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The statistics are wrong, or the traditional perception of tourism has changed

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Yan Xiangjun2022-04-26

Behind the tourism statistics for the first quarter of 2022.
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On April 18, 2022, the Finance Department of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism released the "Domestic Tourism Data Situation in the First Quarter of 2022":

Based on the statistical results of domestic tourism sampling survey,First quarter of 2022,Total number of domestic tourists 8.3 billion,1 less than the same period last year.9.4 billion,Down 19.0%。Among them,Urban residents’ tourist visits 6.2.1 billion,Down 11.4%;Rural residents’ tourist visits 2.0.9 billion,Down by 35.3%。

Domestic tourism revenue (total tourism consumption) 0.77 trillion yuan,Increase by 0 over the same period last year.03 trillion yuan,Growth 4.0%。Among them,Urban residents’ tourism consumption 0.62 trillion yuan,Growth 9.4%;Rural residents’ tourism consumption 0.14 trillion yuan,Down 14.5%。

As expected,Industry friends and self-media have raised questions: Under the pressure of the new crown epidemic,Where are the tourist activities??!How can the total number of tourists be as high as 8.300 million visitors?!Conceivable,The tourism operators trapped in Chou City will be very angry when they see these data,Full of many questions,Most of the results of these questions and doubts are echoes in the void,It just exaggerates the current pessimistic atmosphere of the tourism industry。You might as well calm down,Follow this question,Explore the answers behind。

Does not appear in large numbers in traditional scenic spots and star-rated hotels,8.Where did the 300 million tourists go?

To illustrate the problem,Let’s talk about the statistical definition of domestic tourists: Domestic tourists do not seek careers、For the purpose of getting reward,Removal from usual living environment,Visit other places in the country、Tour、Vacation and other travel activities (including visiting relatives、Recuperation、Inspection、Attend meetings and engage in business、Technology、Culture、Education、Tourism activities during religious activities),Travel distance exceeds 10 kilometers,Travel time exceeds 6 hours,Residents of mainland my country but not more than 12 months。Please note the &ldquo in the definition;Travel distance exceeds 10 kilometers,Travel time exceeds 6 hours”。

188bet sports betting app download Look now,No matter how big the disaster is, it can’t stop people from going to“10 kilometers”outside“Far away”’s footsteps,That is what I have longed for since the time of Confucius“Bathing in the Yi River,Blowing the wind on the dance platform,Then go home singing (Bathing in Yi,Feng Hu Wu Yu,Song and return)”life,All we need is a tent for camping。Although these tourists who meet the definition of tourism statistics do not flock to scenic spots,But they are everywhere in ski resorts、Leisure and commercial area、Rural fields、Beaches, lakesides and even suburban forests, reservoirs, dams, etc.。

actually,Before the COVID-19 epidemic, the number of tourists from nearby areas in tourism statistics was already huge。For example,Analysis from the perspective of destination tourist identity,The proportion of domestic tourists in Shandong Province accounted for 48% of the province’s total tourism reception in 2008.1%,It has been rising year by year since then,The proportion will reach 68 by 2020.9%,Just these data“Drown”It’s just that the destination is crowded with people。One more thing to note,This part is called peripheral tour、The increase or decrease in the total number of tourists traveling within the province and one-day tours is not reflected in the civil aviation passenger transport or even high-speed rail passenger transport data,The data performance on the online travel platform is also not obvious。

Visiting Pattaya, Thailand during the year is a trip abroad,Every week to“10 kilometers”Go outside“Blow air”It’s a lifestyle。Both are tourism activities。

Travel agencies and other tourism companies are losing money,And domestic tourism revenue (total tourism consumption) 0.77 trillion yuan,How is it possible?!

