1、The latest Central Economic Work Conference，Probably the most important one in recent years。To be precise，The core is not supply-side reform，It’s about supply-side improvements。The earliest mention was "supply-side reform" ("supply-side reform" was mentioned 4 times in 9 days after the Central Financial and Economic Leading Group meeting on November 10)，Later, the market was booming，The central government began to significantly weaken this formulation (the entire Politburo meeting on December 14 did not provide for side reforms，Only talking about expanding effective supply, etc.)，At this meeting, it became "supply-side structural reform"。The central government’s slight adjustments to key formulations are to guide social expectations、Avoid misunderstanding: What the central government wants is to “improve the effectiveness of supply” (improvement)，Instead of market understanding, eliminate ineffective supply (revolution)。What the central government wants is to “improve investment effectiveness”，Instead of giving up investment。This is based on a basic judgment: overcapacity is "structural"。For the market，Don’t mistakenly think that 188bet online live casino a large-scale wave of bankruptcy liquidation，The central government has given the clearest rebuttal: "As many mergers and reorganizations as possible、Less bankruptcy liquidation”。The attributive to resolving overcapacity is not only “positive”，There is also "safe"。
2、Fiscal policy wants to be the protagonist，But I’m afraid it’s not enough。It is no secret that the fiscal deficit rate has increased，But the symbolic meaning may be greater than the substantive meaning，Because this is a passive adjustment after a decline in income。The fiscal revenue target set at the beginning of 2015 is 7.3%，But it has only increased by 5 so far.7%，There is also a considerable amount of evacuated funds，In fact, the fiscal revenue of many local governments has experienced negative growth。This directly caused the fiscal expenditure from January to November this 188bet online live casino to significantly exceed the revenue of 1 trillion，The largest deficit in the history of statistics (most of the time it was a surplus，Last 188bet online live casino there was a surplus of 328.7 billion)。If calculated according to the fiscal expenditure rhythm over the years，The fiscal deficit at the end of this 188bet online live casino may exceed 3 trillion，Even if you consider spending money in advance this 188bet online live casino，The fiscal deficit at the end of the 188bet online live casino may also reach 2 trillion，Assume GDP in 2015 is 68 trillion，The corresponding deficit rate has touched 3%。
Inferred from this，It is difficult to make "big moves" in tax cuts and expenditure increases next year，You can pay attention to some "small actions"。First, accelerated depreciation of fixed assets，To "support enterprise technology transformation and equipment update"。According to the experience of 2014，Traditional industries and emerging industries may be treated differently，TMT、Emerging industries with large expenditures on R&D equipment such as high-end equipment manufacturing 188bet online live casino benefit the most。The second is to reduce the value-added tax rate in the manufacturing industry。Medicine、Non-metallic mineral products、Papermaking、Manufacturing industries with higher value-added tax rates such as building materials may benefit the most。
3、Monetary policy wants to play a supporting role，But I’m afraid I can’t help myself。It is not surprising that monetary policy continues to set a "stable" tone，After all, the central bank has never wanted to be labeled as "excessive release of water"，Especially since the deposit base interest rate is close to 1%、When CPI stabilizes。But in fact，The central bank, which has worked hard for a year, still won’t be able to relax next year，Because of several factors, he can’t help but frequently lower his accuracy: First，The supply pressure of local debt replacement and special financial bonds next year 188bet online live casino be significantly greater than this year，Direct impact on interest rates。The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to “do a good job in replacing existing local government debts”，It is expected that the replacement scale next year 188bet online live casino exceed this year。In addition, the supply of special financial bonds and other government bonds 188bet online live casino also increase significantly，This year’s 600 billion is just the beginning，Expected to at least double next year。Second，The decline in capital account deficit and foreign exchange holdings next year 188bet online live casino still be the general trend，Indirect impact on interest rates。This year’s central bank-caliber foreign exchange holdings dropped sharply by 1.5 trillion，In 2013 and 2014, the increase was 2 respectively.8 trillion and 641.1 billion，The coming and going creates a base currency gap of nearly 2 trillion per year，Necessary to lower reserve requirements for hedging，The number of RRR cuts next year 188bet online live casino not be less than this year。
