September 4，According to consulting firm Cirium，Currently about 2 in the world.About 35% of the 50,000 aircraft are still grounded，Although the proportion has dropped from as high as 66% in April when the grounding was the most serious，But still not optimistic。According to OAG data，August，The planned number of seats on global civil aviation scheduled flights fell by 47% compared with the same period last year。Although according to the data, it is already the lowest -69 in May.1% has recovered to a certain extent，But the overall recovery trend is still weak。Viewed from the numerical values ​​of each region，Thanks to the relatively fastest recovery of flight volume in mainland China，The recovery of transport capacity in Asia as a whole is relatively higher，The current capacity level in Asia has dropped from the lowest point of -53 in April this year.9%，Recovered to about 68% of the same period last year。In addition, Latin America and the Southwest Pacific are the two regions with the slowest flight recovery，The overall shipping capacity in August dropped by 58% compared with the same period last year.6% and 62.5%。

Chart: Monthly/weekly changes in scheduled flights in various regions from January to August 2020 compared with the same period last year Chart: Civil Aviation Resource Network Data source: OAG

188bet app

According to Feichang big data analysis，Driving by summer sports in August，The number of flights on mainland China routes continues to remain stable，Mainland China’s airports averaged more than 28,000 daily takeoffs and landings in August，12% increase compared with July，The highest single day in August is close to the average daily rise and fall level in 2018。In addition，Aircraft utilization continues to increase steadily，The average utilization rate in August is about 6.50 hours/day，13 month-on-month increase.64%。At the same time, the passenger load factor of mainland routes has increased，The average passenger load factor in August is about 72.74%。But on the other hand，Affected by the epidemic，Mainland China’s international flights continue to be at about 10% of the same period last year。Industry insiders say: China’s advantage lies in its huge domestic tourism market，This helps Chinese 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino airlines withstand shocks。According to Bloomberg on September 2, citing Airbus’ recent press briefing to global operations and maintenance companies，Out of 10,404 Airbus aircraft delivered worldwide，Nearly 2/3 have flown at least one flight in the last 5 days。The flight frequency of Airbus aircraft belonging to China’s civil aviation fleet during the same period was significantly higher than that of other countries in the world。China has a total of 1,895 Airbus aircraft，1,756 aircraft with flight records in the 5 days before Airbus issued the document，Accounting for nearly 93%。In flight statistics for Airbus A320 and larger，Forty percent of Airbus aircraft outside China had no flight records during the same period，This also reflects that China is playing an important role in boosting the fragile global economic recovery process。

In addition, according to the news released by the US Department of Transportation on August 18，China and the United States will each allow their domestic airlines to increase the total number of flights between the two countries from the previous four flights per week to eight flights per week，The total number of flights between China and the United States increased to 16。Among them, Chinese airlines’ implementation of the “Five Ones” regulations for international flights involves U.S. flights, including Air China’s Beijing-Los Angeles、China Eastern Airlines Shanghai-New York JFK、China Southern Airlines Guangzhou-Los Angeles、Xiamen Airlines’ Xiamen-Los Angeles。As “one country, one policy” continues to deepen,And effective control of overseas epidemics,International routes are expected to resume faster in the future，Recently, many domestic and foreign airlines have announced the resumption of new international routes,includes Air France、Singapore Scoot、Air Canada、Air New Zealand and others have added new round-trip routes to China。In addition，It is understood that my country’s vaccine research and development process is accelerating，The emergency use of the new coronavirus vaccine has been officially launched on July 22，The successful development of a vaccine may further boost demand for air travel and accelerate the recovery of the industry。Meanwhile，Another good news is that Beijing announced on September 2 that it will resume direct international commercial passenger flights to Beijing in a steady and orderly manner from September 3。Civil aviation expert Qi Qi said，Beijing gradually resumes direct international flights，Proof that my country has adopted the implementation of the "Five Ones" policy and the operation of the international flight circuit breaker and reward mechanism，A set of effective measures have been established 188bet app download to deal with imported cases caused by international flights，Ability to face the challenges that may arise from increased direct international flights。

The recovery of flights in Latin American countries was relatively slow in August

