Consumer market performance，Always a hot topic that attracts much attention。

Since this year，Whether it is the slowdown in the growth rate of monthly social consumer retail sales，People’s overall willingness to consume is still not strong enough，Or“Quietly”’s 618 Shopping Festival，It seems to confirm the downturn of the consumer market，Someone even shouted “Consumption downgrade”’s voice。

Is this really the case?？In my opinion，There is actually a lot of deep information behind the phenomenon that is worth thinking about and exploring，Want to objectively understand the current situation of my country’s consumer market，Maybe we can get inspiration from Japan, which is separated by a river。

The reason why we chose Japan，Because China and Japan have great differences in human geography、Lifestyle habits、There are similarities in many aspects such as urban pattern and economic development process。The previous consumption changes experienced by Japanese residents，Can be used as an excellent reference sample，Help us understand more clearly the evolution logic of the Chinese consumer market。

About the consumption changes of Japanese residents，There is a book called "The Fourth Era of Consumption" that is widely circulated，The author is Miura Exhibition, a Japanese consumer society research expert。This book is based on extremely detailed data and information，A systematic description of the consumption status of Japanese residents in different periods。

Follow Miura Exhibition’s description，Japan experienced the first times from 1912 to 1974、The second consumption era，The continuous advancement of urbanization，Let Japan’s economy enter a period of rapid development，The progress of industrialization has also allowed mass-produced goods to gradually penetrate into every corner of residents’ lives，Consumption is also controlled by the "ldquo" of the once small elite group;Exclusive behavior”，Evolved into a right that every household can enjoy。

And since 1975，With the further development of economy and society and the continuous improvement of residents’ income，The general public“Consume for yourself”’s consciousness is gradually awakening，Japan’s consumer unit has also begun to shift from families to individuals，Personalization、Branding、High-end、Experiential consumption is growing rapidly，The third era of consumption is coming。The main consumer force during this period is called“New Human Generation”，They 188bet app download were born in the 1960s，Home appliances have been popularized since childhood，I am born with a richer material foundation than my parents，Also has a stronger desire to consume，Plus pursuing fashion、Advocating individuality、This is due to the focus on experience and other features，They love LV bags、Channel Belt、Hermes scarves and other luxury goods have a natural passion for consumption。

Actually，Japan in the third consumption era is already in a highly developed social state，Almost everyone has absolute freedom of consumption，Be able to fully choose the one that suits you best、The product that best suits your sensibility，There is a kind of“Living in Japan and enjoying European and American consumer life”feeling。

However, this situation was completely changed in 2011.

March 11, 2011，Occurrence scale in the northeastern waters of Japan 9.0 major earthquake，Subsequently triggered a horrific tsunami that far exceeded expectations，A wave of more than 10 meters high hit Iwate with lightning speed、Miyagi and Fukushima coastal areas，Causing immeasurable losses，This disaster severely damaged Japan’s national economy and industrial system，It has brought great harm and impact to the people's body and mind。

So in the following days，The Japanese people’s ideas are quietly changing: looking at the factories、Houses and cars were destroyed or swept away by waves，Many people truly feel that the &ldquo in these material possessions;How much emptiness and risk it contains”，In addition, at that time“End of separation”’s trend has been popular in Japan for some time，So“3&188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino middot;11 major earthquake”Afterwards，Many Japanese people are beginning to re-examine the meaning of life and wealth，They gradually no longer pursue individualism in their daily consumption，No longer focus on comparison and enjoyment of materials and brands，Choose simplicity more rationally、De-branded and more cost-effective products。

To this point，Japan officially enters the “The fourth era of consumption”。

In fact，As early as around 2005，The signs of the fourth consumer era have already appeared in Japan，This is due to the long-term sluggishness of economic growth and the deepening of population aging，It makes it difficult for Japanese people to have a lasting and crazy enthusiasm for famous brands and luxury goods，Especially due to the rapid economic development in the early years，Japanese families generally have everything they need，Not to mention that the elderly generally admire the simplicity and practicality of goods，Even young people，Their kind“Buy buy buy”’s mood has also dropped a lot compared to the previous generation。So，Pursue rationality、The concept of simplicity and cost-effectiveness gradually spreads like a spark，And this trend is due to the“3&188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino middot;11 major earthquake”And got a deeper strengthening。

can be considered，Although this major earthquake did not introduce Japan into ";The fourth era of consumption”14422_14427，But it is an extremely important trigger。

