Fosun 188bet released profit forecast for the first half of 2022 on July 18，Turnover increased by approximately 198% year-on-year.0%，Loss attributable to shareholders of the parent company is expected to be between RMB 1.500 million to RMB 2.500 million yuan，Loss of RMB 20 compared with the first half of 2021.0.5 billion yuan is gradually narrowing，Of course，All this is due to the continuous lifting of travel restrictions in various countries in the first half of the year、The reason why overseas business recovered quickly。Fosun 188bet takes the lead in recovery thanks to its broad business layout、Multiple sources of income，But in the country，Fosun Travel can’t hide its worries。

"Profit Notice" Disclosure，First half of 2022，Sanya·188bet’ expected turnover is 4.86.9 billion yuan，A decrease of approximately 41% compared with the same period in 2021.7%；Lijiang Fuyou City and Thomas Cook EBITDA Expected Loss。

Fosun 188bet official website display，Fosun 188bet’s main business consists of three parts，respectively resorts、Travel destinations and vacation scenario-based services and solutions。Among them，The resort sector is responsible for development、Operate and manage the resort，Mainly Club Med、Casa Cook and Cook’s Club three brands；The 188bet purpose section is responsible for the development、Operating and managing tourist destinations，Mainly Atlantis、Foliday Town and Albion brands；The service and solution section is responsible for providing services and solutions based on vacation scenarios，Mainly Fanxiu、Mini camp、The four brands of Thomas Cook and Fyouhui。

Fosun 188bet business territory (from Fosun 188bet official website)

Although Club Med’s revenue has increased significantly in the past six months (first half of 2022) in the just-released “Profit Notice”，reached 57.43.1 billion yuan，An increase of approximately 336 compared with the first half of 2021.0%，Restored to 90 for the same period in 2019.2%；But the losses in the 188bet destination segment and services and solutions segment cannot be ignored。Loss of multiple supports from other channels，Coupled with the unpredictable international environment，Club Med“小马”Can it still attract the destinations carefully laid out by Fosun 188bet“Big Car”？

一、Original plan“Troika&188bet;Layout change，Club Med“小马&188bet;Cannot pull destination“Big Car&188bet;

Fosun Travel’s layout cannot be said to be without foresight。Fosun International Group has acquired control of Club Med and Thomas Cook shares，Of course Cirque du Soleil is also part of the overall layout。Building a full industry chain platform from passenger flow channels to destination attractions to promote a new model of destination cultural 188bet，Has both international resources and Chinese characteristics，Fosun 188bet Planning“Troika”，Good intentions。

Unforeseen circumstances。Thomas Cook is one of the oldest and leading travel groups in the world，In the end, due to changes in myself and the general environment, I fell before the epidemic；Cirque du Soleil was very popular for a while，In the end, we fell under the epidemic due to changes in the general environment。&ldquo in the original layout of 188bet Travel;Troika”Two of them fell down one after another，Club Med Resort strives to move forward，The ideal strategic layout failed to come true，This is a thing of the past。

Thomas·188bet and Cirque du Soleil fell before and after the epidemic

After Thomas Cook declares bankruptcy，Fosun 188bet spent 11 million pounds (approximately 96.07 million yuan) to acquire the brand trademark and website、Online assets such as social media accounts，And launch Thomas Cook online travel platform。

But unfortunately, the new platform has had little success.

