It has been soaring in the past 5 years since its establishment、Meituan, which is highly sought after by the capital market，It seems to have encountered new troubles this time: although there have been news of seeking a new round of financing for several months，All kinds of gossip are flying everywhere，But it is still not finalized so far，In order to change the passive situation，The company had to deal with those who “spread rumors about Meituan’s financing failure” recently，Initiated litigation action。 

For an entrepreneurial star，This seems a bit abnormal。Although the uncertainty in the capital market may have discouraged some investors，But looking at the major Internet companies today，Many people have had the experience of successfully financing in the trough of the capital market，Even in the current Chinese market，188bet online sports betting andAre you hungryAlso just raised hundreds of millions of dollars. What's more,MeituanIn a period of annual growth exceeding 100%、A market coveted by many giants。 

Therefore，Yin Sheng thinks that Meituan’s round of financing has not yet come to fruition，Probably not a willingness to invest (in fact, there are not many investment targets in the market at present)，And more likely it’s the price。October last year，I once valued Meituan at US$7 billion，This valuation was verified in the financing round finalized earlier this year。But the situation has changed significantly since then，This may have a significant impact on investors’ expectations and valuation logic: 

On the one hand，Because there is no hope of profit for a long time，Meituan’s “master” Groupon continued to squeeze the bubble during this period - the current market value is only US$2.5 billion，It has shrunk by nearly 90% compared to the IPO a few years ago;Another company has a slightly different model、But the market value of Yelp, a company in the same field, has also shrunk by more than 80%，Only US$1.4 billion left。This will scare potential investors。 

On the other hand，BAT, giants with huge sums of money, are suddenly accelerating their deployment in the O2O field of life services，For example, Baidu announced a high-profile investment of 20 billion yuan in Nuomi in the next three years，Alibaba and its subsidiary Alipay have also announced ambitious plans，Yin Sheng already mentioned this during last year’s valuation，That is, the important strategic value of this field in determining the future status of the Internet industry，It may allow BATs to seize it at all costs。 

The current situation of Groupon and Yelp does tend to make people pessimistic about the future of group buying as a business model，For this mode，A major paradox is: 

Unlike physical goods, production capacity can be easily expanded，And less subject to delivery time constraints，The provision of services is susceptible to time and service capacity constraints，This means that good suppliers have strong bargaining power，And on the user side，Due to irregularities in service design and delivery，Excessive fragmentation also prevents companies from integrating through integration，The localization feature makes it easier to establish direct contact between users and merchants，These make users volatile、Price sensitive and have bargaining power。 

This may put Meituan in a very bad situation - unable to establish real competitive barriers and user transfer costs。Although it leads in scale，But this leadership in scale cannot be transformed into an advantage in economies of scale，Or other first-mover advantages，On the contrary, the larger the scale, the more losses，Thus having to continue to rely on external financing。This in turn dilutes the shares of the founders and management，And reduce the competitiveness of core employees。At the same time，The pressure on the capital chain may also force it to put pressure on merchant accounts，This will reduce its competitiveness on the merchant side。 

This means，Over a long period of time，It may be difficult for independent companies like Meituan that focus on local life services to make a profit，Under competitive pressure，The value brought by any efficiency improvement of the company will eventually be transferred to the hands of users and merchants。But it is different for BAT，They have all established solid business models in their respective fields，So there are opportunities to solve the profitability problem through cross-selling and subsidies，And this means that they will keep pressure on their opponents in terms of commission rates and so on for a long time。 

The reality is，Meituan’s market share seems to be showing a bad trend since this year - declining，Although currently there are conflicting data sources on this，Unable to be fully confirmed yet。For example, the market share in the first half of the year officially provided by Meituan is 188bet online sports betting 62%，But according to group 800，Meituan’s market share in June was only 53.6%，compared to 57% in December，According to Analysys，Meituan’s market share in the first half of the year was 51.9%，compared to 56% in the same period last year。 

Therefore, for Meituan’s valuation, three situations can be assumed: in the first case，Meituan will eventually become like BAT、A platform with tens of billions or even hundreds of billions of dollars like JD.com，The probability is 40% (at last October’s valuation，I assume the probability is 60%);The second situation also accounts for 40%，Meituan was eventually acquired or controlled by other large platforms;The last situation，Meituan maintains independence and IPOs，But like Groupon, the future is uncertain。 

The first situation may occur when external capital invests a large amount of money continuously，The company's strategic execution continues to be strong and the strategy of continuing to take offense，No major changes in the industry，For example, mature merchants may adopt more independent service models，Thus further lowering the threshold for turning to opponents;The second situation may occur when the introduction of external capital is not smooth，The company’s strategic execution ability has declined，There is a serious mismatch between revenue growth and transaction volume growth;The third situation occurs when execution ability decreases，Transaction volume share continues to decline，Bleeding IPO under the pressure of capital realization。 

Also assume that the transaction volume in 2015 is 110 billion yuan，The compound growth rate of revenue in the next few years under the three scenarios is expected to reach 80~120% respectively，60~80%，20~60%，Combined with the current valuation levels of large Internet companies listed in the United States，The expected PSG in 2015 under three scenarios is 0.4、0.36 and 0.24，$10.3 billion 188bet app for each of the three scenarios、US$6.5 billion and US$4.1 billion valuation，Comprehensive valuation of US$7.5 billion，This valuation level reflects the higher risks currently faced by investors。 

This valuation is equivalent to nearly three times the current market value of Groupon，Comparable to the valuation of the financing round at the beginning of the year，Mainly because the commission rate continues to decrease (assuming that the commission rate is 1 in the first two cases.5%，The commission rate is 2 in the latter case.5% - Pass more aggressively、But the implementation of a monetization strategy that may harm long-term value，And 2~2.5% is the current monetization rate level of Alibaba and Baidu，However, due to competitive pressure, the real commission rate for group buying in the next few years may be lower than this)，As well as the increased risk of becoming a large platform like BAT，In addition, the depreciation of the RMB also has some influence。 

Generally，For this business for 5 years、For a company that has survived a thousand regiment wars，What we are facing now may be unprecedented but much worse challenges，Wang Xing’s challenge may be far greater than Liu Qiangdong’s from 2010 to 2013，Although JD.com was growing rapidly at that time，But troubled by the pressure and rumors of broken capital chain，But after all, the model and future of physical e-commerce was relatively clear at that time，But now the group buying model and profit prospects are full of more variables。