After the epidemic，Why large companies may have a harder time living than small businesses？

Will people’s consumption views change after the epidemic?、Will we usher in the so-called low-desire society？

Young people who are becoming more and more homebound，Why spend a lot of money on something，Do they still have the desire to buy a house in the future？

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There are all kinds of questions，Essentially, it is related to changes in society’s consumption concepts。Changes in consumption concepts，It is an extremely complicated and slow process。People’s understanding of consumption phenomenon，I often suffer from the lack of a handhold，Unable to see through the complicated phenomena，Understand its essence。

Japanese consumer researcher Mr. Miura Noboru based on his thirty years of research experience，Based on the development history of Japanese society and the changes brought about by major social events，Proposed four theories of consumer society，The representative work is the book "The Fourth Era of Consumption"。

Once this book is released，has attracted widespread attention，And it has also been sought after by researchers in countries other than Japan。Although Mr. Miura Zhan made some reserved claims in the book，“Not every country will go through these four stages，Without a doubt，Divide Japan’s consumer society into four stages，It’s just a hypothesis。”However, the theory of the fourth consumption era has still become one of the basic theoretical frameworks for studying consumption issues，Repeatedly cited by many research analysts。

A practical view for large and medium-sized cities in China，Research on the third consumption era and the fourth consumption era，And the transformation relationship between the two is more practical。The wives in the hit TV series "Thirty Only" pursue big names、Display identity and despise each other，You are in the third era of consumption without knowing it。Simply put，Basic characteristics of the third era of consumption，It is the pursuit of a refined and refined lifestyle。For example, buying fashion，Wearing fashion is not only to meet your own needs，You also need to gain approval and appreciation from others。

And the fourth era of consumption，From consumption sophistication 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino to de-branding，More pursuit of simplicity、Shared lifestyle。Ultimately hope to achieve harmonious relationships between people，People can truly find spiritual satisfaction and happiness from material consumption。

June this year，Huxiu and Qicheng Capital (Qicheng Capital is a US dollar growth fund focusing on the new generation of retail consumption)，Held a live dialogue event on "Apocalypse of the Fourth Consumption Era"，Bilibili as an exclusive cooperation platform。In this 1 and a half hour live event，Mr. Noboru Miura elaborated on the characteristics and consumption trends of the four consumption eras，In conjunction with his upcoming new book，The two social phenomena of universal significance, single people and aging society, are also analyzed，Finally answered the questions from Huxiu host and users。

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1 What impact will the new crown epidemic have on consumption concepts?

2 What are young people thinking about when shopping?

3 In the fourth era of consumption, will young people still buy houses?

4 The fourth era of consumption，What are the changes in marriage and divorce rates？

5 Singles and Aging Society，What changes will occur in the consumption structure？

6 Between different consumption eras，Is it an irreversible progressive relationship？

7  Why large companies will have more difficulties than small companies in the fourth consumption era？

The following are questions and answers, Enjoy——

Question 1: What impact will the new coronavirus epidemic have on consumption concepts？

Miura Exhibition:Japan has entered the third consumption era and the fourth consumption era，Major macroeconomic and social events have occurred。“The switching point in every consumption era is the same，We have all experienced such a series of disasters，Or man-made，Or a natural disaster。”Natural and social disasters such as the major earthquakes in Japan in 1995 and 2001，Is an important external factor for Japanese society to enter the fourth consumer society。

Therefore，Many people will also care，What impact will the new coronavirus pneumonia that has spread around the world have on our consumption。Mr. Miura Noboru thinks: Novel coronavirus pneumonia，It may allow Japan to completely complete the transfer and enter the fourth era of consumption，Maybe this is an opportunity，It will accelerate Japan’s entry into the fourth era of consumption。Due to the impact of the epidemic，People will feel healthy、Hygiene、Safety、Safety factors become more important。

From the perspective of urban structure，The entire city center begins to shift，Because in the past 15 years or 20 years，The permanent population in Tokyo as a whole and in the urban centers of Japan’s big cities is overly dense，But because of the 188bet online sports betting impact of coronavirus，People are beginning to realize，It may be more dangerous in the center of the city。Many people may prefer to live in suburban areas，Buy a house in the suburbs。And now these bustling commercial streets and supporting facilities in big cities，Popularity will decrease。Compared to going to a place like this，Everyone is more willing to go to family communities、Or a small shop next to a self-employed community。

Tiger Sniff Interpretation:Same trend，In fact, China’s first and second tier cities are also beginning to appear。In recent years，Community commerce has become a new commercial infrastructure that many cities are vigorously developing，Many companies are also investing。Compared with community business and core business district，It is also a decentralized way of life。

Question 2: What are young people thinking about when shopping?

