Recently，Liang Jianzhang pointed out in his article，National economic operation data recently released by the National Bureau of Statistics，China’s overall economy is growing steadily，However, we are facing problems such as overcapacity and insufficient effective demand in some industries，The effective demand here does not include effective 188bet app demand，Insufficient including effective investment demand。

Under the current economic situation，The 188bet app level of Chinese families is seriously low。Compared to most high-income countries and emerging market economies，The final 188bet app expenditure of Chinese residents as a proportion of GDP is low。After analyzing the three major reasons for the low 188bet app level of Chinese families，Liang Jianzhang thinks，To solve the problem fundamentally，We need to send money to families，There is an urgent need to introduce strong policies to stimulate 188bet app，Send the newly added currency directly to families。

In Liang Jianzhang’s opinion，Giving money to families will not cause inflation，Because China is currently experiencing overcapacity、The stage of underemployment，So by stimulating 188bet app，Idle production capacity and labor can be utilized。In addition，He also thinks，Subsidy for developing children using fiscal deficit，Will have obvious economic effect，It is also beneficial to long-term economic innovation vitality。And，Sending money directly or issuing consumer coupons is more effective than other stimulus policies such as lowering interest rates。The following is the full text。

China’s economy is generally growing steadily, but 188bet app also faces many difficulties

National economic operation data recently released by the National Bureau of Statistics，Although China’s economy is growing steadily，But at the same time, we also face many difficulties，One of the main problems is overcapacity and insufficient effective demand in some industries，Insufficient including effective 188bet app demand and effective investment demand。The added value of China’s manufacturing industry accounts for 8% of the world’s total, up from 8% twenty years ago (i.e. 2004)，Increased to current 31%，But China’s population now only accounts for 17% of the world’s population.5%，188bet app only accounts for 13% of global 188bet app，There is a relatively large gap between production capacity and 188bet app。

One consequence of the gap between production capacity and 188bet app is underemployment。According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics，April 2024，The unemployment rate of the 16-24-year-old labor force in urban areas across the country, excluding school students, is 14.7%。According to data released by the Ministry of Education，China’s college graduates will reach 11.58 million in 2023，The number of college graduates will rise to 11.79 million in 2024，The number of college graduates has hit record highs year after year，Employment pressure will continue。

According to data released by the Ministry of Finance，January-April 2024， National general public budget revenue 8,092.6 billion yuan，Year-on-year decrease of 2.7%，National general public budget expenditure 8,948.3 billion yuan，YoY growth 3.5%。Decrease in fiscal revenue，188bet app may be related to the cooling of corporate profit margins、Related to the decrease in land transfer fees。Some places are recovering past taxes in order to increase fiscal revenue。For example，June 12 this year，Listed company Bohui Co., Ltd. announced the suspension of production，And in March，Bohui Shares received a notice requesting a tax repayment of 500 million yuan。

The central government has issued many policies to stimulate 188bet app and boost the economy，But some policies have not achieved the expected results。End of May 2024，Narrow money (M1) balance 64.68 trillion yuan，Decreased by 4 year-on-year.2%，The lowest value since data is available。The decline in M1 is mainly caused by the decrease in demand deposits of enterprises and institutions，Especially the decrease in corporate demand deposits。Corporate time deposits are not included in M1，And included in M2。Why do companies place time deposits，Not a demand deposit？If the enterprise wants to invest，We need to buy raw materials、Pay wages, etc.，Need to write a check，Only current deposits can be used to write checks，You cannot write checks on time deposits，So if companies invest in the short term，Will put current deposits。Enterprises’ willingness to invest is now declining，And the interest rate of time deposits is higher than that of demand deposits，So companies reduce demand deposits，Put it in time deposit。

Real estate is a typical industry in economic downturn。According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics，National real estate development investment from January to May 2024 is 4,063.2 billion yuan，10 year-on-year decrease.1%；Among them，Residential investment decreased by 10.6%。Real estate development investment has fallen for 26 consecutive months since April 2022。The housing construction area of ​​real estate development companies decreased by 11% year-on-year from January to May.6%，Among them, the residential construction area decreased by 12.2%。The area of ​​new housing starts decreased by 24.2%，The area of ​​newly started residential construction decreased by 25.0%。May 17 this year，Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development、Ministry of Natural Resources、Central Bank、The State Administration of Financial Supervision jointly issued a number of major policies，Including decrease in down payment ratio，Interest rate lower limit canceled，Unprecedented relaxation of real estate credit policy。But the effect 188bet app 517 real estate new policy remains to be further observed。

