No losses，Flying also loses。Under the new crown epidemic，Passenger volume of major 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino dropped sharply，The civil aviation industry’s huge losses in the first quarter are inevitable。

The aviation industry is a low-profit industry，The revenue side has a greater impact than the cost side，At present, increasing revenue is more critical than reducing costs。The plunge in oil prices has certainly partially offset the adverse situation caused by the epidemic，But the substantial impact still needs to be combined with the specific ways of hedging fuel costs by major 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino。Currently，my country’s civil aviation industry is passing the “resumption of work charter flights”、Policy relief and other measures to ease operational pressure。

After the epidemic，Under cash flow pressure，Mixed reform in civil aviation industry、M&A and restructuring events are expected to heat up。“Like mixed reform、Mergers and acquisitions or other diversified financing methods，May be widely used in the civil aviation industry。I believe in the process of building a powerful civil aviation country in the future，Whether it is financing or risk control，Domestic 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino will definitely come up with more marketization strategies、More diverse ways，Make 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino more stable。" Li Lei, Executive Director of Roland Berger Enterprise Management (Shanghai) Co., Ltd., told reporters。

Big losses 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino first quarter are inevitable

Newly released February operating data，Outlining the “Black February” of the domestic 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino industry。

Evening of March 16th，HNA Holdings Announcement，The 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino carried 48 passengers in February.030,000 people，Decreased by more than 90% year-on-year；Passenger load factor 44.11%，Decreased by more than 40% year-on-year。

Civil 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino Administration data display，February，National civil 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino has completed a total transportation turnover of 25.200 million ton kilometers，Decreased by 73% year-on-year.9%；Passenger traffic 834.00,000 people，Decreased by 84 year-on-year.5%；Freight and mail transportation volume 29.70,000 tons，Decreased 21% year-on-year。

The 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino market is shrinking significantly，The industry’s huge losses in the first quarter are inevitable。

March 12，Zhang Qing, inspector of the Development Planning Department of the Civil 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino Administration, said at the press conference，Affected by the epidemic，Civil 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino enterprise、Especially air transport companies are facing greater operating pressure。February，Industry total loss 245.900 million yuan，Among them，Airline loss 209.600 million yuan，The largest loss record in a single month。

209.600 million yuan loss，This number far exceeds the three major domestic 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino (Air China、China Eastern 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino、China Southern 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino) Total net profit attributable to parent company in 2018 (130.2.8 billion yuan)。

Early March，Photos of China Southern 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino Group’s “Publicity Meeting for Response to Extreme Operational Difficulties” circulated on the Internet。The company subsequently responded to a normal internal meeting，No need to over-interpret it。In the opinion of industry insiders，As the domestic airline with the largest fleet size and number of routes，China Southern 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino’ situation is not in “extreme operating difficulties”，But it also shows the huge impact the epidemic has had on the civil aviation industry。

March 5，Guangzhou Banks Association disclosed on its official WeChat，Industrial Bank Guangzhou Branch has issued 1 billion yuan of ultra-short-term financing bonds for China Southern 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino，Followup，The bank will also issue two phases of debt financing instruments totaling 1.5 billion yuan for China Southern 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino。

China Southern’s way of “quenching thirst” is not just the above-mentioned bond issuance。March 13，China Southern 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino releases response to feedback on application documents for non-public issuance of A shares。End of October 2019，China Southern 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino announced the implementation of the “A+H shares” additional issuance plan，Raised approximately 20 billion yuan。

In the latest reply comments，China Southern 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino says frankly，Since the first quarter of 2020，Passenger travel demand drops sharply，The aviation industry has been significantly affected，The company’s passenger load factor has declined and the daily aircraft utilization rate has decreased。If the adverse impact of the epidemic on the aviation industry lasts for a long time，The company’s income level and profitability are expected to be greatly affected，It may also have an adverse impact on the implementation of investment projects。