Miura Exhibition:In the late stage of the third consumer society，Modern consumers, especially young people，Starting to show multiple selves，That is, having "the same self as everyone" at the same time，and “differentiated self”。This actually also brings challenges to merchants。

On the one hand，Lots of personalization、Niche demand explodes，and gradually satisfied。But on the other hand，This kind of niche，Does not mean isolation of personality。What young people think now，As long as you can connect with others，Create a common circle，Then everything else doesn’t matter。

In other words，The final mature form of consumption，It is a process of transforming consumption into self-enrichment。And the rise of the fourth consumer society，Providing solutions to many contradictions arising in the third consumption，Too personal compared to one、Isolated society，We need to build a society where people can naturally connect with each other。

Tiger Sniff Interpretation:On the double self of consumption，In fact, it is also reflected in contemporary Chinese consumers。The kind that forms new consumer groups in order to form a common circle，The most typical one is the fan economy。They not only support their idols with their wallets，At the same time, they also have close or loose community attributes。For companies and brands，Be able to have your own loyal fans，It is also the foundation for the brand’s longevity。

Question 3: In the fourth era of consumption, do young people still buy houses?

Miura Exhibition:Japanese young people may not want to buy a house anymore，The proportion of rentals will be more。Tokyo house prices，Also because of the impact of this epidemic，After there was a price increase before the epidemic，The fall is also relatively large。

Although some young people in Japan still buy houses，But I can buy second-hand houses。so far，Perhaps people think 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino that people who buy second-hand houses do so because they have no money，That’s why I made this choice。But now it may become an option that everyone actively chooses，Young people think second-hand houses are more valuable，Buy a second-hand house and then renovate it。

New apartment housing in Tokyo, Japan，Maybe it’s not as popular as before。Maybe people don’t want to live in the suburbs yet，Because I have to take the train to work for more than an hour every day，But now this kind of small house in the suburbs，That is, Japan’s one-family house may be valued again，After buying it, renovate and remodel it。So in terms of the values ​​of living and buying a house，Take the epidemic as a turning point，We will still see some big changes。

Question 4: The Fourth Era of Consumption，What are the changes in marriage and divorce rates？

Miura Exhibition:In Japan，A border since 1985。After 1985，The divorce rate is gradually increasing，The marriage rate among young people is beginning to decrease。This may be related to the fourth consumer era itself，There is no direct relationship。But just mentioned (the fourth era of consumption) people are more willing to pursue personal happiness，What is the pursuit of personal happiness？The pursuit of personal happiness means not enduring things that you don’t want to bear，So the marriage rate will start to decrease，Or the divorce rate is starting to increase。

Huxiu Interpretation: This issue may have more practical significance in China。After the epidemic，The divorce rate in many places, especially first-tier cities, has begun to rise，There are even long lines of divorced people at the marriage registration office。In addition, according to statistics from the Ministry of Civil Affairs，China’s divorce rate has increased for 15 consecutive years since 2003。The rising divorce rate is a complex social phenomenon。But there is no doubt that，This is related to the improvement of women’s social status，More economic independence，Unwilling to endure a boring marriage，No longer having to “live together” with someone you don’t love。

Question 5: Singles and Aging Society，What changes will occur in the consumption structure？

Miura Exhibition:With the increase in the single population，The core change in consumer trends is the “Care” mentality。

Some basic trends are: 1. Care and maintenance begin to make people younger；2  The consumption habits of consumers when they are young will not change as they grow older；3 Increase in Care consumption，In principle, it is dominated by high-income consumer groups。Data display，High-income people take physical education courses、Investment in sports facilities is twice the average。Mr. Miura Zhan calls it “preventive care”。And low- and middle-income people spend 85% more on medical care than the 188bet app average，Called “healing care”。