According to OAG data，The aviation industry in some Latin American countries was most severely affected by the epidemic in August，Its August capacity was only 41 in the same period last year.4%，To Ecuador、Panama、Peru、Latin American countries represented by Colombia and Argentina，Compared to the same period, it dropped by about 84%-94%，Among them, Argentina’s overall air transport capacity dropped by the most by 94.1%，Basically in a state of complete shutdown。

Chart: Monthly/weekly changes in scheduled flights in some countries from January to August 2020 compared with the same period last year Chart: Civil Aviation Resource Network Data source: OAG

Qiqi Analysis，The reason why Latin America is the region most severely affected by the epidemic，Also because it is an area with a relatively fragile economic foundation，The superposition of two factors directly led to a sharp decrease in its flight volume。East Asia, dominated by China, and North America, dominated by the United States, have relatively low declines，It is because of the large-scale resumption of domestic aviation。The largest declines are for international flights that rely more on external circulation，The smaller decreases are due to domestic flights that rely more on internal circulation。

Global recovery is not as good as expected and full-year revenue will decline

August，Many domestic and foreign airlines disclosed financial reports for the first half of 2020，The global aviation industry has suffered its worst blow in decades。First half of this year only，Light American Airlines、United Airlines、Delta Airlines、Southwest Airlines and the four U.S. airlines alone suffered a combined loss of US$14.8 billion。Among them, Southwest Airlines lost 10% in the first half.USD 0.9 billion，189 year-on-year decrease.45%，American Airlines net loss 43.USD 0.8 billion，Down 608 compared to the same period last year.62%，United Airlines lost $3.3 billion in the first half of this year，Delta Airlines suffered a net loss of 62% in the first half of the year.US$5.1 billion，Among them, the loss in the second quarter was as high as 57.USD 1.7 billion，496 year-on-year decrease.19%。my country’s four major airlines also released this year’s semi-annual report，China Southern lost 84% in the first half of the year.2.4 billion yuan，China Eastern Airlines lost 87.8.7 billion yuan，Air China lost 95.9.6 billion yuan，HNA lost 97.2.4 billion yuan。The four airlines lost more than 36.5 billion yuan in the first half of the year。However，Although most airlines still suffered losses in the second quarter，According to statistics, the entire industry suffered 188bet app an overall loss of 342 in the second quarter.500 million yuan，Loss reduced by 38% compared with the first quarter.500 million yuan，Three of the major airlines reduced their losses by 18% in the second quarter.4.3 billion yuan。my country’s airlines have also taken many measures during the epidemic，If the airline adjusts the fleet、Market、Human Resources、Comprehensive and refined management and control of industries, assets and liabilities，And work hard to make up for the marketing exposed by the epidemic、Customer Service、Flight operations、Transportation guarantee、it system、Weak points such as legal compliance，The airline also strengthens refined management，Carry out special activities such as lean cost control to adapt to the current market situation。

Also，Based on disclosed data，Some airlines in Asia Pacific have turned losses into profits。For example, Korean Air’s second quarter revenue 1.69 trillion won，Realized net profit of 148.5 billion won。Asiana Airlines’ second quarter revenue is 818.6 billion won，Operating profit 115.1 billion won，This is mainly due to the substantial increase in freight revenue。Korean and Asiana Airlines’ cargo revenue increased by 95% in the second quarter，reached 1 respectively.23 trillion won and 639.1 billion won。In addition，Domestic airline China Airlines releases interim report，Revenue 19 in the first half of 2020.8.4 billion yuan，Net profit attributable to parent company is 822.770,000 yuan。

Nevertheless，Asia-Pacific airlines mainly focusing on international flights，Still experiencing continuous performance losses。Singapore Airlines net loss 2.S$1.2 billion (approximately RMB 10.5.6 billion yuan)，This is the first full-year net loss in the company’s 48-year history，AirAsia first quarter net loss 13.2.8 billion yuan，Second quarter loss 16.4.1 billion yuan，Cathay Pacific half-year net loss 98.HKD 6.5 billion。

At the same time, airlines around the world that have been affected have resorted to layoffs in addition to layoffs、Except for last resort measures such as reducing flights，Some have even filed for bankruptcy or reorganization。According to incomplete statistics，So far, more than 20 airlines around the world have declared bankruptcy，Like Flybe、Altalia、Virgin Australia and more。And major airlines struggling to survive are still facing the pressure of huge losses。

