April 16-18，By China Outbound Travel Trade Fair (COTTM)OrganizerThe COTTM2018 Conference co-organized with Zhihui was held at the Beijing National Agricultural Exhibition Hall (New Hall)。This conference invited many industry leaders，Comprehensive interpretation of new opportunities and difficult challenges in outbound travel in 2018。Zhihui founder and CEO Liu Zhaohui attended this conference and delivered a keynote speech。

Liu Zhaohui shared the structural opportunities of China’s outbound tourism market from four levels，188bet online sports betting

Liu Zhaohui said，These four major structural opportunities should be paid attention to in the long term，Including long-term development opportunities in the outbound tourism market，also includes“One Belt, One Road”, technology and the entire 188bet online sports betting second-, third- and fourth-tier cities are experiencing a deeper market decline.A sinking market means a sinking crowd、The sinking of demand，Also means an explosion of greater demand，We will have more market opportunities to explore。

The following is the full text of Liu Zhaohui’s speech:

Dear guests、Dear friends，Good morning everyone！Zhihui has been a forum partner of COTTM for two consecutive years，I am also very honored to witness with you such an excellent peer trading platform and peer exchange opportunity with a history of 14 years。I have been thinking about the topic I want to share with you today for a long time，There were many uncertain factors when talking about outbound travel last year，This year I tried to boldly propose，Can we talk about structural opportunities from a more macro perspective？Today I will talk about some situations and emerging opportunities that China’s outbound tourism market will face in the future from several aspects。

Why is it called structural？I think structural opportunities should be sector-based，There is a big historical push、Industry technology iterations also bring changes in the industry structure，So structural opportunities are mainly used as an introduction to attract others，What I want to share is from a more macro level in the industry。

There is room for long-term growth in the outbound tourism market

My sharing is divided into four sections，In the past year, we have continued to observe the Chinese outbound travel market，Including changes and changes in the international tourism market，So there is still room for long-term growth in the outbound tourism market。

Comparison between China and the United States，China’s current outbound tourism actually has greater room for growth compared with the U.S. market。

Under the strategic layout of the country’s “One Belt, 188bet app download One Road” strategy，New products and new opportunities are emerging，Some people say this is the rise of China’s land power，The Internet breaks the original limitations of sea power，It also allows the “Belt and Road Initiative” to connect all mainland countries through China’s grand strategy，Bringing a big space for growth to the tourism industry。

Then there is the incremental space in the second, third and fourth tier markets，For example, "Wolf Warrior"、"Operation Red Sea" box office reached more than 5 billion yuan，Most of these box offices come from the incremental space of the second, third and fourth tier markets that were previously ignored，The changes in the first, second and third cities will also be obvious，But this change should be said to be more segmented and themed，The incremental space in 188bet online sports betting second-, third- and fourth-tier cities is worth noting，Also take a look at the changes and opportunities brought about by new technologies。

In 2025，If China’s outbound tourism market removes Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan，2 more.5 times growth potential。Comparing China and the United States，Now the average number of flights in China is 0 per person.5 times，The United States is 2.5 times；The gap between China’s GDP and the United States，We are 8000 USD，The United States is about 50,000 US dollars，So the above prediction can basically be verified，This data comes from Goldman Sachs。In the future, by 2025, the market growth plus Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan will reach 2.About 500 million yuan，There is basically room for doubling growth now。

Comparison between 2016 and 2017，The growth of the international tourism market is 1 except for the Asia-Pacific region.6 times growth rate，Other areas basically declined by about 1 point，The growth space in the Asia-Pacific region is mainly supported by China and India，So there is still huge space in the tourism market。

From the research of the World Tourism Organization，In 2017, China has surpassed India and the United States in terms of total number of global tourism visits and total tourism revenue，Occupied the first place，But our tourism income is about half that of the United States，The United States reaches 10 trillion US dollars，China has only reached about 680 billion US dollars。So this is worth pondering，We far outnumber the United States，But our income is only half that of the United States，The increase in tourism still leaves a lot of room to improve quality and efficiency。

If compared from a historical macro perspective，According to statistics from the U.S. Tourism Bureau，Except for the big economic bubble and subprime mortgage crisis since 1994，In the past few years, tourism consumption in the United States has maintained an average growth rate of about 20%，Per capita consumption is nearly 2,000 US dollars。China in the stage from 1997 to 2005，Per capita consumption abroad also continues to grow，Already reached $1932 in 2016，The per capita growth rate still has a certain amount of room compared to the United States。

