What can 500 days change?

Starting from the suspension of nationwide group tours on January 26, 2020，Until June 13 this year，The cultural tourism industry has experienced a "unique" 500 days，Mutation、frozen、Unknown、Unfreeze......Travel Enterprise、Destination from dazed to uncertain、Falling，Start upward，Towards recovery。

Many travel companies were “obliterated” during the epidemic，There are also travel companies that are becoming more resilient，The survival and development model of the destination，Also changing，And the introduction and implementation of new policies，Changes in key “cells” of these industries，will further affect the trend of the tourism market、Reshaping the industry landscape，The cultural tourism industry has a new frontier、Unknown，A future full of expectations。

Special period，Zhihui launches a special plan "500 Days of Ups and Downs in the Cultural Tourism Industry"，Looking back at the ups and downs of the cultural tourism industry over the past 500 days，Hope to be in those important events、Key details in progress，Peering into the cultural tourism industry’s path forward in the next “500 days”。

In the second article, we focus on cross-border travel that is still in the cold winter period.

The first article "500 days of ups and downs in the cultural tourism industry: after the freeze，Travel companies have different fates，Industry transformation and change》，We have paid attention to the tourism companies in the domestic cultural tourism industry in the past 500 days、The appearance of all beings in the industry，At the same time，What ups and downs has the international tourism market, that is, cross-border tourism, experienced?？

At the end of February last year，Cao Jian, then general manager of Zhongxin Tourism, mentioned in the exclusive interview with Zhihui，After the epidemic is over，There will be a concentrated outbreak of travel demand，Will be accompanied by travel safety、Environmental protection、Health、Increased demand for ecological and other concepts，It will pose a big challenge to the operator’s detailed service capabilities，This will accelerate industry metabolism，Further enhance industry concentration。

Perhaps what everyone didn’t expect is，15 and a half months later，At the end of 500 days of ups and downs in the cultural tourism industry，Caesar Travel、Uoxin Travel "officially announces" planned merger，Presenting another form of increasing industry concentration。

This is the 500 days we observe cross-border travel (or outbound travel)，Provides a more distinctive event or entrance，The helplessness behind the choice of enterprises、Self-help，Changes in the market structure，Cross-border travel is blocked by ice, etc.，All appear in it。

500 days，Recurring epidemics、Destiny of Travel Enterprises、The efforts between countries and regions are intertwined，The ice of cross-border travel has not yet melted，How many more 500 days do we have to wait？

188bet sports betting app download

（2020.01.26~2020.08.14）

The outbreak of the foreign epidemic came relatively late, but it was also very fast.

End of February last year，Tokyo Disney、188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino Universal Studios Osaka is temporarily closed for half a month due to the epidemic，This is the prelude to the plight and even crisis of international travel companies under the epidemic。

OYO, which once deeply disturbed the hotel market, reported news in March last year，Due to the impact of the epidemic，It will lay off about 5,000 people worldwide，Among them, China has the largest layoffs，About 50% of total employees in China，Nearly 3000。The epidemic in China was relatively the most serious at that time，Personnel mobility is almost stopped，Hotel occupancy rate has declined seriously。

And more international giants have also felt the chill brought by the epidemic。At that time，Marriott Hotels plans to lay off thousands of employees，And close some hotels；Hilton plans to close most of its hotels in the United States，Also extracted 17.$500 million standby credit，Funds used to respond to the epidemic。

Liquidity is one of the biggest crises，Attrition、Close stores and reduce costs、Raising funds for “grain harvesting”，Become a last resort:

Airbnb seeks to extend $1 billion debt financing facility;

2,000 Marriott Hotels worldwide have closed，Global hotel business declines 85%-90%，About 100,000 employees closed；

Australian travel giant Flight Center plans to close 800 stores;

Disney implements unpaid leave for all U.S. business unit employees，And consider paying salaries to more than 100,000 employees，This can save approximately US$500 million per month。

......

