I accidentally saw an article reposted by Huxiu.com，《How much water has been put into 188bet data？People are in too much debt，Inability to consume？》.Tell the truth，I read a few lines when I first saw it，I really can’t read anymore。The author never saves money like this、No logic、Waste of time on unprofessional articles。I never thought about it，In a few days, I actually received 100,000+ views。Isn’t it true that a few years ago The Times reported that “the IQ levels of young people have been steadily declining over the past few decades”，It’s really not alarmist？Maybe the "cocoon effect" is at work，Some people only want to see what they want to see，Even if what you see is inconsistent with common sense？Read carefully，I discovered something fishy，The author is really a master of digging holes。As a 188bet researcher，I used to work at China 188bet Academy，I don’t want to speak for my “natal family”，Just in the academic spirit of seeking truth，I hope readers will not be deceived by some sanctimonious "second-rate knowledge mongers"，Talk about 188bet over coffee、Introduction to statistics at the undergraduate level。

1. Before talking about 188bet statistics, you must first understand itDefinition of 188bet

The article mentioned that “Everyone must complete domestic travel4.29 times indicator。Do you readers think this number is possible?？”“The number of tourists is a very mysterious thing” “And the number of tourists is difficult to define，The caliber is very random，On a trip，Possible entry and exit from airport/station、Tickets of different sizes to enter various scenic spots、Accommodation、Food and beverages are counted separately，A tourist is counted at least a dozen times”，The person who said this，Must be a layman who has not read "188bet Statistical Survey System"，Even the most basic travel、The definition and statistical caliber of tourists are unclear。Proposed by Swiss scholars Henziker and Krapf in 1942，188bet is the sum of all phenomena and relationships caused by non-settlement travel and short stay。Such travel and stay will not result in long-term residence or any money-making activity。This definition was adopted by the International Association of 188bet Science Experts (IASET) in 1970，So it is also called "Ester" definition。In 1991, the World 188bet Organization (WTO) defined 188bet as an activity in which a person travels to a place outside his or her usual residential environment and stays for a period not exceeding a certain limit，The main purpose of this type of travel is to engage in some unpaid activity in the place visited。This definition was first proposed in the book "1993 International 188bet Statistics Recommendations" adopted by the global "International Conference on 188bet Statistics"，Adopted by the United Nations Statistical Commission in March 1993。After，The concept of 188bet including the above definition、Classification systems and statistical methods were immediately responded and recognized by countries around the world，Widely adopted in many academic treatises and college textbooks in my country。The most widely used and widely circulated 188bet textbook in 188bet schools across the country ("Introduction to 188bet" by Professor Li Tianyuan)，Evaluate this definition as the “latest development result” in the research on the concept of 188bet activities。Admittedly，Dozens of conceptual definitions of 188bet，Connotations vary。But one thing is the international consensus，That is, travel can have one or more motives，The motivation of traveling is related to recreation (or recreation)，Business included、Education、Factors such as health or religion，All these form the basis of 188bet。

It is difficult to implement the conceptual definition into quantitative measurement，To this end, tourists need to be technically defined，To measure the number of trips and expenses by identifying tourists。The United Nations Statistical Commission in the "2008 International 188bet Statistics Recommendations" aims to make 188bet activities measurable，Suggested "for vacation、Leisure and entertainment、Visiting relatives and friends、Education and Training、Health and Medical、Religious and other purposes，A traveler who travels outside his or her usual environment for less than one year is a tourist”。Developed by the former National 188bet Administration、The "188bet Statistical Survey System" approved by the National Bureau of Statistics is integrated with international standards，Definition of tourist as “anything for leisure、Entertainment、Sightseeing、Vacation、Visiting relatives and friends、Medical care、Shopping、Attend a meeting or engage in economics、Culture、Sports、Religious activities，Leaving the country (or place of permanent residence) to another country (or place)，The continuous stay does not exceed 12 months，A person whose main purpose in another country (or place) is not to obtain remuneration for the activities he performs”。This is not what the author imagined，Buying a train ticket or air ticket and traveling far away is considered travel，Traveling is not purely about sightseeing and leisure，Visiting relatives and friends、Business、Cultural and sports purposes are included in the scope of 188bet。As long as it is more than 10 kilometers away from the usual environment、More than 6 hours but not more than 12 months、Not for the purpose of getting reward，Have the above four elements of travel motivation。

