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Big Traffic Author of this article: Ding Yifan 2021-03-31
The domestic aviation market is effective in fighting the epidemic、Maintaining good strength、The loss is relatively light。
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March 30,The three major domestic airlines have successively announced their 2020 full-year financial report data,The three major airlines have a total annual revenue of 2207.0.4 billion yuan,Total loss 370.8.7 billion yuan。But judging from the trend,The situation will improve significantly in the second half of 2020,The industry has strong recovery momentum。

It’s worth noting,Though the three major airlines suffered losses throughout the year,But freight revenue performed outstandingly。China Southern Airlines cargo transportation income 164.9.3 billion yuan,Increased by 71% compared with the same period last year.53%;China Eastern Airlines’ cargo revenue last year was 48.9.5 billion yuan,27 year-on-year increase.94%;Air China’s cargo revenue in 2020 is 85.5.3 billion yuan,28 year-on-year increase.2.1 billion yuan。

Zhou Hua, an expert on Civil Aviation Resources Network said,Judging from the financial report data for the first three quarters and the full-year performance forecast data released by each airline,Although it was a loss throughout the year,But look at it in stages,The situation improved significantly in the second half of last year,Some airlines such as China Southern、Spring and Autumn and Auspiciousness,Net profit has turned positive,This shows that the industry has strong recovery momentum。From a regional perspective,The recovery of the domestic market is obviously better than that of the international market。

Comparing the 2020 financial reports of the four major U.S. airlines,All airlines affected by the epidemic showed losses in Q1-Q4 single quarters,In 2020, Southwest Airlines’ record of 47 consecutive years of profitability ended,A total loss of 30% throughout the year.USD 7.4 billion,American Airlines’ Q1-Q4 single-quarter losses exceeded US$2 billion,United Airlines’ Q1-Q4 single-quarter losses exceeded US$1.5 billion,American Airlines、United Airlines suffered a huge annual loss of 88.$8.5 billion and 70.USD 6.9 billion,Delta Airlines even lost $53 in Q3 alone.188bet app download USD 7.9 billion,There was a huge loss throughout the year 123.USD 8.5 billion。

Review of 2020,my country’s air travel demand has dropped significantly,Although the domestic epidemic has gradually been brought under control since the second half of the year,Domestic routes have resumed and improved,However, international routes are still greatly affected。Especially after entering winter,Increasing pressure on overseas imports,Coupled with the recurrence of epidemics in some areas across the country and the off-season and other comprehensive factors,Civil aviation passenger traffic dropped slightly from November to December 2020,Passenger traffic volume in November dropped by 16% year-on-year.3%,The decline expanded to 19 in December.8%。Looking at the whole year of 2020,Except HNA,The ASK/RPK of domestic routes of other airlines have recovered to around 65%-90% of the same period in 2019,Among them, Spring Airlines has been relatively repaired the fastest,Domestic route ASK/RPK has exceeded the level of the same period in 2019。Meanwhile,The RPK/ASK recovery of international routes of major airlines is only between 10% and 20% of the same period in previous years。

Civil aviation has a bad start in 2021,Entering January,Passenger traffic dropped by approximately 40% compared to the same period in 2020,The number of passengers sent during the 7-day Spring Festival is only 357.40,000 people,Decreased by 71 compared with the same period last year.7%。In addition, during this year’s Spring Festival (January 28th-March 8th),Due to the impact of superimposed factors such as repeated epidemics in some areas,The civil aviation industry as a whole showed a "continuous downturn in the first half",Characteristics of rebound in the second half,During the Spring Festival this year, civil aviation carried a total of 35.39 million passengers,Decreased by 7% compared with the same period last year.78%,Decreased by approximately 51 compared to 2019.44%。

Some insiders said,The global epidemic has not yet subsided,International routes continue to be sluggish,Coupled with the spread of the domestic epidemic,Domestic airlines still have the risk of losing money in the first quarter of 2021。春秋、Private airlines such as Juneyao Airlines rely on streamlined fleets、More flexible operations and relatively higher profitability,Resumption of business will be relatively fast。

The epidemic has had a huge impact on the balance sheets of Chinese airlines,With the normalization of epidemic prevention 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino and control, the introduction of transport capacity has become more cautious。It is understood that the introduction of aircraft by listed airlines in 2021 has slowed down,Among the three major airlines, the aircraft introduction growth rate this year is less than 5%,Spring Airlines and Juneyao Airlines have relatively high growth rates,Only 9 respectively.8% and 12%。

But with the end of Spring Festival,Civil aviation demand is also recovering。March 9-13,Civil aviation sends an average of 139 passengers per day.80,000 people,An increase of 506 compared with the same period in the lunar calendar in 2020.6%,Only 14 lower than the same period in the 2019 lunar calendar.3%。March 15,The Ministry of Culture and Tourism announced the lifting of restrictions on the number of people allowed in entertainment venues in low-risk areas,Beijing’s cancellation of nucleic acid test certificates for low-risk areas entering Beijing since March 16 means the relaxation of domestic tourism。In addition, as vaccination in various countries continues to advance and domestic business travel demand begins to rebound rapidly,And Fei Changzhun、Many ticket booking platforms such as Qunar.com show Qingming Festival、Air tickets and hotel bookings surge during May Day,The tourism popularity driven by it continues to rise,These are all releasing positive signals for the stable recovery of the domestic civil aviation market。In addition, to support civil aviation through difficulties,Various national departments have successively introduced a number of supporting policies,Actively respond to the negative impact on the civil aviation industry,It may improve the operating difficulties of airlines during the epidemic。Nu Xin’s “Public Air Passenger Service Management Regulations”,It not only strengthens the system and mechanism of market-led civil aviation operations,Conducive to airline product and marketing innovation,Also increase auxiliary income,Conducive to the long-term development of operationally efficient airlines。