Let’s look at platform revenue first。Disclosed according to the 2021 annual report，“Tomikook&188bet;Platform’s 2020 income 1.83.7 billion yuan，2021 income 3.57.9 billion yuan，95 year-on-year increase.1%。The Thomas Cook online travel platform it operates in the UK，Received an equivalent of RMB 3 in 2021.RMB 8.3 billion revenue。Comparison with the online travel platform Ctrip Group in the same period (2021) 200.2.3 billion、Tongcheng Travel 75.3.8 billion revenue，Thomas Cook is not the same as yet。

Let’s look at business development and promotion costs。As pointed out 188bet management discussion and analysis section of the 2021 annual report，The operating loss of the services and solutions business segment based on vacation scenarios in 2021 is RMB 2.67.6 billion yuan，And in 2020 it is RMB 1.40.2 billion yuan，Mainly due to the increase in business development and promotion costs of Thomas Cook China and Thomas Cook UK。In addition，Part of cash flow used in investing activities，Digital technology investments including Thomas Cook lifestyle platform also account for intangible assets RMB1.5.9 billion yuan。

Let’s look at platform traffic。Disclosed according to the 2021 annual report，As of December 31, 2021，“Tomikook&188bet;The cumulative number of downloads of platform applications is 2.6 million，The total order volume in 2021 is 270,000 orders。

Finally, let’s look at the destination boost effect.Fosun 188bet 2020 Annual Report Display，Club Med’s annual turnover is 56.05.6 billion yuan，58 less than in 2019.4%。In 2021，Club Med’s annual turnover is 59.78.3 billion yuan，Only 44 in 2019.37%。

It is not difficult to see that，Club Med remains the main force in the resort segment and one of the key components of Fosun 188bet’s revenue。But it is really difficult to rely on Club Med to drive destination revenue。

First，Club Med Marrying to China is not always smooth sailing。Club Med targets the middle class abroad，And in China, it has become a four-star quality luxury brand，There is still a feeling of acclimatization in market positioning，The collective poisoning incident in previous years exposed management problems and cast a shadow on this brand。Casa Cook and Cook&rsquo 188bet resort section;s Club is like product fine-tuning，But it still needs to be inspected to obtain Chinese market approval。

Secondly，Lost the offline support of channel partner Thomas Cook and the help of Cirque du Soleil, the original planned 188bet core attraction，Club Med is more like an island in the vast sea，There is no lighthouse on the island that penetrates the fog，There are no ships landing on the island at sea。For the island of Club Med，Fanxiu looks like a lantern carried by a fisherman on the pier，Thomas Cook is like a small boat on the sea。The lantern cannot guide the direction，Even a small boat cannot carry a large number of tourists。

Club Med“小马&188bet;Cannot pull destination“Big Car&188bet;，Sanya·Atlantis (hereinafter referred to as “Atlantis&188bet;) Can the mode be pulled?？

二、The end of the cultural 188bet real estate model，Can Atlantis be copied？

March last year，At the 2021 Annual Online Results Conference，Fosun 188bet executives talk about Taicang、Lijiang“Selling House”Full of confidence in the great cause。They may never dream of it，Just 4 months later，The cultural 188bet real estate model will be urgent“Pull the brakes”。

188bet’ past data is quite good。Although affected by the spread of local epidemics in August last year，188bet operations show fluctuations，But the annual turnover reached 14.5.5 billion yuan，A new high；The hotel’s annual occupancy rate is 71.5%，The average daily room price is about RMB 2418.9 yuan。Looking back at 2020，188bet’s annual turnover is 12.2.7 billion yuan，The annual average room price is 2154 yuan，This year’s performance has reached a new level。This shows that 188bet has strong product and brand power，Having absolute competitiveness in the Sanya market。

Zhihui investigation found，Atlantis uses “Heavy assets but light investment”’s business operation model，is a typical“Cultural 188bet platform，Real estate singing”。

This also depends on the important supporting projects of 188bet——Talking about Tang’an Project。The Tang'an project refers to 1,004 available vacation property units near 188bet，Includes 197 villas and 807 vacation apartments，Building area reaches 161082 square meters。

Due to the Tang’an project being pre-sold in advance，In the first half of the year 188bet opened (2018), funds were already returned 69.8.8 billion，Effectively guaranteeing the return of funds to 188bet。As of one year after 188bet opened (end of June 2019)，The Tang'an project has sold 190 villas and 788 apartments，Settled 70% of the funds required for the project，Significantly reduce heavy asset investment。

