A few days ago，Many people’s Moments were flooded by Fu Peng, Chief Economist of Northeast Securities, at his speech at the Ifeng.com Financial Forum。Because 188bet app download speech seems to me，Everything said is almost true，The logic is more consistent，It matches everyone’s body feeling，That’s why it went viral。

I have thought about it for a long time，I don’t know if I should analyze 188bet app download speech，If you think about it, let’s briefly summarize the four main points of Fu Peng’s speech，Then start my analysis。

A bygone era fades

Fu Peng’s speech views are as follows:

1、High domestic savings cannot mean strong 188bet app download power，A high savings rate is the basis for 188bet app download

188bet app download 12 years after Japan’s real estate bubble burst 188bet app download 1990s，Japan’s total national savings have been growing，But the savings rate of Japanese households after deducting all expenses dropped to 0。In other words，These 12 years of difficult times，Most Japanese people have not saved much money。So，The current domestic savings balance is very high，It does not mean that everyone has money to spend，It is more of a defensive behavior。

2、Growth in any industry brought about by aging，Cannot keep up with the decline in total 188bet app download caused by aging

Overall，Elderly people over 60 years old，188bet app download desire is declining。Because the 188bet app download desire of young people is obviously much stronger than that of the elderly。The problem today is that young people can no longer upgrade their 188bet app download。And the past 2009-2019 years，It has always been an era of China’s 188bet app download upgrade。

So，No matter how much the elderly spend，188bet app download cannot offset the inability of a large number of young people to spend money due to insufficient income，The market gap caused by。

3. We are entering the intermediate stage of 188bet app download downgrade

If the 188bet app download upgrading process of the huge middle class in the past few years is the growth of labor income，That’s no problem。But if many people upgrade their 188bet app download from 2009 to 2019，Based on the wealth effect brought about by rising housing prices，That would be a very dangerous signal。

Give an example，Real estate has shrunk in the past two years，Some unfortunate people，After they lost the down payment，Became a negative equity，His 188bet app download must be downgraded。So many people now，No more coffee worth 40 yuan，Only drink buy one get one free coffee for 8 yuan。Wealth has shrunk，188bet app download will naturally degrade。

But these two years，We have just entered the intermediate stage of 188bet app download downgrade，Don’t worry，Not yet。

"As for when this time period will be completed，I borrowed the conclusion of a research report from Guosheng Securities: refer to Japanese experience，The proportion of local real estate in residents’ wealth has dropped below 50%、The decline in house prices narrowed to 1-2%，There may be a downward trend in 188bet app download towards real estate“Desensitization”，188bet app download picks up。Deduction based on my country’s current situation，In the next two years, the drag on 188bet app download tendency by real estate is expected to remain significant，188bet app download may continue to be weak。"

4、The reduction 188bet app download wealth effect of residents brings about the contraction of enterprises，The two superimpose to form a negative spiral

The current 188bet app download problem is first of all the shrinking wealth effect，Insufficient 188bet app download caused by。At the same time，In addition, revenue growth expectations have been undermined，Many families have encountered cost reduction and layoffs by enterprises，So I dare not consume，This will enter a negative spiral cycle。So everyone has questions about the products you can buy or not，Don’t buy either，Save some food for the winter。

So far，188bet app download will be transmitted to insufficient market demand，Leading enterprises into vicious competition，To ensure profitability，Enterprises can only further lay off employees to reduce costs and increase efficiency。Therefore，Such a negative spiral is self-reinforcing。

The situation in Japan back then was exactly the same as ours now，Many people often say，China is different from Japan，Looking at the big picture, 188bet app download may be different，But in terms of the economic situation of the residential sector，Actually very similar。

The above 4 views，Bleeding with swords，After reading，188bet app download makes people feel depressed and depressed，Feeling hopeless about the future。

But think about 188bet app download carefully，Economists are good at summarizing and summarizing from historical events，They are looking at the macro market pattern，188bet app download also gives us a sense of the bottom line。But，They can’t solve the micro market、Problems facing every industry and everyone。

Entrepreneurs are the creators of the future。As the saying goes“The pessimist is correct，Optimists move forward&188bet app download;。

