I thought when looking forward to 2019，The travel data bubble will burst，But things went counterproductive，188bet online sports betting data from various places are still running at a high level，Even higher。

2020，During a major epidemic，Hope that 188bet online sports betting data can return to its essence under multiple effects，Macro 188bet online sports betting research will also be possible to achieve high-quality results，I am also looking forward to it。Some things，We must use a more responsible attitude to explain to the industry，Also for the healthier development of the industry。

Traditional manual statistical methods based on statistical reporting and sampling surveys，There is an inaccurate estimate of the number of 188bet online sports betting、Inefficient statistical efficiency、It is common in statistics and data construction that "how to calculate" is not clear、No expectation of "when will it be sent"、Problems such as "who should respond" and lack of system。In the face of the new development environment and development model，Traditional methods are becoming increasingly difficult to cope with。

188bet online sports betting enterprises and 188bet online sports betting management departments adopt new statistical methods，Especially the enthusiasm and desire for the application of new technologies such as big data，Concern stemming from the lack of control over development。Due to the objectivity of big data，The credibility is much higher than that of the questionnaire，Incorporating it into 188bet online sports betting statistics is an inevitable trend of development。Not only that，The application of new technologies such as big data brings not only changes in methods，And it will bring about the reshaping of practice and cognitive models。Introducing new technical means，You cannot put old wine in new bottles，Simply apply the original statistical framework and statistical model；If it is not a systematic and comprehensive reform，Will bring about a series of conflicts and contradictions，Produces counterproductive effects。

When manual statistics were used in the past，Lack of objective basis。Now there is big data，Should provide more accurate statistical results。But，After the introduction of big data，However, there is a serious phenomenon of artificially high 188bet online sports betting statistics。Except the 188bet online sports betting department (actually，The 188bet online sports betting department itself has doubts) "believes" in these data，Rarely adopted by other government departments，Scholars also dare not use it as a research basis。

If you don’t correct your origins，If things continue like this，Not only will it have a negative impact on the social credibility of 188bet online sports betting statistics，Influence the local party committee and government’s macro-control and effective management of the 188bet online sports betting industry，It will also ruin the reputation of China’s 188bet online sports betting。

Revolving around four aspects，Let me share some opinions and suggestions on 188bet online sports betting statistics。

1. Questions about current domestic 188bet online sports betting data

Question 1: Why the number of domestic 188bet online sports betting cannot be added vertically，Horizontally incomparable"？

According to data released by the National 188bet online sports betting Administration，2016、The number of domestic tourists in 2017 reached 44.4 billion people and 50.1 billion people。This article collects and organizes data on the number of domestic tourists published by provincial administrative units in 2016 and 2017 (see Table 1)，It was found that the total data from various places reached 111.2.9 billion visitors and 130.7.5 billion people，2 exceeding the number of domestic tourists announced by the National 188bet online sports betting Administration.About 5 times。

Look at the specific provinces，Take the data of Guizhou Province and Guangdong Province in 2016 as an example。The number of domestic 188bet online sports betting in Guangdong Province in 2016 was 3.6.2 billion people，Guizhou Province reached 5 in the same period.3 billion people，More than Guangdong 1.700 million visitors，About 1 in Guangdong Province.5 times。2017 Guizhou 7.4.4 billion people，Guangdong 4.0.7 billion people，Difference 3.3.7 billion。As of the end of 2016，The permanent population of Guangdong Province at the end of the year was 109.99 million，The permanent population of Guizhou Province at the end of the year was only 35.55 million，About one-third of Guangdong’s population。

There seems to be a contradiction between the two sets of data，The population base of Guangdong is much larger than that of Guizhou，The level of economic development is much higher than that of Guizhou，Based on common sense，The number of domestic tourists in Guangdong should be greater than that in Guizhou，The published statistics are not like this。So inferred，Domestic 188bet online sports betting statistics should contain a lot of water。

Table 1: 31 provinces across the country、Autonomous Region、Number of domestic 188bet online sports betting in municipalities (2016、2017）

Data source: National Economic and Social Statistical Bulletins of various provinces and cities in 2016 and 2017；2017 Chongqing 188bet online sports betting Statistics Bulletin；2016 Tianjin Statistical Yearbook；2017 Shandong Province 188bet online sports betting Statistics Bulletin。The source of data for Guizhou Province in 2017 is NetEase News on February 7, 2018。

Question 2: The number of domestic 188bet online sports betting is contrary to common sense?

