betting app download year’s work report meeting,Wang Jianlin mentioned a statement he made long ago: "The highest state of business management is 'karate',But 188bet sports betting app download ‘karate’ is not a liar,There is a brand,Have the ability,Others come to your door,You can make money with your brand without spending a penny。”

This "empty wolf" model,Not only requires extremely high brand operation capabilities,188bet sports betting app download also needs a sound financial system to support 188bet sports betting app download。In the West where derivatives are very developed,The brand management and land part of commercial real estate projects can be completely separated,The latter can be put into REITS funds for investment,Brands can use funds to improve daily operations,This is a win-win structure。

2009,188bet sports betting app download has also tried to use this model to package and list assets in China,But ultimately failed to do so。This is why they sent 188bet sports betting app download Commercial to be listed in Hong Kong,Still chose a loan with a higher risk factor、One of the reasons for the model of selling properties。188bet sports betting app download Commercial also faced risks due to this complex financing structure,Has been given lower ratings by multiple rating agencies。

To date,Regulatory agencies still have not released REITS,But 188bet sports betting app download has begun to take practical actions,Attempt to partially implement this idea: in the several light asset cooperation models they finally disclosed,Investors invest money、You can get stable income by giving land and other methods,After 188bet sports betting app download’s project has been operating smoothly for several years,You can also choose to package the project and sell it to investors,Or buy it yourself。

188bet sports betting app download Plaza suddenly became relatively flexible、Financial products that can be traded,It also depends on the rent collection situation,Regular "dividends" with investors - for a professional commercial real estate operation team,As long as the project’s business combination、Brand layout is good enough、Guaranteed rental income to increase every year,This is not an unattainable goal。

Transformation management company is of course good,But is 188bet sports betting app download a good management company

In the process of 188bet sports betting app download’s crazy expansion,Investment in the square、Management has always been considered to have no problems by the outside world。

After all,What officials who emphasize political performance care most,is the speed of “complete a complex in 22 months” during his tenure、And the effect of "full store opening";Investors whose wealth has increased sharply but have nowhere to spend,What is needed is a stable large-amount investment target;Consumers who have thousands of dollars more disposable income every year,At that time, there was still a lot of room for “consumption upgrade”。

The rate of appreciation of house prices can hide all problems,To all participants,"General is on his way" appears in all cases,The optimistic attitude of not chasing little rabbits。

But what about when growth slows down?

188bet sports betting app download’s obviously already slowing down like this,There is no hope of recovery in the short term。

188bet sports betting app download’s troubles may have just begun—and,Only from the rent portion to be returned to investors,This trouble is already quite big。

According to data released by 188bet sports betting app download Commercial during its listing, 2014 - 2016,The average monthly rent per square meter in 188bet sports betting app download Plaza only increased from 85 yuan to 103 yuan。In typical third-tier cities,A shopping mall located in a prime location in the city center,The average monthly rent per square meter should be around 300 yuan。

Although Wang Jianlin emphasized,The profit margin of rental is extremely high,Contributes more to net profit,But judging from the data of the past five years,The proportion of 188bet sports betting app download part in the group’s revenue,That is, gradually from 3.6% increased to 7.7%。

If you take into account the rent increase that a generally well-run shopping center will have after a few years、Methods to increase deduction points,188bet sports betting app download Plaza with more than 2 billion passengers every year,Shouldn’t have done so badly。This will make you wonder: these are commercial complexes located in the centers of second- and third-tier cities,What kind of unprofitable brands have been introduced。

In the past, in order to attract merchants to settle in,One of 188bet sports betting app download’s selling points is the low cost when acquiring land,Translates to lower rent than peers。In addition,There are also a number of 188bet sports betting app download self-operated ones、Anchor store format that can attract large customer flow: movie theater、KTV、Department store and children's playground。
But judging from the actual situation after several years of operation,Except for theater business,The other three businesses have all shown obvious signs of decline。Big Singer KTV finally closed all 80+ stores in 2015,Wanqian Department Store ended with Wang Jianlin’s personal acquisition。

Even 188bet sports betting app download Cinema, the future “entertainment complex”,This year may also enter a confusing period of slowing down growth。

This is not only a lack of confidence caused by the box office market that opened high but fell in 2016,There are also problems of low-tier cities themselves: the bustling entertainment industry,Essentially, we are doing business for young people。If these young people only visit during the holidays、will only appear in the cinema in my hometown,Then IMAX in 188bet sports betting app download Cinema、Premium for advanced technologies such as Dolby,Who usually pays the bill?

Consumption power in low-tier cities is a fatal problem。So,Let those with greater influence、Brands that focus on image enter third- and fourth-tier cities with 188bet sports betting app download Plaza,It has always been very difficult。Finally stayed、Allied with 188bet sports betting app download,Only those fast fashions that are blooming everywhere、Catering brand,As well as dealer stores with a relatively traditional model。

A mid-level employee who previously worked in 188bet sports betting app download Department Store told Curiosity Daily,In order to maintain the miracle of "full store opening",Between 188bet sports betting app download and brand merchants,A community has actually gradually formed,In the form of overall packaging,Appears again and again in cities big and small across the country。“This is no longer the so-called concept of investment,But every time there is a new 188bet sports betting app download Plaza,These brands will basically follow to develop the market together。”

This also means,They have to face the problem of economic downturn warning together: when these brands are eyeing the national market,Of course I am willing to conquer the world together with 188bet sports betting app download。But if they shrink、Preparing for winter,It has even penetrated into the low-end market、E-commerce companies with more choices and cheaper prices are in a mess?

If 188bet sports betting app download becomes a management company,These must stand the test。Otherwise it will not be an advantage,And it will become a disadvantage in an instant。

If 188bet sports betting app download seems to be easy、The price of “asset-light” that is bound to succeed,188bet sports betting app download is to manage external high-demand funds、Test investment and operation capabilities、And the "heavy" dealing with high industry uncertainty,Can Wang Jianlin still feel relaxed??

* 188bet sports betting app download article is reprinted from Curiosity Daily, original link:http://www.qdaily.com/articles/36942.html

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