Abstract

Consumption upgrading in third- and fourth-tier 188bet online sports betting is currently underway.The phenomenon of consumption upgrading has been widely recognized in first- and second-tier 188bet online sports betting，Since Double Eleven last year、2017 New Year Festival、Consumption during the Spring Festival，We have also observed signs of consumption upgrading in third- and fourth-tier 188bet online sports betting，This is not only reflected in the acceleration of real estate depuration and price increases in lower-tier 188bet online sports betting since the third quarter of 2016，This is further reflected in the fact that consumers have generally increased their awareness of overseas brands、Maternity and baby products、Consumption proportion of beauty products, etc.。We believe that the consumption upgrade in third- and fourth-tier 188bet online sports betting will become an important area and catalyst for the large consumer industry in 2017，will be effectively reflected in the report，Promote retail、Education、Sports、Performance improvement in tourism and other sub-sectors。Report switched from mainstream consumer groups、Population movement、Real Estate Trends、Thinking about geopolitical changes and other perspectives。

Switching to mainstream consumer groups.The youngest born in the 1990s has grown up，The switch of mainstream consumer groups has basically been completed，Post-80s、Post-90s generation has officially become the main consumer force，This group pursues product quality more，Care more about lifestyle。Take lipstick consumption as an example，Post-80s + post-90s accounted for a total of 85% of lipstick consumption during the New Year Festival.64%，And in terms of overseas shopping，Third and fourth tier 188bet online sports betting show huge consumption energy，Among them，The growth rate of overseas shopping in third-tier 188bet online sports betting in 16H1 was 108.65%First-tier 188bet online sports betting 77.57% growth rate。

Background of Population Migration: Escape from Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou and Population Return。In the context of the policy of population dispersion，Middle and low-end industry practitioners have gradually chosen or been chosen to leave first-tier 188bet online sports betting，Beijing、Shanghai’s resident migrant population dropped for the first time in the past 2 years，The growth rate of local migrant workers is significantly higher than that of migrant workers，More and more people choose to find employment in nearby low-tier 188bet online sports betting。Population return and income increase accelerate consumption upgrade in third- and fourth-tier 188bet online sports betting。

The impact of destocking and rising housing prices in third- and fourth-tier 188bet online sports betting on consumption may be greater than crowding out。The influx of investment demand and the return of people from first- and second-tier 188bet online sports betting to buy houses have promoted the increase in housing prices in third- and fourth-tier 188bet online sports betting。The increase in housing prices is for the population in third- and fourth-tier 188bet online sports betting who have completed the purchase of rigid housing，The perceived effect on wealth is improved，Remaining disposable income shows a relative improvement，Therefore，Relative increase in disposable income that can be used to meet upgraded consumption needs。

Geopolitics and the RMB exchange rate suppress overseas 188bet online sports betting.Outbound travel in 2017 may continue to be negatively affected by events such as the political environment and terrorist attacks，The depreciation of the RMB and other factors also jointly suppressed overseas consumer demand。In the future, more tourism consumption may be transferred to surrounding tourism，And superimpose the price reduction of more international brands in China，Consumption will return more to the mainland，Especially in lower-tier 188bet online sports betting，Offline shopping mall、Cross-border e-commerce、Taobao purchasing will become the main channel for residents to digest their upgrade needs。Among the top ten 188bet online sports betting that prefer to consume foreign goods during the New Year Festival，Only 3 seats in first and second tier 188bet online sports betting，And 7 seats are occupied by third-, fourth- and fifth-tier 188bet online sports betting。

Recommended industries and targets: Retail industry: focus on the optimization of shopping malls and supermarkets in third- and fourth-tier 188bet online sports betting，Recommended: Hubei Wushang、Jiajiayue, etc.。Education industry: Preschool education enrollment rates and K12 training rates in third- and fourth-tier 188bet online sports betting are increasing significantly，As for vocational education，With the return of more middle- and low-end industries and service industry people and migrant workers for employment，Increased demand for vocational skills training。Recommended: Oriental Fashion、Wei Chuang shares, etc.。Sports tourism industry: leisure travel catering to mass consumption、Healthy Travel、Family-child tour、Event operations will be the focus of the year，Recommended: Gudi Technology、China Youth Travel Service, etc.。

