Mid-Autumn Festival has passed for several days，Major industry media have reproduced the Mid-Autumn Festival travel data released by the China Tourism Academy。

Mid-Autumn Festival 3 days，The total number of domestic tourism trips nationwide is 8815.930,000 people，Restored to 87 during the Mid-Autumn Festival in 2019 on a comparable basis.2%。Realize domestic tourism revenue 371.4.9 billion yuan，Restored to 78 during the Mid-Autumn Festival in 2019 on a comparable basis.6%。

I believe all colleagues in the industry are like me，A black man with a question mark on his face。Where are the tourists in the data？I dare to imagine，&ldquo in official data;Domestic Travel”Should include city tour、Surrounding Tour、Provincial travel、Sum of inter-provincial travel data，The proportion of each sub-data decreases in order。

According to this statistical range，I myself have become a tourist during the Mid-Autumn Festival，Early on the 21st，I drove more than 30 kilometers with my children to an internet celebrity park in another district of Shenzhen，Play until afternoon and go home，Consumption includes highway tolls、Parking fee、Meals and snacks for children, etc.。

Zhihui asked me to publish a manuscript and asked me to express my views on the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day market，The Mid-Autumn Festival is over now，Will there be any surprises on National Day？In addition to giving my answer below，Also attached is my reason，and suggested work directions。
——Xiao Yuanshan

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Recently, various universities have announced holiday notices for National Day，All colleges and universities have reduced their vacation time，Hope to keep college students locally，Stay on campus。

This signal is the epitome of the customer mentality under the current epidemic，I don’t care if you can travel，But the situation must be stable and controllable。

So I think，What insiders think“Travel”Market，There is a high probability that National Day will continue to be dull，Except the following sections，It will become a market hot spot that the media is eager to report on，Used to highlight the prosperity of this industry。

① Universal Studios and other top IPs

Needless to say how popular Universal Studios is，But as a top IP，What they bring to China’s cultural tourism industry，Not just an amusement park，And its Harry Potter、Minion、Transformers、Jurassic World and other idols。

&ldquo which has become popular on short video platforms recently;Talkaway”Megatron，Prove that Universal Studios does not“I have a big IP, who should I be afraid of?”’s attitude，Instead, he handed over a top-notch marketing planning case。

Picture source: Bilibili website

The cost of them using several actors and voice changers，Gained tens of billions of impressions，Let tourists who are not Transformers fans also go there，According to news reports，Queue time for taking photos with Megatron，It has been 2 hours。

This skillful use of media communication，It can keep Universal Studios popular for a while，Needless to say, the National Day will be overcrowded。Other 188bet app download traditional scenic spots in China where big IPs wait for food，This is really an excellent learning case。

Disney、Chimelong、Fangte and other urban tourism consumption places with IP attributes，There is a high probability that the National Day will also be very popular。

② Internet celebrity cities to check in

Internet celebrity is not an empty name，Can detonate the entire network traffic，There must be content with enough dissemination power，For example, Megatron mentioned above，Another example is Wen Heyou who is planning an IPO。

So Changsha、Chengdu、Xi’an、Chongqing, one of the internet celebrity cities that has not been directly affected by the epidemic，National Day will also be a“People follow the crowd”’s status，Curiosity is almost all young people’s attitude towards the world。

Those cities that are already famous on the Internet，In order to continue to fill the content that makes young people curious，Magic 8D’s Chongqing moved the indoor script to the outdoors，Use the whole city as a theater during the National Day，Create an unprecedented large-scale immersive tourism activity。

Destination cities that don’t have Internet celebrities really need to work hard，When you are still looking for your own Hongya Cave and delicious tea，He went to the front again。

③ Surrounding first and second tier cities

Except theme parks and internet celebrity cities，All beaches around first and second tier cities、Countryside、Farm……Under the restriction of not leaving the province，It will definitely explode on National Day，I remembered again the four hours I was blocked in Shuangyue Bay, Huizhou during the summer vacation。

Based on the National Day B&B booking situation reported by peers，Also verified this，Especially high-end B&Bs with a unit price of more than 1,000 yuan around big cities，It’s hard to find a room。

In fact, this is also the pain point of current peripheral travel，The travel scope of high-spending customers is compressed within the province or even the city，However, surrounding tourism resources do not fully meet the needs of high-spending customers，Take Shenzhen as an example，In urgent need of supply-side reform and product improvement。

