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Ji Qi: Hotel investment 188bet mobile post-epidemic era (Part 1)

Author of 188bet mobile article: Ji Qi 2020-12-25 09:36:41

188bet mobile year’s content is divided into four parts: The World、江湖、Huazhu、Far away。

The original intention of Huazhu to host the World Congress，Gathering together with partners 188bet mobile ecological chain、Compare each other；It is an industry exchange，It is also a feast of thoughts。I often say that "metaphysical" determines "metaphysical"，Only when you have ideas can you do specific things well。

188bet mobile year’s World Congress is different from previous years，From the end of September to the beginning of December，We held five events in total: Guangzhou、Chengdu、Changsha、Beijing and Shanghai。Each session will invite an economist or financial observer to share their views on the macroeconomic situation，Among them Fan Gang、Li Daokui、Qin Shuo、Professor Xu Xiaonian and others are well-known economists and scholars in China。

As the keynote speech of each conference，As usual, I will share with you my observations and thoughts over the past year。188bet mobile year’s content is divided into four parts: The World、江湖、Huazhu、Far away。

天下

“The world today is undergoing major changes unseen in a century”，188bet mobile is a sentence I took from the "14th Five-Year Plan"。When I saw 188bet mobile sentence，The first reaction in my mind is to review what major things have happened in the past 100 years？

The Communist Party of China was founded in 1921；1929-1933 Economic Crisis and the Great Depression、Stock market plummeted，Unemployment rate explodes；The economic crisis may have intensified the conflicts，Various wars started from 1931 to 1945: China’s Anti-Japanese War (counting from the September 18th Incident)，World War II in Europe and the Pacific，The war of liberation follows，After that came the Korean War。Then learn from the painful experience，The world returns to calm，Capitalist countries 188bet mobile Western world，Includes parts of Asia Pacific，Especially Japan、South Korea，Entering the golden age of the economy。

After that, there were several local wars (Vietnam War、China and India、China-Soviet Union)，There are several other events that have a greater impact on China: the Cultural Revolution，I was born in 1966，That is the year the Cultural Revolution began。The Cultural Revolution had a great impact on China，It may have affected one generation or even several generations。Next is Deng Xiaoping’s reform and opening up、Establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States，Disintegration of the Soviet Union，To the competition between China and the United States in recent years and 188bet mobile year’s new crown epidemic。

So many things have happened 188bet mobile past 100 years，There is a crazy war、There is the establishment of a human social party、There is the disintegration of the country、Economic flute and prosperity。

“The world today is undergoing major changes unseen in a century”，Reviewing the major events of the past century，It allows us to have a deeper understanding of the meaning behind 188bet mobile sentence。Sometimes，A very small thing or person，It will trigger a big social event。188bet mobile time it is caused by an extremely small virus - the new coronavirus、Intensified many conflicts，Causing uproar around the world。

Professor Xu Xiaonian talked about the "Thucydides Trap" (Note: A newly rising power must challenge the existing power，And the existing major powers will inevitably respond to 188bet mobile threat。War is also one of the possible options for 188bet mobile kind of competition): Historically，Athens civilization is very brilliant，Spartans are very powerful，Both lose in the end。And now，The “mutual strife” between China and the United States，actually 08、Started in 2009，But 188bet mobile virus (and possibly Trump) has intensified the conflicts and stereotypes between the two countries。188bet mobile is also what is mentioned in the 14th Five-Year Plan，We are facing “big changes unseen in a century”。

In terms of expression，The world situation begins to shift from "multilateralism" to "unilateralism"。188bet mobile past, the United States was good to everyone，Now we only have good relations with those countries that speak English。

From globalization to national priority。In the past, we talked about “globalization”，The division of labor in the world is natural，But not today，Made masks together、All ventilators must be moved to China，The United States will also move its factories in China back to the country，188bet mobile is called “country first”。

From industrial trust to Internet oligarch。We knew oil 188bet mobile past、Steel、Various large trust companies such as automobiles，There are many such trading companies including Japan，Today it was taken by social media、Internet Company、E-commerce company，such as Amazon、facebook、Replaced by Internet oligarchs such as China’s Tencent and Ali，Due to the emergence of new technologies。

There are two important factors that affect human progress，First, changes in energy acquisition methods，The second is the change in the way of information dissemination。Steam engine is energy，Text、The Internet is information。Every change in energy or information pattern，will greatly change the course of human civilization and history。The Internet is a change in the way of information dissemination，188bet mobile change has just begun，The Internet bubble in 2000 is 20 years old 188bet mobile year，But to society、It has a huge impact on the entire world。

