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Performance Forecast Author of this article: Zhihui 2021-02-08 08:56:26
In-depth analysis of major cultural and tourism events of the week.
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As a cultural and tourism industry operator,We all look forward to moving forward on this、Every major event in the ever-changing cultural and tourism era、Every key node,Have more understanding,Know its transformation、Hot and cold and trends。

here,Zhihui coordinates and analyzes the latest trends in cultural tourism during the week,Trying to find from these living elements the latest events or information in each field that are worth recording,Based on a certain framework、Perspective or Dimension,Let’s explore what they bring to the development of the cultural tourism industry,The value points brought to us。

Cultural Tourism Review【Week 67】,Frontline information on culture and tourism,In-depth analysis of the week。

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No miracles,No surprise,The main tone of the 2020 performance forecast of listed travel companies under the epidemic is losses。Scenic Area、Airlines、Hotel、Enterprises in cultural tourism, real estate and other fields,All suffered from varying degrees of performance decline。

Zhangjiajie, a listed tourism company in the scenic spot category, will suffer a predetermined loss of 75 million to 1 in 2020.0.5 billion yuan,The net profit after deduction is a loss of 90 million-1.200 million yuan;Guilin tourism has more losses in advance,Da2.7.4 billion yuan,The net profit last year was 55.02 million yuan,The main reason for the performance change is that the number of tourists received dropped by about 56% year-on-year due to the impact of the epidemic,Revenue dropped approximately 58% year-on-year。

Compared,The tourism situation in Jiuhua is relatively good,There is still profit,It’s just a serious decline。its announcement,Estimated net profit in 2020 is between 52 million yuan and 57 million yuan,Decreased by 60.02 million yuan year-on-year to 65.02 million yuan,51 year-on-year decrease.29% to 55.56%。

Jiuhua Tourism Announcement mentioned the reasons behind the performance,The dilemma of traditional scenic spots has basically been revealed。mentioned in its announcement,The main reason for the pre-reduction in performance for this period is travel restrictions and tourist attraction restrictions due to the impact of the epidemic,Tourists’ willingness to travel decreases,Changes in tourism consumption patterns,Revenue results have been materially adversely affected;The epidemic situation will ease in the second half of the year,Enhancing marketing through adoption、Strictly control costs、Strive for favorable policy support and other means,Turn losses into profits。

Uniform revenue from the ticket economy of listed companies in scenic spots (including transportation and passenger transport companies in scenic spots)、The disadvantages 188bet app of relying on a single tourist flow,Being more exposed under the influence of the epidemic,An environment where local travel/surrounding travel dominates,The overall situation is not good for the scenic spot,Diversion of leisure and vacation products,Making it difficult for scenic spots to better match demand in the background of customer group adjustment,The basic passenger flow has been greatly affected,And it is difficult to adapt in a short time,Passenger flow is declining、Reduction in revenue and profit,It will be a longer process。

A new move in Huangshan tourism,There is a contrast effect。February 3,Huangshan Tourism Announcement,Planned to invest 500 million to establish a subsidiary,Responsible for foreign investment and other business,Business scope includes equity investment,Investment Management,Management consulting, etc.。The optimization of existing resources that we have been talking about,For many scenic spots, it is actually more of a "powerless intention",Expansion incremental project、Incremental business increases revenue、A more direct method to expand revenue scope and profit growth points。Make increment,Becomes an unavoidable means of hedging business crises in scenic spots。

Theme parks are also having a hard time。Dalian Shengya announced,Estimated net profit in 2020 is -81.6 million yuan to -68 million yuan,Estimated non-net profit deduction is -1.1.4 billion yuan to -91 million yuan。

An important detail is,Dalian Shengya mentioned,The risk that the company’s stocks will be delisted after the 2020 financial report is disclosed,The reason is that after deducting business income unrelated to the main business and income without commercial substance,Dalian Sunya’s expected revenue is less than 100 million yuan,Reaching one of the red lines of the Shanghai Stock Exchange’s new delisting regulations: negative net profit before and after deductions and operating income less than RMB 100 million。

This is the hidden danger of Dalian Shengya crisis that has not been eliminated for a long time,In addition to the epidemic、The result of multiple factors including internal strife,The crisis is intensifying。

Dalian Shengya mentioned it earlier,The main risk faced by the company is that the revenue of existing operating venues has stabilized,Not much room for growth,Weak growth in main business,The new project is still in the investment and construction stage。

For theme park companies,There are two main development paths: one is through asset-heavy investment + asset-light brand output,Continuously launching new projects,Realizing incremental benefits;The second is based on the combination of light and heavy modes,Make the industrial chain longer,Extension to upstream IP content,Create a closed business loop,This is the need to raise business barriers,It is also an inevitable demand to create more profit growth points。

Dalian Shengya’s “White Whale Project”,Carrying the important task of developing the second path,But subject to IP creation、Insufficient capital investment,This plan is still difficult to carry out its important tasks。

Outbound tourism companies are even more optimistic.

