Behind 188bet app’s US billion valuation,Is it a capital game of drumming and passing flowers?

Big Traffic Authors of 188bet app article: Liu Xuehui, Liu Yanling 2017-05-05
Existing business is blocked,New business is far away,Behind the valuation of up to 50 billion US dollars,Is the true value of 188bet app?It is still a capital game controlled by investors?

How much is 188bet app worth,This has always been a mystery in China’s capital market。

The day before the May Day holiday in 2017,188bet app Chuxing gave a new answer。188bet app completed the latest round of financing,Financing amount 5.5 billion US dollars,After this round of financing,188bet app’s valuation is as high as US billion。Compared to the US billion valuation of Terry Gou’s Hon Hai Precision Investments in 188bet app Shih in 2016,Another significant improvement。

It is reported,This round of financing mainly comes from Bank of Communications、China Merchants Bank、Four investment companies SoftBank and Silver Lake Capital。Silver Lake Capital is a new investment company,The other three companies are all historical shareholders of 188bet app。

For a startup company established less than 5 years ago,188bet app’s financing amount and capital valuation are rare in the world、It’s incredible。

50 billion US dollars,Has exceeded JD.com’s US.6 billion and NetEase’s US.9 billion,Only one step away from Baidu’s US.9 billion。Based on the valuation of a mature enterprise that has achieved large-scale profits,Give 188bet app a price-to-earnings ratio of 10 times before listing,A valuation of US billion requires US billion,That is, the net profit support of more than 30 billion。30 billion net profit、Even a net profit of 3 billion yuan is a fantasy for 188bet app, which has operational difficulties。If 188bet app is a company with very abundant operating cash flow,No company’s management is keen on significantly diluting its equity through financing。

50 188bet app US dollars,Exceeds the market value of SAIC Motor in A shares,Also surpassed BYD、The total market value of Great Wall Motors and Geely Automobile, the three best car companies in China,The 50 billion valuation is not so much the reflection of 188bet app’s true value,It is better to say that it is a capital game controlled by investors。

188bet app was born at the right time。Starting in 2013,With the popularity of smartphones、The widespread rise of mobile payment and the comprehensive rollout of 4G networks,Providing the right time and location for 188bet app’s rapid rise,Capital from all walks of life are also flocking here。When 188bet app first started,Angel investor Wang Gang started with 700,000,U.S. million in Series A,Series B 15 million US dollars,USD 100 million in Series C...

According to incomplete statistics, as of now,188bet app Company has completed thirteen financings,Over billion in total,Nearly 100 billion yuan,Created a financing record for Chinese unlisted companies。

188bet app Financing Statistics

Travel business is in the cold winter

When all kinds of capital are still crazily pushing up 188bet app’s capital valuation,188bet app’s business operations are gradually entering a cold winter。

188bet app Chuxing’s business model has natural flaws,It’s hard to get out of trouble。Price increase leads to loss of users,Loss of users leads to loss of drivers,Driver loss leads to further user loss,Fell into an endless loop with no solution。

188bet app is a bit like the group buying industry that everyone was familiar with in the past。Various group buying companies are locked in an endless price war,Price war not only makes group buying companies unable to make profits,It also causes damage to the interests of merchants。And users have no loyalty to the group buying platform,Just watching the prices circulating on various platforms。Eventually most group buying websites disappeared,Only Meituan is left to transform into food delivery、Continue to struggle。

188bet app is also a bit like the dilemma of the online video industry,The user growth of video websites requires the support of high-quality content,High-quality content procurement requires high content costs,And the advertising revenue and membership payment revenue brought by the content cannot cover the high content cost,Enterprises can only reduce content procurement budgets,Reducing content procurement budget leads to lack of quality content,Lack of high-quality content causes user loss,Loss of users leads to decrease in advertising revenue,Another infinite loop。Eventually most video websites shut down,Leave only Youku、iQiyi、Tencent Video and others rely on BAT giants to make a living。

