Previously we talked about the possible impact of the default tying dispute on 188bet mobile login Transportation’s revenue in the short, medium and long term。Although returning to the competitive situation between 188bet mobile login and Priceline，188bet mobile login’s two-way structure of transportation and accommodation business will not change。But the challenge of single-passenger air ticket revenue，Added to domestic competitor Meituan to gain momentum，Will be linked to 188bet mobile login Group’s future tactics and strategies，In this article we will discuss possible changes outside of the air ticket business in order of importance。

The importance of ground 188bet mobile login is rising

The subsequent changes in the transportation business，In addition to domestic ticket revenue per passenger (ARPU, Average Revenue Per User) should be reduced，The growth rate of air ticket volume can return to the growth rate no less than that of the large market (announced by the Civil Aviation Administration)，Ground services 188bet mobile login given more emphasis。Although the current train ticket business has a huge ticket volume，It is estimated to be on the order of hundreds of millions per quarter，But from the perspective of commission income，It’s hard to compete with air tickets。

High-speed railway is a national trend，Bus ticket business expands into cities at all levels with its layout，A product that is so down-to-earth for offline needs，Can it bear the group’s urban sinking needs，There are better ways to monetize and attract new customers，188bet mobile login the main challenge in 2018。Considering that there are about 500 million airline passengers a year，About 3 billion people on the railway，About 15 billion road passengers；In the future, not only air tickets 188bet mobile login the group’s diversion entrance，The entire transportation business should be the group’s diversion entrance。

Figure 1: Annual passenger transport volume of China’s air/rail/road passenger transport (2010-2016) (unit: thousand people)

Source: Civil Aviation Administration of China、National Railway Administration、Ministry of Transport

Note: The number of highway traffic flow observation stations changed in 2013，Adjust caliber

188bet mobile login’s internationalization means full competition with Priceline

Previously mentioned，In the past, 188bet mobile login’s revenue model was that both hotels and hotels accounted for half the sky，First two quarters of 2017，The year-on-year growth rate of transportation is 19% ahead of the accommodation rate，But the future growth rate of the accommodation business must still maintain a growth rate of 30%，Only in line with investors’ expectations for growth stocks。

188bet mobile login is benchmarked against Priceline by the capital market，Development cannot avoid comparison with Priceline (or Booking) (Figure 2)。At present，Priceline’s market value continues to rise，The high growth rate of room nights and revenue in the accommodation business has no limitations for the time being (2017 may be an inflection point，We still have to wait for the fourth quarter financial report announcement before the coffin can be finalized)。

Figure 2: Comparison of 188bet mobile login’s accommodation business and Priceline’s accommodation room night growth rate

Data source: financial reports of each company

Note: Priceline represents the year-on-year growth rate of room nights，188bet mobile login reports year-on-year revenue growth，Inconsistent comparison basis，For reference only

Currently, 188bet mobile login and Priceline’s second-tier competitor, Agoda, are at odds with each other in Asia，In the long run，Sooner or later, 188bet mobile login’s internationalization must fully compete with Priceline。

In the four quadrants intertwined with domestic/overseas and nationals/foreigners (Figure 3)，At present，188bet mobile login can win in the domestic/domestic field，Although it is not easy to completely suppress Meituan，But it is still very difficult for Meituan’s average room night price to reach 188bet mobile login’s level，The two sides are in a stalemate，Priceline has no chance。The overseas/foreign sector is currently dominated by Priceline，Europe belongs to Booking，There is more Agoda in Southeast Asia，Part of the significance of investing in Meituan is to delay 188bet mobile login’s overseas expansion time and resource investment。

domestic/foreigners and overseas/nationals fields，This is where the two sides first clashed，At present, it seems that both parties have existing advantages，Not big enough to avoid the possibility of a comeback。188bet mobile login can, in the short term, deeply explore some short-term countries where Chinese people travel frequently (such as Japan, South Korea and Thailand)，By direct procurement and self-operation，Make good profits；In the long run，I’m afraid the acquisition will have the most direct effect，If this part does not acquire a large number of accommodation companies，It depends on the synergy of connecting accommodation API through ticketing companies such as Skyscanner。

