2018 is a 188bet game in which big entertainment has declined rapidly.Entrepreneurs’ perception of trends stems from financing difficulties，The public’s understanding 188bet game industry began with the Fan Bingbing incident。

The most stringent “new asset management regulations” in history have tightened banks’ water valves，The depressed stock price caused the primary market water to dry up，Difficult to raise funds、Rumors about LP divestment happen 188bet game time to time。The listing channel for film and television entertainment companies is temporarily closed、Game version number restrictions，Let the capital retreat 188bet game the great entertainment wasteland。

Behind this，It’s a large number of movies、anime、self-media、MCN company’s business is shrinking、Financing blocked。According to Jingxing Entertainment Industry Analysis，As of October 2018，288 companies 188bet game entertainment industry have obtained 393.6.1 billion yuan financing，More than 400 fewer than last year。Dozens of interviewees expressed to 36Kr，The situation will be worse 188bet game first half of next year，The adjustment period may last 2-3 years。

But from historical experience，The cultural and entertainment 188bet game has “anti-economic cycle attributes”。

During the Great Depression 188bet game United States in 1929，Hollywood、The film and television entertainment industry represented by Disney is growing rapidly despite the trend；1997 Southeast Asian Financial Crisis，日、Han has successively proposed the strategy of "building a country through culture"，The ultimate Japanese comic、Korean dramas take the world by storm and exports increase by 300%，Export volume surges by US million；China’s movie box office set a record during the 2008 financial crisis、Online game publishing industry revenue increased by 76% compared with the previous year.6%。

Therefore, the "Great 188bet game Winter" we have experienced cannot simply be equated to the "Capital Winter"，And consider the economic bubble，And the influence of policy control factors。

This is not a sudden regulation。This round of regulation，Based on the fact that there are problems 188bet game industry that are difficult to digest in a short time。The 188bet game generally believes that，After a new round of structural optimization，The entertainment 188bet game will usher in a more healthy development。Although the overall situation is cold，But the head projects basically form their own rules and regulations，Has the ability to “anti-freeze”。And idol、Social、Offline entertainment scene、Spiritual consumption upgrade and IP+ have become the new pursuit goals 188bet game capital market。

The article 188bet game mainly discuss the following points:

Film and television enter a period of adjustment，Platform、CP、What are the 188bet game opportunities after the capital reshuffle？

"Idol Producer"、What changes has the popularity of "Produce 101" brought to the idol 188bet game？

Dividend fades，self-media、MCN Matthew Effect Intensifies，How to survive the winter for head projects？

The social sector is financing against the trend, where 188bet game it go from here?

Offline scene、IP+ becomes 188bet game favorite，Forcing the virtual into the real、The trend of industrial integration is obvious。

1. Dramatic changes 188bet game film and television industry, major reshuffle of platforms, CP, and capital

Squeeze the foam, metabolism.

Film and television media are the hardest hit areas 188bet game。From burning oil to freezing，Just half a year，The film and television entertainment industry bubble that has been building up for several years quickly burst。

The stock price of film and television media 188bet game secondary market has plummeted seriously.According to Wind data，As of December 25th，The stock price 188bet game media industry fell by 37% in 2018.64%，Sector PE fell to the lowest value in ten years except the 2008 financial crisis，Only 31 times。The market value of Huayi Brothers has dropped by 14 billion yuan compared with the beginning 188bet game year。iQIYI, which is listed on the US stock market, is not immune，From June 44.The peak of US fell all the way below the issue price。

The transmission 188bet game primary market is the withdrawal of capital、The number of startups dropped sharply。According to "Caixin" citing people familiar with the matter，Investment 188bet game film and television industry dropped by 70% year-on-year in 2018。Wang Ran, founder of Yikai Capital, speaks bluntly，188bet game next five years, more than 95% of players will be extremely marginalized or even disappear。

As the capital fever subsides、Vote rebates and tax rectification，An era has passed，A 188bet game era has begun。Understand the audience、Directors and actors who understand the 188bet game，Bi Shi Capital、A film team that understands traffic is more likely to get preferential treatment from the market。

Picture 188bet game poisonous conspiracy

Platform, CP and 188bet game reshuffle.

Founder of Lemon Pictures&President Su Xiao publicly proposed，Everyone has been betting on hot money 188bet game past few years。“Headline web dramas account for more than 75% of views，The hit movie "Wolf Warrior" accounted for 1/10 of the annual box office。”The current adjustment is the “bloodbath casino” brought about by the explosive thinking。And thinking adjustment，will bring platform、The reshuffle of CP (content producer) and capital。

The obvious trend is，The platform is not satisfied with playing the role of channel，Gradually moving from the distribution side to the upstream 188bet game industry。

Overseas，Netflix is ​​the world’s largest video streaming service provider，Started laying out self-made content a few years ago，So the world-class hit "House of Cards" was born。In 2018, Netflix’s budget for video content production was US-13 billion，According to Sensor Tower，Netflix is ​​also the APP with the highest net revenue 188bet game APP Store in 2018 (7.USD 900 million)，Exceeds Tencent Video and Youku combined。

188bet game country,Aiyouteng、Bilibili and others have 188bet game begun to be deeply involved in content production、Production link，Enhance the ability to obtain high-quality content，From data、Looking for criteria to judge the quality of content besides ratings，To ensure that the platform has stable growth of users and DAU。Among them, “Doraemon” under Bilibili started making related attempts as soon as 188bet game was established，Officially announced more than 20 new domestic animation film lists。

For CP, keeping track of potential 188bet game is more important than anything else.『Golden 7 Minutes、3 Episodes Before Life and Death" is not only a curse placed on content production by the platform based on data and algorithms，It is also the content requirement 188bet game new generation of Internet users。

For a hit drama like "The Story of Yanxi Palace" with over 20 billion views，The content is strong。How to lock in top content companies first，has become a required course on the platform。The market is not so friendly to non-leading production companies，The platform is still strong 188bet game dialogue，CP can only be forced to accept the rating、Low-priced pay-per-click and low gross profit status。According to industry insiders，Under the 28 principle，Only 10% of the top 20% of companies are profitable，The other 10% can only be tied。

For capital，We must 188bet game transition from pure financial investment to industrial investment。

Beginning 188bet game year，Hongtai raised and prepared entertainment industry fund。“The road to pure financial investment will become narrower and narrower，Industrial investment is the future。Funds are not a scarce resource，Industries involved in all aspects of enterprise development、Talent、Government、International and cross-border resources are the key to future investment。" Jincheng, partner of "Hongtai Entertainment Industry Fund" said。

Huang Huang, partner of “Three Thousand Capital” also told 36Kr，“Focus can lead to a deeper understanding and layout of the industry，As a focus fund，It is also easier to invest in good projects 188bet game industry。”They have recently invested in “Dream Animation” and “Ruosen Digital”，The two rank 188bet game first echelon of the animation track。

Policy and realization are 188bet game sharp swords hanging over our heads.