No matter if the highway is blocked，Bad service，People with 7 days of vacation，Always find a place to relax，As long as the epidemic is not over，Surrounding tours will occupy the basic market of tourism consumption。

There is no reason to look forward to National Day

Theme Park、City leisure vacation、Short-term peripheral travel，Except for the above three types of products that are sure to be popular during the National Day but are hardly related to travel agencies，It may be difficult for colleagues in the tourism industry to have expectations，What is the problem？

Some media from the same industry raised the issue a few days ago，Education Department“Initiative”、Local Government“Encouragement”Not leaving the province、Not traveling far，It is the root cause of the passive situation of travel agencies。

Photo source: People's Daily Online

My personal opinion，This is just one aspect，At least he has left school long ago，Even“Leave”Retired man from the workplace，Does not fall within the scope of this constraint，There are two other reasons worthy of attention。

① The panic of ordinary people

Harbin takes over from Putian to become a new epidemic-prone place，Confirmed case No. 1 who returned from overseas became the target of online violence，It can be seen that some ordinary people still have an excessive attitude towards the epidemic。

This kind of extreme，Not only does it treat confirmed cases that are implemented in accordance 188bet app with the national epidemic prevention policy as "ldquo;Poison King”，Also manifested in the panic mentality of feeling something bad at the slightest disturbance anywhere。

I see it often，Below the news about the number of confirmed cases of the epidemic in a certain place，There are quite a few“Keyboard Warrior”A heartfelt message urging everyone to stay at home，New coronavirus pneumonia with a fatality rate close to zero，They also treat them as blood drops that seal their throats when they see blood。

I believe there are many such cases around you，I believe there are many such cases around you;Epidemic Area”，I advise you not to go。Recently I heard a colleague complain，There is a tour group departing from Guangdong and taking the train to Zhejiang departing after the National Day，Because of the epidemic in Fujian，Tourists are worried about the discoloration of the itinerary code when passing through Fujian，So they quit the group one after another，It is planned to pass through a certain place by expressway or high-speed rail，Don’t get off the expressway or the train，There is no record of the trip code。

The improvement of this mentality，On the one hand, the media needs to strengthen science popularization among ordinary people，Dynamic scientific understanding of the new coronavirus，On the other hand，National level epidemic prevention strategy，Maybe it’s time to adjust，Continue to promote vaccines to reduce serious illness and fatality rates，Strengthen hierarchical prevention and control and increase designated treatment institutions，As long as there is no medical rush，The new coronavirus is becoming less and less scary。

Before this beautiful wish comes true，There are still many people who choose to stay at home，Stay local，Especially the elderly who are the main force in long-term travel on weekdays。

② More people are downgrading their consumption

The party and the country have long-sightedly proposed to achieve common prosperity，We must continue to strengthen the role of secondary distribution and tertiary distribution，In fact, after the epidemic，The central government has seen that the pockets of middle-income people are getting smaller and smaller。

Prices have been rising，But income is basically declining，Traveling is not about eating, dressing, and seeing a doctor，If you can go out one less time, just one less time。

Not to mention everyone’s income plummeted after our industry suffered a huge blow，I see that the industries that many of my friends around Shenzhen are engaged in are also being severely affected。

First，Manufacturing or high energy-consuming industries，After the carbon neutrality goal is determined，Power cuts have become the norm，There is an order but no electricity for production，How do you want the factory to make money？

Second，The cross-border e-commerce boomed last year，China’s production capacity after the epidemic is the envy of the world，Overseas purchasing volume has increased significantly，Many people who do cross-border business have made a lot of money。But starting from this year，Friends who do cross-border business tell me，There are 10 times more merchants who have switched careers elsewhere，The shortage of shipping capacity has led to a 10-fold increase in transportation costs，Factory power restrictions will start from summer vacation，Seeing that the peak of foreign consumption at the end of the year is coming，Now there is no goods to sell and no work to do。

Rational thinking，These are actually the last resort pains caused by the transformation of the country’s development direction，But labor pains 188bet app download are also painful，I believe all our colleagues in the industry understand this，Just“Pain”Our industry is not just one of them。

Before the transformation is completed and the industry returns to rapid development，We must understand objectively，The total number of high-end customers decreased，Weaker demand from mid-range customers，The market needs more cost-effective travel products。

