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Author of this article: Zhihui 2018-05-03

The upgrading and decreasing of consumption are more related to the general background of economic growth。China will become the country with the largest middle class in the world。Consumption upgrades are everywhere，This is also the big dividend released by the rapid economic growth in the past 30 years。If overall consumption is really reduced in the future，It must be the rapid decline in economic growth，There is even a phenomenon of no growth。

During the May Day holiday，In addition to sharing photos of travel，Just forwarding an article about consumption downgrade，It shows from several points that young people have downgraded their consumption。Why the consumption has not been upgraded yet，The young man has been demoted？We discovered through our own observations，Consumption upgrading is still a major trend，Consumption downgrade requires a special background，The signs in that article have actually explained it，Consumption upgrading trend among young people。

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In the past 30 years, the nominal GDP growth rate of China’s economy has exceeded that of any other country in the world，And it is achieved on the basis of the world’s most populous country，It is one of the biggest miracles of the global economy in the past 100 years，Also brought huge dividends to the middle class。According to McKinsey report，The annual income of China’s middle class is 1.15--4.$30,000 crowd (corresponding to 7.Annual salary of RMB 50,000-280,000)。The number of this group of people increased from 5 million in 2000，Developed to today’s 2.2.5 billion people。Expected to increase to 2 by 2020.7.5 billion people，This population will exceed the total population of Europe。This also makes the study of China’s middle class of great significance。And，The miracle of China is that almost all wealth has been accumulated in the past 30 years。Since 1978，700 million Chinese people have been lifted out of the poverty line。Past 30 years，Almost everyone’s life is better than that of their parents。It can be said，Reform, opening up and globalization have driven China’s economic leap in the past thirty years，It also created a large number of middle class。

Although China’s population is aging，But the middle class as a whole is still relatively young。Under 35 years old，Mostly college educated，80% own real estate，Only one child，And live in a big city。

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Picture solutionExplanation: The proportion of the middle class in the urban population from 2015 to 2020

2. Social characteristics 188bet sports betting app download after the rise of the middle class: freedom and independence

Because the education is getting better and better，Especially the acceptance of Western ideas，And superimposed on other social reasons: higher education，Self-identity，Urban migration。China’s middle class increasingly pursues freedom and independence。The social characteristic behind it is that the age of marriage is getting later and later，Even the divorce rate has increased significantly。In the past, people used to use the term leftover men and leftover women to describe these single middle-class people，But the fact is，With the improvement of education level，It is very normal for the entire population to delay marriage。And，The high housing price has become the biggest stumbling block for young people to get married.。More and more people invest time and money in themselves，We are not forced to marry for the sake of family and inheritance in the past。

There are also many couples who live apart due to career and work，Driving force for rising divorce rate。In fact，The real divorce rate in China is higher。All of this，All point to a more free and independent personality，And lifestyle。

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Picture solutionExplanation: From left to right they are，Multiple generations living together，Average age at marriage，And divorce rate

3.Better quality of life and environment

I posted a picture before，To the effect that China’s Engel coefficient has declined sharply since 1985。Use my buddy’s words，That is, the "proportion of people who have been hungry" is declining rapidly。First we got off the poverty line，Next, we will gradually enter a well-off society，Gradually enter a middle-class life。This has resulted in substantial improvements in the quality and quality of life over the past 30 years。I still had the habit of saving when I was a child，Still feeling like not having enough to eat。Now the post-90s generation，After 00, I grew up with a golden key in my mouth，The quality of life has been greatly improved。We also see it in the picture below，From education，Pork consumption has increased rapidly。This also creates a "generation gap"，Creating young people to have a stronger sense of consumption。

These people have never felt insecure since childhood，Relatively similar to this generation in the United States。They don’t like saving money，Don’t pay for value for money，But for service，Personalization，Even paying for niche products。This will also have a profound impact on the future of the consumer goods market。First，Brand concentration will definitely increase。Secondly，Nicheization of products is also a direction。Last，The demand for service products is increasing，In other words, style is becoming more and more important。

Picture explanation: The four pictures correspond to the average life span，Mobile phone ownership 188bet app rate，Proportion of higher education and pork consumption。Indicating the overall improvement in the quality of life of Chinese people。