If we look at a longer period，These two pictures are statistics from the United States，Market growth space from 1929 to 2016，Except 1929 188bet sports betting app download to 1933，Large economic crisis from 2007 to 2009，U.S. tourism has maintained a relatively stable growth rate，The average growth rate is about 20%。Compared with China’s market growth rate from 1995 to 2016 and that of the United States in the same historical period，Now we are equivalent to the level of the United States around 1970，The average number of trips per capita for Chinese families is about 3 times，The United States is currently about 7 times， We are basically the same as the historical stage of the United States in the 1970s and 1980s。

It should be said that there is a possibility of substantial increase in China in the next few years，That is, under the same historical period in the United States, we should still have a large room for improvement，This is the opportunity for long-term growth。

National “One Belt and One Road” layout: One Belt and One Road ignites new hotspots for outbound tourism 

About the country’s “Belt and Road Initiative”，2015 National Development and Reform Commission、The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Commerce proposed the opportunity to jointly build the Silk Road and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road，These policies are real to the tourism industry。Currently, 24 provinces and cities in China have launched the “One Belt, One Road” strategic implementation strategy，Including countries along the route can bring more tourism opportunities，This opportunity will also appear faster、Develop more。China has signed the right of convenience for tourist citizens with 46 countries along the “Belt and Road” initiative、Visa convenience and travel preferential policies，The industry is currently responding very quickly，Tuniu、Tongcheng、These cutting-edge OTAs from Ctrip，The total number of line products currently launched is 50,000，So such changes should bring more industrial development opportunities to the industry。

The development of “One Belt and One Road” can promote tourism exchanges with countries along the route、More and faster travel transactions，Hainan Province’s tourism policy will be significantly relaxed this year，Including the emergence of free trade zones, tourism is also the core focus。The country is currently making many attempts，Including Hainan as an important node in the maritime economic belt and the Maritime Silk Road，It also brings more space for development and opportunities for future development for the entire tourism。 

Increasing space in the second, third and fourth tier markets

This data in the incremental space of 188bet online sports betting second-, third- and fourth-tier cities deserves everyone’s attention，The number of people organized by travel agencies in Shanghai and Beijing dropped for the first time in 2017，Actually a first- and second-tier city，Including changes in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen，Travel from people in these places，The proportion of people traveling independently is increasing，The proportion of travel agency group groups has become lighter，Require quality tourism、Personalization、Mobile、The trend of independent travel will deepen，The requirements for tourism products are also higher。

If we look at the changes in travel to Europe from 188bet online sports betting second-, third- and fourth-tier cities in the first half of 2017，AccountThe ratio has exceeded 50%，And the growth rate of this part will have greater room in the future。We have also noticed that in the past few years, the strategic co-operation process has been implemented、Ctrip、Caesar、Many tourism agencies such as Zhongxin are present in second, third and fourth tier cities。

The proportion of people in China who have passports is only 4%-5%，95% of people have not been abroad，Those who travel abroad for the first time choose whether to travel in a group or independently？Previous research only focused on first- and second-tier cities，There are still huge opportunities for market growth in 188bet online sports betting second-, third- and fourth-tier cities。This part of the space should be very worthy of everyone’s attention，Because according to Boston research，Proportion of travel searches in third- and fourth-tier cities in the past few years，Including the popularity of tourism，The demand for information search is more than 3-4 times that of first-tier cities，So maybe the income is not that high，But there is no pressure of housing in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen，Consumers have money and time，There is also a lot of free space and itineraries that can be arranged，The incremental space in this part deserves everyone’s attention。

In the next few years，China’s middle class and India’s combined will account for more than half of the world’s population，The future growth space of the two major markets of China and India mainly comes from the explosion of demand from the middle class。In recent years, we have often mentioned consumption upgrades，What is consumption upgrade？How to live a more abundant life。Everyone is rich，No longer worry about food and clothing，Travel is often the first choice for many people when choosing spiritual products，Moreover, the increase in the frequency of travel and the increase in tourism consumption are confirming these problems。The middle class in third- and fourth-tier cities is growing very fast，This group of people should bring exponential growth opportunities to outbound tourism in the future。

Change opportunities brought by new technologies

Finally, the changes and opportunities brought by new technologies，According to Gartner’s curve，Wireless network on the head、Big data、Artificial Intelligence、Blockchain、New experience technology，In fact, it will bring more and more new factors and driving forces to the entire industry。