What’s worse，Bankruptcy crisis spreads around the world，Travel agency、Accommodation、Travel (Cruise、Aviation、Car rental)、Performing arts, etc.，Everyone is affected。

Due to the impact of the epidemic，Tour group canceled，China Tour Co., Ltd. in Hamburg, Germany applied to the local court for bankruptcy protection on February 21 last year。The company has been operating in Germany for more than 20 years，is a professional Chinese travel agent in Germany and a Chinese inbound travel company in Germany。

Early March last year，Japan’s Kobe Luminous Cruise Line announces filing for bankruptcy，This is the first cruise company to declare bankruptcy since the outbreak。Previously，The cruise line was hit by the earthquake、The impact of typhoons and fuel prices，The epidemic has accelerated its departure。

March 5 last year，Flybe, Europe’s largest independent regional airline, declares bankruptcy，All flights suspended，UK business ceased trading；

Around March last year，Japan’s 64-year-old long-established hotel “Fujimiso”，Due to the sharp decline in Chinese tourists among mainstream residents，Tour groups are being canceled one after another，Plus high costs，Reluctantly declared bankruptcy。

May last year，U.S. car rental giant Hertz International Holdings files for bankruptcy protection。As of the end of 2019，Hertz’s total debt is nearly $19 billion，Has about 3.80,000 employees，Is one of the large companies hardest hit by the epidemic。The reason why Hertz filed for bankruptcy，The main reason is the failure to reach a consensus on suspending repayments with major lenders。March last year，To improve financial difficulties，The company has furloughed 10,000 car drivers，Also cut executive compensation。

Also in May last year，Latin America’s largest airline、The second largest airline has filed for bankruptcy protection；

May last year，TUI Group, Europe’s largest travel company, announced，The group suffered serious losses，Plan to lay off 8,000 people worldwide，More than 10% of its total employees。It has encountered the biggest crisis in its 52 years of existence；

Cirque du Soleil, which 188bet app download has been established for 36 years, also encountered the biggest crisis，It announced its application for bankruptcy protection at the end of June last year，Earlier March，It has announced 95 layoffs，Only the core support team remains；

August 5 last year，Virgin Atlantic files for bankruptcy protection；August 7，British Airways announces tens of thousands of job cuts......

Incomplete statistics，According to public information，April to early August last year，Global travel companies involved in bankruptcy、The number of layoffs exceeds 20 companies，About 15 airlines among them，is the "hardest hit area"，Passengers、Revenue plummets，The funding crisis intensifies or breaks out。

IATA、Some airlines have predicted that，Global air passenger demand will not return to pre-pandemic levels until 2024。

Aviation as a cross-region、The absolute beacon for cross-border and other long-distance travel situations，What does this prediction mean，Self-evident。

The cause of the crisis，In addition to the objective personnel mobility freeze，The "subjective" factors of the enterprise are also inevitable，For example, the long-standing shortcomings of the business model or revenue model，Rapidly expanded and fermented under the epidemic、High risk。

Take Cirque du Soleil as an example，It is a unique existence in the field of performing arts，Already have its own barriers in the industry，But it is also one of the representatives of rapid "collapse"，Why？

1、Cirque du Soleil is an asset-heavy model，Preliminary creation of performing arts programs、Equipment rental and actors are superimposed into gravity investment，Frequent performances in the program + a large amount of technology investment + a large number of actors performing，Creative creation、Technology、Three major human costs top the list，But the return on investment is not high，This creates a bit of a "riding on a tiger" situation，To maintain competitiveness and barriers，These three major cost investments can basically remain the same、Go higher，Difficult to lower，Cirque du Soleil once borrowed money but wants to increase investment，That’s what it means；

2、There is another important detail，Cirque du Soleil versus creativity、Technology、The emphasis and high dependence on talents，Making the integration or modularization of new programs less feasible，Weaken the marginal effect，It is difficult to bring higher returns and efficiency improvements；

3、Depend on offline，Online revenue breakthrough is not enough。Cirque du Soleil’s derivatives gains are moving higher，But there has been no substantial breakthrough yet，A single revenue model that also relies on tickets。The epidemic has caused the suspension of offline performances，The operational crisis is immediately revealed。

The choice and crisis of TUI, Europe’s largest travel group，There are also similarities。

TUI has been seeking to increase its business barriers in recent years，Mainly reflected in the penetration of business into all aspects of tourism services，Providing end-to-end full chain services，Includes hotels、Control of upstream resources such as air tickets and cruises，Promote self-operated hotels and resorts for tourists、Cruise Service，And strengthen the expansion of downstream distribution channels，Increase customer acquisition for stores、Penetration of marketing, etc.。

Simply put，Resource、The products are complete、Strong enough，Service is good enough、Enough，To the supply chain、The consumer has strong control capabilities，It will definitely occupy a place in the tourism 188bet app download consumer market，And if the upstream and downstream are done well, it can also form a better benign closed-loop effect，Strong ability to resist market risks，But this kind of asset-heavy investment is one of the huge risks。

When the epidemic causes product supply disruption、Personnel mobility and consumption are stagnant，TUI’s advantage becomes a disadvantage，Income break、High costs，Crisis intensifies。