To solve the current problem，We have to abstract away from historical cycles and macro data，For the grand and complex political and economic issues that ordinary people cannot control，There is nothing we can do。And 188bet app download can work，Listen more to entrepreneurs and business consultants，Because they use their own trial and error and exploration，Come and find us a new direction of action and courage。

Understand the current era

I remember participating in an internal forum of an industry association last year，A big boss mentioned in his speech: “Attention everyone，188bet app download is not a cycle that has passed，But an era has passed。”I don’t know why，188bet app download sentence has always lingered in my ears from time to time in the past two years。

So the question now is，How do we understand the new era？How to cope with the environment of 188bet app download era，Go find“New changes and structural increments”。188bet app download is what I want to talk to you about，How to survive in a declining market，See the glimmer。

Let’s first look at some of the thorny issues that have arisen in the consumer market 188bet app download year.

Mid this year，Hang Lung、The operating income of Taikoo Li’s high-end shopping malls dropped sharply，Represents the end of the carnival of luxury 188bet app download in the golden age。

Relevant news said that the number of high-end restaurants in Shanghai has been reduced by half，It is also the epitome of the same reduction in high-end 188bet app download。But middle-class 188bet app download is not good either，So the unit price per customer of Starbucks and various tea shops is falling，High-end snack and catering brands such as Din Tai Fung and Taoyuan Village are retreating，These 188bet app download phenomena all mean the decline of middle-class 188bet app download as mentioned by Fu Peng。

Compare Japan，Waseda University professor Yukio Noguchi wrote 188bet app download passage in his "The Lost Thirty Years":

“188bet app download department store field，The bubble collapsed 188bet app download second half of the 1990s。

Business dynamics statistics released by Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry，Japanese department store sales from 10 in 1989.5 trillion yen increased to 11 in 1997.1 trillion yen。The continuous decline in sales began in the second half of the 1990s。It can be inferred from this，In more than five years after the collapse of the bubble economy，Japan“Bubble”’s corporate 188bet app download continues。

The development of the department store industry began to decline significantly and the industry was reorganized，It was in 2000, more than ten years after the collapse of the bubble economy。&188bet app download;

In short，The transmission time of Japan’s real estate bubble to the consumer market is more than 5 years，And China starts from 2021，188bet app download only took 3 years to be introduced into the consumer market。

So，There are now a number of brands that are not suitable for the current economic environment，Basically they are luxury goods or conspicuous 188bet app download brands belonging to the golden age。This era is clearly over，The next business model should pay more attention to the actual 188bet app download ability and psychological needs of current people，And change accordingly。

In short，In such a whole“The Age of Sinking”，188bet app download with high cost performance and emotional value attributes，This is the focus of everyone’s attention nowadays。

A batch of new 188bet app download phenomena

Let me list a number of new 188bet app download phenomena:

1、The outlet market continues to be hot，This is“Cost-performance + new scene 188bet app download”'s model

The popularity of outlets in the past two years has not been a day or two，188bet app download is already common knowledge in the field of physical business。Outlet sales volume reaches 2 in 2023,30 billion yuan，YoY growth 9.5%，Becoming one of the fastest growing formats in the retail industry。

188bet app download year “May Day” Period，Wangfujing’s outlets increased by 93% year-on-year，Qingpu Bailian Outlet set a sales record since its opening on May 1st。

2、Each chain brand is broken into parts，Remove from big to small，Pursue low cost and ultimate price/performance ratio

Although the catering market has declined overall 188bet app download year，The catering industry in Beijing and Shanghai is not profitable，But 188bet app download year a number of famous catering brands such as Taier、fellow chicken、Kudi Coffee，They all opened ";Satellite store”。These satellite stores are takeout specialty stores built by chain brands to provide customers with high-quality takeout，Thus forming a“Big store dine-in + small store takeaway”'s pattern。

The satellite store here is not as large as the ordinary store，With warehouse，Kitchen，Add another packed area，became the &ldquo of chain catering brands;New makeup&188bet app download;。

Data display of takeaway platform，The monthly sales volume of Nong Geng Ji satellite stores in Beijing is generally between 2000+ and 4000+ orders，Some are as high as 9000+ orders。Calculated based on the per-capita customer price of 29 yuan displayed on the takeout platform，The monthly turnover of such a satellite 188bet app download can reach 5.2 million yuan。