Here is a quote from a market rectification case announced by the Ministry of Culture and Tourism in June 2021: The party involved, Zhang Moumou, was in the process of marketing cookware for a Jiangxi Industrial Co., Ltd.,At the price of 100 yuan per person,Recruiting 77 elderly tourists in a village in Hai'an City, Jiangsu Province,Organized Jiangsu Rugao“One-day tour”,Organize tourists to participate in cooking utensils marketing activities during the period,Some tourists purchased cooking utensils、Health products and other commodities。When the party concerned does not have the qualifications of a travel agency business,Solicitation、Organization、Receiving tourists,Provide travel services,operating travel agency business 188bet sports betting app download without permission。Based on the provisions of Article 95, Paragraph 1 of the Tourism Law of the People's Republic of China,The Culture, Radio, Television and Tourism Bureau of Hai'an City, Jiangsu Province orders the parties concerned to correct their illegal acts in accordance with the law,And impose an administrative penalty of 10,000 yuan。

A layman’s explanation for this case is that he was a man selling pots and pans in Jiangxi Province,Organized 77 elderly people from a village in Jiangsu Province to go to another city in Jiangsu Province“One-day tour”,Also sold pots and pans,Also received 100 yuan per person。Think about it calmly,This should count to 8.Within 300 million people,Spending a lot at the same time,Not organized by a travel agency,But this is a real group tour。Nothing more,It came out in a different form。For more cases, please refer to "Looking at negative cases to find positive inspiration for the tourism market",It will be clearer how tourists spend money during the new crown epidemic,Understand how to make money from traveling now。

Please note that &ldquo in the Ministry of Culture and Tourism data report;Based on the statistical results of domestic tourism sampling survey”,This is a household sampling survey of urban and rural residents commissioned by the Ministry of Culture and Tourism to be carried out by a professional agency in tourist source areas,Say more,If you fabricate and exaggerate data for a large number of sample questionnaires, it will be a lot of work,Unnecessary and extremely difficult to achieve。Also,Please also note“Domestic tourism revenue”The last “Total tourism consumption”Comment,That is to say, in the household survey, urban and rural residents are asked about the entire travel itinerary and preparations before departure“Cost”How much money,Tourist's“Cost”Theoretically equal to“Tourism revenue”。If the visitor spends,And traditional tourism operators feel that they have no income,Then the channels and directions in which tourists spend money must have changed,Similar to the above case。

The total number of domestic tourist arrivals in the first quarter of 2022 dropped by 19% compared with the same period last year.0%?Is this data conservative??

Many industries are concerned about the evening of October 31, 2021“Nucleic acid testing under Disney fireworks”The scene is still fresh in my memory,Think this may be the tourism industry that normalizes epidemic prevention。Only less than half a year,Shanghai’s epidemic prevention and control is now difficult to describe,188bet online sports betting Disney fireworks are like another world。This is the illusion brought to us by time and scene。

The great trouble caused by the new coronavirus epidemic in Shanghai and Jilin, one in the south and one in the north,A batch of“Static management”City blocks travel,These have greatly affected the industry’s expectations and confidence in the development of the tourism industry。Generally speaking,The focus of the tourism industry in the first quarter is the Spring Festival Golden Week and New Year’s Day holidays,Looking back at China 1、The COVID-19 epidemic was still at its lowest point in February,It was not until around mid-March that large-scale outbreaks occurred in a few areas,Basically no impact on the Spring Golden Week tourism activities。

Even if understood in terms of traditional tourism,Let’s take a look at the 310th press conference on the prevention and control of the new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic in Beijing on April 22, 2022,Announced the trajectory of a confirmed case of new coronavirus pneumonia in Chaoyang District:

April 18,9:50-9:55 Shopping in the store downstairs,17:35-17:45 Shopping in the store downstairs。

April 19,Take the tour bus to Baiquan Mountain Scenic Area in Huairou District at 7:50,Return home at 17:00。

April 20,Take the tour bus to Jinshan Scenic Area and Hudong Water Scenic Area in Pinggu District at 7:00,Return home at 15:00。

This guy conducted 2 tourism activities that met the statistical definition in just two days,Still traveling around the area。Travel is not just about going abroad、Long-distance travel across provinces,Also from Chaoyang District to Huairou District、To Pinggu District,It is an ordinary day for ordinary people。Of course,If you insist on arguing that this kind of inter-city travel should not be included in the number of tourists,Then we have to say: Pinggu District was Pinggu County before 2002,is a county-level city;Before, it belonged to Tangshan, Hebei Province,At that time, this was a typical inter-provincial trip。

The concept of tourist destinations cannot stay in the era when Confucius traveled around the world,The rise of self-driving travel,Judging from destination data, it has exceeded 50% of the total number of tourists,Travel autonomy、The characteristics of freedom and no scenic spots are becoming more and more obvious。When you drive to the mountain, you will definitely see the scenery,This“view”Not necessarily a scenic spot。

Individual feelings cannot replace macroscopic data,The feelings of some people cannot replace the huge domestic tourism market,The traditional perception of the tourism market has changed、Adjustment 188bet app and Change,The changes had already begun before the COVID-19 epidemic。

Domestic tourism revenue increased by 4% compared with the same period last year.0%,The number of visitors has dropped,Why has the income increased?