Zhongxin Travel Announcement,The company is expected to lose 1.3 billion to 1.5 billion yuan in 2020,1994 lower than the same period last year.72% to 2286.22%,Profit in the same period last year 6,861.170,000 yuan。According to the announcement,Estimated operating income in 2020 is 1.5 billion to 1.7 billion yuan,compared to 126 in the same period last year.2.2 billion yuan。

Just how severely affected by the epidemic、In terms of recovery time and other dimensions,Outbound travel is the most serious segment,Among the travel companies that went bankrupt or had massive layoffs in 2020,The proportion of outbound tourism companies is relatively high。How will Uoxin Tourism evolve in the next few years,How to find more opportunities in the domestic tourism market,will be the key to affecting its performance。

A travel company in which cultural tourism real estate accounts for an important part of its business segment,Performance is not good either。

Xinhualian Cultural Tourism expects the company to achieve revenue of 6.8 billion-7.3 billion yuan in 2020,Reduced by 76 compared with 12 billion yuan in 2019.47%;Net profit loss attributable to shareholders of listed companies 1.1 billion-1.3 billion yuan。

Fosun Travel announced,The company’s expected loss in 2020 is 2.5 billion to 26.500 million yuan,Mainly due to the operating losses of the group’s resort operations。Announcement display,Due to approximately 55% reduction in resort capacity ,Expected to cause a decrease in sales of approximately 57%。Also in 2020,Mainly due to construction and delivery cycle planning,Fosun Tourism Group’s tourism-related property sales and construction revenue is expected to drop by approximately 87%。

A simple comparison between Xinhualian Tourism and Fosun Tourism,The former’s cultural tourism ancient town project products and geographical areas have weak competitiveness,Compared to the driving effect of Fosun Tourism Resort on real estate project sales,will be weaker,The latter is returning during outbound travel、In the context of the mainstream of peripheral tourism,There will be more consumption conversion opportunities in 2021,The ancient town of Xinhualian Cultural Tourism、Real estate may encounter a greater crisis。

Destination Investment Barometer

This week’s destination focuses on cultural tourism investment、Cultural tourism and health care、Hainan and outbound travel。

February 1,According to public information,2020,Henan Province plans 191 key cultural tourism projects,Total investment 745.3 billion yuan,There are 66 newly started key cultural tourism projects,Total investment 183.7 billion yuan。Among them,National strategy focusing on ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River,Establish a database of key projects in the province’s cultural tourism industry,Planned 45 major Yellow River cultural tourism projects,Total investment 2474.3.2 billion yuan。

There are two important information in this,First, Henan plans and launches new cultural tourism projects in 2020,The quantity and investment amount are not small,As 188bet app a cultural center and a potential highland for the development of cultural tourism industry,These cultural and tourism investments are evidence;The second is the Yellow River region and its culture,In contexts such as the construction of national cultural parks,will become a driving variable in the development of Henan’s cultural tourism industry,Revolving around an important cultural core,To create IP and amplify IP value,is one of the next development cores of a destination。

Except central region,The southwest region is also a cultural and tourism highland。Recently,Chongqing announced the list of key municipal cultural and tourism industry projects from 2021 to 2023,129 items in total,Involving investment 8995.4.2 billion yuan。Among them,70 projects under construction、59 planning, construction and investment attraction projects。Divided by category,Mainly focus on travel and vacation、Scenic spot development、Cultural Tourism Complex、Cultural and Creative Park、Categories such as cultural tourism towns。Among them: 34 tourism and vacation projects,28 scenic spot development projects,18 cultural and tourism complex projects,16 cultural and creative park projects,13 cultural tourism town projects。

Population of Southwest Region、Economic development (especially Chongqing、Chengdu,Building the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle, etc.)、Market size and other factors,Give it an advantage in the deferral of cultural tourism highlands,Cultural tourism investment will rise。

Hainan cannot be bypassed.

According to public reports,During the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, Hainan proposed to basically build an international tourism consumption center,The total number of tourists received by 2025 will reach 1.100 million visitors、Total tourism revenue exceeds the target of 180 billion yuan。As understood,Hainan will focus on creating duty-free shopping、International Medical、Three major brands for studying in Hainan,Attracting Chinese residents to return overseas consumption;Promote cooperation with the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area、Yangtze River Delta、Coordinated development of major national strategic regions such as Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei。

Considering the time it will take to resume outbound travel,The entire "14th Five-Year Plan" can be regarded as a window period for Hainan to transform outbound tourism and return consumption,In addition, the free trade port policy is further implemented,Hainan needs to take more actions and performance in international tourism,What kind of foundation can be laid during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period,What breakthroughs have been achieved,will determine the growth and development space of Hainan international tourism in the longer term。

Hainan chooses to do duty-free shopping、International Medical、Studying in Hainan as three breakthrough points,The first two naturally have leisure and vacation resources、Preferential policies and other blessings,The logic is not difficult to understand,Is it feasible to build the brand "Study in Hainan"??