The supporting properties are for sale，Just the first step in the Atlantis model。Next，Lease back the sold house from the owner who purchased the house，Entrusted to the management of Albion brand under Fosun 188bet，And charge 6% of rental income as management fee。This forms a closed loop，Tang’an project is more like an investment tool，Returning funds through the sale of real estate，It also meets the owner’s asset preservation and appreciation needs through sale and leaseback，Also serves the personalized accommodation needs of Atlantis tourists by recovering rent，Also expands vacation visibility by bundling stakeholders (owners)，It can be said that it achieves multiple things with one stone。

But，“Fosun 188bet since the success of Atlantis project，Whether it is Lijiang Fuyou City or Taicang Fuyou City，Can’t say it has been successful。”Founder and Chairman of Zhihui Group、Liu Zhaohui, Vice Chairman of the China Exploration Association, in "Thunderstorm"、Loan suspension spreads，Cultural 188bet Real Estate“End of life”Big Drama" pointed out in the article，The domestic cultural 188bet real estate model has ended，The business model of Atlantis is difficult to copy to Fyou City。

First, the end of the domestic cultural 188bet real estate model，means &ldquo in Atlantis mode;Cultural 188bet platform，Real estate singing”’s path no longer works，Rising stars can no longer acquire land at low prices in the name of cultural 188bet and then quickly return funds through real estate sales。In this case，Cultural 188bet projects avoided by the Atlantis model“Heavy asset investment、Extra long reflow cycle”will reappear，At that time, the natural life cycle iteration attribute of the tourist destination will be added，The guarantee of early cash flow will not be the only issue that needs to be considered。

Second, the policy is no longer beneficial，Opportunities are hard to find，Not all major tourist destinations can become Haitang Bay。As a link between Asia and Oceania、Sanya is an important fulcrum connecting the Pacific and Indian Oceans，Having a unique natural environment、Open preferential policies and huge development prospects；In addition, the development space of the other three major bays is increasingly narrowing，Attracting many internationally renowned hotel management groups to compete in Haitang Bay。You can see it from the row of dotted seaside hotels，Although there are many competitors around 188bet，But it also brought a huge passenger flow，Formation of benign competition and cooperation effect，Guarantee its non-room revenue (non-room revenue is approximately the same as guest room revenue)。Look at Lijiang or Taicang where Fuyou City is located，Although Lijiang is a popular tourist destination in China，But lack of international reputation、International accessibility is far weaker than Sanya；Although Taicang is located in the Yangtze River Delta Economic Circle，But it is not well known in China、International popularity and accessibility are even different from Sanya。

Third, brand advantages cannot be copied，Not all projects are called“Atlantis&188bet;。The Atlantis brand has been on the artificial palm island in Dubai before Sanya、Panama is widely praised，And won multiple major awards，Especially if you have the ";The Oscars of 188bet”known as“World Travel Award”。The Sanya project leverages the international popularity of the Atlantis brand，Quickly open the international market；At the same time, relying on mature business models and management methods，Reduces business risks to a great extent。Fuyoucheng is an almost new brand，Lack of blessing from internationally renowned brands，How Fuyou City can quickly open up domestic and foreign markets has become an issue that needs to be considered。

3. Can the FOLIDAY flywheel effect rotate?

Fosun 188bet has built a relatively mature FOLIDAY 188bet ecosystem，From resorts to tourist destinations to services and solutions，Fosun Travel can basically achieve a one-stop solution。But the flywheel effect has not yet formed，The road is still long and difficult。

What is “Flywheel Effect&188bet;？Why should we form“Flywheel Effect&188bet;？

In the field of cultural 188bet investment，Form“Flywheel Effect”Meaning the rapid flow of funds。Take the Atlantis model as an example，Although Fosun 188bet invested 11 billion yuan，But in the first half of the year Atlantis opened (2018), funds were already returned69.8.8 billion yuan。The rapid return of funds means that Fosun 188bet can use the returned funds to invest in new projects without damaging its foundation and continue to grow。