In the words of Haruki Murakami: “You who escaped from the sandstorm，You are no longer the same person you were when you entered the sandstorm。”

Japanese experience，For understanding the current consumption situation in my country，Obviously revealing。

If GDP per capita and population aging are used as measurement indicators，Easy to find，my country’s current per capita GDP is roughly equivalent to Japan’s level in 1985，The aging of the population is equivalent to that of Japan in the early 1990s。Considering that per capita GDP is related to the economic basis of residents’ consumption，The demographic structure behind the aging of the population can reflect people’s spending power and habits，It is not difficult to conclude that my country's residents' consumption is generally close to Japan's ";The third era of consumption”。

This conclusion is also consistent with people’s cognition。Looking back in history，Reform and opening up to now，my country’s economy continues to grow at a rapid pace，Social material wealth is becoming increasingly abundant，The quality of life of residents is also constantly improving，Reflected on the consumption level, it is from solving the problem of food and clothing to ";New and old three items”Alternate，From home appliances、The rise of car consumption to the best-selling luxury goods。Accompanied by“Millennials”With the growing maturity of Generation Z，The unique educational experience and growth experience have created their pursuit of individuality、Fresh, exciting and diverse、High quality、Characteristics of experiential consumption，And it accounts for more than 30% of the total population，Determined their ability to lead the current personalization、The rise of diversified consumer demands，And put forward higher requirements for the quality of goods and services——These characteristics，All in line with Japan’s“The third era of consumption”。

It’s worth noting，With Japan“3&188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino middot;11 major earthquake”Similar to external shocks，The occurrence of the new coronavirus epidemic，It seems to be subtly changing our country’s consumption pattern。

Early 2020，The sudden new crown epidemic once brought a huge impact to our country’s consumer market，With strong social mobilization ability and execution ability，The whole country is united as one，Fight the epidemic together，Our country quickly controlled the epidemic in a short period of time，The economy has also recovered rapidly。However, since the end of last year，Highly contagious due to the Omicron variant、The influence of characteristics such 188bet app download as fast propagation speed，The difficulty of epidemic prevention and control has greatly increased，Frequent outbreaks occur in many places in China，Shanghai and other cities even came to a standstill。This way，Isolated at home、Logistics supply chain interruption、Under the combined influence of the suspension of operations of offline consumption places and other factors，my country’s consumer market has shown obvious weakness in recent months。

Not only that，The recurrence of the epidemic has also brought some deep-seated impacts:

One piece，Since the epidemic，The income recovery progress of high, middle and low-income people has appeared“K type”Signs of differentiation，The income recovery rate of high-income groups is significantly higher than that of low-income groups，The income gap among residents has also been further magnified to a certain extent (see "Why people don’t like to consume anymore》);

Two items，Business operations are under pressure，Especially small, medium and micro enterprises with poor risk resistance，Some companies are forced to lay off employees for the purpose of increasing revenue and reducing expenditure，Resulting in an increase in unemployment，Many people have lost their stable source of income，We are also cautious in our expectations for the future；

Three items，Quite a few people，its mortgage、Large rigid expenditures such as rent have not decreased，It increases the pressure even more，Becoming more and more sensitive to product prices。

So it seems，Although the "new crown epidemic";Destructive power”Far less simple and crude than the Japanese earthquake and tsunami，But it’s enough to scare many people。Affected by this，The mentality of more and more consumers has changed: they have become more rational in their consumption decisions，Except the brand，But also from quality、Channel、Price、In-depth exploration in multiple dimensions including after-sales service，The ultimate goal is to pursue higher cost performance——This is what the media calls ";Research-oriented consumer”。

Many examples can support this point of view.