Aviation is usually the main mode of transportation for tourists from other provinces and cities to enter a certain province，Therefore, airport throughput data can be used to roughly estimate the size of 188bet online sports betting the province。Compare the ratio of airport throughput and domestic tourist arrivals in provincial capital cities across the country in 2017 (see Table 2，No data for Hohhot and Nanchang)，We found that the ratio was low in most areas，There are 22 regions with less than 30%，76% of the total。

Also，The relative size of airport throughput can roughly reflect the scale of 188bet online sports betting the province，But the number of domestic tourists in Guiyang in 2017 was 14836.590,000 people (this number does not distinguish between tourists within the province and 188bet online sports betting the province，If 188bet online sports betting the province account for 50%，more than 74 million)，Exceeding Kunming City，About 3 times the size of Guangzhou；The passenger throughput of Guiyang Longdongbao Airport during the same period was only 1810.960,000 people，Only 40% of Kunming Changshui Airport，27% of Guangzhou Baiyun Airport。These data are contrary to the common sense that aviation is the main mode of transportation for 188bet online sports betting the province。

Table 2: Number of domestic 188bet online sports betting and airport throughput in provincial capital cities across the country (2017)

Data source: The number of domestic 188bet online sports betting comes from the 2017 National Economic and Social Statistics Bulletin of each city；Airport throughput comes from the 2017 Civil Aviation Airport Production Statistical Bulletin of the Civil Aviation Administration of China。

Note: The areas marked with “-” are unpublished data.

二.How is the current number of domestic 188bet online sports betting counted: Unexplained number of people (person-day)

Quality of the above data，You can judge from common sense，Not very reliable。To policy makers、Manager、It doesn’t have much reference significance for investors。How do we calculate our visitor volume data？

Before using big data，The unit of measurement for our statistics is person-times，If a tourist visits 10 attractions in a destination，Been counted 10 times，Add accommodation and count again，1 tourist becomes 11 people；After using big data，If using mobile phone roaming data，The statistics are actually the number of people and days，Counted once a day。And if it is set to leave the place of residence for 6 hours、10 kilometers is counted as a tourist，The more it is a metropolis，The more locals commuting are counted as 188bet online sports betting，It is also possible that one person bringing two mobile phones will be counted as 2 188bet online sports betting。

actually，Accommodation registration of domestic overnight 188bet online sports betting is the most accurate statistics in the world，It is completely possible to publish an overnight visitor data，But this data is compared with the currently published data，Quantity too small，"Very ugly"，No destination is willing to be announced。

Also related to the number of tourists is the total 188bet online sports betting revenue。Guizhou announced that there were more than 700 million domestic tourists in 2017，At the same time, it was announced that total 188bet online sports betting revenue reached more than 711.6 billion yuan，The average consumption per person is about 1,000 yuan。Guizhou’s GDP in 2017 was only 1.354 billion yuan，Total 188bet online sports betting revenue (although total 188bet online sports betting revenue is not 188bet online sports betting added value，You can also make a rough comparison) Equivalent to 52 of GDP.55%。It seems unlikely based on common sense。

Why does this happen？Because we multiply the per capita consumption of the tourist sample survey by the number of people (it should be people，If a visitor is counted 10 times，The income is calculated 9 times more)，The tourist sample survey is more of a sample of tourists from outside the province，Their consumption is much greater than that of tourists from the province，So we have another extremely big figure like 188bet online sports betting revenue。

Why announce a decision that doesn’t mean much、The "astronomical 188bet online sports betting" of investment reference value，This is not the issue to be discussed in this article。This article discusses how to improve statistical work under existing big data technology。