There is another sentence in the "14th Five-Year Plan": "The world has entered a period of turbulence and change"，188bet mobile is a good summary and summary of the "big changes unseen in a century"。

188bet mobile is the general trend of the world we are facing today。There are also several changes in the economy that deserve your attention:

1、Increased liquidity。World Bank data display，No matter the United States、China、Japan or the EU，They are all printing money in large quantities。Since capitalism began to develop，Increased liquidity of national government currency，The first is to stimulate investment，The second is to deal with various wars、Emergencies and natural disasters。Money liquidity is the solution to disasters for all countries、An important means to solve development problems。Everyone is printing money，It is easier for China’s new currency to enter real estate，The newly issued U.S. currency is more inclined to enter the stock market，The flow of new money 188bet mobile two markets is different，But overall the increase in liquidity is actually very good for investing。

2、The importance of consumption increases。Exports hit a new high 188bet mobile year，But it is too early to conclude that China has returned to the spring of exports。Because of the impact of the epidemic，Production capacity in other places has weakened、Supply chain weakened，Highlighting China’s strong supply capabilities，I think it is a temporary phenomenon。In the long run，China’s consumption begins to rise，The proportion in GDP is increasing year by year。Under such a macro situation, the country and the government proposed that domestic circulation should be the main focus，Domestic and international dual cycles promote each other。I think the focus is on the first half of the sentence "domestic circulation is the main focus"。

The above are the changes 188bet mobile domestic and international situation that we need to pay attention to.

江湖

“Jianghu” is my rather “Jianghu” term for the hotel industry。Changes in the international situation，Mapped to the hotel industry，That’s what I want to share in 188bet mobile part。

Regarding Jianghu, I have summarized several aspects:

Stress Test

The epidemic has indeed made people in our industry panic。After panic is anxiety，Anxiety is followed by positive coping。Whether 188bet mobile Huazhu or our colleagues，We are all actively responding，Everyone can sing and praise。

First, the single unit failed completely in 188bet mobile test。150,000 hotel stores closed in 2020，98% of them are independent hotels，Data from Ctrip。From December 31, 2019 to September 2020，The number of hotel IDs on Ctrip is 16 less.30,000，Just to be on the safe side，We use the number 150,000。188bet mobile includes temporary closures、Government requisition、Closed for renovation、Hotel changed by legal person，Most of them are forced to close due to the epidemic，At least temporarily closed。It’s October 2020，More than 90,000 new additions，Net decrease of 70,000。

But 188bet mobile does not change my conclusion: under the extreme stress test of the new crown epidemic，A huge proportion of independent hotels go bankrupt。The natural result is after the epidemic，Many independent hotels are considering renovation、Join，Toward chaining、Brand Transformation。

Second, international brands are in an embarrassing situation。Whether it is because of the confrontation between China and the United States or the rise of China，Chinese people’s enthusiasm for foreign brands started from worship and became more rational，The national trend in the field of consumer goods has fully verified 188bet mobile point。International navigation interruption caused by the epidemic，It also had an important impact on the source of customers。The best time for international brands，More than 60% of the hotel are foreign guests，A large number of them are Americans，The current ratio is almost zero。International hotel companies are facing an embarrassing situation in China。

Third, full-service hotels are passive，Because the place is bigger when there are more people，High energy consumption，The pressure is particularly high when business is bleak。Everyone is working hard to tide over the difficulties，One of the interesting cases is: a five-star hotel transformed into selling steamed buns during the epidemic。I also ate 188bet mobile bun a few days ago，Really delicious！188bet mobile innovative idea is very good，But a full-service hotel cannot continue to rely on selling steamed buns！

Fourth is the increase in the use of video conferencing。Some people say that since there is video conferencing，You can reduce business trips，We will not go on unnecessary business trips，Even a business trip will become an ultra-low frequency event。188bet mobile question aroused my thinking and deeper exploration。

I think，Definition of hotel，It is an accommodation unit when you are not at home。If people don’t need to sleep after leaving home，No need for a hotel。Is there such a possibility in 188bet mobile life？If humans could subtract 8 hours of sleep for one day，Extend actual life by 1/3，188bet mobile is great news。If because of such an invention，Huazhu needs to change careers，I will be very happy。

But the conclusion I came to is the opposite，Let’s take a look at some of my views on travel。If readers are interested，You can 188bet mobile refer to my article "In-depth Communication、In-depth reading、Deep thinking》。

188bet mobile

Is it possible that humans 188bet mobile be affected by the epidemic、No travel for video conferencing？Let’s first look at how today’s human beings came about。