188bet game, we must have bottom-line thinking and understand policies and regulations.

Under the influence of policy，The main actors of "The Legend of Ba Qing" are trapped 188bet game whirlpool of public opinion，Difficulty going online may lead to bad debts of 700 million yuan；The broadcast of "The Legend of Hao Lan" has been postponed due to the influence of ancient restrictions。More than movies，Miaopai during the rectification of short video platform、Meipai etc. were removed from the shelves，Also caused new users to drop off a cliff and flow to competing products。

Jincheng mentioned that “government supervision has its own language system，188bet game is a commercial entity、The venture capital circle has two language systems。If you encounter delisting、Banned，We must first alert ourselves。”

Part 2，Mindset adjustment，188bet game worship traffic and IP ，To attach importance to value flow and realization。

Financing difficulties 188bet game inevitably lead to，For a long time from now on, "realization" 188bet game be a sword hanging over the heads of entertainment companies。

True IP and huge commercial value，188bet game can never be born overnight。The transformation from hot-selling thinking to operational thinking means，Content production、Continuous iteration on distribution methods，Obtain revenue beyond the box office through 188bet game collaboration.

China film and television industry，The box office accounts for 90% of the total movie revenue，188bet game United States this number is around 40%，It means that the film industry still has a lot of room for change in its business model。

Take Zhang Yimou's "Shadow" as an example， “The “Shadow” project was launched in 2014，The producers have begun to jointly plan the overall development of IP and brand co-operation plan。” Chen Su, senior vice president of “Lechuang Entertainment” told 36Kr。There will be more and more cases of 188bet game kind of film and television content + industry integration。

Thirdly, there are hopes for diversified online 188bet game and genre films.

The number of Hengdian startups dropped sharply to less than 1/5 of the original number，The startup projects are mainly based on Internet University，Qiewang’s large branch account reached a new high 188bet game。The online movies "Soul Ferry: Huangquan" and "Orochi" produced by Taomeng.com both have more than 4 points..50 million。

And try new genre films，Make differentiated content，It is an important reason why Net University can obtain high amount of accounts。Founder of Taomeng.com&CEO Yin Chao thinks，The success of "Orochi" is largely due to the lack of "animal disaster movies" 188bet game market。

Diversified viewing needs and separation of user circles，188bet game let film and television companies actively try art films、Vertical short drama、Seasonal series、New online content forms such as short variety shows。

August 188bet game，Hollywood’s streaming service platform NewTV acquires investment from Alibaba、Disney、USD 1 billion in Pre-A round financing from giants such as Goldman Sachs。Not many companies are born as unicorns，NewTV is favored，To a large extent, it is due to its targeting of the next generation of online student content，base mobile terminal、A short video of about 5 minutes、Gathered the world’s top film and television teams，Shorter and faster content、Higher energy density。

Domestic film and television innovation is also non-stop。Recently, iQiyi launched the "Vertical Screen Control Theater"，Vertical screen online dramas such as "Life Has Attacked Me" are online，Nearly 20 high-quality content covering dramas and comics 188bet game be launched in 2019。Tencent and Youku also responded。

Alibaba Taopiao Piao will invest 300 million yuan in support 188bet game next three years、Promote high-quality art films。Although "The Last Night on Earth" has a poor reputation，But it is rare 188bet game history of Chinese art films that the box office exceeds 200 million yuan，This at least proves that audiences are willing to pay for art films。

iQiyi and Youku are still actively trying to link up 188bet game theaters.Videos after offline 188bet game future，Longer tail revenue will be obtained through online on-demand or split accounts；Videos with good online data can also be screened offline、View。

Overseas release、International market linkage is also one of the future directions。According to Google data，"Story of Yanxi Palace" beats HBO、Marvel works，Became the most searched TV series globally in 2018。188bet game’s animated films such as "Wind Curse" and "Youth"，Also known as repayment through overseas distribution and copyright income。

二、The idol 188bet game will usher in a period of rapid development，Emerging brokerage companies will form the Matthew Effect within 2-3 years

Shocking changes 188bet game film and television industry，But there is also good news 188bet game entertainment industry。At the beginning of the year, "Idol Producer" and "Produce 101" received nearly 5 billion views，Set off a wave of star-making for all people。"Nine percent" and "Rocket Girls 101" who debuted in these two programs have become the backbone of the new generation of idols。

According to the 2018 Fan White Paper released by Weibo，As of October 31st，Nine percent members’ monthly active fans on Weibo account for one-tenth 188bet game total active fans of all celebrities，The cumulative sales 188bet game first album To The Nines exceeded 10 million。Nine percent group endorsements 8，The social marketing effect of brand cooperation is 14 times that of all other celebrities combined。Based on data provided to 36Kr by Aiman ​​Data，6 188bet game top 20 most popular Weibo posts in 2018 are from “Nine percent” and “Rocket Girls 101”，Cai Xukun ranked first with a large lead。

We mentioned it at the beginning 188bet game article，The cultural and entertainment industry has “anti-economic cycle attributes”。Also，The "China Idol Industry Iteration Research Report" released by Ye En pointed out，Based on international experience，When GDP per capita reaches US,000，The cultural industry will enter a period of rapid development，As a branch of cultural content, the idol industry will also usher in rapid development。Data display in 2015，The per capita GDP of my country’s first-tier cities and some second-tier cities has reached the standards of moderately developed countries。By around 2020，The country’s per capita GDP is expected to reach US,000。188bet game is the window period for the development of my country’s idol industry。