3. Conceptual Analysis of Domestic Tourist Numbers—The “Absence” of Scale

1. Concept analysis of the number of domestic 188bet online sports betting

Retrospective "Travel"、Concepts such as “domestic tourists”，This article summarizes the World 188bet online sports betting Organization、Definition given by the National Bureau of Statistics and the "188bet online sports betting Geography" textbook，See Table 3。The current definition mainly focuses on tourists’ travel motivations and length of stay，But 188bet online sports betting activities are a spatial flow process from one place to another，It must involve the conversion of geographical scale，Existing definitions lack definition of geographical scale。

What is the boundary between the two “places” of origin and destination？There is no specific explanation in the previous concepts。The author thinks，Corresponds to the administrative division system of China，The scale transformation of domestic 188bet online sports betting is reflected in the four levels of "national-provincial-city-county"。

Table 3: Concept summary of “188bet online sports betting” and “domestic tourists”

2.The necessity of introducing the scale concept into 188bet online sports betting statistics—Estimating the number of domestic tourists at different geographical scales

So what significance does scale division have for the statistics of domestic tourist numbers？What results will be obtained from statistics at different geographical scales？Based on the above concept，The number of 188bet online sports betting should be counted as the number of people from outside a certain administrative boundary who enter the boundary to travel。for example，In provinces，Assume that people from other provinces travel to this province once per year，The maximum possible number of domestic 188bet online sports betting，The calculation formula is as shown in the figure below (1) Formula。

Suppose the population of a province is 40 million，Based on the total domestic population of 1.3 billion，Then the maximum possible number of interprovincial 188bet online sports betting in this province each year is 12.600 million，The total possible maximum number of interprovincial domestic 188bet online sports betting in the country’s 31 provincial-level administrative regions reached about 39 billion。

Similarly，End of 2016，There are 334 provincial-level administrative units in the country，Then take prefecture-level cities as the unit，Assume that people from other prefecture-level cities travel to this city once per year，The maximum theoretical value of domestic 188bet online sports betting in 334 prefecture-level cities will reach 432.9 billion (see equation 3)；There are 2851 county-level administrative units in the country，The possible maximum theoretical value of annual domestic 188bet online sports betting based on county-level cities is greater。

Note: (1) In the formula: k refers to the total population of the country，Xn refers to the population of each provincial administrative region。(3) In the formula: k refers to the total population of the country，yn refers to the population of each administrative region。

It can be seen from the above calculation，The statistical results of tourist arrivals at different scales will have great differences，further illustrates the importance of scaling in 188bet online sports betting statistics。

3. The practical significance of introducing scale concept into 188bet online sports betting statistics

(1) Hierarchical 188bet online sports betting statistical data has targeted guiding significance for 188bet online sports betting decision-making

Response to the first question raised at the beginning of the article，Currently domestic 188bet online sports betting statistics are based on the county level as the basic statistical unit，Summary through layer-by-layer reporting，Finally got the municipal level、Provincial overall statistics，From the national domestic tourist data released by the National 188bet online sports betting Administration in 2016 and 2017，National data should be obtained after making trade-offs based on provincial data，Less than the sum of all provinces in the country。But the results obtained by this statistical method，The reference value for 188bet online sports betting managers is yet to be discussed。

The essence of 188bet online sports betting is a form of product export，Local 188bet online sports betting consumption by outsiders，In order to truly reflect the economic contribution of 188bet online sports betting to the region。The national level should pay more attention to inbound 188bet online sports betting，In addition to paying attention to inbound 188bet online sports betting at the provincial level，Domestic 188bet online sports betting should mainly focus on inter-provincial 188bet online sports betting，Prefecture-level city level and county-level level, and so on。

When scale elements are added to the 188bet online sports betting statistical concept system，This problem can be easily solved。Four types of data at different scales: "national-provincial-city-county"，The statistical objects are also different。In terms of domestic 188bet online sports betting statistics，Governments at different levels pay attention to 188bet online sports betting statistics at different scales，So that we can make a correct assessment and judgment on the current status of 188bet online sports betting development in the jurisdiction。

(2) The introduction of scale concept can demonstrate the possibility of astronomical figures in local 188bet online sports betting statistics

Response to the second question raised at the beginning of the article，Through the simple calculation above，It can be seen that scale has a certain negative correlation with the number of 188bet online sports betting。For some popular tourist destinations，The smaller the scale，The number of domestic 188bet online sports betting may grow explosively。Because the smaller the scale，The smaller the corresponding geographical boundary range，More frequent interactions on both sides of the border；And there are more people outside the border，means more potential 188bet online sports betting。