③ Administrative constraints within the system

Everyone has complained about this a lot，It has indeed become the &ldquo of the tourism industry;Thousands of people point it out”。

Put yourself in someone else’s shoes，The accountability mechanism for superiors and subordinates will not change，We can’t blame the decision-makers for being too ruthless，After all，For a principal，National Day holiday or no holiday，It has no effect on him，If you don’t take a break during National Day，Just take the winter vacation in advance。

But if it’s because of the holiday，Whenever a student returns to school with the new coronavirus，This principal is in big trouble，Let’s be the principal，In fact, I also make decisions like this。

The local government does not engage in“One size fits all”Accountability，is the key to solving the problem of excessive prevention and control in the education sector，Don’t teachers want to use the winter and summer vacations to take a vacation or go out for further studies？

Think reversely，Practitioners in long-term destinations，Is it possible to temporarily shelve parent-child travel products，This autumn and winter, after the National Day, there will be no more holidays，Two sporadic epidemics that come and go，It is estimated that it will be difficult for the education department to let go，The winter vacation coincides with the Winter Olympics，There is a high probability that he will not relax。

Then what can we do

Autumn and winter are the periods of high incidence of infectious diseases，Isn’t it true that the temperature in Shenzhen is still 30°Above，The school is promoting influenza vaccination，Will the more difficult new coronavirus disappear?？This assumption does not need to be considered at all。

Then we can expect the education department and local government to uniformly follow the requirements of the National Prevention and Control Headquarters，Only take "adoption" measures for inter-provincial tourism in areas with medium and high risks;Breaking”，Are there green lights for low-risk areas?？I think it was also difficult before the Winter Olympics。

You can’t save the travel agency by waiting，Be down-to-earth and combine your own advantages to find new entry points for transformation，This is the life-saving straw，I especially understand the discomfort everyone encounters in this process，But people and teams who can break themselves and start over again at any time，The one who can make things happen。

① Be a source of local customers

I have written many articles before，We must treat urban micro vacations and surrounding rural tours as core products，It will be the basic market of the industry in the future。But many colleagues listened but did not take action，Everyone said in unison: The profit is too low。

Hmm，If we still stand from the perspective of a middleman，The most transparent information、These products with the most diverse channels，The profits left for middlemen are basically between 10-15%，plus low unit price，You may not earn 500 yuan by accepting 10 customers。

The problem is，Why we can only be middlemen，It is also a good choice to lean upstream，Let me give you two familiar cases。

P from Hangzhou has always 188bet app been my old friend for more than 10 years，He began to transform into a trampoline theme park in 2018，Use one store to try in the early stage，Using all his years of experience in online distribution of travel products，Already in Hangzhou for 3 years、Opened 3 stores in Zhuhai，The original tourism business was basically abandoned after the epidemic。

Except for the period last spring when it was closed，The rest of the time will have no impact like meals and drinks，According to him，Ten million investment in one store，You can get your money back in less than 2 years。

Someone said，An investment of over RMB 10 million per store is too high，Not to mention that Mr. P also took investment from others，Let’s look at another one with a lower investment threshold，Projects with shorter payback period。

In July I led a team to Huizhou to inspect a beach camp，The manager, Mr. Z, settled an account with us，If you ignore the site and labor costs，Calculated based on a fixed investment of just over 10,000 per tent，If the price is 7-8 hundred, it will only take half a month“Full House”You can get your money back，In fact, every weekend during the summer vacation is fully booked，The non-weekend occupancy rate is also about 50%。

No wonder so many people want to make outdoor camping products，The payback cycle is really too fast，Of course there will be many problems if everyone swarms together，But these problems may not be difficult to overcome the survival crisis of middlemen？

President P has repeatedly encouraged me to switch to the local market，It is actually the same logic as being a tourist。I will also lend flowers to Buddha and pass them on to everyone，They are all doing services，It’s all about creating products，Do we have to distinguish whether the consumer is local or out of town？

② Travel within the province is not equal to travel around the province

This formulation is a gain from my inspection in the Three Gorges in the first half of the month，Especially for colleagues in larger provinces。

Already mentioned above，The surrounding tour schedule is too short, so the profit is too low，But the current scope of most bans，Not leaving the province。