The real problem is，The impact of the epidemic、Lessons and Thoughts，Will prompt Cirque du Soleil、Tui-like companies seek to “improve” business models，Such as online consumption trends also bring new opportunities，But they need to change more，First, it is difficult to turn around，Second, adjustment takes time，Will also face potential unknown risks。Over a longer period of time，It is difficult for their business and model to change significantly。

Strive to find a breakthrough on the ice

（2020.08.15~2021.03.04）

In these 200 days，There are two main lines，First, most travel companies are still struggling，Performance suffered serious damage，At the same time, waiting for the opportunity for the market to restart，Some companies may continue to go bankrupt；Second, many countries are seeking to partially open their borders，Guide some tourists to enter the country for consumption，The reason why the country’s tourism industry cannot sustain it，The gradual vaccination provides opportunities。

It was reported in September last year，The world’s largest OTA Booking plans to close at least five of its offices around the world；

Deutsche Lufthansa had planned to lay off 2 employees by the end of last year.90,000 people，Another 10,000 people will be laid off this year；

Disneyland plans to lay off 2 people.80,000 people，its data display，As of June 27 last year，Its three-month loss was 47.USD 200 million，This is the first quarterly loss in nearly 20 years；

November 17 last year，Malaysian AirAsia Group confirms the bankruptcy of AirAsia Japan；The 18th of the next day，Norwegian Airlines files for bankruptcy protection in Ireland；

............

For many destinations，It is difficult to bear the impact of the epidemic，Take Thailand as an example，Reference data is displayed，The lack of international tourists has led to a sharp decline in Thailand’s tourism revenue，Its tourism revenue is expected to shrink by 70% in 2020，It will take at least 3 to 4 years to return to normal。

March 8 this year，Announced by Thailand Digital Economy Promotion Committee，Joined multiple companies to launch the “Digital Yacht Quarantine” project (international tourists undergo a 14-day yacht quarantine in Phuket，You can move freely on the island after the quarantine is over)，To revitalize Phuket tourism。

Earlier，More countries or regions are seeking to create breakthroughs for cross-border tourism，For example, there were multiple intensive actions in October last year: Australia decided to increase the upper limit on the number of tourists arriving in Australia each week；The United States plans to lift the ban on cruise ships from November；Japan relaxes restrictions on South Korea、Travel restrictions in Singapore and other countries and regions；Announced by the Civil Aviation Authority of Singapore，Singapore will lift entry restrictions on tourists from mainland China from November 6；South Africa’s Tourism Minister proposed to fully open the border by December to stimulate tourism。

Among them，The "travel bubble" mechanism has been tried to be promoted in many countries and regions，But the overall effect is not good，It takes time to perfect the new mechanism，188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino The rebound of the epidemic is a variable factor。

As early as October last year，Due to the obvious rebound in the global epidemic，Many countries have announced that they have entered the "second wave" of the epidemic and tightened 188bet sports betting app download Epidemic Prevention measures，Cross-border travel, which has started to trend, continues to decline。

At the end of this 200 days，There are two things that can serve as a reference for the gradual recovery of cross-border tourism in the future。

One is February 4th this year，Proposed by ASEAN Tourism Association，Planning to promote the ten ASEAN countries’ plan to reopen borders，In the first half of this year，Southeast Asian countries are beginning to consider hosting guests from the 10 ASEAN countries and China、Business travelers from three dialogue partner countries including Japan and South Korea，For people coming from places with no or low risk of infection，Reduce their isolation time。

The second is March 7 this year，The Chinese version of “International Travel Health Certificate” is officially launched。Vaccination is becoming a positive variable in driving cross-border recovery。

But the effect of this variable has multiple influencing factors，Including but not limited to the effectiveness of different vaccines、The recognition of different vaccines in different countries and regions and the corresponding policy mechanisms，The interoperability and synergy of these policies，And the travel psychology of outbound travelers, etc.。

Uncertainty is one of the biggest crises。The trends of outbound travel wholesaler Jiuzhou Fengxing in November last year，This is a typical footnote for this uncertainty。

Jiuzhou Fengxing was once listed as one of the top five wholesalers of outbound tourism。November 12 last year，Among about 120 employees at Jiuzhou Fengxing headquarters，About 80 people were “persuaded” to resign，Signed the separation agreement ("Labor Contract Termination Agreement")，In the end, only the management was left behind。