Figure 3: 188bet mobile login and Priceline International Competition Quadrant

Source: Haize Capital

International acquisition ideas, "people with similar interests" gradually see the same thing

Also discussed before，Skyscanner is a very good investment for 188bet mobile login，Skyscanner’s stock has been consolidated into 188bet mobile login’s increase in 2017，After 2018, we will look at the integration effects of both parties at other levels。

We think，Large-scale acquisitions that can have an impact on 188bet mobile login’s revenue，May be inclined to Skyscanner mode，Pay more attention to the significance of traffic entrance。Make My Trip is located in India, which has a population order of magnitude close to China，Skyscanner ranks at the top of meta-search in many countries，They all have a large number of overseas tourists。

188bet mobile login’s ideas are also gradually encountering “comrades”。Recently, Expedia became the majority shareholder of Traveloka in Indonesia，We are optimistic about Indonesia’s population of nearly 200 million，It also means that in addition to optimizing the main hotel business in Expedia’s investment portfolio，Gradually understand the importance of overseas mobile traffic，At the same time, we have a better understanding of the current situation of consumption upgrade in Southeast Asia。If you only focus on the Chinese/outbound dimension，Traveloka is of little significance，But if you look at the tourism potential of the Southeast Asian population，The competition intensity is already very high，Not much time left for 188bet mobile login。Booking is Priceline’s best acquisition investment，The capital market is also looking forward to how 188bet mobile login will build its own “Booking”。

Provides three possibilities for domestic growth

Relatively vast international market，188bet mobile login’s international base is still very small，So internationalization must be the main theme of 188bet mobile login；Although the domestic base is large，But from a meaningful perspective on 188bet mobile login’s revenue/market cap，There are still three possibilities that can provide growth for 188bet mobile login:

One: 188bet mobile login + Meituan room nights≑ Priceline

The most noteworthy，Of course it is the possibility of capital cooperation between 188bet mobile login and Meituan in the accommodation field。Priceline invests in Meituan，As an international giant，Endorsing Meituan and 188bet mobile login both have a value of US billion；But in terms of influence，Inferred based on Priceline and investment status，I’m afraid there is not even a director seat in Meituan。The game between Meituan and 188bet mobile login，It is still the interests of both parties that dominate。Of course Meituan has more chips than before。

From an order of magnitude perspective，188bet mobile login + Meituan’s hotel room night，The summer peak has reached more than 40 million room nights a month (Meituan’s room nights in August were 20 million)，188bet mobile login’s inter-city night volume in low-tier cities reached 20 million in July)，With Priceline Q2 1.700 million room nights is relatively close，It’s just that the price per guest (the average price per room per night is about US0) is far lower。

188bet mobile login is a lot like Apple，Meituan is more like Amazon，China’s 188bet mobile login and Meituan are at war with each other，Apple and Amazon are in peace，Of course this is because Amazon does not produce its own mobile phones，Apple does not use the e-commerce platform model to sell products other than Apple。The structure and competition between 188bet mobile login and Meituan，After all, it’s not homework help and Xiaoyuan searching for questions。Can Meituan and 188bet mobile login’s accommodation business find a way to maximize the interests of both parties?？This is not just about 188bet mobile login，Also watch Meituan；Not just looking at Sun Jie，Also look at Wang Xing；Don’t just look at the current price，More about the future scale。It may be difficult to discuss cooperation at this stage，The situation is like an alliance under the city to 188bet mobile login，But things are unpredictable，Meituan operates a model without reference templates，There will definitely be problems of its own in the future。

In addition，Since 188bet mobile login and Tencent can reach an agreement on the integration of Tongcheng and eLong，Tencent is Meituan’s major shareholder，Whether intervention will benefit the interests of the three parties including myself？It is also an angle that can be observed。

Second: Tongcheng/Elong cooperation is the forerunner of 188bet mobile login/Tencent cooperation？

