With the improvement of industry structure，Additional macro policy promotion，Consumption upgrade is expected to accelerate。The lipstick effect may be confirmed again after China enters the new economic normal。The search popularity of “lipstick” in Baidu search index continues to increase，Luxury products、High-end products will become the mainstream products for consumption upgrade， “Love beauty、Fear of death、Lack of love” will become the three major driving forces to promote consumption transformation and upgrading in 2017。

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From the perspective of capital securitization in the industry，We believe that the optional consumer industry that corresponds to the concept of consumption upgrading still has considerable room for development。The market value of consumer discretionary companies on the Nasdaq Global Select Market accounts for up to 21%，Second only to the information technology industry。The A-share market is now only 13%。

1.2.The State Council’s policy is released，Policy support for consumption upgrade remains unchanged

November 28, 2016，"Opinions of the General Office of the State Council on Further Expanding Consumption in the Fields of Tourism, Culture, Sports, Health, Elderly Care, Education and Training" is officially released，Specific support planning and implementation in related fields。This document highlights culture、Travel、Specific development goals for sports and other industries，It has important guiding significance for the development direction of the industry in the short and medium term。

2.Lipstick popularity continues to increase，The transformation of consumer psychology implies investment opportunities

2.1. The popularity of lipstick increased significantly in 2016

The search popularity of “lipstick” in Baidu search index continues to increase。In comparison，The “bag” that is the focus of women’s topics is generally popular。We can compare the search volume of luxury goods “LV”，And the search volume of the noble “YSL” in lipstick，It was found that the latter surged significantly in 2016。

2.2.The effect of lipstick may be confirmed again，The transformation of consumer psychology implies investment opportunities

“Lipstick effect” is a proper term in economics。Economists call the special economic phenomenon of rising trends in some industries during economic downturns the "lipstick effect"。This interesting economic phenomenon occurs in the United States，Whenever the economy is down，Similar to lipstick、Stockings、Sales of facial masks 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino and other products will rise sharply。This trend corresponds to an interesting economic phenomenon，Called "Lipstick Effect"，Also called "low-price product preference trend"。As a relatively cheap “luxury product”，The more expensive lipstick only costs a few hundred yuan，Plays a "comforting" role for consumers。

We think，The lipstick effect may be confirmed again after China enters the new economic normal。Under this trend，We need to pay special attention to grasping the changes in consumer psychology under the "lipstick effect"。Luxury products、High-end products will become the mainstream products for consumption upgrade。Different from luxury goods，Affordable luxury goods or high-end goods are not a means of dividing classes，It’s not just about showing off your wealth；It pursues more cost-effectiveness、Emotional links and comparability。

Take the flower O2O business that became popular in 2016 as an example，The market space for affordable luxury goods is gradually opening up。“Take some time” is a typical representative of Flowers O2O。The company mainly uses the WeChat public platform for communication and sales，The core model is “providing flower purchasing services to urban white-collar women”。This platform will launch a bouquet of themed flowers every week，Users can place orders directly to purchase，You can also make flower reservations by month/quarter/year。It targets urban white-collar lady user groups，Choose flowers as the entry point，Develop the habit of self-pleasuring consumption，Open the female market worth hundreds of millions。

Online since October 2015，Currently accumulated more than 2 million users，Among them，Eighty percent of users are women。The company has received several rounds of investment，Investors include Tsingshan Capital、Plum Blossom Angel、Qingliu Capital、and other well-known investment institutions，The financing amount has not been disclosed yet.

“Take some time” is a typical representative of this consumption upgrade，The category is an expansion of traditional consumer categories，High cost performance，Integrated with the Internet，Focus on emotional links。We believe that products and services similar to this type of consumer goods will gradually emerge，Guiding a new round of consumption upgrading boom。

3.“Love beauty、Fear of death、The psychology of "lack of love" promotes consumption transformation and upgrading

Consumer psychology has quietly changed，而“Love beauty、Fear of death、Lack of love” are several important keywords in changes。

3.1. “Beauty-loving” segmentation opportunities

3.1.1. Carry out fitness to the end

The fitness industry is growing rapidly:

Modern people pay attention to health management，In recent years, Chinese people have paid special attention to the prevention of diseases through sports。According 188bet app download to the National Bureau of Statistics’ 2014 survey on people aged 20-69，51% of people in our country engage in fitness exercises。The number of people who regularly participate in physical exercise in my country continues to increase from 2009 to 2014，The number of people reached 3 in 2014.8.3 billion people，The huge fitness population will bring huge demand to the fitness industry in the future。

According to the "2016 Fitness Coach Career Development Research Report" of the State Sports General Administration，The number of fitness clubs increased by 20% in 2015，Reached 4425。

Fitness industry chain includes clubs、Studio、Internet tools and other links，The scale of gyms has reached 79 billion，According to the estimate of China Commercial Industry Research Institute，Will reach 123 billion in 2020。

Internet + fitness forms a new trend

The power of the Internet has also deeply affected the field of fitness。Based on Sohu Sports’ industry research data，The number of active users of China’s sports and fitness APPs exceeded 20 million in 2015，92 year-on-year increase.1%。The number of active users is expected to exceed 70 million in 2018。Sports and fitness APP is still in the user cultivation stage，The user base will continue to maintain rapid growth for a long time in the future。

In the context of the gradual warming of Internet + health，A number of sports and fitness apps are gradually becoming popular。KEEP fitness APP gained many fans in 2016，Rapidly expanding at a rate of almost 10 million users every two months。

3.1.2.Create your own look，Beauty is beyond words

Beauty and hairdressing, the largest industry in the tertiary industry

According to 2014 data from Qianzhan.com，The total number of active units in the hair and beauty industry nationwide is 271,400,Among them professional beauty companies (including manicure、Body) quantity is 116941,The number of professional hairdressing companies is 154459;The total number of employees is 1,190,900。Among them，Professional beauty company (including manicure、The number of employees in body beauty industry is 544,900,The number of employees in professional hairdressing companies is 646,000;The total operating income of activity units is 31，124，200 yuan。Among them，Professional beauty company (including manicure、Body) operating income is 16，588，737.36 yuan,The operating income of a professional hairdressing company is 14，535，462.64 yuan。

3.2. "Fear of Death" subdivision opportunities

3.2.1. Outbound medical treatment becomes popular, breaking the borders of resources

Three major logics will support the rapid development of the outbound tourism market

Growth in proportion of wealthy population

Survey of ninth power big data，Benefited from higher GDP growth in the three years 2013-2015、Demographic dividend、The rapid development of the capital market and other factors，End 188bet app download of 2015，China’s total personal investable assets reached 114 trillion yuan。Among them，High-net-worth individuals (people with investable assets greater than RMB 6 million (USD 1 million) and above,The investable assets include offshore assets,But not including real estate、Luxury goods, etc.) wealth accounts for approximately 41% of all personal assets，The total investment available for high-net-worth individuals reached 37 trillion yuan throughout the year。The number of high-net-worth families in my country is also growing at an average annual rate of 30%，2.01 million by the end of 2015。

Asymmetry of medical information and resources

The advantages of overseas medical care mainly focus on superb medical technology and advanced medical equipment，In addition, the medical environment and supporting facilities as well as unique clinical treatment drugs are significantly better than those in China。And China’s current medical expenditure is relatively low，Problems such as excessive concentration of medical resources，This has made China’s medical services criticized。

As you can see from the table，Low medical investment fundamentally determines the insufficient supply of medical resources in our country，It makes it more difficult for patients to see a doctor、The problem of expensive medical treatment。

The concept of outbound vacations and healthy tourism is growing

With the changes in Chinese citizens’ consumption concepts，The tourism market is becoming increasingly popular，Among them, the number of people in the outbound tourism market and comprehensive consumption continues to rise，Driving the development of outbound medical tourism。

The outbound tourism market is gradually maturing:Outbound tourism has grown rapidly since 2010，Long holiday、Plans for outbound travel during winter and summer vacations have entered thousands of households。Outbound travel prices such as travel to Korea and Japan are also gradually falling，Entering the scope of mass consumption。Outbound travel、The consumption concept of outbound shopping is gradually taking shape，Outbound travel market (such as visa、The improvement of various procedures) has laid a good foundation for the vigorous development of outbound medical care。

