There will be a big event in the world in the 21st century，It is the rapid rise of China’s economy，China’s current per capita GDP has reached 6,000 US dollars。

Grown at a rate of 10% per year，China’s per capita GDP will reach US$10,000 by 2020，The economic aggregate is close to that of the United States。If it grows at an average annual rate of 7% in the future，Per capita GDP will reach 20,000 US dollars in 2030，Although it is only 1/3 of the United States，But the economic aggregate has far exceeded that of the United States，Become the world’s largest economic power。

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People often say，China’s economic structure is seriously unbalanced，Manufacturing、Investment and exports account for too high a share of the economy，If you cannot transform in time，Economic development will be restricted。China’s investment ratio in exports and manufacturing is indeed the highest in the world，Latin American countries that are much higher than the same level of development。But，If China's manufacturing industry is now，If the ratio of investment and export is really the same as that of Latin American countries，Then the judgment on China’s economy is far less optimistic than it is now。Investment in the Chinese Economy、The high ratio of exports and manufacturing just illustrates the high potential of China’s economy。

The proportion of investment in GDP is determined by the savings rate，The savings rate is determined by the household savings rate、Government savings rate、Consists of corporate savings rate。China’s residents’ savings rate is relatively high，This is related to China’s relatively young population structure，The Chinese government is also a major investor，Because China still has a lot of infrastructure that needs to be improved，High-speed rail is under construction，The rail transit in many second-tier cities still requires huge investment。The investment demand in infrastructure also shows that China still has many investment opportunities。

High corporate savings rate，According to Global Entrepreneurship 188bet online sports betting Observer Statistics，Free funds used by Chinese entrepreneurs to start businesses，The highest in the world，The total amount is up to 11% of GDP。Chinese companies are willing to invest more of their profits into corporate development，This shows that there are high-return investment opportunities in China。This is not only from state-owned enterprises，It also comes from a large amount of private capital。This strongly proves that China is a hot land for investment。

China also has a high export ratio，Now the composition of export products has changed from the previous light textile products，Become high value-added electromechanical equipment products，If not like Huawei、ZTE、Enterprises like Sany Heavy Industry，The proportion of exports of value-added products in China’s economy will be much lower，Of course the potential for growth will be much lower，Therefore, China’s huge trade surplus is unsustainable。

So the inevitable result is，Or labor costs are rising，Either RMB appreciation，This has led to the gradual reduction of low value-added products in China’s exports。

China exports all manufacturing products，So the high proportion of manufacturing in the economy is largely due to the high proportion of exports。Whether it is rising labor costs or RMB appreciation，Both mean that China’s per capita income has a lot of room for growth，Of course, the premise is that Chinese enterprises continue to maintain strong vitality，Continue to absorb and catch up with advanced technology。

With the increase of income，People’s demand for service products will also become higher and higher。Travel、Finance、Medical care and education will naturally become hot spots for economic development。It is easier for the service industry to learn from the world’s advanced experience than the manufacturing industry，Not restricted by patents and core technologies，Not limited by resources and environment，Not dependent on the international market，As long as there is demand，The service industry is relatively easy to develop。Many Latin American countries，When manufacturing productivity slows down、When development encounters bottlenecks，The service industry developed naturally。And South Korea、The vitality of Taiwan’s manufacturing industry is much stronger，The proportion is much higher，The development bottleneck will come later。Now Latin American countries，Even some developed countries，Everyone is worried about the hollowing out of their manufacturing industry。

Once the manufacturing development bottleneck comes，Developing the service industry is a relatively easy task。Of course as income increases，The increase in the proportion of the service industry in the economy is inevitable，Just in time to absorb the large number of laborers who are currently withdrawing from low value-added manufacturing。

2.Why China can get rid of labor-intensive industries in 10 years?