I checked the history，It was the Great Migration from Africa that created modern humans。Almost 150,000 years ago，Our common ancestor Homo sapiens，Because of the climate，Coming out of the African grasslands。Homo sapiens left Africa，At the rate of one mile per year，Traveled around the world in 40,000-50,000 years，Complete coverage of the world，188bet mobile is the origin of modern humans。

Travel is necessary and necessary for human survival and reproduction，So my conclusion is-it is human nature to travel far，Nothing 188bet mobile world can stop mankind from traveling！We don’t need to be pessimistic，Should be full of confidence。

188bet mobile past few years，The growing tourist population in China and even the world，It also verified my point of view from another angle。

It is natural that 188bet mobile tourist population is growing rapidly。More money，The horizons are high，The inevitable result is more people traveling、Farther away。

Although there are many tourists，But our industry，Excluding aviation、Classic Ticket、Accommodation industry with catering and other income，The industry scale in 2019 is less than 1 trillion。In 188bet mobile，The automobile industry is 6 times larger than the accommodation industry，Real estate is 23 times，Commodity retail (including e-commerce) is 50 times。

Although China’s tourist population has been growing，But the hotel industry has been in the past 10 years、Basically on the verge of losing money in 20 or even 30 years。The picture below shows the profit margin of star-rated hotels，Put in a full-scale hotel，188bet mobile curve will move downward，Even a loss。

The industry is not big，188bet mobile are many people traveling，And more and more，But not making money，Why？

188bet mobile side

I came to the conclusion that there is a problem on the supply side of the hotel industry。Said 188bet mobile report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China，“Making improving the quality of the supply system the main direction”，Exceptionally well said，There are structural problems on the supply side of many industries in China。The specific performance 188bet mobile hotel industry is as follows:

1. Small scale

The average accommodation unit in China’s hotel industry is 25 rooms，And there are 93 hotels in the United States，Almost 4 times the average size of China。And all hotels in China including farmhouses，80% of hotels have less than 20 rooms，It’s hard to make money like 188bet mobile。There may be some exceptions for small boutique hotels，But the quantity is very small。

The room is small，means insufficient economies of scale，188bet mobile are no good managers、No good facilities。

2. Low 188bet mobile

Not only small in size，The chain rate of Chinese hotels is also very low，About 20%-25%，The United States is three times the size of 188bet mobile，Europe is twice as big as 188bet mobile。

3. Low floor efficiency

Many high-end hotels have very low floor efficiency。The average area of a room in a luxury hotel is 160 square meters，What is 188bet mobile concept？The price of commercial housing in Shanghai is about 100,000/square meter，The cost of building such a room is as high as 16 million，How many years will it take to earn it back？Almost 100 years！

4. Low human efficiency

The 188bet mobile’s occupancy/room ratio is generally higher。Especially high-end hotels have been alienated in all aspects，Become a face project，Become a vassal，Become a matching package。Blindly pursuing high、 big、Full，And most 188bet mobile products are similar，Especially the guest rooms。

5. Weak brand

The brands of most local hotels are still very weak。These 10 years、A local brand that has emerged 188bet mobile past 20 years，Only Hanting、Full season、Orange、Home Inn、Jinjiang Inn, etc.，Most of them are still 188bet mobile economy and mid-range markets，The high-end segment is almost blank。

Five 188bet mobile trends

Thinking from these phenomena and the travel mentioned above、Stress Test，I think there are five major trends in China’s hotel industry 188bet mobile future: First, from single entities to chains，The second is to move from full service to selection，The third is from star rating to brand。

The star rating is correct，China’s older generation of hoteliers，From Scattered、Unordered start，Use star rating，Use a unified standard-such as how much area、How many rooms per person、How many points will be awarded for each package、How many stars are attached，188bet mobile is very positive for the Chinese hotel industry，Nothing wrong。

But over the years，Despite repeated revisions to the star rating，I think it’s still outdated，Because consumers have changed，1000 consumers may have 100 ideas。Rigid standards cannot keep up with the flexible changes of customers，And brands can let a hundred flowers bloom，Colorful。188bet mobile past few years，More and more consumers follow brands and choose hotels instead of star ratings。

Judging from the operating data of several flagship brands of Huazhu，also fully reflects 188bet mobile point。

Comparing the RevPAR of Chinese star hotels 188bet mobile past 10 years，Hanting surpassed Samsung、Close to four stars，Exceeded four stars for the whole season，Crystal is close to five stars。The trend of stars being replaced by brands is clear at a glance。

