IATA has recently lowered its recovery expectations for the global civil aviation industry，Believe that the aviation industry will still go through a very difficult period before a full recovery。Experts pointed out，Governments of various countries still need to further increase industry policy support，The aviation industry itself also needs to continuously accelerate the pace of structural adjustment and transformation。

The industry report recently released by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) shows that，Global civil aviation passenger volume fell by 75% year-on-year in 2020.6%，Airlines’ overall losses reached US$118.5 billion，International routes have been reduced from 30,000 before the epidemic to about 1 now.20,000 items。It is expected that the global aviation industry will only recover to 33%-38% of the pre-epidemic level by the end of 2021，Less than the previous prediction of 51%。IATA calls on governments to take further effective assistance measures。

Industry insiders pointed out，Affected by factors such as the rebound of the epidemic in many places and the continued ban on policies，The recovery of the global aviation industry faces multiple challenges。

188bet app

According to the 2020 operating status reports recently released by many airlines around the world，Affected by the epidemic，The aviation industry is in an unprecedented industry dilemma。For example，188bet sports betting app download All three major European airline groups suffered serious losses，The Lufthansa Group’s losses in 2020 amounted to 6.7 billion euros；International Airlines Group’s annual loss reaches 74.300 million euros，The group’s transportation capacity has been reduced by 2/3；Air France-KLM Group lost 7.1 billion euros，Passenger traffic dropped by 67%。

Except airlines，Profits of major airports and aircraft manufacturers around the world have also experienced serious declines。Airbus Group lost 11% in fiscal year 2020.300 million euros，The annual aircraft delivery volume was only 566 aircraft，34 year-on-year decrease.4%。According to Airports Council International statistics，Global airport operating revenue decreased by US$111.8 billion in 2020，Down 65% year-on-year。

IATA chief economist Brian Pierce said，The global aviation industry will not fully recover earlier than 2024，The industry will still go through a very difficult period before this。The future recovery of the global aviation industry will show a "K" shaped imbalance，That is, the domestic market will recover earlier than the international market，Leisure travel business precedes business travel business，The markets of developed countries are earlier than those of developing countries and regions。

Said Rick Ruhmann, senior expert in the aviation field of ING Group，The sustainable recovery of the global aviation industry will be postponed to the second half of 2021，This ultimately depends on the progress of vaccination and adjustments to various countries’ travel policies。The aviation industry also faces other risks，Such as the recent rising fuel prices, etc.。Since fuel costs account for 15%-30% of the total expenses of airlines，The continued rise in oil prices in the future will put greater pressure on airlines that are already facing severe financial risks，Hindering its pace of recovery。

Government assistance and industry self-help simultaneously

To 188bet online sports betting help the aviation industry get out of the haze of the epidemic as soon as possible，Governments of various countries continue to increase their efforts to rescue the aviation industry。As of now，Governments pass bailout、Subsidy、Loan、Financing、Various ways such as tax reduction and exemption，Provided more than US$225 billion in financial assistance to global airlines。For example，The French and Dutch governments provide aid totaling 10 billion euros to Air France-KLM，Germany passed a 9 billion euro rescue package for Lufthansa Group。

International organizations and governments also provide necessary support to the aviation industry in terms of policies and regulations。Some countries and regions have suspended fixed-slot takeoff and landing rights regulations。According to previous rules，Airlines need to maintain at least 80% takeoff and landing utilization，Only in order to reserve the right to use specific time periods and seats。After policy adjustment，Airlines can adjust flight plans more flexibly，without facing penalties。

November 2020，IATA also launches a “Digital Health Pass” system designed to support safe and open borders，Hope to record passengers’ virus test results and vaccination status information，To achieve safe cross-border travel。EU、Regional organizations such as the African Union have also recently launched similar digital travel pass systems。

Currently，Major airlines are improving their operational capabilities through industry self-rescue。According to statistics，The average cost reduction ratio of global airline companies in 2020 will reach 45.8%。In view of the stable demand for air cargo business，Many airlines have increased the number of cargo flights by converting passengers into cargo，To maintain profit margins。According to IATA data，Global air 188bet sports betting app download cargo revenue reaches US$117.7 billion in 2020，About 50% of air cargo is transported by passenger aircraft，Global air cargo volume is expected to increase by 10% year-on-year in 2021。

Some airlines also provide mortgage financing through frequent flyer programs，Sell frequent flyer points to bank、Supermarkets, etc. obtain funds，The latter uses this to attract customers。

All parties call for accelerating industry transformation and adjustment

In fact，The global civil aviation industry had already shown signs of slowing demand growth even before the epidemic，Relevant agencies require the aviation industry to accelerate transformation and adjustment。

Paul Chieni, Chief Risk Operations Officer of Avolon, an Irish aircraft leasing company, said，In the 10 years before the crisis，The global aviation industry is in a stage of rapid expansion，However, corporate debt risks also accumulate，The current total debt level of global airlines has reached 220 billion US dollars。The next 10 years will be an important period for deleveraging in the aviation industry，The primary goal is to reduce debt risks and corporate burdens。Airlines will pay more attention to cost and scale control，Adopt a more flexible market strategy，The pursuit of sustainable development model。

Lei Zheng, director of the International Aviation Research Institute headquartered in the UK, believes，The civil aviation industry has long-term low profit margins、Structural problems such as poor ability to resist risks，In the future, aviation companies need to further strengthen their risk resistance and market adaptability，Ensure sufficient cash flow。The crisis will further promote the adjustment of business models of global airline companies，For example, sharing risks through more route network sharing and complementation。For aircraft manufacturers，188bet app download In the future, more factors of functional conversion should be taken into consideration in aircraft design，For example, how to transform from a passenger aircraft to a cargo aircraft more conveniently。

Luman suggestion，Governments of various countries should promote the transformation of the global aviation industry into a more sustainable development direction through industry rescue measures。For example，The French government will reduce emissions、Investment in energy-efficient aircraft models and reduction of short-haul routes are additional conditions for providing assistance to domestic aviation companies。

IATA’s recent passenger opinion poll results show，Confidence in returning to air travel is increasing，57% of the respondents said they would choose air travel within two months after the epidemic is controlled，An increase of nearly 8 percentage points compared with the third quarter of last year。Said Juniac, Chairman and CEO of IATA，The recovery prospects of the global aviation industry remain optimistic in the long term，In particular, people’s willingness to travel is still very strong，And the financial status of most international tourists’ families is good。“We need to reopen our borders as soon as it is safe to do so，And gradually lift the isolation policy，Thus restoring people’s confidence in traveling”。

*This articleSource: People's Daily, author: Zheng Bin, original title: "International aviation coordination lowers global aviation industry recovery expectations (international perspective)》.