China will abandon labor-intensive export industries within 10 years。This refers to clothing、Low value-added and low-skill industries such as shoemaking。China’s economy used to rely on the transfer of agricultural population to develop labor-intensive industries，But in 2010，China has finally exhausted its rural cheap labor force that was previously considered endless。

Comment 1

President Xi Jinping clearly mentioned it in his suggestions for the “13th Five-Year Plan”，“The proportion of the population under 14 years old is lower than the world average，The working-age population begins to absolutely decrease，This trend continues。These have posed new challenges to my country’s balanced population development and population security。”This expression reflects the new generation of leaders’ accurate judgment and profound understanding of the demographic situation。

What followed was a shortage of migrant workers and a rapid increase in labor costs。According to the laws of economic development，When per capita GDP reaches 10,000 US dollars，All countries will abandon these industries。South Korea and other Four Tigers 20-30 years ago，Thailand went through this stage 10 years ago。

When the per capita US dollar reaches 10,000 US dollars，China’s labor cost is that of low-income countries (like Indonesia、Pakistan) 5 times。Such a huge difference，It will lead to the transfer of these low-skill industries to these low-income countries，Although the investment environment in these countries，There are deficiencies in infrastructure and management talent，But it’s like China in 30 years，5 times cost difference，Enough to motivate Chinese companies or other multinational companies，Work hard to overcome these obstacles，Move the lowest end of the industrial chain to these countries。

It is the same as other countries，These people will be transferred to the service industry。It is estimated that the people engaged in these labor-intensive export processing industries now account for 10%-20% of the entire working population，China’s service industry will expand at least 10-20 percentage points in the overall economy in the next 10-20 years。

The proportion of service industry in China’s economy is now only 40%，Far lower than developed countries，Even lower than India, whose development level is far lower than China。

With the improvement of living standards，The proportion of the service industry will increase by at least 10-20 percentage points in the next ten years，Enough to absorb a large number of low-skilled workers who were originally engaged in labor-intensive industries。When nanny wages in China are 5 times that of Indonesian workers，China’s low-skilled workers will naturally choose to work in the service industry。

3. Can China cultivate world-class large enterprises?

The competition among enterprises is actually the competition for talents，When the per capita US dollar reaches 10,000 US dollars。China is already at a disadvantage compared to low-income countries in terms of low-skilled labor competitiveness。But at this time, China began to have a competitive advantage in mid- to high-end talents。At this time, the quantity and quality of China’s talents can be comparable to those in developed countries，And other business environments (such as market size，Infrastructure) is not inferior either，But the cost of high-tech talents is only 1/5 of that in the United States and Japan，1/3 of the Four Little Dragons，So it will have a comparative advantage in certain high-tech fields。

In fact, in recent years，Like Huawei，The reason why companies like ZTE can defeat multinational companies like Cisco，It takes advantage of China’s relatively cheap high-tech talents。With the same cost，Chinese companies can hire several times as many R&D talents as foreign companies，So some high-tech fields can quickly reach the world's advanced level。A large number of multinational companies also outsource relatively simple R&D projects to China。

Of course, Chinese companies are still far behind European, American and Japanese companies in the world，Especially on the brand。This is also very natural，Brand takes time to cultivate，This is why Chinese companies generally succeed first in equipment industries with hard targets，In the consumer goods industry, which needs more brands, it is still OEM for European, American and Japanese companies。But just to gain a place in these industries with relatively low brand requirements，It is enough to bring China to the level of South Korea 10 years ago，That is, the per capita GDP is about US$20,000。

A good brand needs time to be recognized，Taiwan、There is no global brand in Singapore yet。20 years ago，South Korea，There is no global brand company，Although the quality of Korean cars has reached the international advanced level，But it was only in the past ten years that it began to establish its credibility in the world market。

If after 30 years，Chinese companies can further establish consumer brands in the world that can be the same as European, American and Japanese companies，Then China’s per capita income will be closer to the level of developed countries，At that time, China’s economic aggregate will exceed that of all developed countries combined。This is not impossible，But all our future arguments，These are all conservative assumptions based on the assumption that China has reached the level of a moderately developed country (per capita US$20,000)，Without a more optimistic estimate that assumes China can approach the level of developed countries in 30 years。

4. Population aging is not a labor pain, but a long-term pain

China is growing faster than 188bet online sports betting South Korea and Taiwan at that time，Benefit from the very important effect of scale，Because China has the largest market，The largest talent market，Includes the largest commodity market，So we can gather more talents，The products developed through research can be used by more people。

Except for size，There is also the age structure effect，China’s current median age is over 30 years old，Under 40 years old，In a few years, China will be almost the same as Japan，At that time, most of the people in the company were in their 50s，What impact does this have on entrepreneurship and innovation?