From the outbreak of the epidemic to this resignation event，Jiuzhou Fengxing employees have received 5 postponement notices for resumption of work，Respectively in February last year、March、May、October (twice)，This may indicate that the company once held hope that outbound tourism would gradually resume，To retain employees until business recovery，But "hope" is full of uncertainty、Always delayed，Until later, I finally “couldn’t bear it anymore”，Had no choice but to “dismissal” most of the employees，Retain core employees，Self-rescue and preserving the “fire” for a comeback。

Caesar Travel recently、The merger that Uxin Travel is promoting，In fact, there is hope、Uncertainty、The meaning of grouping together to save oneself，is the latest psychological refraction and realistic choice of giants on the recovery trend of cross-border tourism。

Optimism hidden in pessimism

（2021.03.05~2021.06.13）

In these 100 days，There are two trends intersecting，First, the virus mutates during the epidemic in some countries and regions、Bounce；The second is the European Union、Many countries in Asia and other countries continue to try frozen cross-border travel，Open a breakthrough，Initiatives include rollout of vaccine passports、Travel bubble、Digital Green Certificate，Create special inbound tourism corridors, etc.。

On the one hand，Epidemic virus mutation、Bounce，Means that the epidemic has not been completely controlled yet，The uncertainty is still great，This casts some shadow over the opening and recovery of cross-border tourism；On the other hand，Increase in vaccination 188bet sports betting app download population、Expanded coverage，Provide an important basic condition for the resumption of cross-border tourism，But the role of this basic condition becomes substantial、Enlargement，Still depends on multiple conditions as above，The combined effect of these conditions，It will also increase uncertainty。Some of the trends that can be roughly guessed are:

1、Point-to-point cross-border travel (partial) interoperability between two countries or multiple countries is about to resume；

2、Regional cross-border travel (partial) interconnection between multiple countries and multiple points resumed，For example, ASEAN、EU, etc.；

3、Large range、It is difficult to resume cross-border travel between regions，More time is needed；

4、Based on the first 2 recovery possibilities，The positive significance is that advance interoperability can help promote corresponding policies、Exploration of mechanisms and measures，Opening up more possibilities for the opening and interoperability of cross-border tourism in these countries or regions，Also provide certain reference for other countries or regions，Thus promoting the recovery of cross-border tourism on a larger scale。

Combined with recent domestic and foreign cross-border tourism activities、Look at the new trends of enterprises, etc.，Cross-border travel can be considered a mixed blessing，There is some pessimism hidden in the optimism。

Positive and optimistic is，Public information display，MSC Cruises announced that it will restart operations in Spain from June 26，Dream Cruises plans to take the lead in resuming operations in Hong Kong, China in July，Royal Caribbean Cruises to resume U.S. cruises in June......

But the recent announcement from Caesars Travel，Proposed stock exchange and merger with Uoxin Travel，Issue A shares at the same time to raise supporting funds，points to "money"，It’s a group gathering。

Caesar Tourism had a net loss of nearly 700 million yuan last year，Uoxin Travel’s net loss exceeded 1.4 billion yuan，The two giants continued to lose money in the first quarter of this year，Refer to the business and market conditions of both parties，Continuing losses this year will be irreversible，I really can’t bear it。Planned merger，It also means that both parties are not optimistic enough about the recovery time of outbound travel (cross-border travel)，This time may take two to three years or even longer。

Look at it from another perspective，Caesar、Zhongxin doesn’t care whether they fit together or not，In the next few years，The domestic tourism market must focus on the development direction，such as Caesar、The duty-free market that Zhongxin is planning，More changes are also coming，This is a typical microcosm of the situation where cross-border tourism has not resumed。

Impact of the epidemic、Long recovery period for cross-border travel，It will inevitably bring changes to the international tourism market pattern，The domestic tourism market will perform more obviously。Short term view，Return conversion of outbound tourism consumption，Already pushing up domestic tax-free consumption、The partial rise of niche destinations、Mid-to-high-end tourism consumption, etc.，It also affects Hainan’s level and positioning as a domestic tourist destination。

Medium to long term，The entire domestic internal circulation、Inner loops in different areas，Dependence on tourism consumption is bound to increase，This will be more reflected in top-level policy design and other aspects，Policy benefits will be more，Such as land、Finance、Industrial planning, etc. will create more space，Raised ceiling。At 188bet app download the same time，Destination is converting more consumption through the supply of new cultural tourism products，will be both more passive and more active，This will drive the destination、Reform of domestic cultural tourism product supply system，It will also partially affect the competitive landscape of the destination (for example, Hainan’s competitiveness will be different)，When cross-border travel resumes in the future，The competitiveness of inbound tourism may also increase。