Facing the natural flaws brought by the business model,188bet app also made some attempts,In the mobile APP interface with limited capacity,Express trains are coming online one after another、Taxi、Special car、Hitchhiking、Driving、Test drive、Bus and other products,In addition to the express bus and taxi business doing well,Other products have not seen results。There is an iron law that cannot be broken in the field of brand management,Companies can only establish a clear positioning in the minds of consumers,Either you are professional in express delivery,Either you specialize in private cars,Either you are a professional driver,It is impossible for a company to swallow up all the business。Excessive category diversification,It will only damage the company’s brand value and customers’ professional understanding of the company。So,Simple category expansion cannot save 188bet app。

After the Internet travel subsidy war in 2014-2015,188bet app gradually cancels subsidies to car owners and customers,The enthusiasm of drivers and passengers is beginning to fade。"188bet app is no longer the original 188bet app"。“It’s difficult to take a taxi,The two major pain points of taking a taxi are expensive,Not even 188bet app can solve it well。

Public data display,Since the merger of 188bet app and Uber in August 2016,The number of people who open these two apps every day has dropped significantly。Among them,Last half of last year,The proportion of users who open 188bet app Chuxing every day increases from 4.5% down to 3.4%,The decline reached 27%,Uber China changed from the original 0.5% down to 0.1%。 No high subsidies,Drivers’ income has no obvious advantage over other industries,The number of active drivers has also begun to decrease sharply。No high subsidies,188bet app Express no longer has any price advantage over roadside taxis,Customers also started to lose。

The house leaked and it rained all night,In addition to the loss of drivers and passengers caused by the cancellation of subsidies,The sharp decline in travel orders is also related to the accelerated implementation of the new online car-hailing policy。October 21, 2016,Beijing、Shanghai、Guangzhou and other places have released new rules for online car-hailing policies,Online ride-hailing local household registration and local license plate have become standard in almost every city。188bet app Chuxing, which mainly relies on the private car-based model, is the first to bear the brunt。Same month,188bet app Chuxing’s name,Among the 410,000 drivers in Shanghai,Less than 3% have local Shanghai household registration。

188bet app thought the co-investor had lost Kuaidi、After quitting Uber,China’s Internet travel field will bring peace to the world,Unexpectedly,The rapid rise of shared bicycles begins to quickly squeeze 188bet app’s space。188bet app once provided such data,About 70% of travel demand is concentrated in 3 kilometers,The average frequency of 3km trips per person per day is about two times。Short-distance travel is the advantage of shared bicycles,Shorter waiting time、More freedom、Cheaper。

Looking for new stories

Failed in existing travel business,When unable to support such a high valuation,188bet app can only seek new stories。

For a new round of financing of US.5 billion,188bet app expressed its determination to expand internationalization and cutting-edge intelligent transportation technology。188bet app founder Cheng Wei said,"Become a leader in intelligent transportation technology,And promote the transformation of the world's transportation and automobile industries through active international deployment,is the core vision of 188bet app’s development。”

Globalization,188bet app Chuxing adopts the policy of vertical and horizontal cooperation to expand overseas markets。Discovered by combing,Since 2015 to present,188bet app Chuxing has invested in Grab including Southeast Asia、Lyft USA、Ola India、Brazil 99 Taxis and other travel platforms,In November last year, it announced a strategic cooperation agreement with Avis Budget Group,Jointly provide overseas car rental services to Chinese users in nearly 175 countries and regions。188bet app will face fierce competition from Uber in the international market。At the same time,The attitude towards online ride-hailing in the international market is not clear,Previously,includes South Korea、Italy、France and many other countries have banned Uber,188bet app Chuxing seems to be facing the same problem when going overseas。

In the financing news on April 28,188bet app Chuxing Representation,Relying on the advantages of artificial intelligence technology,188bet app Chuxing is ready to achieve systematic breakthroughs in smart driving and smart transportation。At present, the company has established an American research institute in Silicon Valley,To attract top scientific and technological talents,And plans to make in-depth investments in key technology areas。January this year,188bet app Chuxing founder and CEO Cheng Wei said,The world’s largest travel platform、The world’s largest driverless and new energy vehicle operator is 188bet app Chuxing’s main goal in the future。