Residents in developed European and American countries travel more than 8 times per capita in a year，There are many more than 10 times。The per capita travel rate of Chinese residents is 4.29 times，And the number of national 188bet days in 2019 is only 7.About 65 days，Only 62 in South Korea during the same period.47%，Only accounts for 70% of my country’s 11-day public holidays，plus 104 weekend days，National rest days are 115 days，The proportion of domestic travel days is only 6.65%。If you add employees’ paid leave and welfare leave for family visits, marriage and childbirth，This proportion will further decrease。The four o’clock travel rate should be said to be consistent with our country’s conditions and strength。The author thinks "Is it possible without any argument?"？”，So arbitrary，Definitely not a scholarly attitude (judging from published articles，I haven’t published any papers that conform to the academic paradigm)。Furthermore, the "number of people" the author thinks is "very mysterious"，It has long been clarified in the "188bet Statistics Survey System"，National 188bet statistics: 1 trip is 1 person。In other words，The whole process of tourists from leaving home to returning home，No matter how many places we have been to，How many projects to play，Only 1 person is counted。People who don’t understand，It does feel "mysterious"。

2. 188bet is not advisable to use wrong data as an argument

The author believes that “the growth rate of urban residents’ total 188bet expenditure has remained between 13% and 17% year after year。This deviates several times from the growth rate of urban residents’ per capita disposable income and per capita consumption expenditure announced by the National Bureau of Statistics”，Obviously changing the concept。The total 188bet expenditure of urban residents is the product of the number of urban residents’ trips and per capita consumption，Contains at least four increments，That is: (1) Increment in urban population size。my country’s urbanization rate has increased by about 1 percentage point every year in recent years，The city has more people，The output of tourists is naturally high。(2) The increase in tourist output brought about by the increase in the urban population’s travel rate。In fact, the proportion of urban tourists and spending has increased steadily in recent years，Travel rate continues to increase。The "2019 Survey on the Assets and Liabilities of Chinese Urban Households" by the Urban Household Assets and Liabilities Survey Team of the Survey and Statistics Department of the People's Bank of China shows，The median net worth of urban households is 141.00,000 yuan。Compare to the United States，The distribution of household wealth in China is relatively balanced。The "2019 China Cross-Border Travel Consumption Report" jointly released by Ctrip Travel and Mastercard pointed out that the total number of outbound trips increased by 14% year-on-year，Mid-range products in 2、Third-tier cities have year-on-year growth rates close to or exceeding 100%。The wealth and income level of Chinese urban residents can support higher 188bet output。(3) Increase in per capita 188bet expenditure，That is, the increase in per capita spending on a single trip。The author thinks this increment is too low，I will explain it later。(4) Increment generated by the increase in the overall price level。The total travel cost is nominal price，The growth rate is the nominal growth rate including price factors。

Stated in the "Statistical Bulletin of National Economic and Social Development" of the National Bureau of Statistics in recent years，The per capita disposable income of urban residents in 2019 was 42,359 yuan，An increase of 7 over the previous year.9%，Deducting price factors，Actual growth 5.0%”；In 2018, the per capita disposable income of urban residents was 39,251 yuan，An increase of 7 over the previous year.8%，Deducting price factors，Actual growth 5.6%”。The growth rates of per capita disposable income and per capita consumption expenditure of urban residents listed by the author in the article are both comparable growth rates，Compare the growth rate of comparable prices after deducting price factors with the nominal growth rate of urban residents’ 188bet spending，With ulterior motives。Besides，The growth rate of urban residents’ total 188bet expenditure also includes the increase in the other three aspects mentioned above，How can it be directly compared with the per capita disposable income and per capita consumption expenditure of urban residents！

Total assets 188bet household in each province

Source: 2019 Survey on Assets and Liabilities of Chinese 188bet Households，"China Finance" Issue 9, 2020

Let’s look at the author’s “feeling” per capita 188bet expenditure that the growth rate is too low。The author thinks，“When domestic tourists and 188bet revenue are both growing rapidly，The growth rate of per capita 188bet expenditure is getting lower and lower”。Everyone who has a little observation and understanding of the 188bet market knows that，In recent years, Chinese residents have shown a trend of high frequency of travel。For example，Many families only need good weather on weekends，I will drive myself to pick it、Outing、Mountain climbing、Parent-child games，The number of times has increased significantly，The increased number of times is mostly short-distance travel。(No need to fly，This is why the author’s simple analogy of the growth rate of air passenger transport to the growth rate of tourists is extremely wrong)。For this reason，Of course the average cost of a single trip has not increased much。It is recommended that the author can go out as a tourist，The "feeling" of staying at home，I must not be able to do good 188bet research。

