February 29, which only happens once every four years，Many people are busy checking in on the Internet，Looking forward to more surprises in the next four years。But for the employees of Baicheng Travel Network，Maybe this day will be given more special meaning。

February 29，A "Notice on the Company's Decision to Close the Company and Start Liquidation Preparations" from Baicheng Travel Network has been circulated in the travel industry，188bet app download

In the aftermath，Baicheng requires employees to complete the return of company property and other matters and procedures before 16:00 on March 9。And be prepared to find your own way out in advance。

If calculated according to the special cycle of four years，Four years ago, Baicheng was a time of great glory，Not only won the "Forbidden Cup" collective award，Rated as “Top 10 Online Travel Agents” by industry media、"Golden Visa Service Provider"，Also won the "High-tech Enterprise" certificate。

Go back a little further，Baicheng also received Series B financing led by Alibaba，And successfully listed on the New Third Board。

The impact of the epidemic on the tourism industry is self-evident，But for Baicheng Travel Network with Ali’s blessing，Its sudden closure is somewhat surprising。

But judging from the past financial data of Baicheng Travel Network，This travel platform with the Alibaba halo has been losing money for many years，2015，Net 188bet online sports betting loss 3935.190,000 yuan；Net loss in 2016 4510.810,000 yuan；2017，Net loss 2795.450,000 yuan；Net loss in the first half of 2018 1285.640,000 yuan。

Although the epidemic is not the core cause，But it exacerbated Baicheng’s downfall to a certain extent。

According to the forecast of the analysis agency，The number of people traveling during the Spring Festival in 2020 will exceed 4.500 million，8% increase compared to the Spring Festival in 2019，A market size of approximately 555 billion yuan。

But with the outbreak of the epidemic，These expected revenue figures have come to nothing。

Although there is no specific data to show the extent of the impact of this epidemic on the tourism industry，But you can still get a glimpse from some other angles。

First of all, the number of travelers dropped，According to data from the Ministry of Transportation，During the Golden Week of Spring Festival this year，The number of travelers nationwide is only 1.5.2 billion people，Compared to last year’s 4.2.1 billion people，Big drop 63.9%。

The second is the surge in chargebacks on travel platforms，Data display from Ctrip，As of January 30，The platform has received millions of requests for refunds，Nearly 10 times higher than daily growth。The peak number of cancellations and changes is on New Year’s Eve，Millions of requests for refunds and changes come to the platform。

Such a huge revenue impact，Making it difficult for every upstream and downstream enterprise in the tourism industry to survive alone，Baicheng, which has been unable to escape the shadow of losses for many years, is no exception。

Review of the tourism industry in 2003，Due to the impact of the SARS epidemic，The flow of domestic outbound tourists fell by 13% year-on-year，The overall tourism industry revenue growth rate decreased by 28%。

But it is worth noting，Overall statistics of tourism industry in 2003，A large part of the contribution occurred in the second half of the year after the epidemic ended，People’s retaliatory consumption psychology towards tourism products is stimulated，enabling a strong rebound in the tourism industry。

The growth rate of tourist flow at that time showed a rapid growth trend，And reach the peak in the middle of the following year，Even in the following ten years，There is no strong growth high point。

But back to this new coronavirus epidemic，I’m afraid it will be difficult to reproduce the strong rebound momentum after the shadow of SARS was eliminated。

Vice President of Beijing Tourism Society、Zhang Hui, Dean of the Modern Tourism Development Research Institute of Beijing Jiaotong University, said in an interview with the media，Even if the tourism industry rebounds，The intensity cannot be compared with the rebound after SARS in 2003。

Zhang Hui thinks: "Currently，Chinese households have a high debt ratio，The demand for loan repayment is rigid，And tourism consumption is elastic，You must be compressed in the face of liabilities”。

Zhang Hui’s further prediction is: “There will be a lot of people traveling，But it costs less，Per capita tourism consumption will drop significantly；There may be many people participating in the ‘one-day tour’，But the number of accommodation tourists will drop significantly。Therefore，After the epidemic is over，The tourism industry will not rebound strongly，Because the rebound is not about the number of people，But the benefits of tourism economy。”

And from some data levels，It can indeed prove that what Dean Zhang Hui said is true。

Back in 2018，Chen Yanbin, deputy dean of the School of Economics at Renmin University of 188bet app China, said at the China Macroeconomic Forum: "Calculated based on household debt/household disposable income，China’s household sector leverage ratio is as high as 110.9%，Has surpassed the United States。”

In 2003, when SARS occurred，Because the domestic housing market has not yet shown an upward trend，Most residents do not need to bear excessive debt when buying a house，Making the overall household debt ratio in a lower state。

But in the past 10 years，The consumption structure of residents has undergone tremendous changes，Especially when it comes to consumption such as buying a house or a car，More families are burdened with excessive leverage。

According to Analysys data cited by the 2019 Forward-looking Industry Research Institute，Among the online travel users in my country，The people born in the 80s and 90s account for the absolute majority，The post-80s generation accounts for 43%，Post-90s accounted for 18.8%。

And the per capita debt of these main tourist groups，Not optimistic either，In 2019, Suning Financial Research Institute selected 4 million loan applicants born between 1980 and 1999 from Suning Financial as analysis samples，Compare the real debt situation of the post-80s and post-90s generations from multiple credit data dimensions。

Conclusion display based on analysis of data，The average debt amount per person born after 80 reaches 21.980,000 yuan，The average debt amount per person born in the 1990s is 10.450,000 yuan。

In terms of average monthly repayment amount，The monthly loan repayment amount for those born in the 1980s is 0.630,000 yuan，The monthly loan repayment amount for those born in the 1990s is 0.280,000 yuan。

In contrast to the rising debt ratio of residents，It is the decline in residents’ savings rate in recent years，The household savings 188bet app rate in 2003 was still 56.8%，It has dropped to about 45% in recent years。

In addition, the outbreak of the epidemic coincides with the Spring Festival holiday，The wave of concentrated consumption a year ago has reduced households’ disposable income，Affected by the shutdown of production，Expected revenue also shows a short-term decline。

Many factors combined，It is indeed difficult for the outside world to have too many expectations for the rebound of the tourism industry after the epidemic。

Since entering the 21st century，After some major social emergencies are over，There will be a small peak in the tourism industry，For example, SARS in 2003，2008 Wenchuan Earthquake。

Experienced the battle of life and death，More people are lamenting the impermanence of life，The thought of carpe diem is born，But after a short carnival，The people and the market will gradually return to reason。

When the rigidity of life is difficult to remove，You must unload some elastic poetry and distance。

When travelers give up their thoughts of traveling，So for travel platforms，Cash flow difficulties are already on the table。

The fall of Baicheng Travel Network，Not good news for more tourism practitioners who are still suffering from pain，But the worse news is，Baicheng’s withdrawal may be just the beginning。

*Source of this article: WeChat public account "Spiral Laboratory" (ID: spiral_lab)，Author: AKA Du Chao, original title：《Behind the bankruptcy of Baicheng, the recovery of the tourism industry is more difficult than that of SARS》.