The performance forecasts of tourism industry companies that have been announced so far，In 2019, listed tourism companies experienced relatively obvious performance differentiation。Three companies with larger market capitalization are expected to increase their performance，Companies below the waist generally have declining performance，Some companies suffer losses。

Since 2018，The growth rate of domestic tourist numbers is slowing down。First half of 2019，The number of tourists in some listed scenic spots has declined。The new coronavirus epidemic is a serious blow to the development of the tourism industry，Share price fell、Closed for business，The profits of individual companies will also be severely damaged by rigid expenditures。

However，Discovered according to statistics，Most listed travel companies have relatively sufficient funds，Less pressure to pay labor costs，I believe we can survive this "cold winter" successfully。

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Among the 13 travel companies that announced performance forecasts，Only 3 tourism companies with relatively large market capitalization are profitable and growing。

Among them，China International Travel Service expects to achieve a net profit attributable to the parent company of 46 in 2019.5.4 billion yuan，YoY increase of 50.38%。Based on performance forecast，During the reporting period, the company continued to focus on its main tax-free 188bet app download business。At the same time，Benefit from increased demand for duty-free goods，The revenue and gross profit of major duty-free stores have increased to varying degrees。Also，Due to transfer of subsidiary equity，The company’s non-recurring profits and losses in 2019 increased significantly year-on-year。

Songcheng Performing Arts expects net profit attributable to parent company in 2019 to be RMB 12.8.7 billion yuan~14.1.6 billion yuan，YoY growth of about 0%-10%。Based on performance forecast，During the reporting period, the company launched diversified entertainment content，Optimize hardware environment，In the case where individual projects are adversely affected by the local market environment，The overall operating performance still achieved growth。

Also，There are 5 tourism companies whose net profits attributable to parent companies dropped year-on-year in 2019，The remaining 5 companies recorded losses in net profit attributable to the parent company。While the operating performance of small and medium-sized enterprises in the industry is under pressure，Special attention needs to be paid to the risk of impairment of goodwill and impairment of long-term equity investments。

Among them，Yunnan Tourism expects net profit attributable to parent company to be 90 million yuan in 2019~1.3.5 billion yuan，Decreased by 77% year-on-year.37%~84.92%。Based on performance forecast，Income decline of some subsidiaries of Yunnan Tourism，Performance decline，And the deviation is larger than expected，The company plans to make impairment provisions for the goodwill formed by business mergers in 2019。

Temperature International expects net profit loss attributable to parent company in 2019 to be 14.7.7 billion yuan~14.8.2 billion yuan，Net profit attributable to parent company for the same period in 2018 was 1.6.8 billion yuan。Based on performance 188bet online sports betting forecast，Tempower International’s financing was restricted during the reporting period，Tight liquidity，Causing the company’s travel business and air ticket agency business to encounter greater difficulties，Business loss occurred；At the same time，The company plans to make impairment provisions for some investments and assets that show signs of impairment，It also led to the company's overall performance is expected to drop significantly compared with the same period last year and result in losses。

The growth in the number of domestic tourists has slowed down, and tourism companies have closed due to the epidemic

In response to the new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic，Guilin Tourism、More than ten tourism industry companies including Huangshan Tourism have issued relevant measures，Attractions are temporarily closed，Travel agencies have suspended operating groups and "air tickets + hotel" travel products，And the group is suspended。

The stock prices of various listed companies in the tourism industry have also fallen to varying degrees since the outbreak。

It is worth mentioning，Since 2018，The growth of domestic tourist numbers has been slowing down，The epidemic is another blow to the tourism industry。

According to the National Bureau of Statistics，The number of domestic tourists in my country in 2018 was 55.3.9 billion people，Growth has slowed down 1.88 percentile。

Judging from the reception situation of listed scenic spots in the first half of 2019，Some scenic spots have seen a general slowdown in passenger flow growth，Even reduced situation。Among them，The number of tourists received in Mount Emei Scenic Area only increased by 0 year-on-year.06%，The number of tourists received by Guilin Scenic Area and Wuzhen Scenic Area decreased by 0 year-on-year respectively.21% and 0.8%。

Review of SARS: The impact is not limited to the first quarter

Review of the SARS epidemic in 2003，The number of domestic tourists dropped by 0 year-on-year that year.9%、Tourism revenue fell by 11% year-on-year.2%。

Among them，The operating income of listed companies Huangshan Tourism and Guilin Tourism decreased by 33% respectively.16% and 34.75%，Operating income fell by 77% year-on-year in the second quarter when the epidemic was severe.98% and 70.9%，After the epidemic was lifted, operating income in the third quarter dropped by 25% year-on-year respectively.19% and 34.51%。

Combining announcements from listed companies，Affected by the new coronavirus epidemic，Most scenic spots are temporarily closed，Have a direct impact on revenue in the first quarter of 2020。

Quarterly revenue distribution of listed travel companies in the past three years，Revenue in the first quarter continues to increase，However, the proportion of annual revenue is the lowest among the four quarters。

The revenue ratio of each quarter in 2017 is 19.56%、23.55%、30.94% and 25.95%，The revenue ratio of each quarter in 2018 is 19.77%、25.65% 、29.60% and 24.98%。

Revenue in the second and third quarters of 2019 declined compared to 2018，The revenue ratio is expected to continue to increase in the first quarter。The impact of the new coronavirus epidemic on tourism company revenue in 2020 may be more than 20%。

Rigid short-term expenditure: serious impact on individual company profits，Financial pressure is generally small

Close at attraction、In case of loss of income，As a labor-intensive industry, tourism companies still need to pay regular short-term rigid expenses such as employee salaries，Financial pressure deserves attention。

Calculated based on 2018 data，The labor cost of 23 listed travel companies is 89.7.4 billion yuan，Net profit attributable to parent company during the same period was 74.188bet app 8.8 billion yuan，The labor cost is about 1% of the net profit.2 times。means，If the epidemic affects a quarter，The rigid cash expenditure corresponds to more than 3 and a half months of profits。

The profits of some companies are much more severely affected，For example, one month’s labor cost of UX Travel corresponds to the company’s two years’ profit，The labor costs of Qujiang Cultural Tourism and Zhangjiajie in one quarter correspond to the company’s profits of more than a year。

From the financial situation，Listed travel companies generally do not have much pressure to pay labor costs in the short term。The third quarterly report of 2019 shows，Total monetary funds of listed tourism companies 257.3.1 billion yuan，On average, it is enough to cover labor costs for more than two and a half years。

in individual companies，Guilin Tourism and CITS United, which have relatively high financial pressure, can also support 5 months and 7 months of labor costs respectively。

Current epidemic，The stock price is cold，Uxin Travel launches buyback plan，Tibet Tourism and Caesars Travel are currently in the buyback plan。Travel companies generally have less cash flow pressure，I believe that most listed companies in the tourism industry can successfully survive this crisis。

*Source of this article: WeChat public account "Bread Finance”（mianbaocaijing），Author: Bread Finance, original title: "Tourism industry: performance differentiation is significant，The leading company has sufficient funds and strong ability to resist risks》.