As for the "especially in 2018" mentioned by the author，The value of per capita domestic 188bet expenditure of urban residents has been changed，If the total domestic 188bet expenditure of urban residents is 425.9 billion yuan/number of domestic tourists for urban residents 44.19 (100 million people)，The value is 963.8 yuan，The growth rate becomes -5.9%。Obviously it is very unsightly to see a negative growth rate in per capita consumption under a good situation，So I forced the primary school students to do the wrong division and ended up with 1034 yuan，Growth rate is 0.92%”，See here，I think the author should go back to school and recuperate。The "Basic Situation of the 188bet Market in 2018" released by the Ministry of Culture and 188bet on February 12, 2019 stated clearly，“According to the results of domestic 188bet sampling survey，Number of domestic tourists 55.3.9 billion people，10 more than the same period last year.8%。Among them，Urban residents 41.1.9 billion people，Growth 12.0%”，41.How did the author turn 1.9 billion visits into 44.1.9 billion visitors。42590 (100 million yuan)/urban residents and domestic tourists 41.19 (100 million people)，Approximately equal to 1034 yuan，Every elementary school student knows there is nothing wrong here。

3. Arguments must respect 188bet academic rationality

Of course I support multi-dimensional argumentation，But it can be called the basic premise of the argument，It is to prove the relationship between arguments and arguments。That is, use A to prove B，You must first prove that A can prove B，Just relying on feeling is not enough。The 188bet uses China Merchants Bank’s user wealth data to prove the huge wealth gap among Chinese people，It is well known that China Merchants Bank’s customer structure is different from other banks，The 188bet should have a new "feeling" if he takes the data from the Postal Savings Bank。Gini coefficient display published by the National Bureau of Statistics，my country’s Gini coefficient has been mostly 0 for many years.4 to 0.between 5，Generally downward trend。The 188bet uses sample survey data that is authoritative and more in line with my country’s population structure，Maybe he “feels” that this case data can better support his fallacy。

Real estate sales and debt burden，The "2019 Survey on Assets and Liabilities of Chinese Urban Households" released by the Central Bank shows，The housing ownership rate of urban residents reaches 96.0%，Houses are for living in，All have rooms，Sales will naturally come down。Survey also shows，Urban residents’ liabilities mainly come from bank loans，Mortgage is the main component of household debt，75% of total household debt.9%。The average debt-to-income ratio of urban households in my country is 1.02，Slightly higher than the United States 0.93 level。The average debt-to-income ratio of urban households is 18.4%，The mortgage debt-to-income ratio is 9.1%。The average debt-to-income ratio of households with debt is 29.5%，Median is 26.7%。Debt is not a problem，Not enough is the problem。my country’s unemployment rate has always remained low，Resident income grows steadily，The burden of rental debt does affect travel demand，Already reflected in the current low travel rate and travel expenses。Domestic 188bet sample survey conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics Polling Center，What was investigated was the actual travel behavior of residents after going into debt。

Also，The situation of the car is more complicated，Subject to city license plate and number restrictions、Subsidy reduction policy、National VI emissions are about to be implemented，And after more than ten years of rapid development, most cars have not yet reached the point of being scrapped and many other factors，Cannot simply compare 188bet。The World Bank recently released the car ownership per thousand people in 20 major countries in the world in 2019，173 cars per thousand people in China，Comparable to South Africa and Indonesia，The number one car in the United States with 837 vehicles per 1,000 people，Nearly 5 times that of China，China still has a lot of room for development。Current car sales are weak，We must not simply think that our income cannot keep up。Otherwise，How to explain that domestic brands have become increasingly unsaleable in recent years，Better quality joint venture car，Even Mercedes、BMW、Audi and other luxury cars are increasingly entering the homes of ordinary citizens。

Mr. Fei Xiaotong often talks about "respecting writing paper"，Said that when he was a child, he saw his grandmother picking up every piece of paper with writing on 188bet，Gather and burn in the furnace，And taught him to "respect the writing paper"。He also laughed at the old grandmother for being superstitious，Only when I grow up to the age of my grandmother do I understand，Written on the paper，188bet becomes something that can bring misfortune and blessing to everyone，should not be underestimated。188bet’s also good to write articles，Just read the text，Everyone should be in awe。Read more and read more，The truth may not be found，But you can definitely discover your ignorance。

*Source of 188bet article: WeChat public account “Reading Points”(ID:gh_e979c039c107)，188bet: Chen Xu，Original title：《Is it 188bet data or brain damage?？This paranoia can be cured!》.