In addition，Because there are more and more single people，Looking at Japan’s trends，People will take care of themselves while doing so，will also turn to seeking to form mutually caring relationships with people outside of the family，"Sharing has become a necessity"。Shared housing has appeared in Japan，Let’s cook together、Life，Communicate with each other。

Question 6: From the third consumption era to the fourth consumption era，Is it an irreversible process？Also，Many young people in China，Living in a big city like Shanghai，May be moving from the third consumption era to the fourth consumption era。And TA’s hometown，Maybe still in the second era of consumption。This affects personal consumption outlook and psychology，Whether there will be a certain tearing feeling？

Miura Exhibition:Division of four consumption eras，It does not mean that the four consumer societies are completely in a ladder-like progressive relationship，There may be alternation and coexistence。But on the other hand，From the situation in Japan，From the third consumption era to the fourth consumption era，Another necessity。

There are two fundamental driving reasons behind the emergence of the fourth consumer society，It’s about aging and environmental issues。

Facing environmental issues，People need better、More environmentally friendly，Or a more circular way of consuming life，And facing aging，Need a better community，Or sharing and other communication between people。Of course this is a question，Actually, it didn’t happen immediately in Japan，Since the 1970s，Problems of aging and environmental protection have already begun to appear，People have begun to pay more attention to it。But it also took about 20 to 30 years，By just mentioning this disaster，There are also some policy changes，Gradually emerged from the water。

So we can estimate，China may face the same problem now and in the future，Growing、Problems of declining birthrate and environmental protection。In that case，I think so too，Although the fourth consumption is not particularly obvious now，But with the development and changes of the times，People who may gradually develop the fourth consumption lifestyle habit，May gradually become a majority。

Questions about young people。Actually in Japan，Same problem，Experienced 60 years ago。These young people who grew up in rural areas or local cities，Going to the city to study or work，When they arrive in the city，It will indeed be greatly affected or impacted，This was also in Japan in the 1970s，There has been a lot of rising crime rates and student movements，One of the reasons why it appears。

Question 7: Why is it more difficult for large companies to cope with the fourth consumer era than small businesses？

Miura Exhibition:Let me talk about it first，Why big companies cannot deal with the fourth consumption itself，Because the logic of growth of large enterprises is to turn the flywheel of scale effect，is a mass production、Model of mass consumption。But I just mentioned the fourth consumption，People may pursue things more than the things themselves，Maybe we should pursue services，Or some personalized needs。That is, the service industry。Service industry except for some specific companies，Most companies are small and medium-sized enterprises。For example, sports gym，Beauty and Hairdressing，There are also a series of service industries related to health。Compared to mass production、Consumption in large quantities、In terms of the industry of selling things，It is difficult for such small and medium-sized enterprises to turn the flywheel of scale effect，But they can provide more targeted services and needs。

Japanese large companies can only go through overseas markets，To expand its size，In Japan，It is difficult for further development。Japan has a "Kingdanren"，It is an alliance of large Japanese companies。Companies within this organization，The stock price has basically not increased in 20 years。Often some small and medium-sized enterprises，Started to grow year by year。So it is difficult for large companies to find new growth points in such a saturated era。

In response to the above discussion，Co-organizer Qicheng Capital also gave its own suggestions:

“Although it is difficult to say whether the changes in large-scale consumption are caused by supply creating demand or demand leading supply，But one thing is for sure，Population、Age structure、Social structural changes such as urbanization rate are the major premise that affects consumption changes，China is experiencing similar variables to Japan。Therefore, the Japanese case is useful in understanding the life cycle of enterprises in the consumer industry，Provides a reference for business growth methods，But it also provides valuable lessons。Some companies have seized the dividends of changes，Some companies only remain in the memory of history。”

"Without a doubt，What is different from Japan’s early years，The current Chinese consumer market is in a technological stage、Society、The superimposed effect of multiple intergenerational changes such as the economy，Facing more variables。How to seize the structural dividends in this huge change，How to find suitable methods and tools to bridge the gap of change，has always been the core proposition of our Qicheng Capital focus。”

(The content of this article is the independent opinion of the author，Does not represent favoritism。）

*Source of this article: WeChat public “Huxiu APP” (ID: huxiu_com)，Author: Fang Yu, original title：《Single、Aging、High divorce、Low Desire......Dividends from consumption changes》.