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Industrial Investment Author of this article: IDG Capital 2017-04-21
The content of this article comes from the speech sharing by Lou Jun, director of IDG Capital, at "2017 IDG VIEW" and the new e-commerce roundtable discussion。
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1. Mobile e-commerce under the new model;
2. Consumption upgrade for the middle class and pseudo-middle class;
3. The new lifestyle of the new generation of young people.

These three categories have spawned many start-up companies that are very popular in the market,Including sharing economy、Content payment、Tea drink brands, etc.。Consumption upgrade is also a very popular concept,But we found that everyone’s understanding of consumption upgrade is inconsistent。What exactly is consumption upgrade?More expensive to buy、Is the more fashionable thing the consumption upgrade??

Opportunities for incremental service consumption

We think,The fundamental of consumption upgrading is to improve the quality of life.When people’s income becomes more and more able to meet material needs,How will the remaining income be spent?Let’s take China、Horizontal comparison of household consumption in Japan and the United States,I found a very interesting thing:

As can be seen from the picture,More than 60% of China’s average annual household consumption is physical consumption,More than 30% is service consumption,Including culture and entertainment、Education、Medical、Travel、Life services and other services and experiential services,In comparison,The proportion of consumption in this part of the United States and Japan exceeds 60%,Only more than 30% of physical goods consumption,Just the opposite of China。

The meaning behind this phenomenon is,When a family gets closer to the middle class,Their money will be spent more on experiences,Instead of going from buying 40 clothes a year to 80 next year,What needs to be improved is the quality of life。Therefore,We believe that the increase in service consumption is an important general direction,When upgrading consumption, we should pay more attention to household consumption;If the general direction is wrong,Any business venture may become a small but beautiful thing。

Four key links in industrial upgrading

The second phenomenon-level word that we pay attention to is “new retail”。

In fact, new retail is very similar to the previous O2O,But the difference lies in the way of thinking between new retail and O2O。The value of O2O is that online subverts offline,188bet app The Internet subverts tradition,But judging from the results,Most startups do not succeed in this process。

The new term is called new retail,It’s more about the online transformation of offline,Or offline mobile Internetization,Essentially, mobile Internet is used as infrastructure to upgrade the industry。In this sense,I think there is no traditional industry,Only traditional thinking。

I summarized the four key links of industrial upgrading in the above picture:

Second step retention,Second step retention,The third step of realization,The fourth step of communication。

Drainage this link in PC、APP Era,Buy keywords、SEO or how to brush up the rankings;After the rise of WeChat, we saw that the new traffic drainage method focuses more on content。Especially through WeChat ID,Carry out low-cost traffic flow,At the same time, it can also segment people (dividing people into groups through different content,Each group has different user portraits),In this way, we can match the corresponding products,Conversion rate increased and customer acquisition cost lower than before。Continue,If you expand channels and scenarios offline,The scene will also play a very good role in attracting traffic and focusing the audience,Integrating mobile Internet thinking,You will see new ways of playing、Operation method。

The second link is retention。There is a misunderstanding here: how to improve retention?Is it using tools or adding functions to improve user stickiness?In fact, in our opinion, it is more content-oriented。

For example, picture sharing products。If the picture quality is not good enough,You won’t watch it at all,So the first thing is that the quality of the picture should be good,Secondly, upload new items every day as quickly as possible,In this way, users may open it and take a look every day,But if the new update is slower,Users will only open it once a week to take a look。Users want more than just this category,As ​​for new categories, it may be an e-commerce model with zero customer acquisition cost。

The third link is realization,The realization of these four steps can be considered later,Don’t have any imagination that violates the rules of the game。Xiong Xiaoge, founding partner of IDG Capital, said something,Wool always comes from the sheep。

The fourth step is a very big feature of the mobile Internet,Previously communication was considered to belong to the media field,But communication on the mobile Internet is becoming more and more important for products。You will find that some content with a low tone is very popular,Why?Because communication between people is more of a pain point than a bright spot,The strongest communication power is the fear of losing,instead of owning。

