A few days ago, the Chengdu Municipal Education Bureau issued a "To teachers, students and parents in the cityAn open letter》，In addition to popularizing the knowledge and protective measures related to the new coronavirus to teachers, students and parents in the city，In particular, it is mentioned that "do not let children participate in social practice such as social practice、Study trips and other gathering activities，Not recommended for traveling with children。”

The Suzhou Municipal Education Bureau also issued the "Initiative Letter to Teachers, Students and Parents of the City" requirements，"Do not participate in any form of group activities, winter camp study tours, etc."。

An open letter issued by the education department to urgently suspend study tours、There are more and more proposals。This is very important for the current prevention and control of the spread of the epidemic，Really necessary。On the other hand，It also shows that the new pneumonia epidemic has a greater impact on the development of study tours。How to scientifically assess the impact on the study travel industry，How to deal with turning "crisis" into "opportunity" now，Needs clarification、Watch。

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Based on a questionnaire survey of front-line study tour companies、Online meeting discussion、Big data analysis, etc.，Our overall judgment，The recovery situation of the study tour industry is not optimistic，It is more difficult than the general tourism industry。After preliminary investigation and analysis，Assuming the epidemic is under control in April，Economic operations will return to normal from May，The epidemic will cause at least a 35-40% reduction in the overall annual revenue of study tourism companies。Unclear understanding of the scale of the industry、Insufficient cash flow、Research enterprises with insufficient professional capabilities will be eliminated by the market。

The potential 188bet app impact is greater than the actual impact and "security" concerns will be further highlighted

Although the Spring Festival is the peak season for tourism，However, due to the characteristics of the study tour industry，The phenomenon of group withdrawals and refunds before and after the Spring Festival in this industry is not very prominent。Although some losses were suffered，However, study tours were not greatly affected in the early stages of the epidemic，This is an obvious feature that distinguishes this round from other sub-tracks in the tourism industry。

During Spring Festival，In addition to the leading companies in study tours, there are also certain winter camps、Outbound study order volume，Most businesses are closed。Generally speaking，Every year from March to November，This is the operating period of the study tour。March-April is the brewing period，May-June gradually enters the peak season，Research climax enters from July to August，September-October period of slow downturn，November is the end of the off-season。

Therefore，From a time perspective，The actual impact of this epidemic on study tours is not great，But the potential impact should not be underestimated。

Although the industry is almost certain，The tourism industry will show a retaliatory rebound after the epidemic、Compensatory rebound，But from another dimension，The epidemic has also increased people’s fear of gathering activities，There will also be potential psychological effects in the short term after the end，Especially in the study tour industry, the requirements for “safety” factors are even more stringent。

It is not easy to maintain the "golden period" of summer. Be mentally prepared in advance

For study trips，Summer is the “golden period” in the absolute sense of the industry。However，Due to the repeated delays in the start of spring classes for students this year，Will there be a focus on making up classes during the summer to compress the summer time，Worth observing，Even this possibility is relatively high。The study and travel industry must be mentally prepared in advance。

Even if the summer vacation is not compressed or the compression time is not long，Organize as a school shortly after recovery、Large-scale outing for classes，The school level also has many concerns due to safety and other comprehensive factors。

Business operations are under increased pressure and industry reshuffle is inevitable

From the overall situation of the study tourism industry in 2019，Many companies are experiencing declining revenue、Profit and loss status。As operating pressure continues to increase，Another new coronavirus epidemic this time，For the study tour industry, it is even worse。

Comprehensive multi-party situation，It can be roughly judged，Study travel companies from all over the country will experience overall decline and losses。Specifically，Study abroad in the first half of 2020、Local social practice activities will be cancelled，Summer study will be severely tested as a result。

Also，Part of the market for study travel service agencies is parent-child travel、Summer camp customers recruited from individual social groups，But this part of the market accounts for less than 20% of the overall study travel，There will also be varying degrees of decline。

Therefore，2020，Study travel companies will experience an inevitable big wave，Insufficient cash flow、Lack of strategic design、The talent team is unstable、Companies with insufficient control over upstream and downstream resources will fade out of this market segment，Industry reshuffle is coming。To a certain extent，This also objectively raises the entry threshold for the research industry，In the future, we need to actively leverage the positive factors of the "Matthew Effect" of this round of research enterprises，In Course Design、Teaching staff configuration、Service details、Dig a "moat" in terms of security and other aspects，Building higher barriers to competition，Open up long-term profitability。

How to face crisis and how to turn crisis into opportunity

Any crisis will breed vitality。As long as the fundamentals of economic development remain unchanged，As long as you study and practice education as quality education、The education goal of “promoting five educations at the same time” has not changed，As long as tourism remains an important way to satisfy people’s pursuit of a better life，The study and travel industry will surely take off again。