For example, not long ago，One“Why are young people reluctant to change their mobile phones?”’s topic became a hot search topic，Many young netizens gave various reasons。And in the final analysis，Except for mobile phone manufacturers’ lack of innovation in new phones，The more important reason is the impact of the epidemic，Young people’s consumer confidence is declining，Saving awareness is also increasing，In the decision-making process of purchasing a mobile phone，They are also becoming more and more rational and restrained，No longer pursue new brand machines as in the past，“If you can use it, use it first”，Cause the phone from“Fast moving consumer goods”Gradually turned into“Durable Goods”。

There are many similar 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino situations，Behind many phenomena is the fact that during the epidemic, ";Education”Under，Many people’s consumption concepts have changed，Consumers who originally advocated cost-effective products have become more determined，Consumers who were still pursuing personalized products and famous brands have begun to consciously downplay their obsession with brand premiums，Pay more attention to the quality of goods，Compared with these before the epidemic，Obviously there is a difference。

Because of this，We may think that，Driven by the epidemic，Some Chinese people are moving toward “The fourth era of consumption”A big step forward。

At this point, someone may ask: From the third era of consumption to the fourth era of consumption，Is this considered a consumption downgrade?？

In my opinion，This does not prove the arrival of consumption downgrade。The reason is，Determine whether consumption is upgraded，Commodity price is not the only indicator，But it should be based on examining whether consumer welfare has been improved；And the so-called“Consumer Benefits”，In addition to the well-known increase in total consumption、In addition to optimization of consumption structure and other contents，It should also cover the improvement of consumer quality、Rich consumption content、Diversification of consumption patterns、Maturity of consumer mentality and many other categories。

In fact，In recent years, the wave of domestic consumption upgrading has been surging，Many people have adapted to the consumption rhythm of pursuing well-known brands or high-quality goods。But affected by the epidemic，The income and wealth of some people have declined to a certain extent.;Shrink”，But their admiration for high-quality products has not stopped，Still want to buy high-quality products at lower prices，So they no longer blindly pursue brand-name goods and luxury goods，But pay more attention to cost performance，This is actually a reflection of a more mature consumer mentality。

What needs to be reminded is，Under the evolution of this trend，Domestic brands are expected to usher in new development opportunities。

If you look at Japan’s experience，Easy to find，When the four consumption eras advocating simplicity are beginning to emerge，Luxury is prevalent throughout the country，People are immersed in the pursuit of fashion、In the wave of taste and European and American famous brands，Local brands Uniqlo and Muji have suddenly emerged as new forces，Both of them focus on practicality、Depersonalized products，Although it went against the mainstream positioning at the time，But riding on the momentum of the fourth consumer era, it is making great progress，And popular from home to overseas，Become an internationally renowned brand。The practices of UNIQLO and MUJI also tell the world，Not only Gucci and LV are the correct 188bet app ways to open a business empire，Brands that focus on simplicity and cost-effectiveness can also build new business empires。

For our country，Now the post-95 generation、Generation Z, represented by the post-00 generation, is becoming increasingly mature，And is becoming the dominant force in the consumer market，Because their growth experience coincided with a period of rapid economic development in China，They tend to have stronger cultural self-confidence，Easier to accept local brands。At the same time，During the epidemic, the whole country united to fight the epidemic，It has further strengthened the national cohesion and cultural identity of the Chinese people。Also，Under the new development ideas;domestic circulation”Under the new development ideas，We will rely more on our own strength to seek development，These are important for the rise of local brands，This is a rare and historic opportunity。

Predictably，Under the changes and drive of demand，A new round of&ldquo in the future;Chinese products trend”will continue to be popular，Especially“Quality Revolution”It is expected to be further accelerated，This will also drive all-round upgrading of the industry，Including product research and development、Creative Design、Performance Control、Product packaging、Every aspect of marketing；Meanwhile，Local brands are also expected to catch up quickly，Pay more attention to product quality and value creation，Continuously improve product added value and competitiveness，And is expected to shine in seizing the commanding heights of future markets and industry competition。

Near future，Will there be commercial miracles similar to UNIQLO and MUJI born in China？We will wait and see。