The decline of Japan’s cultivation model, and the wave of nationwide pickup is surging

First，First clarify a concept。The idols we are talking about here are，Debuted after systematic training、An artist who mainly sings and dances。Before Oulian and 101 appeared，China became popular first by imitating Japan’s cultivation and voting model，Such as TFboys and SNH48。But since the broadcast of Idol Producer in 2018，Japan’s cultivation model is obviously in decline，This can be seen from 188bet game’s financing trends。

Idol agency companies that disclosed financing trends 188bet game (data source: IT Orange，36氪 finishing)

The disadvantages of SNH48 mode are more obvious。Cultivation 188bet game is too long、The cost of offline theater performances is high、The number of otaku fans in China who are “able to fight” is limited，These are all factors that limit SNH48’s market expansion。SNH48 debuted in January 2013，As of now，More than 300 active members，But the only one who is really well known to us is Ju Jingyi、Li Yitong、Huang Tingting and a few others。

But SNH48’s ability to attract money is still strong。The number of votes cast 188bet game SNH48 annual final election in May this year exceeded 2.97 million，35 yuan per vote，Siba Media’s revenue exceeds 100 million in one vote。There is still a slight increase compared to last year’s total votes of 2.77 million，But the growth rate has slowed down significantly。

SNH48 total votes over the years (188bet game source: GF Securities、SNH48 official website、36氪 finishing)

Because only a few head members can leave the circle，Be able to obtain certain endorsements、Participate in business activities for B-side business realization，So C-end revenue has always been the focus of SNH48，Although the C end is relatively stable, an obvious ceiling can be seen，So Siba Media chose to focus on film and television，The TV series that have been aired include "The Story 188bet game Destiny"、"The Legend of Yun Xi"、"Xuanyuan Sword: Clouds of Han" etc.。

Chenhai Capital partner Chen Yuetian, who participated 188bet game investment of Siba Media and Mairui Entertainment, told 36Kr，It will take at least 4 years for artists launched by cultivation companies to have a certain reputation 188bet game market，So they must act steadily，Through thick and thin experience。

New regulations have also been introduced 188bet game，Artists under the age of 18 are not allowed to participate in talent shows，In other words, it is difficult for them to take advantage of the power of the platform。Compare，Being able to rely on platform traffic to take off is obviously a faster path，But what kind of company can fly？

If we pull out the participating companies of "Idol Producer" and "Produce 101"，You will find that many of them are traditional film and television companies and record companies。36Kr learned about Chen Gang, chief director of idol trainees and vice president of Caviar Culture，The number of trainees and performing arts companies who have signed up to participate in "Youth with You", which has just started recording, has increased several times compared to the same type of program last year，But there are not many companies that actually have a complete trainee system。(Note: The last 100 people who participated 188bet game recording belong to a total of 42 companies)

Different 188bet game traditional artist management companies that focus on business capabilities，Emerging idol agency companies need a professional training system，You must have the ability to turn blank paper into an idol。Wang Cong, founder of Mai Rui Entertainment said，The ideal training time for trainees is 2 years，The market does not give them so much time now，But it 188bet game take at least 10 months，Otherwise it 188bet game definitely be a semi-finished product that cannot be sold。

iQiyi this year、Youku、Tencent's three major platforms launched "Youth with You" respectively、"188bet game Name of the Group"、"Produce 101" male version，In other words, 300 fresh boys will appear in front of the audience this year。And our common question is，Does China really have so 188bet game ready trainees？

The answer is no.

According to 36Kr.com，There will still be many Internet celebrity contestants in this year’s program，Only received training for a month or two and then participated 188bet game show。Xu Lufei, founder of AIF 188bet game, thinks，On the trainee reserve，The biggest problem in China is that the trainees have poor foundation。

188bet game is already a profession in Korea，Many people learn to sing and dance since childhood，Before entering the trainee company，Already have a certain foundation，The situation in China is completely different。ButThe demand for the platform is too strong now，For the company，188bet game equivalent to the platform subsidizing their cost of acquiring fans，So everyone transformed into singing and dancing idols。

Platform traffic boost is crucial

Although the overall environment is favorable for the development 188bet game idol industry，But whether the platform is too aggressive and leads to harmful results？

36氪think，Although radical，But good。The traffic 188bet game platform can bring public attention，With attention, there will be a market，Only when there is a market and dividends will capital enter the game。Several companies that train trainees have expressed their opinions to 36Kr，They all experienced cash flow interruptions last 188bet game、The dilemma of insufficient financing。If there is no occasional training，They probably won’t survive。

188bet game is a heavy investment industry that requires capital support,And these two years will be a process of great waves and waves，188bet game end, good money will drive out bad money。Investor Chen Yuetian thinks，The current idol 188bet game can be compared to the comic 188bet game four or five years ago，If it weren’t for the massive investment of capital at that time，There would be no outstanding comic companies left now。

Director Chen Gang said，"Idol Producer" is not a regular variety show，It’s an idol development program。Every trainee will receive professional training 188bet game show。The platform plays a role not only as a program producer，Also a training method，Let everyone compete in a high-pressure environment，It is a promotion for all trainees。

188bet game，Chen Gang repeatedly emphasized to us，The six words "trainee values"，In addition to the new rule mentioned above that under 18 years old are not allowed to participate in idol selection，You can feel that the policy 188bet game has strong binding force on the platform。

36氪 believes that idol selection is the same as other variety shows，The audience 188bet game eventually develop aesthetic fatigue，It is difficult for everyone to maintain high popularity for a long time。But except for idol selection，What we can see is that other "supporting facilities" are also constantly being improved，For example, the two singing programs launched 188bet game - iQiyi's "Chinese Music Billboard" and Tencent Video's "Your Music Chart"。