An industry consensus is,Since 2020, domestic tourism will mainly focus on short-distance travel such as peripheral tours,That is to say, this will be the case in the first quarter of 2021,Same in the first quarter of 2022,There is no more outbound travel abroad、Data interference during long-distance travel across provinces。

A piece of data that is often overlooked is,In recent years,Shopping accounts for about 25% of domestic travel expenses,Food and beverage expenses are about 20%,The two account for almost 45% of the total expenditure。One of the characteristics of short-distance tourism consumption such as peripheral travel is local life,That is, the localization of tourism consumption in other places。

National Bureau of Statistics data display,First quarter of 2022,Total retail sales of consumer goods 10,865.9 billion yuan,YoY growth of 3.3%;Among them, catering revenue is 1,065.3 billion yuan,Increase 0.5%。

Look at it this way,Tourism consumption growth 4.0% is easy to understand。Of course,The industry’s doubts are also justified and supported by data: the same data from the National Bureau of Statistics,The total retail sales of consumer goods in March was 3,423.3 billion yuan,Decreased by 3 year-on-year.5%;Catering revenue 293.5 billion yuan,Down 16.4%,However, its absolute volume only accounts for 27 in the first quarter.5%。The reason for the decline is well known,But the data and feelings in March cannot be used to replace the entire first quarter。

Extend it,Talk about things other than tourism data in the first quarter of 2022。

Domestic tourism statistics do have room for improvement。April 6, 2022,The data released by the China Tourism Academy is: Domestic tourism travel nationwide is expected to be 9 in the first quarter.7.3 billion people、Domestic tourism revenue 640 billion yuan,Decreases of 5% and 13% respectively compared with the first quarter of 2021。This may be the result of different data investigation methods and statistical caliber processing methods,However, the data gap is obvious。Professional discussion on professional issues,There is indeed room for improvement in national-level data。

Relief measures for tourism market entities need to be optimized。On one side is the vast hinterland of the tourism market、Huge tourism consumer group and acceptable tourism market consumption performance,On one side are tourism companies in urgent need of help。Recently, governments at all levels from the 188bet sports betting app download central to local governments have introduced a number of relief measures,However, some companies feel that water cannot quench their thirst or they are unable to quench their thirst。An optimization idea for the relief and problem-solving measures of governments at all levels is: docking0.77 trillion yuan tourism consumption market,Helping tourism companies improve their sense of market gain。For example,Many places encourage government agencies, enterprises and institutions to organize trade union activities that comply with regulations、Plan formulation for exhibition activities, etc.、Leave the organization and coordination to the travel agency;Encourage travel agencies to carry out research and practice education services;Organize the issuance of travel vouchers, etc.。if,Productize consumer coupons based on the product characteristics of peripheral travel,Classified as study voucher、Union activity consumption coupons, etc.,Specified consumption-oriented relief targets;Change the method of issuing coupons at the same time,Changed from centralized distribution on online platforms to distributed channels or community distribution。The optimization direction of the body’s relief measures is marketization。

The tourism market after the first quarter of 2022。Since 2020,The policy statement most familiar to the tourism industry is: suspending travel agencies and online travel companies from operating inter-provincial group tours and ";Air tickets + hotel”Business。A long time in the future,The operating space and&ldquo of the domestic tourism market;Inter-provincial group travel”and“Air tickets + hotel”Nothing to do with other simple organization products。The May Day holiday in 2022 is“Five or six winners (adults)”Golden Week of Outing,No“Six or seven boys”Traveling together,From colleges and universities to primary and secondary schools, they have begun to consider moving the May Day holiday to the summer。You can consider the summer market,Note that the summer vacation in 2022 has been advanced (some as long as one month),The product type should be adjusted accordingly。

The source of this article is Zhihui, and the copyright belongs to the original author.

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