If the communication part is not done well,The only thing we can do next is continue to divert traffic,And when transaction costs become more and more expensive,This account cannot be settled,The company will become small and beautiful when it reaches a certain size,It can’t go up any more。In this sense,Communication is a part that should be paid more attention to on the mobile Internet。


*Look at this picture again

If we use scores to measure the four links,The first three are additions,Finally multiplication。The value of a product is 3 points if it attracts traffic,Keep 2 points,Realize 5 points,This product may add up to 10 points,Multiply 6 points of spread,This product is 60 points。There is one more thing to pay special attention to,Never wait until the product is ready,Think about how to spread it again,But when designing products,We need to incorporate communication。

2017 New E-commerce Investment Direction

First,Transfer of fashion products to consumer goods,In other words, it is the trend of “consumption downgrade”。Some items used to be a fashion item,Today people regard it more as a consumer product。Flowers used to be more of gifts,Not strictly necessary,Small but beautiful。But today many people order flowers for themselves,Users’ aspirations for consumer products are different from fashion products,More urgently needed,Pay more attention to cost performance and quality,So the gameplay is different for flower companies。

Second,When the improvement of spirit and thought becomes more and more necessary,There will be the rise of content payment,includes audio、Video、Knowledge、Books,But the form has changed - for example,Traditional books are for reading,Someone is reading to you now。

The third one isExperience and service consumption,It may be the next incremental market。The comparison table just now is just the tip of the iceberg,Zoom in to see what specific types of things will happen in China,For example, a rich person cannot find a good aunt,Good confinement nanny,Good nanny,Can’t find good decoration workers, etc.,Then there may be investment opportunities in these categories。
  

About new retail,IDG Capital Director Lou Jun,Han Wei, founder and CEO of Leke Fitness,Ding Yuting, Director of China Renaissance,There was a heated conversation between the three。Leke specializes in a 24-hour small gym with an area of ​​300 square meters,Retains the core functions of the gym,First recommended 99 yuan monthly card (Beijing/Shanghai 199 yuan),No promotion,Not limited to stores,Unlimited number of course reservations,Currently in Hangzhou、Beijing、More than 140 stores opened in Shanghai and other cities。

Ding Yuting, Director of China Renaissance:

I also look at consumption,I have seen some online projects including O2O before,But I always feel like something is missing。

For example,Companies often say that I want to serve a specific group of people,But think about it,They still separate online and offline。Segmented groups of online services,Whether it is Bai Fumei or mother,Other consumption and needs that occur offline are still isolated。Users must find a new brand or platform to meet their needs。

So I am quite excited now that we have finally reached this point,No matter online or offline,In the past, e-commerce companies wanted to seize offline share,Now the fusion has started。

Another keyword for new retail or new integration is “new”。The first is the new consumer group。Take clothes for example,People who have upgraded their consumption are more willing to express themselves,The brands that are worn all over the street are not so popular with them,This poses a new challenge to the brand,Depositing money one year in advance becomes unrealistic,It is increasingly difficult for a brand to cover the needs of multiple groups of people。This is the change in the consumer population。

Second,China is not a country that lacks supplies,But a big manufacturing country,The world is made in China,But there is still a lack of layering in the brand。For example, the rise of Internet celebrities,One of the reasons,I think it’s because users lack brands to follow。Currently, users are looking forward to brands that can guarantee stable quality。No shortage in China,But the brand still has a lot of room for growth,This brings new opportunities for integration。Third,The experience of people and teams is more integrated,Have done both online and offline work,Experienced in both areas。This is my own feeling about new retail。

IDG Capital Director Lou Jun:
Old Han, you said Leke is a sharing economy. Why?