The second one worth observing，It is the capital cooperation between Tongcheng and eLong。If this cooperation includes related parties，Also includes 188bet mobile login and Tencent。The significance of this transaction，The key to Yilong is to regain its listing ticket；To Tong Cheng Yu，After Tongcheng Network went public，Tongcheng International Travel Service can obtain another development fund，See if we can get an opportunity to integrate the travel agencies under the original Wanda Group。

Of course，Tongcheng/Elong after listing，188bet mobile login has potential benefits from the release of shares，How to balance influence and increase funds for international acquisitions，is the focus of observation。But for 188bet mobile login/Tencent, the major shareholders of both parties，has a greater meaning。Tencent will be friends or enemies with 188bet mobile login in the tourism field in the future？Can 188bet mobile login pass its shareholding in Tongcheng/Elong，Obtain the shipping rights (or partial shipping rights) of accommodation/transportation inventory at the WeChat entrance？Meituan and Priceline (or Agoda) will share the benefits of 188bet mobile login through domestic/international hotel shipments through WeChat portal？There are still many sections for sale at the Tencent WeChat wallet entrance，Whether we will cooperate with 188bet mobile login on more levels？For example, whether the large field or sub-field of tourism and vacation can obtain entrance？

Considering that 188bet mobile login is also the major shareholder of Tongcheng Elong，Tencent will definitely respect 188bet mobile login’s voting seats on the board of directors，How to maximize the final unanimous interests of Tencent and 188bet mobile login？If we talk about the results of mediation by the management of both parties，Has the potential to change the map of the world’s major travel companies，Not an exaggeration。

Third: After Tuniu turned losses into profits

The third key point of observation，Yu Tuniu。Tuniu can only be ranked third，On the one hand, tourism and vacations account for a small proportion of 188bet mobile login Group’s revenue，Only 9 in 2017Q2.5%，With Tuniu, it’s just double digits；Secondly, the tourism and vacation industry chain is too long，More susceptible to geopolitical influences，The bottleneck of Internet penetration is also huge。Tuniu’s huge loss of 2.4 billion in 2016，I believe it scared many institutions/companies that are willing to take over。Considering the ceiling of market size and influence，Tuniu and Qunar are not the same thing，But from the perspective of reducing the intensity of market competition，Consider Tuniu’s scale and product line again，If you want to say which company can Tuniu’s acquisition bring the greatest cooperation benefits and the lowest integration difficulty，After all calculations, it’s probably still 188bet mobile login。

In addition to the scale effect，188bet mobile login’s complete product line、Platform mode、6500 franchise stores operated by Travel Best Pass，Add Tuniu’s direct-operated stores，Maybe it can really penetrate into the customer base of lower-tier cities。But there is more than one team within 188bet mobile login that can shoulder the responsibility of mining low-tier cities，Finally returned to，Can Tuniu prove that it can turn losses into profits in 2017Q3，If you can，It’s best to find your own blue ocean in 2018，Doing it better than just turning a profit for the whole year。People must help themselves before others can help，After proving that operating cash flow can turn positive，The brand benefits of Tuniu and the value of the cash on the account will truly emerge。

On good observation posture

Returning to the recent issue of air ticket bundling that has attracted much attention，We still think this is just a small episode in 188bet mobile login’s long-term development。188bet mobile login certainly has its own legal position that it can stand firmly on，But if you want to increase the unit price, you will be asking for trouble，Consumption of brand value in vain，It’s best to just click like this until everyone has their own way down the stairs。188bet mobile login is now huge，Can the double arrow of transportation/accommodation income continue？Can international acquisitions and integration be accelerated？How well do you grasp the only opportunities within the country？With Meituan、How will the rivalry between the two giants Tencent develop？Paying attention to these may be the best way to study 188bet mobile login、Thinking about the future ceiling of China’s OTAs，The best observation position。

*Source of 188bet mobile login article：WeChatPublic account "Travel Kunpeng News”(ID:kunpengnews), author: Luo Haizi, HaiFounder of Select Capital. Original title: "After the witch hunt，188bet mobile login can only bet on hotels based on Priceline？(Part 2)》.