Also，"Wonderful Eating Light"、"The Flower Road of Youth"、New variety shows such as "Little Sister's Flower Shop" also provide these new idols with more opportunities to express themselves、Opportunity to continue the popularity。According to 36Kr.com，The copyrights of some Korean idol variety shows have also been bought by domestic companies，After 2019 we can see the emergence of more supporting idol variety shows，Promote the idol 188bet game to move forward。

188bet game still difficult for a company to independently promote groups, but it must first become a leader

According to entertainment 188bet game statistics,In 2018, there were as many as 20 188bet game groups independently launched by major companies (excluding Nine Percent and Rocket Girls)。But judging 188bet game the number of fans on the official blog，The number of fans of trainee debut groups who have appeared in two programs is obviously outstanding，And most other groups are relatively bleak。At present，No platform traffic boost，Idol agency independently launches idol team，The possibility of becoming popular is not high。

China’s current idol 188bet game is still in a very early stage，What are the requirements for a leading idol agency?？We believe that at least the following points are needed:

The ability to cover the entire 188bet game chain。From mining、Training、Content production to fan operation，Companies need to be able to control every aspect。The current idol agency’s trainee reserve generally does not exceed 10，Whether it is possible to ensure the continuous output of artists is a big problem，At the same time, we must also consider the conflict between new and old artists。Also，Compared to film and television stars，Idols are extremely dependent on fans，How to weigh fans and idols、Even relationship with economic companies，It is also a test for these new companies。

Rich overseas cooperation resources。Several companies that have received financing this year have close ties with overseas companies 188bet game United States, Japan, and South Korea。Mai Rui Entertainment has reached a strategic cooperation with the Japanese entertainment group "ACN"，Transport two of its members to Love Becks，And in future selection training、In-depth cooperation in music production。AIF Entertainment’s newly launched boy group GOLDEN AGE invited the famous Korean director Beomjin (formerly EXO) to shoot the new song MV.、MV created by popular Korean groups such as Blackpink)。Future One Entertainment is directly responsible for the Black Eyed Peas from the United States、John Stratton, who manages Fergie and other big-name artists，Co-founded with Zeng Yu, founder of the well-established domestic music company Flyer。

The ability to cope with turbulence and change。Emerging idol agencies generally have a shorter operating time，I have never experienced the problem of artists voluntarily leaving the turmoil，How to maintain the stability 188bet game artist system is what they need to pay attention to。

Investor Chen Yuetian thinks，This is a resource-intensive industry，It also accumulates positively over time。This wave of idol agencies that appear with the show has a window period of about two years，By the time of the third season of the show，This window period is closed，So companies that have already received financing have obvious first-mover advantages。36氪think，188bet game next 2-3 years，Emerging idol agency companies will produce an obvious Matthew effect。

final，According to 36Kr.com，South Korean SM company will launch a new Chinese boy group in January 188bet game under the name of Chinese company Label V，It may also have a certain impact on local Chinese companies。SM, which has been separated from the Chinese market for several years，There is also a high possibility of being acclimatized。

Overall，36Kr is optimistic about the long-term development of China’s idol industry，Idol agency companies need to seize the favorable period of the platform 188bet game past two years to quickly improve themselves，The last one is，Who can be the first to get off the platform and walk independently。

三、Dividend fades、Matthew effect intensifies，Forcing self-media、MCN Transformation

Counting from the launch of Weibo in 2009，China’s self-media has gone through 9 years，Many of them penetrate Weibo、WeChat、Short video era，Company still standing at the top 188bet game industry。Self-media matrix or MCN，It’s just that they are given different names due to different organizational forms at different life stages。

In 2018, the industry also suffered a comprehensive reshuffle after the outbreak，The strong are always strong、The drama 188bet game weak fading away has been staged。

According to incomplete statistics，There are more than 40,000 MCNs in China，Two years ago 188bet game number did not exceed 10,000。Intensified competition、The content is complete、Severe homogeneity、Single revenue model、Online traffic saturation, etc.，These are the key factors leading to 188bet game reshuffle。

The value of 188bet game traffic has dropped，Forcing the “self-media” business to be implemented。

Set the time back five or six years ago，We-media grows wildly。If you do good content, you will gain followers，Even if there is a need to quickly increase fans，“The price of WeChat Guangdiantong still stays at 0.5 yuan，188bet game the number jumped to 6-10 yuan，More than ten times。"The founder of a top 500 WeChat account revealed。

But the price of traffic is rising and the value of fans is plummeting.

“I want to sell my account this year，If a fan costs less than 2 yuan, there may not be a buyer to take it over。”The main influencing factor is the serious decline 188bet game open rate of official accounts，“8% open rate last year，Many numbers this year are only a few thousandths。”Traffic cannot be monetized，Naturally there is a price but no market。

The result 188bet game sharp contrast is that a large number of self-media companies have gone offline，Or combine it with other industries to realize it。No industry link capability、A small company that does not have the funds to support business implementation，It’s like sitting back and waiting for death。

RiRiChu started to move very early，After completing 100 million yuan in Series B financing in 2017, they went offline，Opened a total of 6 self-operated brand stores，Plan to open 100 stores nationwide in 2019。Expansion is based on stable business，Founder & CEO Norma told 36Kr，“The current store sales per square meter is between 4000-4500 yuan，The payback period 188bet game be controlled within 12-15 months。”

September，Yiyi opened 3 stores in Shanghai，And said it will go public after opening 100 stores；December，More than 50 million fans、Shidian Reading, which has good cash flow performance, also opened its first store in Xiamen，And said that 100 offline cultural life spaces will be opened 188bet game next five years。

Founder of Ten O’clock Reading & CEO Lin Shao revealed to 36Kr，Xu Husheng, the founder of Yitiao, once discussed with him whether to go offline，The conclusion is - the same amount of money is spent online，Acquired sticky users、There is not much value traffic。If used as a physical store，Brands 188bet game gain points and reach real users、Feed back online，Can also be filtered、Maintain core users。

"Short video" data is impressive、Difficult to realize，188bet game reshuffle is coming。

Short videos are good 188bet game、Traffic carrier，But the increment is limited and realization is difficult。