This is also related to policy,The Ministry of Education once proposed to support 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino Hainan in building an international education innovation island,Create a new benchmark for the open development of China’s education in the new era。Many related policies are unique across the country,Especially pilot overseas engineering universities and vocational colleges to run independent schools,This is unique in mainland China。

This is naturally intended to convert some of the people who study abroad to Hainan,And provide talent supply for the development of Hainan。But Hainan’s education foundation is weak,Including basic education level needs to be improved,The support and effect of the policy may be in a state of unstable foundation for a long time,Similar to international medical care,Its development depends on policies, especially unique policies,But it depends more on the possibility of forming an industrial chain,These are still big challenges for Hainan。

A recent new policy,It is also good for Hainan。General Office of the National Development and Reform Commission、General Office of the Ministry of Civil Affairs、The "Notice on Establishing a Mechanism for Key Contact Cities to Actively Respond to Population Aging" jointly issued by the General Office of the National Health Commission,Promote business model innovation。Promote the elderly care industry and education and training、Health、Sports、Culture、Travel、Integrated development of happiness industries such as housekeeping,Support qualified regions to create residential and elderly care destinations。

Health and wellness is an important variable in the development of the cultural tourism industry,This variable is expanding rapidly,Cultural tourism and health care will be the most prominent natural resources and environment、Important competitive areas for destinations with good leisure vacation development,In particular, more cultural, tourism and health care real estate projects will be implemented。

Look at outbound travel,Judging from the current global epidemic situation,It’s hard to be optimistic yet,Vaccination will be the key to reversing the situation,But it is difficult to have a significant effect in the short term,The freeze or even slow recovery of outbound travel will be the main manifestation for a longer period of time。

The ASEAN Tourism Association is trying to find more "self-help" possibilities for outbound tourism,For example, its recent plan to promote the reopening of borders among the ten ASEAN countries,The ASEAN Tourism Association, which includes the private sector and national tourism organizations of 10 member countries, will call on ASEAN countries to reopen tourism in the first or second quarter of this year。Association recommendation,First half of this year,Southeast Asian countries are beginning to consider hosting guests from the 10 ASEAN countries and China、Business travelers from three dialogue partner countries including Japan and South Korea,For people coming from places with no or low risk of infection,Reduce their isolation time。

Inbound tourism in Southeast Asia mainly relies on tourists from Europe, America, China, Japan and South Korea,It is difficult to have good expectations in the 188bet app European and American markets at present,Nearby countries become the focus of breakthrough,Looking optimistically,If the above plan of the ASEAN Tourism Association is really implemented,It will serve as a reference for the resumption of outbound tourism,But we also need to see situations like China’s strict control of overseas imported cases,It is not easy to push this plan into effect。

Innovative cultural and tourism formats

This week’s innovation format focuses on two companies that have received financing.

Recently,Reportedly,Ski equipment brand "Aoxue Culture" received 20 million yuan in Pre-A round financing,The investor is Shenzhen Venture Capital。As understood,This round of financing will be used for product research and development、Store expansion and team building。Aoxue Culture was established in 2014,Headquarters in Beijing,In the United States、Branch in Japan,Currently there are nearly 70 people in the team。

This financing cannot be separated from the background of the popularity of ice and snow or skiing in China,Market demand is rising、Winter Olympics bonuses, etc.,Promoted the development of the ski industry chain,In this industry chain,Ski equipment still has pain points or space to be filled in the country。Aoxue Culture’s equipment research and development and supply capabilities are a major advantage。

Another company that received financing is the homestay alliance brand Rucheng,February 4,According to the company’s check,Rucheng recently completed Series A financing,The investor is Huagai Capital、Shengdao Investment、Yunfeng Fund、Tipping Point Capital、Kunlun Wanwei。As understood,Rucheng is a homestay alliance brand,Established in April 2019,The product provides one-stop travel services including travel strategy consultation。

Although also affected by the epidemic,However, B&Bs (mainly country B&Bs) are in terms of market demand and future growth space,Has visible potential,This is the fundamentals。simultaneously,One of Rucheng’s models is the membership system,That is, users pay a certain fee (public information mentions 1,280 yuan) to become a Rucheng Renxiang member,Within the validity period of one-year membership rights,You can make unlimited reservations for all hotels that the platform cooperates with,You can stay for free after the reservation is successful。

This model has several core points,First, membership fees provide a certain amount of cash flow,The second is the off-peak season for B&Bs、Vacant property、Multi-regional integration,and preferential price。B&B accommodation integration、Bargaining power,And ability improvement that matches members’ needs,will be the key to whether this model can continue or even expand。

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