China’s e-commerce growth in the next five years will account for more than 42% of China’s consumption，And the development of new technologies will also bring faster industrial upgrading。The growth rate of the US Internet compared with China，China is more than twice as big as it，And China is competing with the United States in all aspects, including technology with the Internet as its core。

By comparison,We basically compete with high frequency and high density，The development speed and potential of China’s mobile Internet and tourism e-commerce are no less than those of the United States，There are greater possibilities in this area in the future。

Artificial intelligence will improve the efficiency 188bet app of tourism operations,A large number of travel OTAs are already using artificial intelligence to replace some functions of Call Center，And can bring more intelligent services、More seamless links、Consumers’ service needs and consumer complaint responses，This part will have faster room for application。The tourism industry has become one of the main application directions of VR technology，I experienced Emirates’ artificial intelligence VR experience equipment when I was transiting in Chicago, USA last year，You can feel the feeling of watching a real football match on the plane，You can visit the entire Singapore in ten minutes。

In the Artificial Intelligence Laboratory of Stanford University four years ago，I once wore VR glasses to feel its changes，Equipment costing only about US$1,000，The experience and feelings it brings to us are completely different，So the future of the use of virtual reality is very worth looking forward to，Because it can give us the shock and cultural experience of traveling through mountains and rivers in one day。

Blockchain has been mentioned a lot in the past two years，It also makes many OTA partners feel nervous，Distributed storage、An agreement that cannot be changed、Transactions that can be carried out anytime and anywhere can be seamlessly connected with us，Blockchain will also bring more room for imagination，Although it is immature now，But we still have to embrace it，Because the next few years will bring us unexpected changes。The technology industry is rapidly responding to changes in blockchain and the possibilities brought by blockchain technology，I also heard sharing from the blockchain industry last year，TUI has been experimenting with the application of blockchain in the tourism industry on a large scale，These technological changes should bring more impetus to the entire industry。

At present, let’s talk about structural opportunities，In addition to technological changes、Integration of Culture and Tourism、Integration of Culture and Tourism、National overall “Belt and Road” strategy，These are all structural opportunities that have brought us，But technology is a link we can never ignore。Yesterday I hosted the press conference of PKFARE，Bike received tens of millions in Series A financing，The investor is Civil Aviation Investment Fund、Caesar Tourism and Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business Innovation Fund，Zuo Yu serves as the exclusive financial advisor。A very traditional travel agency like Caesar Travel and the big data technology platform for air tickets are combined together，From this integration，We can see the future technology level even in the field of air tickets，Despite being monolithic, there is still room for technological innovation。

We found that there is more room for imagination in the application of technology in the industry，Infrastructure is not a problem，It will be more intensive in the future、There are more possibilities for more efficient applications。The connection of globalization, including the possibility of entering into other fields from the air ticket field, still introduces new concepts，But can it 188bet app download truly subvert the industry，Changes in the industry，I think we can wait and see。Technological changes have at least given us a lot of inspiration，Even in such a closed air ticket field, there is still room for innovation，There is more room for innovation in other application fields。

Youtuniu and colleagues from Tongcheng are here，This forum will bring you more new thoughts、New ideas。We have also seen the use and launch of a large number of intelligent robots in hotels，Including the development of geographical technology、The future Internet of Things can bring us more changes at the service level，These technologies are just a few examples，Technological changes can bring changes to the industry that may be far more than the above categories，There will be more new things in the future。Just imagine，What did mobile phones look like ten years ago、What is the online experience like，You can imagine that all the things you see in science fiction movies will come true in the next ten years。

Return to the topic of today’s forum，We should pay attention to these four structural opportunities in the long term，Including long-term development opportunities in the outbound tourism market，Also includes “One Belt, One Road”, technology and the entire 188bet online sports betting second-, third- and fourth-tier cities are experiencing a deeper market decline.A sinking market means a sinking crowd、The sinking of demand，Also means an explosion of greater demand，We will have more market opportunities to explore。

We also have an international summit on an island in Shenzhen on May 10th，This year is the second session，We held the first session last year，A total of 800 people，This year I hope to continue to delve deeper into the industrial chain。Because island tourism accounts for 1/3 of the outbound tourism market share，It is also the most popular lifestyle among young people now，I hope everyone will pay attention to our island tourism industry summit。

There will also be the China Cultural Tourism Big Consumption Annual Innovation Summit in June，Such a summit is currently our largest cultural and tourism industry integration summit。Cultural tourism brings us more than just changes in cultural integration，It is more about the profound changes that have occurred in the entire industry on the supply side of products and the entire industry chain。