Before taking off，How should we understand the crisis、Find out the opportunity，Need the common wisdom of the industry，Also need some methodology。

It is necessary to anticipate the difficulties more severely and increase the intensity of reflection

Don’t be fooled by “Winter is coming，Can spring be far behind?" "After severe winter comes spring" and other arguments go to 188bet app the head，Micro research companies must think about the problem more complexly、Think of the difficulties more seriously。

From a macro environment perspective，We need to compare the economic data before and after 2003 and 2020。2002，GDP value is 103935.300 million yuan，An increase of 8 over the previous year.3%，And continues to be on the upside。However，In recent years，Downward pressure on the economy continues to increase。Macroeconomics from 6 in the first quarter of 2018.8% growth rate starts，GDP growth has been on a downward trajectory for eight consecutive quarters，The GDP growth rate in the third quarter of 2019 and the fourth quarter of 2019 was maintained at 6%。

The macroeconomic environment makes it difficult to be optimistic.The study and travel industry must be mentally prepared for a longer period of struggle，Research companies should be mentally prepared and plan for no revenue for 6 months。

Behind the grim situation，The study trip left a lot worth reflecting on、Warning question。For example，This epidemic has affected the operation of some research bases and camps with private investment，It is a devastating blow。Compared with general research companies，Camp base construction is undoubtedly a typical asset-heavy model。This requires reflection on the overheated development model of base camps: Is this a good model？After all, this dominant model requires high investment、Long return period，Strong dependence on manpower，Short business cycle，High risk。

Need to improve online level to meet the informatization exam

Based on the reality of the epidemic，Some research institutions have launched cloud platforms。Obviously，Study travel online training platform has been active recently，Some famous study tour companies are also actively expanding this type of business。The number of people online in a live study course can often reach thousands，The number can reach 10,000 people。Some content、The topic can still directly address the concerns of the current study and travel industry，For example "After the new pneumonia is over，Under what conditions，Parents will agree to their children’s travel？”etc.。

This is a temporary solution，It is also very inspiring for the future。Related study and travel companies need to study online、In-depth efforts in VR research and other fields，Actively utilize various related services and line product design provided by the cloud platform。However，Related study tour companies don’t have to rush in all the time，We need to start from our own reality，According to enterprise conditions，Improve online level，Welcome to the informatization exam。

Need to work hard to sort out and even re-engineer business processes and models

During the epidemic，Study travel companies can carry out training for employees、Study etc.，Reception process for the company、Course Development、Reorganizing the evaluation system and so on、Review、Improve it，Improve your competitiveness，Strive to achieve high-quality development of future enterprises。

We recommend,Study travel companies need to take advantage of the "gap period" caused by this round of epidemic，Actively practice internal strength，Retain core talents，Plan more in advance in terms of product and business innovation。For example，After this round of epidemic，Will there be any new requirements for the research course？Is it possible to study in nature education、Life Education、Health Education、Patriotic education and other fields present some new forms and contents？

Need and related schools、The education department actively communicates、Communication reflects the company’s overall view and social responsibility

If signed a group agreement，During the epidemic，Should proactively communicate with relevant schools，Promptly terminate the contract，Properly handle related expense issues，We must show the sincerity and responsibility of the enterprise。The study and travel industry is an industry with a strong B-side color，The most short-sighted thinking is to make a one-time deal。Enterprises must have a strategic vision，Exchange losses for trust，Will win long-term customers。

Cooperation agreement under negotiation，Businesses need to understand quickly、Master the School、Student、Parents、Pain points of education departments, etc.、Anxiety points，Good communication、Explanation work，Everything is done with safety as the greatest service purpose，To reflect the company’s overall view and social responsibility。

For customers accumulated in previous years、Potential Customer，Enterprises must communicate as early as possible、Communication，Maintain loyal customer resources、Open up new customer channels，Predict the industry situation，Estimated business volume this year，Make relevant contingency preparations and plans。

Need to establish confidence. In the long run, the industry is still on the rise

From the perspective of industry development trends，The negative impact of this round is temporary、Time periodic。It will be another time period from when students start school this fall to next year，Deserves more expectations。

Overall view，The current market size of study tours is still relatively small，There are still many provinces and cities across the country that have not implemented policies in place，As long as the macroeconomy remains stable and the industry enters a healthy development track，It is predicted that study tours will continue to maintain rapid growth in the future。

"There is no winter that will not pass，There is no spring that will not come”。The premise is，Need to persist until spring。The reason why some study tour companies cannot see spring，Because they have been buried in winter。Stay with it，Stay alive，You can regain your laughter，I am proud of it。

*Source of this article: People’s Daily Client Travel Channel，Author: Wu Ruoshan, Chairman and Chief Researcher of People’s Cultural Tourism Think Tank，Original title:《Wu Ruoshan: The “dangers” and “opportunities” of study tours under the epidemic》