Han Wei, founder and CEO of Leke:

In fact, Alibaba’s summary of new retail is very accurate。Today we look at several models that new retail can emerge in the future,There may be three types,One is Amazon,One is Hema Fresh Food,There is also the mode of music engraving。Hema Fresh sold 1,500 square meters to more than 2,000 square meters,The essence is to connect the bottom layer online and offline。

Leke is changing the cost structure through the sharing economy,Deconstruction scene。In fact, what we have to solve is in the new consumption process,Make exercise more enjoyable、More fun,Create stickiness among more users in fitness facilities,Teachers and members can interact,This stimulates everyone’s interest in fitness。

What on earth is Leke doing,We can’t explain it clearly,But we can talk about what Leke did。

Lex took 188bet sports betting app download 20 months to become the number one fitness offline store in China,Raise the price of the gym card from several thousand yuan to 99 yuan a month,Able to make profit at the same time,Before this, almost no gym chains in China were profitable。Leke has also achieved cross-regional development,Increased the gym population by 300% wherever it went,The frequency of visitors has increased by more than 4 times,Let Chinese gyms compete with Japan、Hong Kong is similar,Hangzhou can reach the level of moderately developed countries in the world,If you are familiar with the fitness industry,This is a very shocking number。

At the same time,LeKe also allows personal trainers to make more money on the platform,Reduced industry commission from 75% to 25%。To summarize,We are doing scenario operations based on data,Establish new consumer relationships based on new experiences,New credit relationship and efficiency relationship。

Ding Yuting:

Recently a friend specifically mentioned LeKe to me。He said that this kind of thing originally focused on decision-making,You have to call and pay a lot of money,You have to call and pay a lot of money,Gym too,It’s going to be very exciting、Breakup、Go to the gym only if you can’t get married。But Leke is actually very Internet-oriented,Lowers the threshold for user decision-making,As long as the user is willing,You can do fitness whenever and wherever you want。

Including the recently popular mini KTV, it is similar。In the past, people thought that singing karaoke required shouting out a lot of people,Set aside a whole block of time。But mini KTV meets the needs of singing anytime and anywhere,In a sense, it is a process of consumption downgrading,What do you think?

Han Wei:

This is similar to the “dimensionality reduction attack” on the Internet that everyone liked to talk about before。Let’s take Lex as an example,The average cost of a fitness session in Chinese gyms is 300 to 500,Leke reduces the cost to 12.Under 5 yuan,It turns out that personal trainers still lose money after selling gyms worth three to five hundred yuan,Now selling 180,Income to coach 140,The price has been reduced by half for consumers。So it is actually relatively easy to make high-dimensional and low-dimensional。

In Lou Jun’s PPT just now,You can see that China’s average annual household consumption is 3362 US dollars,In accordance with international practice,At the beginning of fitness, it was about 80 yuan,China’s consumption power and income simply cannot support such high consumption,China’s gym spending even exceeds that of the United States,This is absolutely abnormal。In other words,What Lex is doing is just to bring it back to the normal average,Many people will question how we can make money at 99/month,188bet online sports betting In fact, Leke is already making profits。

Lou Jun:

Consumption downgrade is actually the trend of “fashion products turning into consumer goods” that I mentioned before。Fitness used to be more popular or fashionable to users,Because it’s expensive,And Leke turned it into a consumer product,More everyday,Reasonable price,More cost-effective。

Nowadays, the brand concentration of the entire fashion product is getting lower and lower,But in the field of consumer goods,We found that brand concentration will be higher。For example, Nike and adidas still occupy a certain market share in the sports category,UNIQLO、Zara、H&M is also three typical consumer goods channel brands,So the mainstream is consumer goods,Not a fashion item。

In the course of this trend,The user’s mind has shifted,Categories are also changing。When the category that used to be a fashion product is slowly becoming a consumer product category,I think it may be an investment opportunity。Also,We also saw the "sinking phenomenon",Some first- and second-tier cities have slowly transformed from fashionable goods into consumer goods,But it is still a fashionable item in third- and fourth-tier cities,There is a sinking process。

*Source of this article: IDG Capital, original title: "When everyone is talking about consumption upgrade,We want to talk about "Consumption Downgrade"


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