Risk reminder: Consumption upgrade in third- and fourth-tier 188bet online sports betting may not meet expectations

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1. Regarding 188bet online sports betting upgrade and switching between mainstream consumer groups

What is 188bet online sports betting upgrade？If you answer with products，Perhaps the two most typical Taobao hit categories in the past few months: lipstick and hair dryer。Take lipstick as an example，Not only YSL became the 2016 Internet celebrity champion with its star lipstick and No. 52 star color，Also Dior 999、Armani 500、Givenchy lambskin、TF clarinet and others compete for beauty。During the 2017 Taobao New Year Shopping Festival，Lipstick sales increased by 116% year-on-year，The growth rate further increased by 23 percentage points compared with the previous year。Another important category is hair dryers，Take the typical brand Dyson as an example，The price of about 3,000 yuan makes people feel incredible at the same time，But like lipstick, sales volume shows that 188bet online sports betting upgrade has officially begun。

Behind these two categories，The first thing we see is the intergenerational switching of mainstream consumer groups。The youngest born in the 1990s has grown up，Already called a middle-aged woman in 1988，The switch of mainstream consumer groups has basically been completed，Post-80s、Post-90s generation has officially become the main consumer force，This group pursues product quality more，Care more about lifestyle。A hair dryer costing 3,000 yuan may not be blowing hair anymore，But to blow out the personality of this group that is gradually becoming the mainstream。Take lipstick as an example，In the above data，Post-80s generation accounts for 30% of lipstick 188bet online sports betting，Post-90s generation accounts for 55.64%。So，Such consumption upgrades have become a common phenomenon in first- and second-tier 188bet online sports betting，More importantly, it is becoming an important development trend in third- and fourth-tier and lower-tier 188bet online sports betting and rural areas。Using the Double Eleven online shopping crowd to see the mainstream groups in this round of consumption upgrade，Easy to find。The main consumer status of people under 35 years old cannot be ignored，And the increase in the consumption power of this group，Especially critical for looking at the consumption upgrade in third- and fourth-tier 188bet online sports betting。

In terms of cross-border e-commerce 188bet online sports betting of overseas goods, which also represents 188bet online sports betting upgrade，According to Yangduan 2016H1 statistics，Third and fourth tier 188bet online sports betting show huge consumption energy，Be bolder in consumption。The growth rate of overseas shopping in third-tier 188bet online sports betting in 16H1 was 108.65%First-tier 188bet online sports betting 77.57% growth rate。And among the top 30 most popular overseas shopping 188bet online sports betting，Third and fourth tier 188bet online sports betting account for almost half of the seats。The rise of consumption upgrading in third- and fourth-tier 188bet online sports betting will become one of the most critical links affecting the consumption of goods and services in the next three years。

2. Regarding population mobility and 188bet online sports betting upgrade

High housing prices、High consumption、High intensity work、Congested traffic、mellow haze，It is a deep pain that never goes away in first-tier 188bet online sports betting。First-tier 188bet online sports betting are like besieged 188bet online sports betting，Carrying opportunities and dreams，But it is also full of bitterness and tears。If the previous generation still had many dreams for first-tier 188bet online sports betting，Those born in 1985、Those born in the 1990s seem to have become more rational。Due to the huge siphon effect of resources in first-tier 188bet online sports betting，High-end talents are still crowded in，But in the context of the policy of depopulation，Middle and low-end industry practitioners are gradually choosing or being chosen to leave。