Also，China Southern General Aviation Co., Ltd. ("China Southern General Aviation"), a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Southern 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino, is planning to introduce strategic investors。If external capital can be introduced，His mixed-ownership reform move，It can also help China Southern 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino to withdraw funds、Relieving cash flow pressure caused by the epidemic。

actually，Compared to large 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino including China Southern，The situation of small and medium-sized 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino is more severe。“Looking at the overall situation，This new coronavirus epidemic，For small and medium-sized 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino、Companies with higher debt ratios will have a greater impact，A large number of flights are reduced in 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino，Without income，Some small and medium-sized 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino，Because there are many tourist routes、Asset-liability ratio is too high，Carrying some interest costs，Cash flow has been greatly affected，This type of 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino will be particularly difficult during the epidemic。" Li Lei told a reporter from Securities Times·e Company。

At present, the profitability of domestic small and medium-sized 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino is generally poor。2018，The total profit of 60 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino is 250.300 million yuan。Among them，Three major 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino、Spring 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino、The total profit of five 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino including Juneyao 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino exceeds 22 billion yuan。This means，The total profit of the remaining 55 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino is only about 3 billion yuan。

Globally，March 5，British low-cost airline Flybe announces it has entered bankruptcy receivership。Called by Alexandre de Juniac, Director General and CEO of IATA，Focus on the financial crisis of 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino。“Airline cash flow will be under tremendous pressure。Flybe has been crushed。Other 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino may also fall into the last straw dilemma。188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino urgently need emergency measures to survive the crisis。In this darkest moment，Governments should seek all possible measures to help the industry out of trouble。Expand credit line，Reduce infrastructure costs，Reducing tax burden should be included in the government’s relief package。Air transport is vital，If help cannot be provided in time，The entire industry will face an industry financial crisis caused by the epidemic。”

Mixed reform under the 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino

During the epidemic，China Southern 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino’ mixed-ownership reform extends from the group level to the subsidiary level。Beijing Equity Exchange listing information display，China Southern General, a subsidiary of China Southern 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino, plans to increase capital and introduce 2 to 4 strategic investors，And carry out employee stock ownership。This news，further heightens market expectations for the mixed-ownership reform of central aviation enterprises。

China Southern plans to release about 50% of its equity to strategic investors，Employee shareholding ratio is 5%~10%。This means，After introducing new shareholders，China Southern 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino’ shareholding ratio will be reduced to approximately 40%。The project disclosure period ends on March 19。

China Southern 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino plans to use its general aviation business segment for mixed-ownership reform。China Southern General Aviation is the only general aviation company of China Southern 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino，Currently the second largest flight service provider in offshore oil in my country，The fleet size and market share are second only to CITIC Shipping，Market share is about 26%。The company has long-term provided helicopter transportation services for offshore oil and gas exploration and production，And cooperate with the Ministry of Transport to carry out maritime search and rescue work。

During this new coronavirus epidemic，General 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino also makes full use of its "small batches"、Multiple batches、High frequency、Advantages of point-to-point”，Plays an important role in epidemic prevention and control。

On request，Intended investors must have industrial background and industrial resources in the general aviation field。In other words，China Southern 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino is looking for strategic investors that meet the development needs of China Southern 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino’ general business，There are potential business cooperation opportunities for all parties。

Securities Times·e Company reporter called China Southern 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino Securities Affairs Department，The staff did not respond to the progress of China Southern General Aviation’s investment increase，And stated that the matter has not yet met the disclosure requirements for listed companies，Therefore no disclosure，Further disclosure will be made later if necessary。

“The mixed-ownership reform of China Southern 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino did happen during the epidemic，But in terms of reasons，It cannot be said that the epidemic has accelerated its mixed reform。The aviation industry is a typical high debt、Asset-heavy industry，Operation fluctuations will have a great impact on the entire debt crisis。The core reason for mixed-ownership reform is to comply with the central government’s requirements，Reduce the debt ratio level。" Li Lei told a reporter from Securities Times·e Company。

actually，China Southern 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino’ mixed-ownership reform has accelerated since the second half of last year。July 20, 2019，China Southern 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino Group announced the implementation of equity diversification reform，Introducing Guangdong Province at the group level、Guangzhou City、Guangdong Hengjian Investment, the investment entity determined by Shenzhen City、Guangzhou Urban Construction Investment Group、Shenzhen Penghang Equity Investment Fund’s capital increase is 10 billion yuan each，Total capital increase of 30 billion yuan。After this capital increase，The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission holds 61 shares in China Southern 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino Group.798%，The three parties in Guangdong Province each hold 10 shares.445%，Social Security Foundation holds 6 shares.866%。The capital increase will be used for the company’s main business of air transportation。

