Ctrip’s secondary listing in Hong Kong today，As of 16:00，Market value stable at 1772.HKD 8.6 billion，equivalent to 228.USD 2.8 billion，With US stock market value 234.$5.5 billion approaching。

On whether Ctrip can tell new stories，Different opinions within the industry，Our view is，Not easy。And what about Booking, the world’s largest OTA？

During the epidemic，Booking suffered heavy losses，However, the current market value has basically returned to before the epidemic，is US$101.6 billion (also more than 4 times the market value of Ctrip)，What deserves more attention is，As its number one competitor，Airbnb’s current market capitalization is US$107.6 billion，$6 billion higher than the former。

Although there have been doubts about the market value bubble since its listing，Airbnb’s market value has also declined，But US$100 billion still makes it a leader among travel companies，This market value is expected to remain for a long time，Competition with competitors such as Booking will also intensify。

The "war" in the accommodation field continues.

Behind the high market value，What kind of story does Airbnb tell?？Can you tell a new story？

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Valuation from US$30 billion before the epidemic，$18 billion during the epidemic，And then to US$33 billion before listing、$42 billion，Until the eve of listing, it rose to a valuation of US$47 billion，Airbnb “hit the bottom” after experiencing the severe impact of the epidemic，Staging a counter-trend situation。

On the day of listing，Airbnb closed at 144.USD 71，113% increase compared to the IPO issue price of $68，Its market value reaches 100.7 billion US dollars，Raised US$3.5 billion through IPO，Became the largest IPO last year。 

Present，Airbnb stock price fluctuates，But it is still at a high level after listing，As ​​of April 19, 9:53 EST，Its latest market value is US$107.6 billion，Compared with booking’s US$101.6 billion in the same period，More than $6 billion。

A family that was not favored during the epidemic，Listing is also a difficult company，Why we quickly 188bet sports betting app download put the market value of traditional giants behind us？

Let’s first see how Airbnb performs.

Airbnb’s first financial report after listing disclosed in February this year，Its full-year bookings for 2020 were $23.9 billion，Down 37% year-on-year，Total annual income 33.USD 7.8 billion，Down 30% year-on-year。

And Booking、Marriott、Hilton、The full-year revenue of AccorHotels and others in 2020 will be at least halved year-on-year，Airbnb’s performance is relatively good。

Also in 2017-2019 before the epidemic，Airbnb’s average annual revenue growth rate is 42%，And Booking、Expedia and Marriott have average growth rates of 12% each、11% and 11%。But in terms of profit，Airbnb is still losing money，And Booking、Expedia and Marriott’s profits grew at an average annual rate of 35% each、7.5% and 6%。

Airbnb also had no profit last year。its 2020 annual report shows，its full-year EBITDA is -2.US$5.1 billion，With -2 in 2019.USD 5.3 billion is basically the same。

It will still be difficult for Airbnb to make a profit.

Airbnb’s huge listings，On the one hand, it ensures supply coverage and market share，But on the other hand, in a situation where overall demand is restricted，It is also a huge cost burden，No matter the rental cost，It is also the marginal cost of operation and management of the house, etc.，There will be more pressure。

Cost cutting has become an integral part of Airbnb’s future profitability。 

Data display，Airbnb achieved 4 in Q3 2020.$1.8 billion operating profit，This is thanks to the company's significant cost reductions in the third quarter，Especially in marketing、And 25% layoff。

In fact, some people think that Airbnb’s stock price is too high，I made this statement after it was launched。Recent analysts’ estimates，Airbnb’s total revenue increased from $2.6 billion in 2017 to $4.8 billion in 2019，But dropped 30% to 33 in 2020.USD 7.8 billion，Total company revenue expected to recover to $4.8 billion in 2021。

According to stock price = total revenue / outstanding shares x price-to-sales multiple，Based on Airbnb’s 2021 revenue forecast of $4.8 billion and an estimate of a price-to-sales ratio of 15 times，Airbnb’s market value is approximately US$71 billion，Approximately $120 per share，A far cry from the current market cap of $108.7 billion。

But this kind of calculation，In fact, it is difficult to fully reflect the market value of Airbnb。

Capital market for listed companies，There is no love without reason，There are several influencing factors behind 188bet online sports betting its high market value:

1、The worst stage of the epidemic is over，Travel demand is being further released，At the same time, vaccination coverage has been increased，Vaccination rate gradually increases，The number of epidemic cases has shown an overall downward trend，Airbnb’s homestay products have great advantages over hotels in recovery，Mainly because people will choose less densely populated places to travel and plan vacations。

Refer to the data disclosed by Airbnb，Short-term rentals in rural areas increased by 25% month-on-month in July last year，July 8th，The global booking volume on the Airbnb platform exceeds 1 million room nights，The best result in 3 months at that time。An important detail is，About 50% of bookings on July 8 were for trips within 300 miles (approximately 480 kilometers)，About two-thirds of bookings are for accommodation outside the city，Surrounding Tour、Rural tourism becomes mainstream。

Compared with other cross-business peers，Airbnb’s performance is also relatively good。The third quarter of last year，Airbnb’s gross bookings fell 28% year over year，And Expedia’s total bookings fell 68% year-over-year，Booking Holdings bookings down 48%。

2、In the long run，Airbnb has a bright future，The company has strong growth momentum，Their brand has been a leader in vacation rentals。The key point is，Airbnb’s ability to integrate global listings、Aggregation effect and potential market space。