Beijing、Shanghai’s resident migrant population dropped for the first time 188bet online sports betting past 2 years。The latest demographic data of various regions，Population growth in first-tier 188bet online sports betting reaches an inflection point，By the end of 2016，Beijing permanent population 2172.90,000 people (+2.4w)，Shanghai 2419.70,000 people (+4.4w)，Guangzhou1404.40,000 people (+54.3w)，Shenzhen1190.80,000 people (+52.9w)。Although there is still a small increase，ButFrom the data of permanent foreign population，Shanghai has been declining for 2 consecutive years，Beijing has seen a decrease in its resident foreign population for the first time in 18 years，Decrease by 15.10,000 people。The decline 188bet online sports betting number of migrants in Beijing and Shanghai is related to the urban population control policy (2020 urban permanent population target: Beijing 23 million，Shanghai 2500w），strict control、Depopulation may be the main reason for the short-term decline。

Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou don’t believe in tears，Practitioners in mid- to low-end industries and service industries are already on the way to being relieved。With the proposal of population red line in first-tier 188bet online sports betting and the transfer of industries in third-, fourth- and fifth-tier 188bet online sports betting，Increasing employment opportunities are also sinking。According to statistics bureau data，The growth rate of migrant workers has remained at 0 for 2 consecutive years.3%-0.4% interval，The growth rate of local migrant workers in 2016 was 3.44%。More and more migrant workers choose to find employment in nearby low-tier 188bet online sports betting。From the feedback in the human resources market，also further proves this phenomenon。Statistical display of Beijing Employment Service Center，Beijing’s 2016H1 service industry employment gap is as high as 17.60,000 people。The data released by the China Human Resources Market Information Monitoring Center also shows，2016Q1 Shanghai restaurant waiter、The ratio of job vacancies for kitchen workers to the number of job seekers is as high as 9:1。

Low-tier 188bet online sports betting will also see an increase in the number of middle- and high-income people.According to the Economist Intelligence Unit forecast，By 2030, the imbalance of local resources in China will be effectively alleviated，The transfer of industry and employment will bring about the growth of low-tier urban economies and residents’ income。The statistical analysis of 286 prefecture-level 188bet online sports betting shows，By 2030，Among the residents of prefecture-level 188bet online sports betting，The proportion of high income will increase significantly，There will be more and more wealthy 188bet online sports betting in prefecture-level 188bet online sports betting，The distribution of middle- and high-income people will continue to expand。

The proportion of online consumers in low-tier 188bet online sports betting is increasing significantly.Whether it is a policy change、Industrial structure adjustment，Or the transfer of personal goal pursuit，The return of population to lower-tier 188bet online sports betting has become a trend。And with the young population、More exposure to the return of people living in first- and second-tier 188bet online sports betting，Consumption upgrading in third- and fourth-tier 188bet online sports betting is also accelerating，The increase in online shopping crowd is also a good proof。According to Alibaba Double Eleven big data，The proportion of Double Eleven buyers in low-tier 188bet online sports betting is gradually increasing，And this trend is still strengthening。

3. Regarding changes in real estate trends and 188bet online sports betting upgrades

Usually we discuss the serious crowding-out effect of high housing prices on consumption，This argument is north of the current、Previous、The first-tier 188bet online sports betting represented by Shenzhen are almost 100% recognized。But if we switch the perspective to the third, fourth and fifth tier 188bet online sports betting and look at it，Perhaps it is more promotion than extrusion。

The state strictly controls the home purchase policy in first-tier 188bet online sports betting，In the context of encouraging destocking in third- and fourth-tier 188bet online sports betting。In 2016, the downward trend in the inventory depletion cycle of relying on third- and fourth-tier 188bet online sports betting was obvious，Since the beginning of 2017，Related statistics display，Transactions in first-tier 188bet online sports betting dropped significantly，Transactions in third- and fourth-tier 188bet online sports betting are rising。According to reporter’s investigation，The boom in the property market in first- and second-tier 188bet online sports betting last year triggered panic buying in third- and fourth-tier 188bet online sports betting，Investors’ funds and demands are pouring into some third- and fourth-tier 188bet online sports betting。