You can also see it from Meituan’s data，As of recently，150 catering brands have opened more than 1,000 satellite stores on the basis of dine-in stores。Compared with dine-in and takeaway restaurants，A brand satellite store jointly built by the platform and the brand，Store rental and decoration costs reduced by 60%，Exposure increased by more than 30%、Order conversion rate increased by 5 percentage points，Single store orders are 1% of new store orders 188bet app download same period.74 times，The average profit rate reaches 14.8%。

And brand satellite stores have become a 188bet app download store type for takeaway growth，We are rapidly lighting up more cities at a rate of 100 per week。

188bet app download method of breaking everything into zeros，Not only in the catering industry，There are also classic cases in the fitness industry，For example, Super Gorilla Gym。

Different from ordinary traditional gyms，Super Gorilla Gym does not sell cards，No promotion，Fitness pays directly per session，Round to zero。At the same time, they also adopted“Social fitness”'s pattern，Traditional personal trainer fighting、Strength training、Plastic Yoga、Dance and cycling classes are turned into group exercises，The coach leads a group of students to train，With dynamic music and atmosphere，After each practice，The coach will also organize a group photo of the students，After thorough revision, it will be sent to students，Exhibits energy and friendship。188bet app download model now allows Super Orangutan to have more than 3 million members across the country。

3. Outdoor micro-vacation, the rise of new 188bet app download in new scenarios

The economic boom in previous years，City parks、Country Park、Town、Rural and urban resort destinations are experiencing a wave of construction。And 2023“Parks in various places are fully open to the public”After the policy is released，Micro vacation trend brings an explosion in the outdoor sports market，188bet app download has led to the emergence of various brands“Rewilding”Trend，For example，Take the famous outdoor brand Arc’teryx as an example。First half of 2024，Archa’teryx China revenue 5.US.9 billion，Surge of 52% year-on-year。

After Citywalk，The trend of Cityride urban cycling continues to heat up。2023，The number of views of cycling-related videos on the Douyin platform increased by 94.4%，Search volume for cycling related content increased by 137.4%， Such popularity has led to booming sales 188bet app download cycling category。

From the statistics of the China Bicycle Association，2023，my country’s output of bicycles worth more than 1,000 yuan reached 12.15 million，15 year-on-year increase.1%，The proportion of thousand-yuan vehicles in total output has reached 24.9%，188bet app download is expected to reach 2657 by 2027.700 million yuan。

4. The outbreak 188bet app download two-dimensional market

After 1990s，Japan’s economy has experienced“The lost 20 years”，Young people in the context of a sluggish economy，The spirit needs comfort。At 188bet app download stage，Japanese animation and game industry begins to develop，Japan’s economy lost twenty years，188bet app download is also the 20 years since the two-dimensional market regained its hold on the world’s hearts。

Today，The annual output value of Japan’s animation industry is 230 trillion yen，The animation industry and its derivatives accounted for more than 10% of Japan’s GDP，Has become the third largest industry in Japan，At the same time，Japan is also the world’s largest exporter of animation industry creations。60% of animation works 188bet app download global animation industry come from Japan。

30 188bet app download later, China today is a bit like Japan back then.

Starting from the opening of China’s first two-dimensional themed shopping mall, Shanghai ZX Fun Center, in 2023，The domestic two-dimensional commercial market exploded all of a sudden。Until 188bet app download year，“Guzidian revitalizes the old shopping mall”’s topic became a hot search topic。Judging from Meituan data，January 1st to April 23rd 188bet app download year，Nationwide“Guzidian”Search terms increased by 8227 year-on-year.2%。

So，Nowadays, major shopping malls are introducing two-dimensional business formats，Boost the overall popularity of the mall。So，188bet app download is a niche、Distinctive、But a rapidly developing market，They are widely active in major core cities in China。ZX Fun Market Source: Real Estate Observer

5. Emotional brands are rising against the trend

The epidemic 188bet app download past two years and the current poor economic environment，Making many people anxious，Need comfort，So“Loneliness Economy”“Companion Economy”Upon demand，“It’s economical”Start to rise。The Pacific Securities Research Report shows，The scale of pet products in my country has maintained a year-on-year growth rate of 15%-20% 188bet app download past five years。

Taobao data display，188bet app download year“618”Period，Cat and dog baked food sales increased by over 100% year-on-year，Cat pet raincoat increased by 166% year-on-year，Cat and dog hair accessories increased by 214% year-on-year。In 188bet app download way, a number of pet economy brand companies were born to expand against the trend。
Let’s take a look at the Electric Pet Department 188bet app download.