Judging from the current situation,The field of autonomous driving is still in its initial development stage,Just a business to look at plum blossoms to quench thirst,Still far away from commercialization。Can 188bet app Chuxing catch up with Google in this field、Leave aside giants such as Baidu,If you want to make a breakthrough in these businesses,Investors must also be mentally prepared to spend tens of billions of dollars in investment。But,Will there be new investors willing to pay for 188bet app’s unattainable dream in the future,Do old investors still have the patience to maintain this fragile valuation bubble?Even though investors are betting on the field of autonomous travel,How much commercial value is there?

Entering driverless cars,Enter the field of car manufacturing.......188bet app Chuxing seems to have many choices,But there seems to be no real way out。

Conclusion

Before the latest round of financing,188bet app management’s shares have been diluted to 8.4%,Employee shareholding 10%,Tencent and Alibaba each hold 11.4% and 9.5%,The remaining shareholders’ shareholding ratio has not reached 5%。After this round of financing,188bet app management shares will be diluted again,Probably only 7.48%。

188bet app is no longer Cheng Wei’s 188bet app,It is 188bet app that is jointly maintained by various capitals。In the 100 billion investment in 188bet app,All kinds of capital have invested heavily,188bet app can only succeed,No failure allowed。Once 188bet app’s valuation falls,Unable to complete listing,It will be a fatal blow to these investors。

So,Investors carefully maintain 188bet app’s sky-high valuation,Cheng Wei is not the one running around raising money for 188bet app,It’s 188bet app’s investors。188bet app financing is like a game of drumming and passing flowers,In order to ensure cash flow support,Under the careful packaging and promotion of several investors,The valuation of 188bet app before it was listed was already as high as 50 billion US dollars,These investors were before 188bet app’s valuation bubble,We must try our best to find the next successor。

But high valuations often bring huge constraints to company founders,Because they have to spend a lot of energy to maintain the valuation bubble from being burst,And I have to do something only for investors、But a business option with no real value。

Displayed in 188bet app’s financing materials,188bet app Chuxing is expected to launch in the United States in 2018,This is the last life-saving straw for 188bet app investors,They need to try their best,Help 188bet app go public,Only 188bet app is listed,Only then can they hand over this hot potato to secondary market investors,Achieve safe exit。The existing business can no longer support the valuation,Investors need 188bet app to tell a new story of transformation,188bet app needs to develop into a technology-driven company,Only in this way can further financing be possible,Preparing for the final step of listing。

Faced with such a dilemma,Where will 188bet app go in the future?Not endless mergers and acquisitions,Not endlessly asking investors for money,188bet app’s top priority,It is to explore what is truly valuable、Business model innovation that can achieve positive cash flow。

We don’t want to deny 188bet app’s future prematurely,But the author wants to remind 188bet app’s management team to stay awake, billion is just a capital bubble,Instead of a reflection of true performance, Once the capital game of beating drums and passing flowers is terminated,It may cause 188bet app to collapse instantly。This is not alarmist,It’s not what we want to see either。

What Cheng Wei will do next,Just stop being a puppet of capital,Throw aside the pressure caused by high corporate valuations,Exploring real breakthrough innovations in business models,Make 188bet app land safely,Not relying on what the industry jokingly calls 188bet app’s core competitiveness—“Liu Qing’s financing capabilities”。

No destruction, no establishment,Innovative business model,Breaking the industry bottleneck in the field of Internet travel,This is the only way for 188bet app to save itself。But this first requires Cheng Wei to break the capital shackles investors have placed on 188bet app。

*Source of 188bet app article: Lushi Business Review,Author:Liu Xuehui, Liu Yanling,Original title: "[Depth] Is 188bet app a capital game of drumming and passing flowers?


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