Conjecture 1: Differences in operating levels across regions intensify the Matthew effect

Performance: The strong in first-tier cities become stronger、The weak 188bet game central and western regions become weaker，The rising continues to rise、The declining polarization will continue to decline。

Take the revenue per available room (RvePAR) of InterContinental 188bet game in the third quarter of 2016 as an example: the world was averaged by Greater China: the world rose 1.3%，Greater China up 0.9%；Mainland is averaged by Macau: Mainland rises by 2.2% by Macau, down by 14% on average, up by 0 for Greater China.9%；First-tier cities were averaged by the mainland: first-tier cities increased by nearly 6%, while most areas in the mainland experienced negative growth, and the average was increased by 2% in the mainland.2%。

Two major factors affecting the operation of China’s hotel 188bet game in recent years，First, the relationship between supply and demand、The second factor is the factors that started to inhibit official consumption in December 2012。The transformation of Beijing’s business structure, which used to have a large proportion of official consumption, has been completed，17 consecutive months of year-on-year increase，It indicates that the factors inhibiting official consumption have been digested；In addition to the completion of the transformation of business structure in Shanghai，The relationship between supply and demand has been improved，Year-on-year increase for 37 consecutive months，It shows that the supply and demand relationship of the hotel 188bet game in China's first-tier cities has been improved and the operation is the first to pick up，The operating conditions of the hotel 188bet game in areas outside first-tier cities are determined by the supply and demand relationships that vary from place to place。

Beijing hotel operation exceeds the level before the eight regulations，In November 2016, Beijing’s hotel 188bet game increased year-on-year for 17 consecutive months；Exceeding the November level before the eight regulations on official consumption were promulgated on December 4, 2012。The year-on-year comparisons between November 2016 and November 2012 after adjusting for VAT factors are:

60 five-star 188bet game 841.05 yuan-3.70%、70.00%+6.38%、588.74 yuan + 2.44%，

125 four-star 188bet game 510.97 yuan +1.67%、68.60%+4.26%、350.53 yuan +5.99%，

189 three-star 188bet game 408.48 yuan+5.99%、59.20%+4.78%、241.82 yuan +11.05%，

132 two-star 188bet game 287.40 yuan+18.56%、53.70%-6.45%、154.33 yuan +10.92%。

Revenue per available room of Shanghai's five-star 188bet game in the 70 months from January 2011 to October 2016 increased by 40% and decreased by 30% year-on-year，The latest 37 consecutive months of year-on-year increase。Shanghai’s five-star RevPAR has risen for 37 consecutive months，But it’s still 67 10 years ago.16%。The RevPAR of 67 five-star 188bet game in Shanghai after adjusting for VAT in October 2016 was 806.29 yuan，is 1200 in 2006.50 yuan of 67.16%。The average house price of 26 five-star 188bet game in Shanghai in 2006 was 1,715 yuan，Average occupancy rate 70%，RevPAR is 1200.50 yuan、More than Singapore。

Conjecture 2: The relationship between supply and demand has been improved

The performance is as follows: capacity expansion and high-endization are suppressed.

138 five-star 188bet game nationwide were announced in the four years from 2013 to 2016、97 approved、67 canceled。where，88 companies announced in 2013、59 approved；25 companies announced in 2014、16 approved、23 canceled；14 companies announced in 2015、13 approved、15 canceled；11 companies announced in 2016、Approved 9 companies、29 canceled。

2017，The supply and demand relationship in the hotel 188bet game nationwide will be further improved。

Conjecture 3: Breakthrough progress in technological progress

Performance: 188bet game with robot-assisted services during the year，Virtual reality technology VR、Augmented reality technology AR begins to be used in 188bet game。

A series of robots appear in the 188bet game，The first robot functions are: welcome、Self check-in、Send items to the guest room、Item Management、Room Butler。

The 188bet game is committed to improving the level of software, hardware and management、Reduce labor and energy costs。Labor costs account for 30% to 35% of 188bet game operating costs，It is imperative to reduce labor costs。Robots are an auxiliary part of 188bet game services，Mainly relying on the improvement of employee service levels。

September 22, 2016，2016 National Cyber ​​Security Awareness Week and Rule of Law Day Revealed，At present, the Ministry of Public Security has developed an "online copy of ID card" that uniquely corresponds to the physical ID card，Stay in a 188bet game from now on、If you need to swipe your ID card to open a securities account, you can swipe your face directly。