Due to layoffs or salary reductions, etc.，Many residents who took out loans to buy houses are unable to repay their mortgages，More and more residents are abandoning their houses and cutting off their mortgage payments，leading to a sharp increase in foreclosures。Data released by Zhongzhi Research Institute，The total number of foreclosure houses nationwide in 2023 188bet app reach 79.60,000 sets，A new high。10 national foreclosure auctions in January 2024.040,000 sets，A year-on-year increase of 48.2%。

In investment，Because the real estate industry is still at a low level，So overall there is serious overcapacity。In the past, 188bet app could be driven through investment，But China’s infrastructure demand has become saturated，For example, the mileage of highways and high-speed rail is already the first in the world。If you invest heavily in the project，Could be a huge waste。

The stock market is a barometer of the economy，In recent years，China’s A-share market continues to slump，Shanghai Composite Index fell below 3000 points multiple times。It can be said，A shares are a huge 188bet app-losing effect、A market with extremely low 188bet app-making effect。In comparison，US stock market、Indian stock market hits new highs。

According to the estimate of Professor Mao Zhenhua, co-director of the Institute of Economics at Renmin University of China，2023 compared to 2021，The residential sector’s real estate assets have shrunk by about 9% in total.8 trillion，Bank wealth management has shrunk by 2 trillion yuan，The stock has shrunk by approximately 5%.4 trillion，The continued decline in asset prices has led to the deterioration of residents’ balance sheets，Resident departments dare not consume、Expected to weaken，Exacerbating the contradiction between economic supply and 188bet app。

The 188bet app level of Chinese families is seriously low

Compared to most high-income countries and emerging market economies，The final 188bet app expenditure of Chinese residents as a proportion of GDP is low。Observe the GDP demand structure of major countries from 2012 to 2021，China’s household 188bet app rate (resident 188bet app/GDP) is only 38%，18 percentage points below the global average，The investment rate (capital formation/GDP) is 19 percentage points higher。Compared with middle- and high-income countries at the same development stage，Chinese residents’ 188bet app rate is 9 percentage points lower，The investment rate is 11 percentage points higher。With high-income countries、Especially compared to the United States，Low 188bet app、The characteristics of high investment are more significant。

1983，The highest proportion of total employee wages in GDP in China is 33.89%，The proportion of total disposable income and 188bet app expenditure of residents in GDP is 62% respectively.45% and 52.01%。By 2022，Total employee wages、The proportion of total disposable income of residents and total 188bet app expenditure of residents in GDP is 24 respectively.02%、43.03% and 28.62%。

The 188bet app level of Chinese families is low for the following reasons:

First, because a large amount of additional currency issuance mainly flows to central enterprises、State-owned enterprises and local urban investment firms，Rather than going to private enterprises and residents，The majority of ordinary families do not have enough money for 188bet app。

The second reason is that people lack confidence in future expectations，Worried about future income decline，Don’t dare to spend boldly。In 188bet app case，Residents’ precautionary savings increased significantly。

The third reason is because 188bet app sectoral distribution of national income，Government departments account for a disproportionately high proportion of revenue。

The current fiscal and monetary policies are loose on the surface，But the money was only given to companies but not to families。If companies continue to be pessimistic about the consumer market and demographic trends，Then the company will not increase investment。To solve the problem fundamentally，We need to send money to families。Therefore, it is urgent to introduce strong policies to stimulate 188bet app，Send the newly added currency directly to families。

Give 188bet app to families and use fiscal deficit without worrying about inflation

Someone is worried，Will giving money to families cause inflation？Prerequisites here，It depends on whether there is spare capacity and whether employment is sufficient。China is now experiencing overcapacity、The stage of underemployment，So by stimulating 188bet app，Idle production capacity and labor can be utilized。What China is facing now is not inflation but negative price growth，Just in need of deficit fiscal stimulus。Of course，Deficit finance cannot be a long-term solution，An appropriate correction can be made during the inflation cycle。But at this stage，There is no need to regard deficit finance as a scourge，But consider its specific feasibility from an economic perspective。

Stimulating the economy through fiscal deficits during economic depression cycles，In fact, 188bet app is the famous Keynesian theory，After World War II，Keynesian theory is a generally recognized economic theory and macroeconomic control method。As for the applicable conditions for stimulating the economy through fiscal deficit，There is a lack of demand and employment in the context of deflation，Exactly the situation China is currently facing。