First use some data to clarify the concept，Before the interruption of free travel in Taiwan，This was one of our main destinations at that time，Customized solutions we make for customers，The minimum date is 5 days，The maximum visa validity period is 15 days。I believe friends who have traveled to Taiwan Province，Most schedules are scheduled for 7-10 days。But do you know how big the area of ​​Taiwan Province is?？Only 3.60,000 square kilometers。

What about Chongqing, which we often look at as a city？As the largest municipality in China，It has 8.20,000 square kilometers，That is, it is as big as more than 2 Taiwan provinces，It takes 5 hours to drive from the main city to Baidi City at the entrance of the Three Gorges。Where is Guangdong？180,000 square kilometers，Where is Zhejiang？There are also 10.50,000 square kilometers。

if 3.Taiwan Province with 60,000 square kilometers can design in-depth tour products of more than 10 days，First of all, geographical volume，Excluding Beijing, Shanghai and Tianjin，There is room for product exploration for long-term travel in the province。

What Fengjie Wushan in the Three Gorges region means to local tourists in Chongqing，There is also enough cultural heritage and experience content to be explored，The Three Gorges is not just what we see when we take a boat along the Yangtze River。Similarly，The hidden town of Zhanjiang and the holy land of delicious food, Chaoshan，For local tourists in the Pearl River Delta，There are also products that can 188bet online sports betting be designed with a minimum length of 3-4 days。

There is also the last secret place in Jiangnan、Lishui, with few people, beautiful scenery and good air，It is enough for tourists from Hangzhou in northern Zhejiang to spend 4-5 days here，Stay in a high-end B&B，Understand the customs of the She people，Taste southern Zhejiang cuisine。

Travel within the province is not equal to travel around the province，What’s missing is good products，And the marketing highlights that triggered this product，When no one leaves the province，We can also make the intra-provincial tourism business flourish。

Theoretically, the one with the best chance of long-term travel within the province，It is Sichuan that ranks among the top in the country in terms of population and provincial area，Consumption level is sufficient，God’s doting on the land of heaven is evident。

③ Downsize and do your best to create content

I don’t want to be a resource provider，What should I do if the province cannot find good products？Let’s take a look at a piece of news first。

September 24，Adjustment of Tongcheng Travel organizational structure，Establishment of accommodation and local consumption、Travel、Three business groups of content and vacation。The internal letter reads: “Establishment of content and vacation platform business group，Through the creation of travel content ecology，Explore“Attention Economy”Closed loop from consumption decision to transaction。”

Tongcheng, who has repeatedly become the focus of the industry after the epidemic，After Ctrip and Fliggy successively claimed to devote themselves to content production，It seems that the shortcomings in the content will be made up this time。

It’s worth noting，Tongcheng puts content and vacation in one business group，It is the decision-making information source for vacation products，More output from travel content，This is of great reference value for travel agencies that also focus on vacation products。

Downsizing business positions，Gather the whole company’s efforts to create content，It is also a path that can be chosen now。A colleague from Beijing whom I know，It only took half a month，The hot spot with the opening of Universal Studios，The video posted on Douyin has tens of millions of views+，Attract 5000+ fans。

Output content and personalize it，After accumulating enough fans，You don’t even have to develop the product yourself，Just find an excellent product and cooperate with it。

Any industry will have a new wave of dividends every few years，The last time was OTA around 2015，This time it is undoubtedly short video and live broadcast，Are we going to do what Jack Ma said“Invisible、Look down、Can’t understand、Too late”person？

Summary

Last year’s National Day was a watershed moment for the tourism industry，Proposed by President Dai Bin of China Tourism Academy;三去”，has become an industry consensus，It has popularized for everyone what roads may not work。

This year’s National Day is due to the ongoing epidemic，Maybe not as lively as last year，But new opportunities in this industry have emerged，It’s just who is willing to grasp it，And whether you can grasp it。

The epidemic has passed for more than 600 days，Enough for us to complete a series of actions from thinking to layout to transformation，New tourism practitioners after changes，You will also get new returns in the new dividends。

This industry，Only those who don’t believe in God and don’t complain about fate，A business owner with a flexible mind and quick action，If you must feel sorry for yourself，Think of the factory owner who started working without 188bet app electricity，Or training teachers who have no classes to attend。

When the times leave behind the laggards，Never say hello。