The above capital increase and share expansion、How to introduce strategic investors，That is, the main path of mixed reform of major aviation state-owned enterprises。However，The special thing about the mixed-ownership reform at the China Southern 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino Group level is，It has not introduced private capital，Instead, introduce a local financing platform，Becomes the first major capital cooperation project between a central enterprise and a local government at the central enterprise group level。This “central-local cooperation” model provides new ideas for mixed reform，It is also regarded by the industry as an innovative move in the mixed reform of central enterprises。

As a special functional central enterprise，State-owned aviation enterprises have been at the forefront of mixed ownership reform。September 2016，The state has clarified the first batch of "6+1" pilot lists for mixed ownership reform。Among them, China Eastern Logistics, a subsidiary of China Eastern 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino Group, became the first batch of mixed-ownership reform pilot enterprises，Also the first in the civil aviation field。

June 2017，China Eastern Logistics introduces non-state-owned capital (Lenovo Holdings、Prologis Investment、Debon Logistics、Greenland and other investors) increase capital and expand shares，And implemented employee stock ownership。From this，China Eastern 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino Group’s shareholding ratio dropped to 45%，Became the first state-owned enterprise to give up its absolute controlling stake during the mixed-ownership reform of central enterprises。Currently，China Eastern Logistics is impacting the A-share listing。

Easy to find，The mixed-ownership reform path of China Southern 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino，It is almost a copy of China Eastern Logistics’ “introducing strategic investment + employee stock ownership” model。

Since the implementation of mixed-ownership reform，188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino Eastern Logistics’ asset-liability ratio dropped significantly。End of 2016、End of 2017、End of 2018，188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino Eastern Logistics’ asset-liability ratio is 65.88%、61.44%、47.58%。

As understood，Air 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino is also promoting the introduction of strategic investors for its cargo logistics assets，And implement employee stock ownership simultaneously。

In recent years，The 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino state-owned enterprises continues to advance、Domestic private express delivery and logistics companies are competing to develop with the help of the capital market，In this context，The air cargo field has become the focus of mixed ownership reform。

Li Lei thinks，The businesses of state-owned 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino that choose mixed ownership reform all have some core characteristics，From the perspective of the development of these businesses，Introducing external strategic investment is very helpful。First，Logistics and other businesses are not traditional main businesses，Their divestiture will not have a major impact on the overall operations of the airline。Second，Whether it is logistics、It is still a general aviation transport，In fact, it requires the injection of some external resources，In order to make this business develop better。

The impact 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino sharp drop in oil prices

Generally speaking，Fuel is the largest cost item for 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino。Recent，International oil prices fell below the US mark，The aviation industry is undoubtedly a direct beneficiary。

Fuel prices play a role in the airline’s overall operating costs，Accounting for about 30%。Take the three major 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino as an example，2019，Air China、China Eastern 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino、China Southern 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino’ fuel cost is 176.1.5 billion yuan、166.2.5 billion yuan、206.1.6 billion yuan，The proportion of total costs is 32.16%、31.83%、31.99%。

Preliminary calculation by Galaxy Securities Research Institute，Assuming that oil prices maintain the baseline scenario from January to February 2020，If oil prices fall by 1% every time from March to June，will be Air China、China Eastern 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino、China Southern 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino saves operating costs in the first half of 2020 0.7.6 billion yuan、0.7.2 billion yuan、0.9.4 billion yuan，Improve gross profit margin by 1.14%、1.73%、1.74%。

Also，In the package of burden reduction policies recently launched by the Civil Aviation Administration，Domestic 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino’ domestic flight aviation kerosene purchase and sale price difference benchmark price reduced by 8%，It will also reduce airline fuel costs to a certain extent。

However，To what extent can major 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino ultimately benefit from falling oil prices，It cannot be generalized，It also depends on how each company hedges its fuel costs。Some insiders pointed out，Oil prices have a great impact on the aviation industry，But its complexity even exceeds the aviation industry itself。