First，Let’s not be pessimistic in the near future。The abscissa on the left is GDP per capita，The vertical axis is the index of innovation and entrepreneurship，The ability to innovate，The largest circle in China is above this line，Compared to developed countries, China’s innovation and entrepreneurship is still relatively weak，But compared to countries with the same level of development, China’s level of innovation and entrepreneurship is far ahead。With further industrial upgrading，China’s innovation and entrepreneurship will always be quite prosperous。Judging from China’s annual investment in R&D，China’s R&D population may now be the largest in the world，Possibly more than the United States，I estimate that the size of private equity funds has exceeded that of the United States。

But the number of young people who need to innovate and start businesses in the future will decrease sharply。Japan’s corporate innovation was still very good in the 1970s and 1980s，But in the 1990s, when the aging population was on the rise，The vitality of innovation has declined。In the past 20 to 30 years, almost no high-tech companies have developed in Japan。Why don’t Japanese start a business，Where have the young Japanese people gone，Japan’s 30-year-old entrepreneurs are not as energetic as 50-year-olds，I have done a lot of analysis and concluded that if the population ages, the vitality of innovation and entrepreneurship will decline，Countries with more young people have more innovations。

When will China reach this situation，Maybe five to ten years later。

The post-90s generation in China is 40% less than the post-80s generation，The post-80s generation is exactly 30 years old now，30 is the best age to start a business，When the post-90s generation comes to do it，That’s not the case，When the post-90s generation started their business，China’s overall population begins to decline，Demand begins to decrease，Their opportunities for promotion，Social resources in hand，The experience and abilities they get will not be as good as those born in the 1980s，Their vitality will decrease。

Comment 2

Based on 2010 Census data，Post-80s、1.9 billion、The population after 00 is 2.1.9 billion、1.8.8 billion、1.4.7 billion。188bet app download Less than a generation from the post-80s generation to the post-00s generation，The birth population shrank by 32%。The average fertility rate in the sample survey of the National Bureau of Statistics in the past five years was only 1.20。Even if the sample survey underestimates the fertility rate by 15%，The actual fertility rate is less than 1.4。This means every other generation，The number of births per year will decrease by 36.4%。

Even if fertility is fully liberalized immediately，Remove accumulation rebound factors，China’s natural fertility rate will also be far below the replacement level。

Economy cannot be used to judge investment，The key to investment is to compare with expectations。My judgment is，The vast majority of economists, including investors, have not yet realized that China’s future population will undergo huge changes，The performance of China’s economy in five years will still exceed expectations，Young people born in the 1980s are very energetic，China is still in a very good period of innovation。

The rate of aging in five years may exceed expectations，No matter what, there are two industries that are definitely promising，First, the health industry，The second is my tourism industry，No matter how old you are，As long as you are healthy，I will definitely spend money to travel。

Comment 3

Whether it is from resource endowment、Environmental protection、Urban Construction、Economic Development、Looking at technological innovation or civilization inheritance，Severely declining demographic trends will not do any good for China’s future，It is even more important to the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation。

The concept of population is changing rapidly，Policies will also change quickly，China will fully liberalize within five years，Expect it to be very good when you let it go，But you may be disappointed within five years after letting go，Because the fertility rate is not as high as expected，Young people give them a chance，No more babies。The number of births will continue to decline after a short rebound，The extreme aging and rapid shrinkage of the population are inevitable，The consequence is a long-term economic downturn、National power decline。