188bet game labor、The energy consumption cost ranks first among hotels、The second largest cost。June 16, 2016，The standard for the Internet of Things has been born，China’s major Internet companies have listed the Internet of Things as the most important field in 2017。With the development of the Internet of Things，Guest room energy-saving systems will become popular。

Conjecture 4: Reform 188bet game organizations from the bottom up

Performed by: 188bet game organizations becoming official、Semi-official shift to trade associations organized by 188bet game owners themselves。

"Several Opinions of the General Office of the State Council on Accelerating the Reform and Development of 188bet game Associations and Chambers of Commerce" (Guobanfa [2007] No. 36)，To expand the functions of 188bet game associations、Promote the reform of the management system of 188bet game associations、Strengthen the construction of 188bet game associations、Proposed clear requirements for improving support policies and other aspects。The "Opinions of the State Council on Accelerating the Development of Tourism 188bet game" even clarifies the timetable for the reform of tourism 188bet game associations: "Within five years，The personnel and financial relationships of tourism 188bet game associations at all levels must be decoupled from tourism administration and other departments。”

Early Year of the Republic of China，A few inns in Shanghai are designed to cope with various circumstances，Spontaneous organization Shanghai Hotel 188bet game Office，Become the earliest peer organization。1925，In the French Concession，Some inns organized and established the Dharma Realm Inn 188bet game Federation，Register with the French Consulate。Currently，The banking 188bet game in Shanghai already has a trade association。

The ultimate goal of the hotel 188bet game organization is the 188bet game association，The only way to solve the problem of oversupply and brutal competition is also the trade association。China’s hotel 188bet game needs an 188bet game association that sets entry thresholds and game rules，The organization can be divided into the chamber of commerce facing the owners and the association facing the management enterprises。

The transition period before the guild，Local governments should inform the total number of guests and the actual number of guests in the accommodation 188bet game，Approval intervention based on commercial carrying capacity，Or a hearing，Set restrictions for underachievers，To ensure effective control of supply and demand，Ensuring the long-term, sustainable and healthy development of China’s hotel 188bet game。

Conjecture 5: Reform the management system

Performed by: gradually unifying the management of the accommodation 188bet game.

China’s accommodation 188bet game does not have 188bet game-wide management，Take the minimum 188bet game name as an example，National Tourism Administration、The Ministry of Commerce calls the hotel；Referred to as a hotel in the securities 188bet game (adopting Hong Kong’s naming convention，Some rooms are hotels、No guest rooms are restaurants)；Statistics Bureau calls hotel；Government documents say hotel。The future trend is to unify the 188bet game name as the accommodation 188bet game based on the guest room，Can be further subdivided under the accommodation 188bet game，Unified statistics。

The current legal disputes in the accommodation 188bet game in my country，Mostly in accordance with the "General Principles of Civil Law"、"Contract Law"、"Company Law"、Consumer Rights Protection Act and other civil legal treatments。Japan、Singapore、France and other countries have promulgated special laws，The Hong Kong region of my country has also promulgated the "Hong Kong Hotels and Guesthouses Act" and the "Hotel Proprietors Ordinance"，Taiwan issued the "Tourist Hotel 188bet game Management Rules"。

In terms of specific regulations，Take grade assessment as an example，The current stipulation that every room in a five-star 188bet game must be equipped with a bathtub is inconsistent with the actual market situation、It is not conducive to green and low carbon；Three platinum five-star hotels across the country have become lifelong since they were awarded stars in 2006，Now there are many hotels with more than these 3 in the country。

Conclusion:

The development trend of 188bet game operating level in 2017 depends on the continued improvement of the supply and demand relationship。The specific situation of supply and demand is: the "National Day" from 2006 to 2010.Five" period，China’s GDP average annual growth rate 11.7% creates miracles，But hotel supply created an even bigger miracle，Only star-rated hotels have an average annual growth rate of 12%，High-star hotels have an average annual growth rate of 17%。Due to hotel expansion, the construction period from hotel to opening is long，Changes in rational decision-making have a lag。

In terms of economic foundation，The hotel 188bet game will see breakthroughs in technological progress in 2017，The first batch of hotels to use robots，The Internet of Things plays an important role in energy saving and consumption reduction in the hotel 188bet game。

In terms of superstructure，188bet game organizations will undergo bottom-up reforms，188bet game management, including rating assessment, is gradually developing towards covering the entire 188bet game。

*Author of this article: Zhao Huanyan，Chief Knowledge Officer of Huamei Consulting Group、Senior Economist，Expert Author。