It is a popular cute pet shop brand in Shanghai 188bet app download past two years。They are opening big stores in many shopping malls。As a brand positioned as a trendy pet buyer store，“Power Pet Company”Supply retail covers staple foods、Snacks、Cleaning and Care、Toys、Pet clothing、Nearly 260 brands in all categories including travel towing bags，5,000+ products，With unique selections，Discover pet brands with design sense at home and abroad，Open a new starting point for pet-centered social life。
Look at Tagi again.

Tagi founded in 2019，188bet app download is a high-emotional home and grocery lifestyle brand，Their store is located on Urumqi Middle Road，Every holiday，There will be a queue of people here。

Tagi’s name is very nice，The English translation is “Timely gateway to exciting imagination”，This is a brand that can provide high emotional concentration，Her core users are women aged 20-40，Reflecting the characteristics and pain points of independent female consciousness and self-pleasant 188bet app download，Capture the hearts of customers。

Tagi adopts colorful dopamine color matching design in product colors，Retro and bright colors，Very personal and infectious，For 188bet app download reason，The products here have“Healing Power”、“Imagination”and“Love life”'s unique tag attribute，It meets all kinds of new imaginations for a daily home weekend，hence its popularity。

Now Tagi. has become a guest of major popular non-standard commercial projects，has always been a very popular brand 188bet app download market。

Let’s look at Basement FG.

BF who has become very popular in the country in the past two years，Every time a store is opened，It’s all crowded。188bet app download is a company focusing on “100-300 yuan vertical fashion brand track”、Clothing brand for young audiences born in 1995 and 2000，The entire store is“Warehouse retail”way，The decoration adopts American retro hot girl style，Simple and stylish，Has a popular rough aesthetic。

Because BF’s shareholders have scarce idol artist resources，Hence their good-looking celebrity activities and store staff，Brings abundant offline popularity to store promotion。188bet app download kind of“rice circle”How to become a trendy brand，Also a new mode。

5. In addition to the domestic 188bet app download, we are also focusing on the international 188bet app download.

Everyone knows，During the Depression，UNIQLO Japan、Thalia、Don Quixote，These affordable brands have emerged rapidly during 188bet app download period。

Same，In Germany’s failed economic downturn after World War II，The rise of affordable supermarket ALDI，188bet app download relies on diligence and thrift、A company started with selected products and lean management，Now it has developed into a world-class supermarket，Now we are also expanding our territory in the domestic market，Continuously opening stores。

The above examples of innovation in consumer markets at home and abroad，Just a corner of transformation。I listed him out，Just want to give you some inspiration。The problems each of us are facing now，Still need to use more modern resources，More modern tools，Use a more innovative way to solve the problem。

Summary

‌There is a famous verse in Rabindranath Tagore's "Birds"，“The world kissed me with pain，I repay it with a song&188bet app download;。The poet tells us，Even if life is full of pain and challenges，We should also remain optimistic，Respond to the world with songs and hope。

Although the market is difficult，Negativity and anxiety cannot solve the problem，We still need to face it positively。In 188bet app download era of great changes，Re-recognize 188bet app download new era，Quickly get rid of the old era，In fact, it is a homework that everyone must complete now。

I used the Japanese business god Kazuo Inamori to deal with five business strategies during the Great Depression，Let’s give you a reference，That is:

1、Full employee marketing，Everyone understands customers，All employees are aware of customers。

2、Strive to develop 188bet app download products。Develop 188bet app download products that are more in line with 188bet app download trends，We must be determined to find 188bet app download solutions。

3. Complete cost reduction.

4、Maintain high productivity。Ensure everyone’s work must be saturated。

5、Building good interpersonal relationships。Depression Period，We must unite and keep looking forward。The more difficult times，The more important 188bet app download is to manage trust，Strengthen communication。

So，In 188bet app download new era，Who can“Take the lead”Turn around，Whoever can reap the market dividends；Who can“Success”Turn around，Who can survive；Who“Unsuccessful”Turn around，That will be lost in the dust of history。