四、Building a “province-city-county” domestic 188bet online sports betting data hierarchy system

In summary，The author believes that the statistics of domestic tourist numbers should be divided according to the "province-city-county" scale，Divided into three levels:

(1) Number of inter-provincial and domestic 188bet online sports betting: taking provincial boundaries as the boundary，Refers to the number of domestic 188bet online sports betting in other provinces other than the provincial administrative region。For example, the number of domestic 188bet online sports betting in Guangdong Province，Refers to the number of domestic 188bet online sports betting in the other 30 provincial-level administrative regions except Guangdong Province。

(2) Number of domestic tourists between cities: taking city boundaries as the boundary，Includes two categories: one is the number of tourists in the province outside the municipal administrative region；The second is the number of 188bet online sports betting the province。For example, the number of domestic tourists in Guangzhou，Including the number of tourists from 20 other prefecture-level cities in the province except Guangzhou City and the number of 188bet online sports betting Guangdong Province。

(3) Number of domestic tourists between counties: taking county boundaries as the boundary，Includes three categories: First, the number of tourists in the city outside the county-level administrative area；The second is the number of tourists in the province other than the city to which they belong；The third is the number of 188bet online sports betting the province。For example, the number of domestic tourists in Haizhu District, Guangzhou，Including the number of tourists in the other 10 districts in Guangzhou except Haizhu District、The number of tourists in 20 prefecture-level cities in Guangdong Province except Guangzhou City and the number of tourists outside Guangdong Province。

What needs to be explained is，The statistical number of people at the upper level does not include 188bet online sports betting flows within the lower level，Because the number of people counted at the upper level is not the cumulative sum of the number of people counted at the lower level。

When the country releases domestic 188bet online sports betting data，Can be released in different levels，Such as the number of domestic tourists between provinces，Domestic tourist volume between prefecture-level cities，Domestic tourist volume between counties。

The establishment of 188bet online sports betting big data centers in various provinces (including some prefecture-level cities)，At the technical level, the basis for tourist statistics on a geographical scale has been fully established。The key issue is the Ministry of Culture and 188bet online sports betting、The National Bureau of Statistics will study and determine new statistical caliber，188bet online sports betting statistics need a “revolution”。

5. Conclusion

There are some problems with current 188bet online sports betting statistics，Related to the lack of geographical scale definition of basic statistical concepts。To ensure the accuracy and authenticity of 188bet online sports betting statistics，There is an urgent need to introduce scale concept into 188bet online sports betting statistics，Establish a “province-city-county” domestic 188bet online sports betting statistical hierarchical system。

After confirming the statistics of tourists by geographical scale，From a technical perspective，Can count people and heaven，You can also count the number of overnight tourists, etc.。But no matter which indicator，All will be related to government departments、188bet online sports betting companies provide more targeted decision-making basis。

[Yishui Note] I have read two papers on 188bet online sports betting statistics published by Mr. Bao Jigang and his team，An article explaining the theory ("Some Thoughts on Introducing Scale Concept into 188bet online sports betting Statistics Work"，Travel Guide，2019 Issue 1)；The other article is about big data algorithms and case studies ("Research on Tourist Count Statistics from the Perspective of Big Data"，Travel Forum，2020 Issue 1)，Extremely researching skills and boxing heart。

Under the theme of high-quality development，Is it possible to dispel the myth of “big” data，True return to the essence of the value of big “data”。In fact，With "+Travel"、“Travel+”，The value of the industry is not only reflected in data。We would like to see，Disenchant the excessive interpretive value attached to data，Choose to travel light，Continue to move down-to-earth on the road full of youthful vigor。Otherwise，Once you are intoxicated with "big talk"，Often "doing small things" may not be so solid。

*Source of this article: WeChat publicNo. "Yishui Culture and 188bet online sports betting”（ID: T-newmedia），Author: Bao Jigang，Original title: "Professor Bao Jigang of Sun Yat-sen University: Some views and suggestions on the current 188bet online sports betting statistics work》.