With the end of the cultural 188bet real estate model，Fosun Travel’s chessboard becomes increasingly difficult to figure out。Not only the replication of the 188bet model requires a question mark，The rotation of the FOLIDAY flywheel effect also requires continuous observation。

As of December 31, 2021，Lijiang Fuyou City has 482 units available for sale，62 sets sold，Sales value is 82.8 million 188bet；42 sets delivered，Recognized RMB 50.9 million as revenue，The value of goods to be sold reaches 5.943.5 billion 188bet。

The situation in Taicang Fuyou City seems to be better。As of the end of 2021，Among 949 units that have been pre-sold，560 units delivered，Recognized revenue of RMB 13.3 billion yuan。But compared with 188bet back then, there is still a huge gap。

You can get a glimpse of something from the investment in two Fuyou cities。As of December 31, 2021，The total cumulative cost incurred by Taicang Fuyou City is approximately 45.90.6 billion yuan，The data of Lijiang Fuyou City is 16.34.5 billion yuan。The funds recovered by the two accounted for approximately 28% 188bet total investment.97% and 3.11%。

Hindering the rotation of 188bet Travel’s FOLIDAY flywheel effect，Also its high debt ratio。According to annual report data，Fosun 188bet’s total liabilities at the end of 2021 is 342.9.3 billion yuan，332 compared to the data at the end of 2020.5.3 billion yuan, an increase of more than 1 billion yuan，The debt ratio also increased from 77 in 2019.09% rose to 91 in 2021.98%。

Fosun 188bet’s 2021 annual report also pointed out，“We are actively seeking opportunities to further develop business in Hainan Free Trade Port，We plan to actively expand our 188bet destination business in Hainan under the Fuyu City brand，Reached a cooperation intention with the Sanya Municipal Government on the development of Sanya Fuyou City。”

Sitting on the unique geographical advantage of Hainan International Trade Island，Own the "Atlantis";cousin”’s joint assistance，Sanya Fuyou City is bound to be better than“Brothers”The road to Taicang Fuyou City and Lijiang Fuyou City is smoother。But the cultural 188bet real estate model has ended、Sanya cultural 188bet destinations are blooming everywhere，What is the uniqueness of Sanya Fuyou City？What should be the core attraction？

Fuyou 188bet·Lijiang Mediterranean International Resort Rendering

“First, how to break through the current heavy asset investment tourist destination projects，Including the second phase of Atlantis project，Further expand earnings on the basis of high-quality assets；How to quickly decontaminate the resort properties in Taicang and Lijiang Fuyou City projects is an issue that needs to be focused on。The second is including Club Med、How can excellent resort brands across the ocean, such as Casa Cook, retain their unique advantages from abroad，Carry out localization transformation。Make good use of domestic vacation hotspots，Rapidly expand market share。&188bet;Zhou Mingqi, founder of Jingjian Think Tank, told Zhihui，“In addition，After years of fierce competition in China，The pattern of OTA platforms has tended to be solidified，Fosun 188bet launched&lsquo based on the acquired Thomas Cook brand;Tomikook’Can online lifestyle platforms create unique attractions，How many old customers from Thomas Cook can be retained at home and abroad and how much online share they can occupy also needs to be continuously observed。”

“Recurrence of epidemics at the international level、Trade wars are coming and going，Internal circulation dominates the domestic level、The end of the cultural 188bet real estate model，The problems with Fosun 188bet’s existing business model have become increasingly apparent。”Zhihui founder Liu Zhaohui said，“Under the current situation，It is difficult for 188bet Travel to form a flywheel effect，The top priority is to find ways to make changes，Revitalize Taicang Fuyou City and Lijiang Fuyou City，Ensure the normal operation of cash flow。&188bet;