Compare this to a hotel，It can also be explained to some extent that Airbnb’s market value far exceeds that of hotel giants such as Marriott。The hotel is developing the number of rooms，At the same time, the efficiency and quantity are actually far inferior to B&Bs，On the one hand, B&Bs mainly develop existing idle houses scattered around the country，The flexibility and space volume are better than those of hotels；On the other hand, the expandable area of ​​hotels such as Gaoxing Hotel is also relatively limited，Although the market is not yet saturated，But the area space is not very large，The giants can’t get even one point，This is also one of the reasons why hotel groups seek cooperation with real estate developers，Another important point is，The hotel’s operating return cycle is relatively long，Heavy investment，Restricts the efficiency of new development。

Specific to Airbnb，The global housing development space and supply chain advantages it has formed，And the platform aggregation effect formed，Let them continue to have room for imagination in increasing the size of their properties。

By extension，Airbnb from B&B to hotel，Then to the expansion of long-term rental apartments，One of the major demands is to continue to expand the scale of housing，Scale is the right to speak，At the same time, Airbnb’s multiple content or products have stronger platform attributes，Meet the needs of different consumers or the same type of consumers for different accommodation products，Helps convert existing passenger flow into greater benefits，And new listings with different attributes will also help attract more traffic，Enlarge the number of users，Bring more trading volume。

The cyclical effect of traffic monetization and business diversification，This is the more obvious logic。

3、Airbnb started as a homestay，Continued to develop hotels、Local travel experience and other services，Expand supply of accommodation products，Lengthen the consumption chain in terms of tourism consumption experience，Taking accommodation products as the core，Linked to more travel services，Including considerable penetration in local life services，Forms the core of the platform、Diversified supply system，Not only tourist consumption，Business travelers will also become a precipitated customer group，With low frequency、High frequency、Long chain and other consumption characteristics。These elements will form a recycling effect。

The logic is not complicated either，As a platform with a large number of accommodation products，Airbnb has a huge user base，Experience the scene、Links to travel products and more，It is an extension of its own products and services，Provide more operating income possibilities，More personalized products at the same time、Comprehensive services to enhance user stickiness, etc.。These will help Airbnb tell more and bigger "stories" after listing。

Behind Airbnb’s high market value，In fact, it corresponds to the series connection of the huge stock of houses in the world、Aggregation and operational appreciation，There are also tourism services behind the core entrance with accommodation products、Expandable market space such as local life services，In this track，Airbnb has many advantages。

The war in the accommodation field is “not over yet”

Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky once said，Airbnb has become unfocused，There are so many things you want to do when your business is successful，He only “awakened” after the epidemic crisis came，To re-examine the company’s business，We need to slim down our business，Find out what 188bet online sports betting matters most to your company，Then stay tuned。

Early May last year，Brian Chesky said，The company has stopped investing in the relatively small but promising hotel business，That is, stopping hotel business expansion。

There was another news before，Airbnb’s destination activity business Airbnb Experiences may also be temporarily “cancelled”，One reason is that it is still in the stage of continuous losses，Even before the epidemic。In addition, competition in this field has intensified，It is normal to deal with expediency during the epidemic。

This is when facing the uncertainty of the epidemic，Seeking a business focus、Controllable certainty。

However，The two sides of the matter are reflected in，The “downsizing” of Airbnb’s business，On the one hand, it will be possible to pass the accommodation scene、The long chain of business that accommodation platforms and other platforms can bring、Ecological layering，The imagination space brought to the capital market has been compressed，its market share、All areas covered will be affected；On the other hand，It may also inhibit your ability to "invade" the competitor's field，Let competitors get more opportunities，such as Booking、Expedia。

As Airbnb’s number one competitor，Booking and Airbnb have about the same number of short-term rental accommodations，But the number of guest rooms in its hotel is not comparable to the latter。Refer to September 2018 data，The number of Booking hotel rooms at that time was 22 million，Airbnb only has 200,000 properties。

From the perspective of business model，Booking’s income largely depends on the commission income brought by the agency model、Product price difference income in wholesale mode，The latter accounts for about 25%，The former is the key，The risk is also relatively lower，But the demand side is shrinking，Cancellation and refund for high-value orders，The backlog loss of the original "inventory" products, etc.。

Booking’s main business covers hotels (accommodation)、ticket、Vacation、Car rental, catering, etc.。But its financial report shows，87% of Booking’s revenue in fiscal years 2018 and 2019 came from the online accommodation booking service business，Other online travel services including air tickets、Vacation、Any business such as car rental accounts for less than 10% of the company’s revenue。Among them 2019，Booking hotel room nights up to 8.4.5 billion，11 year-on-year increase.2%，The number of ticket reservations is only 7 million，Zero growth year-on-year。

In other words，Booking relies on accommodation business， At the same time, the entire business relies on offline consumption，The chain affects directly。This has become one of the factors that contributes to its high epidemic crisis，

However，Airbnb also has similar problems，Accommodation business is its core dependency，Including destination experience business revenue is not listed separately。Compared，booking’s OTA platform attributes，Although the accommodation business is relatively prominent，But its ticket、Rent a car、"One-stop" service formed by accommodation，The diversification of business is more outstanding than Airbnb。

Back in July 2018，Booking chief marketing officer Pepijin Rijvers once said，China’s e-commerce is very different from other countries。E-commerce in many countries is search-oriented。And Ctrip、Meituan、Tmall/Taobao、JD.com is a demand-oriented platform。This also gives us more ideas，That is, gradually growing into a comprehensive platform，Enables customers to book various products on our platform。

Even so，Booking’s market value is still less than Airbnb，What is the reason？One of them is to look at the future，Airbnb’s space to expand listings、Diversified accommodation products，will be a key factor in its growth potential，This is the core，Link to local travel experience、Consumption circle formed by life services, etc.，It will be a big test whether it can tell a new story。