4、Economic growth target bids farewell to the 7th era，Towards the 6th Era。The economic growth target will not be officially announced until the two sessions next year，There seems to be no clue from the Central Economic Work Conference，But it is expected to be reduced to 6.5% is a high probability event。The core reason is that we are unable to maintain a growth rate of 7% this year and next year。(1) Let’s talk about this year first，Estimated maximum 6.9%。The financial industry has returned to normal in the fourth quarter，Deposit and loan growth rate、Securities transaction volume has slowed down significantly compared with the first three quarters，This directly limits the possibility of economic rebound。From a historical perspective，If the goal is not achieved that year，It will definitely lead to a reduction in growth target，For example, 1998 and 2014。(2) Let’s talk about next year，6.It is not easy to achieve 5% of the goal。There is no change in the primary industry’s contribution in 2015，The secondary industry drives less 0.About 9 percentage points，The tertiary industry will stimulate more 0.About 6 percentage points。Look at the trend first，188bet online live casino no obvious fluctuations in the primary industry in 2016，The secondary industry’s contribution is likely to decline，The contribution of the tertiary industry will continue to rise。Re-estimate the range，The cyclical downward pressure in 2016 should be between 2015 and 2014，Calculated based on the average of 2014 and 2015，Assuming that the secondary industry drives less 0.6，The tertiary industry will stimulate more 0.3，Calculated in this way, the growth rate in 2016 should be 6.6-7%，Even if the target is lowered, it has just been completed。
5、Under Chinese New Supply Doctrine，The liquidity feast 188bet online live casino only be suspended，It 188bet online live casino not end。Recently communicated with many friends from asset management institutions，Everyone has the same feeling，Although the economy is getting weaker，But there are more and more funds。This is true from the data，M2 from 122 in the past year.8 trillion to 137.4 trillion，Financial management from 15 trillion to 20 trillion，Public offering funds from 4.5 trillion to 6.8 trillion，Fund subsidiaries and special accounts from 3.7 trillion to 6.1 trillion，Private placement from 2.1 trillion to 3.9 trillion，Insurance from 10 trillion to 11.8 trillion...in the final analysis，Economic growth is a flow concept，Allocation of funds is a stock concept，Economic downturn and wealth growth are not contradictory。
Under this liquidity-driven logic，Most of the time there is no so-called stock and bond rotation，There is only stock-bond linkage。When liquidity tends to be loose，The stock and bond market, which itself has a liquidity premium, is showing a double bull (for example, it has been orderly breaking the rigid redemption since the beginning of 2014 until now，Liquidity is generally becoming more relaxed，Stocks and bonds have risen a lot)；When liquidity becomes tight，188bet online live casino double bears in stocks and bonds (for example, stocks and bonds performed poorly before and after the stock market crash in June)。It’s just that the reaction of the bond market, which is dominated by institutional investors, is generally ahead of the stock market, which is dominated by retail investors，For example, the bond market had already fallen before the stock market crash in June。

As long as the following three scenarios do not occur，The bull market fundamentals under the logic of "more money" 188bet online live casino not end:
The first scenario: money is "burned" by policies，Restart large-scale stimulus。Then the stock market may have a bull market in the short term due to improved cash flow (similar to 2010)，But because of this cash flow, it is impossible to make a profit，On the contrary, it exacerbates overcapacity and debt burden，The stock market 188bet online live casino then fall into a long bear market。
The second scenario: money is "eaten" by risk，That triggers systemic financial risks，Concentrated market clearing。For example, the central government suddenly and aggressively cleared excess production capacity，Or the corporate debt chain is broken，A large number of bankruptcy liquidations，Resulting in the rapid shrinkage of total social financing，Extreme credit crunch，Money creation has stalled。Under this scenario, the stock market 188bet online live casino plummet in the short term，But after the clearing is completed，You 188bet online live casino be healthier、A longer-lasting real bull market。
The third scenario: the money "escaped" abroad，Large-scale capital flight occurs，Exchange rate collapse。The loss in the second scenario is the money multiplier，What is lost in this scenario is the real base currency。Assuming a more radical opening of the capital account，Or we made a mistake in managing exchange rate expectations，leading to massive capital flight，No matter how much money you have, it’s useless，Because excess funds 188bet online live casino be allocated overseas，Rather than passively allocate to the domestic stock and bond market。
Currently，At least in 2016, the above three scenarios are unlikely to occur: (1) The probability of the first scenario occurring is 10%。The first core of Chinese-style new supplyism is not to engage in large-scale stimulus，The central government has repeatedly emphasized that demand management must be appropriate。(2) The probability of the second scenario happening is 20%，The central government began to emphasize strengthening supply-side reform，But as stated，What the central government wants is actually supply improvement，Instead of radical clearing。(3) The probability of the third scenario happening is 20%。The interest rate gap between China and the United States continues to narrow，Inversion may occur in the future，Coupled with the narrowing of the domestic savings-investment gap，The risk of future capital outflows does exist，But for now，Domestic capital controls have been appropriately strengthened (such as the recent suspension of RQDII)，The ability to control capital outflows in the future 188bet online live casino still be significantly stronger than other countries。
The most likely scenario in 2016 is to maintain the status quo: no systemic financial risks，No large-scale stimulus，No large-scale capital flight。The expectation is getting weaker and weaker，Risk-free interest rates continue to fall，More and more “money”，Stocks and bonds continue to be sought after by funds as the most liquid assets。Many people 188bet online live casino worry that such a market boom has no fundamentals，But perhaps the lack of fundamentals is the biggest fundamental of the current market。