4. Misunderstandings about lower consumption: MediumChina’s per capita income is still not high

So why do people think there is a consumption downgrade，Why is a complex and low-consumption Internet application like Pinduoduo able to generate such huge revenue？Before answering this question，We need to understand the nature of the Internet。In fact, the biggest feature of the Internet is its coverage of long-tail users，The number of users must be the core indicator of most Internet applications。Pinduoduo can rise，In fact, it also represents the overall consumption trend of Chinese people。

The most important reason behind it is，Chinese people as a whole are not as rich as everyone thinks！Previously in our analysis of Pinduoduo，Divide Chinese income groups into five major groups: High-income per capita disposable income is 64,934 yuan，Upper middle income disposable income is 34547 yuan，The middle income is 22,495 yuan，The disposable income of the lower middle class is 13843 yuan，low-income disposable income is 5958 yuan。In other words，Highest income group，A month’s salary is only over 5,000。In 2017, the per capita disposable income of residents nationwide was only 25,974 yuan。

Let’s take a look at the per capita salary in China’s big cities。The bottleneck salary in Shanghai in 2017 is 7132 yuan a month，The average annual income is 85684 yuan。In other words，8,000 yuan a month in Shanghai，Has exceeded the income of half of Shanghai residents。Beijing and Shenzhen are lower，The average annual income of Beijing’s urban population is 57,230 yuan，The average annual income of Shenzhen’s urban population is 52,938 yuan。So not everyone in Beijing earns income from Internet companies，Shenzhen can’t compete with Tencent。5000 income per month，It also exceeds the average population in Beijing and Shenzhen

5. Consumption downgrade requires a large macro background

Many people like to compare China today with Japan，Due to the aging population，The solidification of society，Japan has obvious social characteristics of low desire。Although there is no family planning policy，But young people don’t want to have children at all，I don’t even want to get married and fall in love。In Japan we can see a large number of older people working，Their children stayed at home，Being an otaku and an otaku。There is an investigation report，Among Japanese young men and women aged 18 to 34，36% and 39% respectively are "child-like"。A large number of men under 40 do not have girlfriends。

The economy has entered a stage of low-speed development，There is a huge division in society。Old people of the previous generation who enjoyed the bubble economy，Basically have no worries about food and clothing，There is also a good pension from 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino the company to cover expenses in the second half of life。But the new generation of young people，There are fewer and fewer opportunities to discover，No matter how hard you try, you will never get ahead。There are a large number of part-time workers in Japan，Salary is settled by hour。Many convenience store employees are this group of people。They have no desire to struggle at all，No desire to fall in love。Otakus can only read comics at home，Playing games。There was once a classic comic "Gambling Apocalypse"，Actually, I am telling the story of this social background。There are even a large number of "disappeared people" in Japan，Many people can stay at home for several years without contacting the society。Their life is to get up every day、Brush your teeth and wash your face、Then play games。

The overall background of reduced consumption，It is the macro economy that is no longer growing。Japan today has experienced nearly 20 years of deflation，The economy is not growing，Young people see no hope。Everyone sees that there are fewer and fewer job opportunities，Never lose your job，Unemployment means no job，No job means no life。A large number of Japanese young people are "daily wage earners"。One day’s work，One day of food，The so-called hand stops and mouth stops

This is not the case in China，Young people have great vitality，The rapid economic growth in the past gave everyone hope of changing their destiny。Although the general direction of economic growth in the future must be downward，But it will take a long time to achieve no economic growth。What everyone is worried about in China is not unemployment，But there are too many choices，Employment is too casual。So compare today’s young people in China and Japan，is completely incorrect。

6. Consumption upgrades are everywhere

If we observe the phenomena around us，Discover consumption upgrades everywhere。The market share of brand owners has increased rapidly in the past few years，Whether it is food, clothing, housing or transportation，Everyone is consuming more and more branded products。Young people today are still eating snacks，But not rice noodles or fried dough sticks on the roadside，It’s a chain store with a brand name。It’s not just sitting on the side of the road while eating skewers，But sit in a clean and hygienic house，Well-decorated store。

In Shanghai，More and more old convenience stores are beginning to disappear，Replaced by a new convenience store with better services and products。For example, the whole family，7-11，Rosen et al。Go to the Hema near home on weekends，There is always a queue for the freshly cooked seafood inside。Many aunts have also given up on the vegetable market in front of their homes，Come to Hema for better service and experience，Eating crab、The total price of prawns is not cheap either。