The fourth trend is the rise of local brands。International brands are weakening，More and more local brands will rise。Whether it is patriotic enthusiasm、The decrease in international guests is still our confidence，Local 188bet mobile brands will accelerate their development in recent years，Growing like mushrooms after a rain。

The fifth trend is from real estate supporting facilities to investment tools。In the past, high-end hotels were annexes and supporting facilities of commercial real estate，I think 188bet mobile phenomenon will change，More and more people will use hotels as investment tools。Invest in hotels because you can make money，And it’s easy to make money。There will be a group of people in China who invest in hotels as a career，People who make a living and start a business for themselves，There will also be "second generation voters"。

I have traveled to many counties recently，Many investment formats have become fewer and fewer，Such as department stores, etc.。There are reasons for the progress of e-commerce，There are also factors of urbanization changes and changes in consumption habits。But hotels will become an investment tool for many people 188bet mobile future，Not for face and matching。

Eight 188bet mobile bonuses

Despite all the difficulties and challenges 188bet mobile hotel industry，We still want good things。Great people，Always those who smell the fragrance of spring flowers in winter，Those who see light 188bet mobile dark night。Let’s talk about things 188bet mobile industry that give us hope and light。I summarize it into eight major bonuses。

First, investment dividends。Whether it is an oversupply of properties or an epidemic、E-commerce impact，Many houses are vacant。I used to be in Shenzhen、It is difficult to rent a house in the city center in Shanghai，There are more opportunities now；188bet mobile shows that our rental costs may come down；Lot that was originally unavailable for rent，It may come out now。

The second is brand dividend。After 10 years、20 years of precipitation and exploration，China’s leading 188bet mobile companies have emerged。Branding、Chained hotels have stronger risk resistance and recovery capabilities。Follow the strong brands，Stronger profitability and risk resistance，Investment is more confident。

The picture below shows the comparison between Huazhu and the 188bet mobile average occupancy rate.

The third is internal circulation dividend。General Secretary Xi said that “China’s economic development is changing from relying too much on investment and exports 188bet mobile past to relying more on domestic demand, especially consumer demand”。

The so-called “domestic cycle”，The essence is consumption，That is what we often call “food, clothing, housing and transportation”，188bet mobile tourism industry, we often use “food, accommodation, travel, shopping and entertainment” to describe various elements of tourism。Vacation、Business trip、Meetings, etc. are all consumption，I believe the government will introduce many policies，To encourage consumption。For example, increasing paid holidays、Increase salary、Compulsory vacation, etc.，These are all benefits that drive our industry。

The fourth is liquidity dividend。Let’s look at three charts，The first chart is the US dollar, the main asset、Gold、Performance of bonds and stocks: is 0 after 22 years.USD 59；And China is 188bet mobile same cycle，The stock has become 10 to 12 times，1 yuan RMB turned into 0.37 yuan。

Look at the time span of 200 years，Only data from the United States: 1 US dollar becomes 5 cents，The stock is 1 million times，Bond is 1600 times，Gold is 3 times。188bet mobile is the difference caused by sufficient liquidity，And the gap will only get bigger。

Increased liquidity is good for our industry – whether 188bet mobile’s signing a lease or buying a property，All good things。So we try our best to sign a long lease，188bet mobile’s also very good to own property。

Let’s take a look at the following real case: a franchisee is in a county below Xuzhou, Jiangsu，Buy a house and join Hanting，Less than 10 188bet mobile，All funds have been withdrawn。Buying a property with an annual cash return of 10% is a good investment。

188bet mobile case is not an isolated case，There are many that I know of。Increased liquidity，It is a particularly good thing to be able to buy properties and invest in hotels in cities with suitable housing prices！Friends who make time for rent，Friends who let time invest，Reasonable leverage，Make full use of liquidity。

The fifth is urbanization dividend，I have been saying 188bet mobile for three years。China’s urbanization has passed the first stage，Initial urbanization，Now the second step of urbanization is divided into two processes: big cities are bigger，Active in small towns。We can see，Consumption in very remote counties is not low，Many people，The industry is booming，In 188bet mobile way, the process of urbanization will last longer。

High-speed rail、Highway、Aviation makes big cities bigger，Opened up the arteries of transportation，The next few years will still be an active period for infrastructure construction。Urbanization dividends must be good for the 188bet mobile industry，High Speed、Railway、The development of aviation has doubled the number of people traveling for business and leisure，More people will stay in hotels than before。