Based on the basic principles of economics，In case of insufficient demand，Fiscal deficit spending will have an obvious multiplier effect，And it won’t cause inflation concerns。Therefore，Subsidy for developing children using fiscal deficit，Will have obvious economic effect，It is also beneficial to long-term economic innovation vitality。And，Sending 188bet app directly or issuing consumer coupons is more effective than other stimulus policies such as lowering interest rates。

So if you want to stimulate 188bet app by giving out money，Can be through fiscal deficit。For sovereign countries with the right to mint money，Fiscal deficit can be borrowed from the central bank,Such an operation is essentially just a number on the central bank’s balance sheet，This is the so-called quantitative easing。

Take Japan as an example，More than 30 years since the 1990s，Japan’s total general government debt as a share of GDP continues to rise。According to IMF data，In 1990, Japan’s total general government debt accounted for only 69% of GDP，But 188bet app exceeded 100% in 1996，Breaking 200% in 2009，In 2022, 188bet app will be as high as 261%。Horizontal view，Japan has become the country with the highest government debt ratio among the world’s major economies。Japan in the past few decades，Maintain employment and price stability through large fiscal deficits，Successfully maintained low unemployment rate and basically no inflation。

Currently China’s economy has deflation rather than inflation to worry about，Falling prices will lead to a weakening of people’s willingness to consume。And，Price has dropped，But it secretly increases the debts of individuals and companies，Because the actual value of the assets held has shrunk，And mortgage loans to banks have not decreased。This is a typical &ldquo in economics;Balance Sheet”Economic recession caused by recession。The solution is to avoid deflation by issuing more 188bet app。

In addition to distributing 188bet app through fiscal deficit，You can also raise funds through other methods to distribute 188bet app。Professor Mao Zhenhua spoke at the China Macroeconomic Forum in March this year，Proposed to release 10 trillion cash subsidies in batches (7,000 yuan per capita，about 1000 USD)、Proposal to reduce 10 trillion infrastructure spending。

From the source of funds，There are many ways to finance cash subsidies。On the one hand, you can use the profits of state-owned enterprises for a year，The profit of state-owned enterprises in 2023 is 4.6 trillion yuan。On the other hand, the existing fiscal expenditure structure can be adjusted，Convert previous fiscal expenditures for infrastructure，Special will be invalid、Inefficient infrastructure expenditure reduction，There is still huge room for switching to 188bet app subsidies for the residential sector。In addition，We still need to get rid of“188bet app is waste”This traditional concept。We saw many places，Including the United States and Hong Kong, China, the economy maintained a virtuous cycle during the epidemic，A very important reason is that residents have avoided a contraction in demand with the support of cash subsidies，Each resident in Hong Kong will receive about 2.HKD 50,000，The United States distributed approximately ,400 per resident，188bet app plays a decisive role in maintaining economic prosperity。

Giving 188bet app to families with children is a double benefit

It has gradually become a consensus in the economic community to solve the current problem of insufficient economic demand by adopting active fiscal policies。Some economists advocate stimulating 188bet app by issuing consumer coupons，I think it is actually easier to issue cash，And it will not be biased towards individual products and industries。A better and fairer way is to give money to families with children，Because parenting families bear the burden of raising children for society，At the same time, it will help solve the serious problem of low birthrate that China is facing now。

While China’s economy is facing downward pressure，China’s fertility rate and birth population are also facing downward pressure。The fertility rate in 2022 is only 1.05，Only half the replacement level。From 2017 to 2023，China’s birth population has been declining for seven consecutive years。Based on revised data from the Seventh Census，The number of births in 2016 reached 18.83 million，Birth rate 13.57‰。The number of births in 2023 is only 9.02 million，The birth rate is only 6.39‰。Visible，Both the number of births and the birth rate in 2023 188bet app be less than half of those in 2016，A new low since 1949。

China has become one of the countries with the lowest fertility rate in the world，There are many reasons，There are reasons for universal international regularity，For example, women’s education level has increased、Young people pursue personal independence, freedom and enjoyment, etc.；But 188bet app also includes special domestic reasons，For example, the cost of childbirth, parenting and education is too high，House price to income ratio is too high、Factors such as the shortage of nurseries。China’s childbirth costs relative to income are almost the highest in the world。