User saturation、Many competitors，The short video 188bet game will grow wildly 1.0 period，Enter full verticalization、Branding、2 who value traffic monetization.0 period。

Internet user saturation is a foregone conclusion，According to QuestMobile，China Mobile Internet MAU net increase 188bet game first nine months of 2018 0.3.4 billion，Reduced by more than half compared with the same period last year。Although the C-side is still growing, it has slowed down greatly，And the commercial value has not yet found a good export。

Li Yongan, co-founder of Dayu, mentioned 188bet game a phenomenon—— The commercial value 188bet game same 1 million fans，WeChat is larger than Weibo and is larger than Douyin。Under the algorithm recommendation mechanism,It is difficult to mass-produce popular videos，It’s harder to predict ad performance，Resulting 188bet game price of Douyin advertising being pushed down。There is an algorithm 188bet game industry，Single delivery budget divided by the number of fans，A fan is 188bet game worth a few cents.

Affected by the economic environment，The total advertising budget next year 188bet game be significantly reduced，The Matthew effect 188bet game inevitably intensify，If small and medium-sized MCNs based on Douyin and other short video APPs cannot find a monetization channel，Things 188bet game get worse。

188bet game，Short videos seize the living space of long and short videos，And the trend of integrating long and short videos is becoming more and more obvious。

According to Trustdata，Douyin’s MAU in November has surpassed iQiyi and reached 2.680,000。QuestMobile displays，The total usage time of video applications decreased 188bet game first three quarters of 2018，However, the total usage time of short video users increased by 144% year-on-year。Entertainment time is limited，It takes longer to open A，The time to open B will inevitably be shortened，Now more time is filled 188bet game short video APP。

But short videos have inherent limitations，Limited 188bet game carrying capacity，So Vlog took off。Launching long video function from Douyin，Platform betting vertical screen short drama、Let’s wait and see，The integration of long and short videos is unstoppable。

But these micro innovations，After all, it is the improvement and supplement 188bet game existing content form，Hard to become a platform-level opportunity。As the 188bet game production time increases、Enhanced energy density、Increased shooting difficulty and investment cost，The threshold for entrepreneurship has been raised again。

Traffic relies on Shuangweiyiji, and monetization relies on 188bet game platforms.

Borges said “time is always bifurcating，To countless futures”，The business model is the same。We found out during the interview，The head MCN or CP that can stably monetize have stepped into different survival modes，We temporarily define 188bet game as "winter secrets"。

The common point among the secrets is，Work hard beyond "Double Micro Shake"。

“Shell Video” CMO Xing Chuan mentioned a gameplay method to 36Kr: “Dual Platform Account”，In-depth binding around advertising business and e-commerce platform，That is, the same IP distributed operation "e-commerce account + external account"，The former does e-commerce monetization，The latter cultivates Taobao、Fans outside JD.com divert traffic 188bet game former。Xing Chuan revealed，They have settled in Suning、JD.com、E-commerce platforms such as Taobao，Get brand advertising with e-commerce platforms，Advertising business becomes easy to communicate，And stable and continuous。

(The traffic of social APP is directed to e-commerce APP for monetization，188bet game is also an important reason why Douyin and others are trying hard to monetize e-commerce，WeChat tries to use mini programs for e-commerce、There are similar motivations for linking offline。）

Office owned by Ono、Daigula K and 188bet game tens of millions of internet celebritiesThe secret of "Onion 188bet game" is self-operated e-commerce + MCN.

Nie Yangde, co-founder of Onion 188bet game, told 36Kr，Onion has always been operating its own brand e-commerce，188bet game, the self-operated store of a certain beauty account has achieved a revenue of about 200 million yuan。In view of the high gross profit margin of beauty products，188bet game account can bring tens of millions of profits to the company a year。“If a single account is profitable only by relying on advertising, the ceiling is very low，Getting 20-40 million ads a year is overwhelming。But if e-commerce does well，Estimated annual revenue of 2-1 billion。" Nie Yangde said。

But the process of breaking through content and deepening the e-commerce 188bet game is difficult.

How to make Internet celebrities famous，To create an industrial production line for mass production of Internet celebrities；How to make famous people famous for a long time，Must have strong marketing and packaging capabilities；And commercial realization，The test is the right brand、Supply chain capabilities。Nie Yangde revealed，Before running through the entire set of modes，The success rate of onion e-commerce is only 10%，188bet game it increased to 70%。

Li Yongan, co-founder of Dayu, told 36Kr,2.0 era，Dayu Congpan 188bet game short video，Moved to a diversified vertical matrix with IP as the core，Explore the greater potential of celebrity IP。

Dayu signed dozens of new celebrity IPs in 2018，Including beauty、Gourmet food、Maternal and infant categories，The accounts with more than 10 million followers all have distinctive personalities、188bet game Focus，For example, Taro loves to cook，Yan Jiu, a serious girl who focuses on lipstick reviews。Among them, "Yan Jiu" has achieved 5 crowns within four months of opening the store、The store has been followed by one million，More than 100,000 lipsticks sold during Double Eleven。

Differentiated "Yi Zen Little Monk"，It is a layout to try to extend the IP life cycle besides Internet celebrities。Based on content precipitation、IP vitality、Three-dimensional animation technology, etc.，Making long-form dramas or cinema movies 188bet game become an important direction for Dayu。

As for the incremental space of MCN 188bet game future,Serving the industry from to C to to B may be another broad road。Onion Video is working hard in 188bet game direction，Become a "content ecological service provider"，Bringing mature experience and team，Empower internet celebrities and other MCNs 。

188bet game long run，Such self-media、The ending of MCN company’s life amplification，It is nothing more than being acquired by a listed company or listing on its own。But neither path is clear at present。

In view of the fact that the value of online traffic has been re-evaluated in 2018，If large self-media groups miss 188bet game best acquisition period，Assets will continue to shrink。The previous "Quantum Cloud" merger and acquisition was terminated，There is a "distant view" of nearly 1.8 billion yuan in buying Saturday shares (002291，SZ)，Uncertain policy risks during the adjustment period，Let the future of self-media be uncertain。