Sixth is the sinking dividend。188bet mobile distribution in China，The largest number is in third- and fourth-tier cities，The commercial format there is relatively thin，The rent is also cheaper。A lot of three、four、Fifth-tier cities，Whether buying or renting，Definitely more chance。

For example, a full season in a town in Zhejiang，Regarded as a fifth-tier city in China，Rent 0.95 yuan，RevPAR is 205，The payback period is easy to calculate (2-3 years)。Ibis in a county in Sichuan (third-tier city)，188bet mobile is a less developed place，0.Rent of 61 yuan，RevPAR is 187，About 2、The cash will be back in 3 years。There is a Hanting in a county in central Shanxi，Rent 0.4 yuan，RevPAR is 248，It is estimated that the investment can be returned within the same year。

There are many counties and small towns in 188bet mobile，Go to "Knowing Gold with Wisdom Eyes"，Huazhu provides you with brand and system support，Good service。But in these low-tier cities，It is necessary to plan the layout well，Can’t just break up，There must be protection for opening a store。Depending on quantity，Relying on Guangwo’s network，By full penetration，Rather than clustering together in a certain city。

The seventh is China’s demographic dividend，China is currently the most populous country in the world。These people come from cheap labor，Become a new force in consumption，188bet mobile is what we call demographic dividend，188bet mobile bonus still exists。I’m going to make a mobile phone today，Part of the production capacity may be transferred to Vietnam，But it’s the right time to be a hotel。

Hotels have changed from a luxury product to a public necessity，The 188bet mobile’s potential customer base is neither 400 million nor 600 million，But 400 million + 1 billion，It is 1.4 billion Chinese people。

China has two markets，A middle-income market of 400 million，The other is a mass market of 1 billion。The picture below shows the distribution of 188bet mobile population by economic class。

China’s demographic dividend is huge: there are 800 million smartphone users，More than 1 billion devices；Express delivery exceeded 50 billion last year，The number may be even higher due to the epidemic 188bet mobile year。

General Secretary Xi said，“China’s expanding domestic demand and consumer market，Will release huge demand and consumption power”。The “supply-side structural reform” proposed in previous years，The “double cycle” proposed 188bet mobile year，The rhythm is very good！Only when the top and bottom share the same desire can a country move forward，Talent is prosperous。China is the world’s largest consumer market，Exceptionally lucky for our group。

The eighth is growth dividend。China’s household consumption ratio is less than half that of the United States，Big room for consumption growth；800 million people in China have never been to Tiananmen，One billion people have never taken the high-speed rail，12.600 million people have never been abroad，Great potential；The current 188bet mobile chain rate is low，Great potential。

Therefore，China is also the most potential market 188bet mobile world，We have many opportunities in hotel investment。As hotel practitioners，I was born at the right time！

Five 188bet mobile pits

But，Can’t believe 188bet mobile is so much good news，You can invest simply and crudely。We must pay attention to the "five major pitfalls" that we should be careful about when investing in hotels。Everyone should avoid these traps。

First, loan sharking。Debt 188bet mobile investment with interest rate above 15%，It must be wrong。You cannot borrow money from relatives for investment，Favors are more expensive than loan sharks。

The second is high rent。The original rent may be 1.5 yuan，Eager to grab property，Rent for 2 yuan，The pure profits 188bet mobile be given to others。Generally speaking，The rent-to-sale ratio of budget hotels should not exceed 35%，Do not exceed 40% for mid-range models。

The third is high risk。Urbanization 188bet mobile past two years has caused almost all cities to develop new districts，But many cities simply do not have the economic strength to build infrastructure，These new districts can sometimes take up to 5 years、10 years to develop，For example, a development zone with a single source of customers，And some new concept areas, etc.。There are still non-compliant properties，Residence in previous years、Education can open a hotel，Today is more difficult。These are risks to be avoided。

Fourth is high investment。If you have money，I want to spend money to build a luxury hotel，188bet mobile is feeling，Not an investment。As shown in the picture，Correspondence between hotel grade distribution and population distribution in China，affordable type、Economic type、Comfortable、High-end type、Luxury type。There will be more mid-range products in the future，The affordable model will be less than the picture，But a budget hotel is not bad。The so-called supply-side structural reform is to adjust the investment layout according to customer distribution and income structure。

Finally, low replacement cost。When a city or region，There are many properties that can be used as hotels，The rent is not expensive，That’s what I call “low replacement cost”。Especially those that are originally more difficult to enter，A city where the relationship between supply and demand suddenly changes...you have to be especially careful，188bet mobile may be what I mean by “low replacement cost”。A large amount of new homogeneous supply in a short period of time，Will inevitably affect income。

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