Global airports are also not immune to the loss trend。Recently，Domestic listed airport groups have released their semi-annual reports，According to data，Beijing Capital、Shanghai Pudong、Guangzhou Baiyun、The four airports in Shenzhen Baoan achieved a total revenue of 80% in the first half of the year.8.7 billion 188bet app download yuan，Total net loss 14.4.3 billion yuan。According to the analysis of the U.S. airport forecast report released by Airports Council International (ACI) on April 29，Over the past twenty years，The debt burden of U.S. airports is increasing year by year，As of the end of fiscal year 2018，Commercial airports’ total outstanding debt approaches $100 billion。Debt repayments totaling approximately $16.6 billion over the next two years: regardless of changes in airport traffic or revenue，These debts must be paid unconditionally。With the decrease in the number of passengers，Total debt per aircraft will increase by nearly 79%。De Oliveira from Airports Council International，2/3 of the airports were losing money before the epidemic，Now all airports are losing money。If government subsidies to support tourism start to decrease，Some smaller airports may close。

According to the latest IATA forecast，Affected by the new coronavirus epidemic，Global air passenger demand may fall by 54% year-on-year in 2020.7%，Among them, the annual passenger demand in the Asia-Pacific region decreased by 53% year-on-year.8%，Full-year passenger demand in North America fell by 52% year-on-year.6%，Full-year passenger demand in Europe fell by 56% year-on-year.4%。IATA thinks even more，Estimated to 2022，Domestic air passenger demand will return to 2019 levels。Estimated to 2024，International air passenger demand will return to 2019 levels。

Picture: IATA forecast "Due to unavoidable factors，Profit margins in all regions have been severely hit. Net losses account for 15%~30% of total revenue》Data source: IATA

The British "Economist" magazine thinks，Air transport revenue this year will not grow by 4% as expected last year，On the contrary, it will drop by 50%，Falled to $419.9 billion。Based on calculations by consulting firm Aviation Strategy，After ten consecutive years of unusual profits，The air transport industry is expected to record a total loss of US$100 billion in the next two years，Equivalent to half of the industry’s net profits since World War II。

Outlook for the global aviation market in the fourth quarter

Qiqi expressed，As long as the epidemic does not break out again on a large scale，Air transport capacity in Q4 will increase globally，Especially in Asia Pacific，Passenger travel demand will increase around the resumption of work and production，Airlines also have the willingness and objective need to improve the supply side of transportation capacity。But，This will lead to an oversupply of air passenger transport，Except for international flights back home to escape the epidemic，The average fare of each route continues to be low。The truly sustainable recovery of air passenger demand also depends on the true establishment 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino of passenger travel confidence，The current observation can only be the successful development and large-scale vaccination of an effective vaccine against the new coronavirus。

Global Partner of Roland Berger Management Consulting、Vice President of China Yu Zhanfu thinks，A major uncertainty about the current global epidemic situation, including China’s, is，Autumn and winter are about to enter in the northern hemisphere，After the traditional peak season for influenza and other respiratory diseases，Will the new crown epidemic strike again，Thus parallel to influenza/respiratory illness，Even jointly acts on the human body。If such a superposition situation occurs，It will be possible for the current medical system to accurately identify disease types、Isolate in time、Classified treatment and medical staff、Medical Equipment、Bed resources and other links，Bringing a much more severe impact than the first half of 2020。It may also cause a rapid decline in travel demand，Thereby affecting the air transport industry again。

Of course we fully hope that this situation will not happen，But currently we can only make the most adequate plans，To cope with the more complex situations that autumn and winter may bring。What kind of recovery curve may the global aviation industry draw，It is necessary to go through a complete four-season change process during the new crown epidemic，The characteristics of the epidemic as well as treatment and prevention (currently ongoing vaccine development and safety/effectiveness clinical testing are very critical，But the exact result also requires a most basic time period to make a stable judgment) after the plan forms a more complete and profound understanding，In order to have a basis to present a higher degree of confidence in the prediction model。

*Source of this article：Civil Aviation Resource Network, author: Ding Yifan, original title:《China’s flights recovered the fastest in August, but the recovery of the global aviation market is not as good as expected and Q4 remains severe》.