The influx of investment demand and the return of people from first- and second-tier 188bet online sports betting to buy houses have promoted the increase in housing prices in third- and fourth-tier 188bet online sports betting。AndThe increase in housing prices is for the population in third- and fourth-tier 188bet online sports betting who have completed the purchase of rigid housing，The perceived effect on wealth is improved。Especially when wages continue to rise，The population in third- and fourth-tier 188bet online sports betting feels less pressure on the cost of living than in first- and second-tier 188bet online sports betting，Under the perceived effect of wealth improvement，The remaining disposable income shows a relative improvement，Therefore，Relative increase in disposable income that can be used to meet upgraded consumption needs。

For the population of third- and fourth-tier 188bet online sports betting，Perhaps the rise in housing prices will not bring about obvious immediate complacency，In relative comparison，Especially at 80、After the post-90s generation becomes the mainstream consumer group，More time and energy、More poems and distant places may form a trend that promotes consumption。Take the purchase of male beauty products as an example，It is generally believed that men in first-tier 188bet online sports betting buy more beauty products，However, Alibaba’s New Year goods data shows that among the top ten provinces where men prefer beauty consumption, provinces with more distribution in lower-tier 188bet online sports betting rank higher，Henan、Hebei、Guangxi ranks first on the list、Third and fourth。

IV. Regarding geopolitics and the RMB exchange rate suppressing overseas 188bet online sports betting

The world is so big，Want to go out for a walk，However, IS 188bet online sports betting West has launched successive terrorist attacks in Europe，Cross-strait relations 188bet online sports betting East have caused a decrease in willingness to travel to Taiwan、Leakage concerns at Japan's Fukushima nuclear power plant、South Korea’s THAAD ignites national sentiment，The growth of outbound tourism may not be optimistic，The data shows the Spring Festival holiday and short weekend holidays，More tourism 188bet online sports betting demand may be transferred to surrounding tourism。Number of outbound tourists in 20161.2.2 billion people，4 year-on-year increase.3%，The growth rate dropped by 5 compared with 2015.5 percentage points。National 188bet online sports betting Administration estimates，Number of outbound tourists in 20171.2.7 billion people，+4%YOY，The number of domestic tourists will reach 48.800 million visitors，+10%YOY。

Changes in geopolitical factors will suppress the growth of overseas 188bet online sports betting in a relatively long period，This means that the demand for 188bet online sports betting upgrades that has been developed will be realized within the country。Also，The depreciation of the RMB has reduced the discount for overseas 188bet online sports betting，Many international brands officially launched price reduction measures in China in 2016, which further caused the 188bet online sports betting of international brands to return。Luxury brand Chanel is among those joining this price-cutting trend、Prada、Gucci、Burberry，Also includes Japanese mid-range brand Muji。When consumption returns to China，Especially in lower-tier 188bet online sports betting，Offline shopping mall、Cross-border e-commerce、Taobao purchasing will become the main channel for residents to digest their upgrade needs。

2017 Ali New Year Festival data display，Consumption preference for foreign New Year goods in low-tier 188bet online sports betting and rural areas has increased significantly，Especially in the maternal and infant categories that represent consumption upgrades，Rural consumers’ consumption of overseas maternal and infant products accounts for 50% of the total consumption of foreign goods.23% (the proportion of urban consumers during the same period was only 25.69%）。Also，City data also shows the consumption potential of third-, fourth- and fifth-tier 188bet online sports betting。Among the top ten 188bet online sports betting that prefer foreign goods consumption，Including first-tier 188bet online sports betting in Beijing、Shanghai，Shenyang in the second-tier city，Kunming, a third-tier city、Harbin、Urumqi，And Fushun in the fourth and fifth tier 188bet online sports betting、Karamay、Bayingol Mongolian Autonomous Prefecture、Shihezi。This data reflects the quality of goods in low-tier 188bet online sports betting、Brand、The requirements for origin are gradually increasing。

5. Recommended sectors: retail, education, sports, 188bet online sports betting

Go to the investment perspective，We believe that the consumption upgrade in third-, fourth- and fifth-tier 188bet online sports betting will become one of the most noteworthy themes and directions in the large consumer industry in 2017，And it is expected to be reflected in the financial statements of relevant industries and companies within the year，Effectively promote performance improvement。