四、Contrarian financing 188bet game social field，Traffic ceiling、The problem of lack of hematopoietic ability is difficult to solve

The dividends of self-media based on social platforms such as Weibo and WeChat have faded、Uncertain future，The future is also uncertain for a large number of new social products 188bet game。

According to 188bet game Orange data,91 investment and financing incidents 188bet game social field in 2018，Total financing 4.5 billion。Compared to 2017，Investment and financing events 188bet game social field decreased 29.5%，But the total financing increased by 68.2%。A total of 19 stranger 188bet game companies，Number of financing events 16，Total financing reaches 9.4.8 billion yuan。

In a 188bet game of capital winter，The social track can be said to be a contrarian financing。But what we can see is，Most financing occurs before Series A，The pursuit of capital 188bet game push social networking to the forefront in 2018，But it is likely that a lot of money 188bet game be trapped in 2019，The situation of "no one taking over" a large number of products。Social product traffic bottleneck、The problem of lack of hematopoietic ability has become a common problem。

Financing disclosure of major 188bet game community projects in 2018 (data source: business card、Whale Accurate，36氪 finishing)

Why socialize 188bet game?

Through 36 Krypton’s interviews with social projects 188bet game past year，Founders choose entrepreneurial social products this year，Basically due to the following reasons:

Spurred by the pain points of WeChat。Including increasingly complex WeChat relationship chains, which bring serious 188bet game pressure，WeChat processing efficiency is low，The number of posts in Moments is decreasing，Users need a more private place to post updates, etc. (Representative product: Bullet SMS、Echo moment、POP IM、Spot）

Generational change brings opportunities，Users of Generation Z need 188bet game community and dating products that are more in line with their aesthetics and needs (representative product: uki、Muli Planet、flow、soda、One can、immediately)

Tantan’s growth slows，Making friends 188bet game opposite sex is a necessity；Users need a more efficient way to make friends (representative product: Xiangkan、Love circle)

Changes and upgrades in technology and interaction can bring 188bet game growth points (representative product: Yinyu、Zepeto)

Startups are unable to shake WeChat’s status at 188bet game stage

Bullet SMS launches one-week financing 1.500 million yuan，It can be said to be the climax of 188bet game’s social craze，Even reached the number one spot on the iOS overall list in August，But it has fallen below the 200th place on the social list。Spot 36氪 once introduced in detail，It is an acquaintance social software based on LBS。The two founders of POP and Echo were both senior product directors of WeChat，Start a business from WeChat，They all completed financing at high valuations before they had any products。

A brief introduction，One of the main functions of POP is similar to WeChat 7.0 version of "Moment Video"，User posted a video that is retained for 24 hours，The other is the IM function。Echo was originally a place for users to create a circle of friends，Users can post updates in different friend circles。The highest rankings of both were when they were first launched，Currently outside the top 400。(just a few weeks ago，Echo has added a new function "Dimensional Space"，Recommend strangers’ updates to users based on AI algorithm，Let users actively "expand columns"，188bet game step directly crosses the scope of social acquaintances，188bet game revision has greatly improved Echo’s ranking)

Echo and POP IM ranking trends in APP Store (188bet game source: Qimai 188bet game)

We can basically draw a conclusion here: it is basically impossible for startups to challenge WeChat’s social relationship chain，The high transfer cost alone is enough to cut off the path of 188bet game type of social product。The pain points of WeChat exist，But 188bet game kind of social products only solve users’ itch。

188bet game products based on the needs of Generation Z, the ceiling is obvious

Generation Z generally refers to those born in 1995 and 2000。According to the "White Paper on the Consumption Power of Generation Z" released by QQ Advertising in December 188bet game，Currently China has the largest Z population 188bet game world，The number of people has reached 1.4.9 billion。The report also states，Generation Z is a typical “only generation”，I feel lonely，A generation eager to socialize，But because of heavy schoolwork，They are under great pressure to socialize (lack of time and opportunities for offline socializing)。Generation Z is at the age of self-exploration，They like to keep exploring and trying，Study 188bet game field you love，And establish a "personality" 188bet game field。

The "Post-00s Pan-Entertainment Consumption Research Report" released by Sequoia China Capital in August 188bet game pointed outThe demographic characteristics of Millennials include — strong 188bet game needs，Own multiple 188bet game software，Spend one hour a day on 188bet game software。At the same 188bet game，They have diverse interests and hobbies，And willing to invest energy，Even pay for interest。

Uki and Mile Planet are typical 188bet game products targeting Generation Z。In simple terms，Uki is a heterosexual matching software that uses virtual avatars and is not based on LBS，Muli Planet allows users to play by providing some interesting gamification interactions。Both founders told 36Kr，They believe that what Generation Z needs more now is spiritual companionship，Offline meetings are not strictly necessary，Online companionship is a necessity，But there are currently no products suitable for them on the market。

Soda and flow, which are highly sought after 188bet game VC circle this year, are emerging content communities targeting young people，The founders are all from Momo’s product team，The overall style is more refined “INS style”。Immediately transform into a community for young people from this year，Want to connect users with interests and commonalities。final，One jar represents a tree hole community，According to 36Kr.com，Most of the users of Yican are born in 1995。The characteristic of this type of product is decentralization，Enlarge emotional hobbies，Weaken personal homepage，Such a community without social pressure，What I want to do is allow users to talk and express themselves as much as they want。

Left flow, right Soda

188bet game type of products will basically face the following two common problems:

1）The ceiling is obvious。For 188bet game that favor opposite-sex matching，“Don’t look at the face、There is an obvious ceiling for 188bet game that are “not ready”，Here we compare Soul。Soul launched in 2015，The concept of "soul socialization" is conveyed to users with the sentence "Follow the soul to find you"。In January this year, Soul received investment from DST, which sparked widespread discussion 188bet game VC circle (DST had invested in Facebook、Twitter etc.)，The second half of the year after this financing，Soul is also basically firmly 188bet game top ten of the social list。