Based on information collected from Ctrip.com，When departing from Shanghai，The price of traveling to South Korea on weekdays is not much different from the price of traveling to Yunnan and other places in China，The cost of traveling to South Korea on certain dates is even much lower than traveling to Yunnan。

The company’s differentiated advantages are reflected in:

Senior travel agency industry experts escort；Create quality projects，Form differentiated competitive advantages；Opening up channels for high-net-worth individuals，Rio expands overseas tourism market；188bet online sports betting Good financial performance；Clear strategy，Accepted by well-known investors。

3.2.2. Increased attention to healthy food and health products

Health products, sports nutrition products

China Industrial Information Network data display，Health food refers to food with specific health functions，Suitable for consumption by specific groups of people，Has the function of regulating the body、Food not intended to treat diseases。The size of China’s health care products industry in 2014 was 161 billion，It is expected to exceed 500 billion by 2020。China’s health care products market 2012-2014 CAGR reaches 15%，Far exceeding the CAGR of 2008-2012 by 7%，Its growth is accelerating。

Healthy food

NFC Juice

NFC is the abbreviation of Not From Concentrate in English，Chinese called "non-concentrated reduced juice"，The fresh fruit is washed and squeezed out of the juice，Canned directly after instant sterilization (without concentration and recovery)，Completely retains the original fresh flavor of the fruit。

NFC as an upstart in the beverage market，Because it focuses on the concept of zero-added healthy drinks，Sought after by some fashionable white-collar workers。

Cheese and bakery market

Cheese is the concentration and essence of milk nutrition，Has high nutritional value。From the development experience of Japan and South Korea and my country’s domestic cheese production、In terms of import volume，Cheese is an important beneficiary sub-field under the trend of consumption upgrading，Expected to maintain high growth。

3.3. "Lack of Love" Segmentation Opportunities

3.3.1.More care，The "silver hair travel" market continues to grow；Giving back efforts，Medium and long-distance overseas travel is becoming more and more popular

Further development of the silver hair travel market: from the perspective of my country’s population structure，The trend of population aging is obvious。A survey by the Committee on Aging shows，At present, the number of elderly tourists in my country accounts for more than 20% of the total number of tourists in the country every year。The disposable income of the elderly is increasing year by year、More free time、Good health，These factors have stimulated the growth of their demand for tourism，And makes senior tourism the most potential blue ocean market in the current tourist market segment。

“The gift of hard work”，Medium and long-distance overseas travel is becoming more and more popular: overseas travel is one of the important ways to upgrade consumption，In recent years, it has become one of the important entertainment methods during holidays in my country。

3.2.2. Service upgrade, emphasizing emotional attributes

Focus on experience，Online and offline interaction，Let consumption happen anytime, anywhere

IKEA ordering center opens new mode: May 2016，IKEA Wenzhou ordering center 188bet app download opened in Wenzhou，Located on the commercial street on the west side of China Resources Vientiane City，Area about 1900 square meters，The ordering center known as “Little IKEA”，Can support two consumption methods: direct purchase and order order，The idea of ​​the ordering center model is to realize user experience consumption，Also avoid overweight assets，Easy to copy and expand，At the same time, it may pave the way for the e-commerce model，IKEA ordering center model may indicate a new trend in the home furnishing industry

Amazon Go payment technology has been upgraded again: Amazon Go depicts an intelligent scene of people shopping in supermarkets: people walk into Amazon's physical stores without queuing、No cashier required，You can leave after getting the goods，Then pay in the mobile app，Technology will heat up the consumer payment experience again。

Alibaba implements new retail: Alibaba’s “new retail” begins to be implemented online，Some merchants have also opened offline versions of Taobao stores。Promote the cross-border combination of online e-commerce + offline merchants。According to Nanfang.com，“Su Xing Life” is one of the offline Tmall selected malls that implements new retail。

Emphasis on service and emotional attributes

We believe that one of the most important aspects of consumption upgrade is service upgrade，How to improve consumers’ experience in the consumption process is very important。

*Source: Snowball, Author:ChickenDinner, original title "Love beauty！Fear of death！Lack of love！—Three major driving forces for consumption upgrade in 2017》。