In practice，188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino usually use financial hedging instruments, namely jet fuel hedging，Hedging the risk of oil price fluctuations。But there is also the possibility of "missing" in this operation，China Eastern 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino、Air China incurred huge losses due to jet fuel hedging during the 2008 financial crisis。

Currently，All major 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino are cautious about hedging business。It is reported，China Eastern 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino in terms of fuel，Deliberated and authorized by the Board of Directors，Can carry out hedging business for about 20% of the actual annual fuel consumption。However，China Eastern 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino stated in its 2019 semi-annual report，The company does not conduct jet fuel hedging business。Also，Hainan 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino also stated that the company currently does not operate fuel hedging business。

Staff from the Securities Affairs Department of China Southern 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino told reporters，Oil prices drop，Cost reduction，Really good for the company。But regarding the jet fuel hedging business，The staff member did not respond。

Spring 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino responded，Jet fuel is the largest cost expenditure for 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino，The decline in international oil prices will help reduce the company’s comprehensive operating costs，The company will also continue to pay close attention to the international crude oil market and the market prices of related hedging tools。

China 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino’ evening announcement on March 9th，Planning to carry out crude oil hedging business in a planned manner，To lock in aviation fuel costs，Avoid crude oil、Jet fuel price fluctuation risk。

Li Lei thinks，Globally，The aviation industry is an industry with relatively low profits，The plunge in oil prices is definitely a good thing for the aviation industry。But for the aviation industry，There is an objective law，The impact of revenue is greater than the impact of costs，Falling oil prices can indeed help 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino save costs，It will help the aviation industry to resist risks，But how quickly can it accelerate its recovery from the shadow of the epidemic，In fact, not necessarily。We still need to consider the recovery of the economy，The restoration of public confidence in the economy，Increase in travel flows, etc.。

Northeast Securities believes，The international oil price plummeted，Will help improve the cost side of 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino，However, the degree of improvement in aviation fuel costs depends on the scope and duration of the decline in oil prices，In addition, the country’s policy to protect oil prices is mentioned，No more price cuts for oil prices below ，So even if oil prices continue to be below /barrel，The decline in aviation fuel costs may not be as dramatic as the realization of oil prices in the spot market。

Excellent response in extraordinary times

The new coronavirus epidemic has caused a sharp reduction in flights，188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino want to expand revenue sources，You must first adjust your product structure。

Catalyzed by the epidemic，The new business of "charter flights to resume work" was born。Mid to late February，Major 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino have successively released "Charter Advertisements" - fully undertook by the government、Customized needs for enterprise resumption。Such as Sichuan 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino，Not only can you customize paid charter services on demand，We also cooperated with Huazhu Hotel Group to carry out "charter flights、Cooperation to live with peace of mind。

The Civil Aviation Administration of 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino stated at a regular press conference in March，The Civil Aviation Administration of 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino has opened a green approval channel for charter flights to resume work，Ensure that charter flights can be applied for at any time、Approved in time。As of March 10th，Each airline company has implemented existing scheduled flights，More than 530 charter flights specially arranged for resumption of work and production，Guaranteed more than 2.80,000 trips for people returning to work and production。

Spring 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino said in response to investor questions on the interactive platform，The company is facing the current unfavorable market environment，On the one hand, charter flights are used to help enterprises resume production and work to increase operating income，On the other hand, the company carries out more targeted cost control measures，To alleviate the adverse impact of the current market on operations。

To help 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino tide over the difficulties，March 9，The Civil Aviation Administration of China issued the "Notice on Support Policies for Actively Responding to the New Coronavirus Epidemic"，Propose the implementation of proactive financial and economic policies、Actively promote fee reduction and burden reduction、Increase infrastructure investment、Promote the development of air transport、Sixteen policies and measures in five aspects including optimizing government services，Promote the stable development of the civil aviation industry。

Among them，In promoting the development of air transport，A flexible capacity introduction policy will be implemented，Support guiding 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino to optimize capacity，Simplify the capacity introduction process；Optimize route and flight permission management，Support 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino to flexibly adjust flight plans according to market demand、International route structure and traffic rights quota，Simplified route and flight approval procedures、Time coordination program, etc.，Shorten the approval time limit for the opening (resumption) of international routes；The flight plan for the 2019 winter season has been postponed to May 2，Suspension of assessment of airline flight plan execution rate、Schedule execution rate and flight on-time rate，etc.。