According to QM data，Soul’s daily active users in November 2018 were less than 2 million，Nearly 3 times worse than Tantan。According to 36Kr.com，Soul’s marketing expenses on Douyin alone are about 50 million a year。It is said that Soul was seeking the next round of financing with a valuation of US0 million (the amount of Tantan’s merger and acquisition was 7..5 billion，And DAU is around 5 million)。The new round of financing is said to be 188bet game close stage，But the valuation did not reach 700 million US dollars，It is speculated that the reason for the lower valuation may be that Soul’s DAU has obviously reached a bottleneck。

The same is true for community-based products，If you want to expand the number of users, you 188bet game definitely face the problem of conflict between new and old users，Specially for Soda、flow For a product like flow that prefers refined positioning，How to sink is the primary problem。

Soul daily activity trend in 2018 (188bet game source: Questmobile)

2) 188bet game difficult to realize cash.The monetization ability of 188bet game positioned as efficient dating has been confirmed by Tinder。Based on Sensor Tower data，Among the ten APPs with the highest net revenue 188bet game APP Store in 2018，Tinder with 4.USD 6.2 billion ranks third。As shown in Momo’s third quarter financial report，Tantan’s paying 188bet game reached US.6 million，0,000 net quarterly increase。

For these products that are more of a spiritual companionship，Once it is linked to the word "payment"，The tone has changed，Low user acceptance。The monetization of content communities can be seen from the products currently on the market that have been attempted to monetize，Advertising is the mainstream。I want advertisers to pay，DAU is a big indicator，188bet game brings us back to the low ceiling problem we just mentioned。

Gamified 188bet game products are likely to be a hit

Yinyu and Zepeto are both hot products that appeared at the end of this year，Everyone has reached the first place on the social list，First and second position 188bet game overall list。Yinyu recently received tens of millions of dollars in financing led by Sequoia Capital and Gaorong Capital，Post-money valuation exceeds US0 million，DAU exceeded 800,000 two weeks ago，Growing very rapidly。Yinyu’s technical threshold is not high，AI recognition based on musical phrase humming already has products like "Superstar" on the PC side。But Yinyu has created an interactive gameplay based on music，Built an effective ice-breaking scene，And the threshold is low、Fragmentation。

Zepeto is simply a virtual 3D image creation tool and 188bet game software。From 2D virtual to 3D virtual，Technological breakthroughs bring new experiences，Although Zepeto is not the first product to do “face pinching”，But using avatars to take photos with friends and other methods are the first of Zepeto。

To summarize these two products，They are all gamified social products，Compared to establishing a point-to-point connection，Or interaction based on the content itself，188bet game type of product allows users to “play together”。Then the common problem faced by this type of products is，Fun and interesting can stick to users 188bet game short term，But what should users do if they get tired of playing？The guild in World of Warcraft can make the relationship between unfamiliar players become closer，But for audio products，Simple interactive gameplay is difficult to establish a strong relationship。Next sound encounter、What Zepeto urgently needs to consider may be，How to prevent a product from being just a “hit”。

Where is the future of 188bet game products

As for what the future social products 188bet game look like,36氪 is currently unable to give an answer。But we think，Want to challenge WeChat’s 188bet game products，You may need to wait for the platform-level opportunities brought about by the next disruptive technological innovation。Also，188bet game social field of strangers，After Tantan was acquired by Momo in February this year，DAU still maintains a relatively stable growth，The current DAU has increased by more than 30% compared to the same period last year，Reached more than 7.5 million，Retention on the 30th day can be maintained near 20%，At present, Tantan still maintains his position as the boss(Momo’s overall main business is biased toward live broadcasting, which 188bet game not be discussed yet).

Want to challenge Tantan’s entrepreneurial projects or improve the efficiency of making friends，Or find a new way to play social games (technical breakthroughs, etc.)，Only some interactive adaptations 188bet game form of Tantan，We don’t think it’s worth much。And more spiritual products，We must consider our own ceiling and monetization issues。At present, the best way out for 188bet game projects may still be to be BAT、M&A by Momo and other giants，The independent hematopoietic ability of most products is not optimistic。

Tantan’s daily activity trend in 2018 (188bet game source: Questmobile)

5. Offline scenarios, “IP+” becomes the 188bet game favorite

Except the movies and TV shows mentioned above、Short 188bet game and other mainstream business forms，In 2018, there was a clear shift 188bet game focus of the capital market—avoiding virtual reality and focusing on realism。

Feng Po, vice president of "Huagai Culture Fund" told 36Kr，“Huagai Culture has always paid attention to the content industry，But we will also make some fine-tuning of the strategy，Currently focusing on cultural IP empowering traditional industries、Projects that can be combined across borders”。On 188bet game track，They have successively invested in music cross-border cultural tourism for the past 13 months、Immersive Entertainment Company Wanyu Gravity、Star projects such as claw machine brand Karacool。

In addition, there are also many capital feedbacks that "cannot invest"，The direct reason is slow growth、The same money invested 188bet game online business will generate more money。

Compared to the investment line (valuation has increased more than ten times a 188bet game、Dozens of times)，Offline investment returns are slow，A fivefold growth in two to three years would be considered very good。But there is also heavy traffic online、Difficult to realize、Valuation bubble and other issues。

Innovation in 188bet game consumption forms、IP+ level，The Forbidden City is very popular。

May 2018，Cooperation between the Forbidden City and Phoenix Art，Immersive interactive performance "Along the River During Qingming Festival 3".0》Exhibited offline (Forbidden City, Beijing)，Via 8K Ultra HD Array Wall、Scene restoration and AR、VR、Holographic projection and other technologies revitalize cultural relics，Received more than 1.41 million people during the exhibition period of more than 100 days。Technological innovation brings diversification of revenue methods，Permanently landed in other cultural and tourism scenic spots 188bet game form of IP output，The exhibition will also start a global tour next year。

And the offline immersive entertainment track，It was still uncultivated virgin land a 188bet game ago，In 2018, dozens of entrepreneurial institutions and cultural and creative special exhibitions emerged，with teamLab、万游gravitation、New forms of entertainment represented by OUTPUT etc.，And the offline dividend harvesting model behind it、New crowd、New scene，Looks extremely tempting。