First，It is the retail industry。In the previous article, we have discussed a lot of data and trends about consumption upgrade in third- and fourth-tier 188bet online sports betting，Optimization of shopping malls and supermarkets in third- and fourth-tier 188bet online sports betting，So that some consumption upgrade needs will be better met in offline business formats。Recommended attention:

■Regional Department Store: Ewu Shang (Top1)、Tiffany Shopping Mall、Ginza Shares、Chongqing Department Store、Hefei Department Store、Maoye Business；

■Chain retail: Jiajiayue (Top1)、Honghui Fruits and Vegetables、Yonghui Supermarket、Suning Cloud Business；

Secondly，For the education industry。Currently，The consumption of maternal and infant products in third- and fourth-tier 188bet online sports betting has shown an obvious upgrading trend。The area that benefits most from children’s consumption upgrade is education，The understanding that we cannot lose at the starting line is deeply rooted in the national mind。The preschool education enrollment rate in third- and fourth-tier 188bet online sports betting is increasing significantly，And the K12 after-school tutoring participation rate is gradually moving closer to first- and second-tier 188bet online sports betting from 15%-20%，The brand awareness of the institution is constantly improving and is gradually implemented in third- and fourth-tier 188bet online sports betting through models such as dual-teacher classrooms。Also，Vocational education，With the return of more middle- and low-end industries and service industry people and migrant workers for employment，Increased demand for vocational skills training。Recommended attention:

■Vocational Education: Oriental Fashion (Top1)、Century Dingli、Kaiyuan Instrument；

■Preschool&K12: Weichuang Shares (Top1)、New Nanyang、Shengtong Shares、Qinshang Optoelectronics；

Third，For the sports and tourism industry。The popularity of sports consumption and the development of habits are increasingly becoming a trend，It has become the consensus of local governments that the hosting of sports events will promote consumption and development in third- and fourth-tier 188bet online sports betting，Companies with event operation capabilities will tap into the consumer demand of more 188bet online sports betting and people in sports consumption trends。As for the tourism sector，Political environmental factors have caused differentiation in surrounding tourist destinations，Surrounding travel has become a trend in destinations for short vacations during the year。Especially for people in third- and fourth-tier 188bet online sports betting，Leisure travel catering to mass consumption、Healthy Travel、Family-child travel will be a hot topic this year。Recommended attention:

■Sports 188bet online sports betting: Gudi Technology (Top1)、China Youth Travel Service、Boutique Hotel、China International Travel Service、Huangshan 188bet online sports betting

Risk reminder: Consumption upgrade in third- and fourth-tier 188bet online sports betting may not meet expectations

Note: The classification and selection of 188bet online sports betting involved in the chart in this article refer to the urban development curve released by Jones Lang LaSalle in 2015。

First-tier 188bet online sports betting: Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen;

Second-tier city: Chengdu、Chongqing、Hangzhou、Nanjing、Shenyang、Suzhou、Tianjin、Wuhan、Xi’an、Changsha、Dalian、Jinan、Ningbo、Qingdao、Wuxi、Xiamen、Zhengzhou；

188bet online sports bettingtier city: Changzhou、Dongguan、Foshan、Fuzhou、Guiyang、Harbin、Hefei、Hohhot、Kunming、Nanchang、Nanning、Shijiazhuang、Wenzhou、Haikou、Huzhou、Jiaxing、Jinhua、Lanzhou、Luoyang、Nantong、Quanzhou、Shaoxing、Taiyuan、Tangshan、Urumqi、Weifang、Xuzhou、Yantai、Zhongshan、Zhuhai、Huaian、Jilin、Mianyang、Weihai、Wuhu、Xiangyang、Xining、Yancheng、Yangzhou、Yichang、Yinchuan、Zibo、Baotou。

*Source of this article: Tianfeng Trading Company, original title: "Consumption upgrade in third- and fourth-tier 188bet online sports betting: phenomena, reasons and thoughts》

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