Civil aviation expert Wang Jiangmin said,Comparison with the overall global aviation market,The domestic aviation market is effective in fighting the epidemic、Maintaining good strength、The loss is relatively light。In particular, many airlines such as Xiamen Airlines and China Xia are still profitable in 2020,Or close to profit。Vaccine vaccination is now being promoted,The market’s confidence has shown some signs of success。As long as domestic epidemic prevention and control remains stable,The market can not only recover gradually,There will even be a larger 188bet sports betting app download increase,Especially Qingming、May Day holiday,and the next 7、8、Traditional market peak season in September,Everything will help the market to improve。

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Judging from the situation of the summer and autumn sailing seasons of 2021,Each airline has opened a number of new domestic routes in the new season,And optimized the route network structure。According to the Civil Aviation Administration,This year’s flight season change presents some new features。Domestic routes continue to have loose traffic rights management policies,Continue to allow airlines to arrange overtime or temporarily operate flights,Support airlines to flexibly adjust capacity,Based on the domestic market,Expand the scale of domestic circulation,Promote the construction of "Ganzhitong",Fully connected” air transportation service network,Further improve the accessibility and convenience of civil aviation。

Flight schedule for this summer and autumn season,Domestic flights,Domestic airlines plan to arrange a total of 92,756 domestic flights per week,10% increase compared to the same period last year in the summer and autumn sailing seasons of 2020.7%。Among them,90460 passenger flights per week,10 year-on-year increase.6%。According to Haitong Securities statistics, civil aviation pre-flight system schedule data display,Among domestic listed airlines,Domestic flight volume has a high growth rate in the new season。Among them, Spring Airlines has the highest growth rate,Significant increase of 21% year-on-year in summer and autumn of 2020.6%;Juneyao Airlines、China Airlines increased by 12% year-on-year respectively.3%、9.6%;Air China (including Shenzhen Airlines)、China Southern Airlines (including Xiamen Airlines)、China Eastern Airlines (including Shanghai Airlines) increased by 10% year-on-year.6%、12.2%、6.1%。

Details are in the route arrangement,Air China will take effect during Qingming Festival、Additional investment in domestic routes before and after the May Day holiday,Mainly including Hainan Island and East China、Western and other traditional tourist hotspot routes。simultaneously,Planned in Sanya、Haikou、Chengdu、Chongqing、Hangzhou、Kunming、Invest more wide-body aircraft on routes such as Shanghai,And arrange some overtime on popular tourist routes;China Eastern Airlines’ daily average flight volume will reach more than 2,830 flights,Among them, there are approximately 2,820 domestic and regional flights per day,790 routes leading 188bet app to 184 navigation points in 34 provinces, cities and regions across the country;China Southern plans to open 29 new domestic routes,Navigation points increased to 161,Domestic flight volume increased by more than 25% year-on-year in the summer and autumn of 2019;Spring Airlines’ weekly domestic flight volume is expected to reach 3,248,An increase of nearly 70% compared with the same period in 2019;Juneyao Airlines plans to open and resume 14 domestic routes,Involving Shanghai、Flights in and out of more than 20 cities including Wenzhou,Further strengthened East China and Central China、North China、Connections between emerging tourism cities in Northeast China。

Civil aviation expert Wang Jiangmin said,Looking at the flight deployment situation of domestic airlines in the summer and autumn seasons,Transportation capacity has not only increased significantly,And due to the further expansion and improvement of various airport facilities,Also allows airlines to add more new timetables and routes,This is a positive factor for airlines to increase their capacity and further resume production。Of course,The current recovery and increase in the domestic aviation market will not be a big problem,Increasing revenue and profitability still requires a long process。After all,The recovery of international routes is still not optimistic,This requires coordination by governments of all countries,And develop effective traffic plans,Only when the border is opened can it be implemented。When international routes are not open,It is difficult for airlines to improve their aircraft utilization rate,Increased costs are still a heavy burden。If international routes can be gradually opened in the second half of this year,The aviation market will have a better rebound。

Civil Aviation Expert、Associate Professor Qi Qi of Guangzhou Civil Aviation Vocational and Technical College thinks,Airline performance in terms of volume,Especially in March after the Spring Festival,Domestic passenger volume is basically the same as the same period in 2019。From the perspective of profitability,Continued high supply of domestic transport capacity,Continued high supply of domestic transport capacity,The quality still needs to be improved。The development of airline companies lies in the transformation ability of normalized epidemic prevention,Especially the ability to build an aviation ecosystem based on its core comparative advantage products。The characteristic of the new aviation season is to keep pace with the times and shift the guaranteed 188bet sports betting app download international flight schedules of my country's air passenger transport hubs at all levels to domestic flights,The domestic passenger market will continue to be oversupplied in the new season,International passenger transport will not resume,This situation will continue。The domestic passenger transport market will rebound rapidly in 2021,Most likely to return to the pre-epidemic growth track,Make up the quantity gap in 2020 as soon as possible,But if the average ticket price is difficult to move up,Coupled with the uncertainty of international oil prices and US dollar exchange rate,Resulting in significant pressure on airlines’ ability to improve profitability。In addition, the vaccination rate is an indicator of the recovery of the international passenger market,But what is more important is the confidence of Chinese people in the epidemic prevention capabilities of overseas countries,As well as international mutual recognition of each other’s epidemic prevention test results and vaccine epidemic prevention efficiency,There must also be some policy considerations involved。

*This articleSource:Civil Aviation Resources Network, Author: Ding Yifan, original title:The three major airlines released their 2020 annual reports and showed strong recovery momentum in the second half of the year,The domestic cycle may become normal in 2021》. 

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