Let’s look at milk tea again，The past tea storm 188bet online sports betting of a few yuan a cup has long been eliminated。Even Coco for around 10 yuan，Happy Lemon is also rarely liked，A cup of Hey Tea costs more than 20 yuan，There are always people queuing up at LeLe Tea。Recently Lele Tea has created a new Dirty Tea，At Xintiandi store，You have to queue for hours for a cup of tea。No one would spend more than 20 yuan to buy a cup of milk tea before。

Some people say that watching movies is a consumption downgrade，In fact it’s not the case。Today, the proportion of people watching movies in China’s third, fourth and fifth tier cities has increased significantly，After solving the problem of food and clothing，More and more people are beginning to consume spiritually。This is also in line with Maslow’s consumption pyramid model。These people used to go to small screening rooms to watch movies，Now they all go to regular big movie theaters。In the past, many people still thought about buying pirated movies，Everyone is willing to serve better today，Pay for experience and quality。

7. Changes in consumption trends brought about by changes in economic structure

With the overall improvement of the income structure，It will inevitably bring about changes in consumption trends。People rising above the poverty line will increase their purchases of optional consumer goods，People whose income has entered the middle and high levels，Will increase consumption of brands and services。From the data，Some changes have occurred。For example, we Chinese people are in food，The proportion of beverage and tobacco consumption dropped from 37% in 2005 to 30% in 2015。The other side is the proportion of housing-related consumption，10% from 2005，Significantly increased to 22% in 2015。This also reflects the great wave of urbanization。More and more Chinese people own their own homes，After the per capita housing area continues to increase，Investment at home has also increased accordingly。

In the picture below we can see what types of commodities had the fastest average annual growth rate from 2010 to 2015。The number one ranking is communication equipment，Basically a mobile phone。With the arrival of the big wave of mobile Internet，Smartphones maintain an average annual growth rate of about 35%。The second-ranked home decoration industry，Average annual growth rate 30%，After that comes the furniture industry。At the same time，We see that Internet media has replaced traditional media，The slowest growth rate in the past five years is traditional books，Magazine Sales。

For the future，Let’s compare the consumption structures of China and South Korea。After all, the consumption habits of Asians will be more similar。We found that South Korea’s food and tobacco consumption accounted for only 15% in 2015，China is 30%，There is room for decline in the future。At the same time，Our consumption proportion in the housing-related industry chain is 22%，188bet sports betting app download Already higher than South Korea’s 19%，It also indicates that China has reached a very high proportion in terms of consumption ratio。Opposite，South Korea’s investment in education is 14%，This proportion exceeds China’s 11%。Another consumer with a higher proportion in South Korea is medical care。Of course we saw，The highest proportion is "Others"。South Korea accounts for 22%，China only 3%。Indicates that the service industry has the greatest room for improvement in the future。

Another structural opportunity comes from financial services。With the growth of wealth，The demand for financial services will also increase significantly。When people have no money, they can only hold cash。When you have money, you will start depositing it in the bank，I will buy some stocks when I have more money，Fund products。Of course the richest people need wealth management services。Based on 2012 data，China’s per capita financial assets are RMB 120,000，76% of which is in the form of deposits。We see in the picture below，As financial assets are held higher，The different types of assets held will also be higher。

8.Summary: both data and perception，Consumption has not been downgraded

We start with detailed and complete data explanation，Discovered that consumption downgrade did not occur。Indeed，More and more expensive rents will squeeze out some people’s spending power，However, the increase in housing prices has also stimulated the consumption desire of other people。The upgrading and decreasing of consumption are more related to the general background of economic growth。China will become the country with the largest middle class in the world。Consumption upgrades are everywhere，This is also the big dividend released by the rapid economic growth in the past 30 years。If overall consumption is really reduced in the future，It must be the rapid decline in economic growth，There is even a phenomenon of no growth。So we can simply see a few phenomena，Even compare China and Japan today，They are all not objective。

We also try our best from the perspective of data and analysis，Objectively state the facts，Provide more information that is helpful to everyone。

*Source of this article: WeChat public platform “Dianshi Investment” (ID: deepinsightapp)，Original title: "Is China’s consumption upgrading or downgrading?》

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