The reduction and exemption policy directly benefits the cost end。Including lowering the territory、Airports for Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan regions and foreign 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino、Air traffic control charging standards，Category 1、The base price of the second-class airport take-off and landing fees is reduced by 10%，Free parking fee，Route charges (except overflights) are reduced by 10%。Domestic 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino’ domestic flight aviation kerosene purchase and sale price difference benchmark price reduced by 8%；etc.。

Also，Direct financial subsidy policy also directly benefits 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino。China 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino Announcement on March 11th，Recently received 2 from the Guizhou Provincial Department of Finance.1.7 billion yuan in regional aviation subsidy funds。

Who 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino take off first?

If we look back at the SARS period in 2003, which was closest to this epidemic，At that time, the entire civil 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino industry returned to its original volume turnover level，It takes about half a year to 9 months。

Under the impact of the new crown epidemic，This time，How long will it take for domestic civil 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino to resume？Li Lei, Executive Director of Roland Berger Enterprise Management (Shanghai) Co., Ltd., said: "The entire new coronavirus epidemic has a wider scope，Tighter control，In addition, civil 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino itself is also more developed than during SARS，So the impact period will be longer。Based on our current judgment，The overall recovery time of domestic civil 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino may have a certain correlation with the recovery of the entire Chinese economy，Optimistic case，If the economy is promising，Restore original turnover level，It may take longer than SARS。If the epidemic spreads seriously around the world，Domestic recovery may be better than international recovery，But whether it is international tourism、Still the resumption of business travel，It may take a year or more。”

188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino is currently the world’s second largest civil aviation market after the United States，In 2019, industry-wide revenue reached 1.06 trillion yuan。

Western Securities Research believes，The current worst demand period may have passed，Although the international and regional markets are still at a low level，But the domestic market is gradually recovering。The suppressed and delayed demand after the 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino will rebound strongly (business matters come earlier than private matters)，Domestic is earlier than international regions)，At the same time, supply continues to be tight，Industrial consolidation is expected to accelerate，Brings greater ticket price and performance flexibility，Airline profitability will be significantly improved。

Right now，Which type of 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino is expected to be the first to emerge from the haze of the epidemic？Li Lei thinks，Generally，Business routes account for a large proportion、A large network airline with relatively good air schedules at major airports，i.e. Air China、China Eastern 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino、China Southern 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino, the three major 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino，And low-cost 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino represented by Spring 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino，The recovery speed will be relatively faster。

188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino, the income source perspective.Chinese customer groups are divided into two categories，The first category is business customers，Mainly for flights between first-tier cities in 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino，For example, Beijing-Shanghai、Beijing-Guangzhou routes。The other category is tourism and leisure customers，For example, Sanya、Routes such as Jiuzhaigou。In terms of recovery，Due to the gradual resumption of work in various industries，Business routes should precede tourist routes，It will take some time for the confidence of the latter group to recover。

Latest data display，Currently，Domestic flight volume has returned to about 40% of normal levels，The passenger flights involved are mainly concentrated 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino southwest、Northwestern and other labor export areas to the Yangtze River Delta、Pearl River Delta and other regions。Among them，Shenzhen、Chengdu、Flight volume at Chongqing and other airports has returned to more than 60% of normal levels。

Secondly, the 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino model dimension.188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino can be divided into full-service 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino and low-cost 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino。When income drops sharply，Who is better at cost research and control，Who is more likely to survive a crisis。Low-cost 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino represented by Spring and Autumn perform better in cost control，The impact is relatively smaller。

Once again, the transportation demand perspective.The impact of the epidemic on passenger 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino is comprehensive，After the personnel turnover is reduced，The overall revenue of passenger 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino has stagnated，But relatively speaking，The impact of air cargo business in the entire cycle is relatively small。

*Source of 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino article: Securities Times, author: Li Manning, original title:《Great changes are brewing in the darkest moments, and expectations for mixed-ownership reform in the civil 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino industry are rising under the epidemic》.