And give 188bet app to families with children，Is the most important thing to reduce the cost of childbirth、One of the most direct ways。What you can see is，Since the implementation of the three-child policy，More and more places have introduced or plan to introduce policies related to childcare subsidies，Spend real 188bet app to encourage fertility，But the current level of subsidies is still far from enough，Lower than most European countries，Also lower than Japan and South Korea。To increase China’s fertility rate，We need to increase the amount of 188bet app given to families with children。

Give money to children，In the short term, it will help stimulate 188bet app and investment confidence。If the money is paid to the family，Can stimulate、Increase various consumer demands。If a better loan policy could be provided，If you can buy a house for these families with many children，It can also stimulate real estate。Long term view，The increase in population can enhance China’s innovation and competitiveness。Why population is so important for innovation？First reflected in the scale effect。Population size is an advantage for innovation，Businesses in a country with a large population have more advantages。And the stable growth of macroeconomics、The economic environment continues to improve，In turn, it is also conducive to improving the overall fertility rate，Provide a better environment for population growth，Form a virtuous cycle

In terms of returns，188bet app to encourage childbirth is transferred from the fiscal to families，There is no waste of social resources。If encouraging fertility is effective，In other words, the family has an extra child，Then as long as the child’s contribution to society when he grows up is greater than the 188bet app to encourage childbirth，Those with positive returns，In other words, more wealth is created。

We suggest sending 188bet app to stimulate the economy，It is different from the four trillion plan proposed during the 2008 financial crisis。Four trillion in 2008，Mainly invested in affordable housing and infrastructure construction，And we recommend sending 188bet app，is sent directly to families，Especially for families with children。Sending 188bet app to families with children has better long-term returns than previous infrastructure investments。Is it healthy to send 188bet app to stimulate the economy?，The most important thing is to see whether there will be good returns in the long term，If you invest in expanding some excess production capacity or some inefficient infrastructure projects，Overcapacity will intensify in the future，Financial bad debts and other issues。But giving 188bet app to families with children will not lead to over-investment，Instead produce more urgently needed newborns。

Funding for maternity benefits comes from universal taxation，Is this fair to singles and DINK 188bet app？It’s fair in the long run，Because of the child’s future tax and social security contribution to the entire society，Will benefit everyone，This also includes people who do not have children。The current tax system and pension system actually allow those who have children to subsidize those who do not have children，Providing maternity benefits only corrects this injustice。Children are the future innovators、Builder、Strugglers and taxpayers，So 188bet app raising children are actually working hard to raise children for the future of the country。Give these 188bet app adequate subsidies，Not only fair，And necessary。

Specific policy suggestions for sending 188bet app to families

It is recommended to distribute 188bet app to families according to the number of children，The specific policy suggestions are as follows:

1、Cash subsidy: 1,000 yuan monthly subsidy for each child，Give each second child a monthly subsidy of 2,000 yuan，A monthly subsidy of 3,000 yuan for each child with three or more 188bet app，Until the child reaches 20 years old。

2、Individual tax and social security exemptions: for 188bet app with two children，Implement personal income tax and social security halving，188bet app with three or more children are exempt from personal income tax and social security (for particularly wealthy 188bet app，You can set an upper limit for capping subsidies)。

Financial expenditures for the above fertility support measures，Estimated to account for 2%-5% of GDP。The current investment and 188bet app demand in China’s economy is sluggish，Trillions have been distributed to families and 188bet app has also increased，Children’s related 188bet app can drive real estate，Durable consumer goods and other related industries。I have one more child and need to buy a bigger house，Bigger car，This can just boost current consumer demand。Also if the fertility rate increases，has more population，The long-term expectations for China’s economy will be relatively optimistic in the future。Population size is the basic advantage of innovation，China’s innovation in the field of new energy has achieved world-renowned achievements in recent years，It benefits from its largest market and talent scale in the world。

Conclusion

The fundamental problem facing China’s current economic difficulties is insufficient effective demand，Family 188bet app level is low，The fundamental reason is that the family does not have enough money for 188bet app，There is not enough money to raise children。To solve the problem fundamentally，We need to spend trillions to provide money to families (especially families with children)。If the money is given to the family，You can directly reach the real economy through household 188bet app，Immediately play the role of boosting demand and curbing deflation，It can also promote employment，Forming expectations for economic growth。We believe that the current problems in the Chinese economy are temporary，It can be solved through appropriate macro policies to stimulate demand and encourage childbirth。In the long run，We are very optimistic about the continued improvement of the scientific and technological innovation capabilities of Chinese enterprises and the development prospects of the Chinese economy。