Back to the cultural IP of the Forbidden City，In addition to offline exhibitions, the online cultural variety show "The Forbidden City" has a Douban score of 8.2，Winning the ratings，Pushing the "IP + Cultural Creativity + Consumption" business model to a climax - 188bet game past, if variety shows were good，Everyone’s evaluation may be “good-looking”，Innovation，The most popular comment among netizens on "The Forbidden City" is "You're here to 'cheat' me into buying it again"。

Co-producer of "The Forbidden City"、Producer Hua Chuan Culture and Chairman of Springfield Film and Television Liu Bing revealed to 36Kr，The cooperation with the Forbidden City hit 188bet game off right away，Because both sides are looking for a model to "open up the audience and cultural body，Let cultural symbols enter daily life”。

Liu Bing revealed，In order to combine a rigorous historical perspective with a relaxed theme，The director team of each program must prepare 1.6 meters high information(A4 paper printed on both sides)，In a short period of 188bet game, we must ensure that the Tao of Confucianism and History are closely integrated。But the program is deeply integrated with culture and industry，Did it content、Propagation、Unified steps 188bet game integration of movement and sales。

Based on feedback from product partners，The Pechoin assorted items were sold out 40 minutes after the show aired；150,000 sets of Xiaomi Black Technology Headphones have been reserved during the crowdfunding period；Iflytek’s Alpha Egg was implanted in 188bet game program，Demand exceeds supply；Hua Chuan Culture’s self-operated Forbidden City Changxin Pajamas，Nearly 40,000 units were sold in more than 30 days during the crowdfunding stage。

Looking back at 2018, there were many variety shows that deeply integrated "content + 188bet game"。

The science and technology program "Iron Armor" and "188bet game produced by "Maker Planet"！It’s the iron armor》，Start to be held offline 13.6kg KOB Iron Armor Fighting Global City Tour、Selling robot derivatives。iQiyi’s self-produced variety show “Robot Battle” also authorized the development of 3C products、Clothing、Toys and mobile games of the same name。

The production of "Star Gym 2"、Producer "between culture" and top ten gyms、Cooperation with top ten clothing brands，Content around fitness，From body shaping to healthy dining，Trying to use variety shows and fashion to connect the big health 188bet game。End of content，Formating long-tail revenue through affordable products。

And the network comprehensive market itself，Also ushered in an outbreak this year。according to whales，The network comprehensive market size reached 6.7 billion yuan in 2018，YoY growth 39.58%，In a period of rapid development。Especially 188bet game second half of the year when there is a drama shortage，The platform is basically supported by the head mesh，It is expected that the platform will increase its investment in comprehensive content next year。

Picture 188bet game Jingzhun

Wangsheng IP is 188bet game actively seeking multi-channel commercial monetization.The revenue path of the online content sector has been clarified，Copyright pricing of the four major platforms、The rules for dividing accounts are relatively clear，High-quality content can be sold at a good price，But the ceiling for income from copyright alone is very low，So the downstream needs to do cross-border derivatives，Online、Offline gradually becomes one，188bet game goes back to the “IP+” mentioned at the beginning of 188bet game section。

Build traffic online，Through offline、Industrial cross-border integration and monetization，Will become the main business form of cultural and entertainment IP 188bet game future。Also，The growth space for Internet users is further reduced，Entrepreneurs 188bet game inevitably shift the focus of competition to offline。

Purely offline culture and entertainment，Spiritual consumption upgrade、Cultural Living Space、Experience business is undoubtedly the hot word 188bet game year。Yanji is another case of business model innovation in offline businesses。

Yan Ji opened the flagship store of Xi'an Maike Center，The store covers an area of ​​4500 square meters，But huge rent、The design cost needs to be divided and divided。Through cooperation with commercial real estate，Rent、Operating costs reduced to almost negligible，But through the brand output 188bet game front end，Back-end logistics、Inventory、Supply chain、Data system management, etc.，You can also get long tail、Stable income。

Also，Jincheng, a partner of Yanjiyou’s B+ round lead investor "Hongtai Entertainment 188bet game Fund" believes，“The value of most things can be dismantled，But design、Culture、Artistic Products，It is difficult to dismantle because it contains spiritual added value。”It is similar to the carrier and terminal of spiritual consumption upgrade。

6. Winter 188bet game spring for outstanding entrepreneurs

Cold winter reveals the nature of 188bet game，They become smart and pragmatic。Returning to calmness is a good thing，At least use small to win big、No more thoughts of getting rich，The opportunity has come for those who immerse themselves in their works。Many investors expressed their opinions to 36Kr，The cold winter actually highlights outstanding entrepreneurs，Speculation、Entrepreneurs who attract attention 188bet game be automatically filtered out。

Policy level，Regulation is ultimately for development。As stated at the beginning 188bet game article，Promote the development of cultural industries，It is also about changing the mode of economic growth、Strategies to enhance cultural output and cultural confidence。

Many entrepreneurs，Also starting to explore new forms of technology，Making technical and business reserves for the arrival 188bet game 5G era。The birth of interactive drama，and the application of blockchain technology are among the representatives。

About industrial competition and cooperation，In previous interviews，Entrepreneurs often think that they have no competing products，But today we found out，Competitors never just appear 188bet game within sight。

The waters of the world are connected，Just as the total amount of user time remains unchanged、And balanced distribution in various forms of entertainment consumption。"Population，188bet game is exactly what many entrepreneurs ignore。2018，Fusion of long and short videos，Integration of online IP and offline consumption patterns，Film and television company starts short video drama，Internet celebrities become artists，We media broke through and started retailing offline、Dining and experience space，These are all examples。

2018 is a turbulent year，188bet game is also an unforgettable lesson taught by the market to entertainment entrepreneurs。Forgot IP、Don’t be superstitious about numbers and traffic，Acquire valuable users with good content，Able to generate stable cash flow through business innovation，Only to survive。

*Source of 188bet game article: 36氪，Author: Mo Xiaoli、Mengyue，Original title: "Krypton 2018、Struggle and rebirth》.