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Author of this article: Financial Times 2015-12-12
The ultimate goal of China’s supply-side reform and management is to increase domestic demand,That is, improving the living standards and quality of the people。Only supply-side reform and demand-side reform are two-pronged,Only by us can we avoid labor pains or reduce labor pains。
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Everyone knows,The American economy and society is a consumption-oriented economy and society。In the Carter and Reagan Era,Not only the US government is spending ahead of schedule,A huge fiscal deficit,And American business、Family、Everyone spends money in advance,Spend tomorrow’s money today。So all economic entities in the United States are basically debtors。Their debts include not only debts arising from mutual loans,It also includes debts formed by borrowing from foreign economic entities。So America’s problem is not a lack of domestic demand,But excessive consumption in advance。In view of this,When the Reagan administration changed its policies in the early 1980s, it mainly made bets on supply,This policy led to the Great Depression in the United States for several years,The severe pain caused by “Reaganomics” triggered an uproar in public opinion。

The car in front was overturned,Learning from the past。The current economic and social status of China is very different from that of the United States at that time。China’s economy and society have been suffering from insufficient consumption for many years,188bet app download The proportion of residents’ disposable income in gross domestic product (GDP) has been hovering at a low level,China’s per capita disposable income in 2014 was 20,167 yuan,Converted to approximately US$3,300 at the current exchange rate,The per capita disposable income of the United States during the same period was US$38,000;China’s per capita disposable income accounts for 43% of per capita GDP,The per capita disposable income of the United States accounts for 73% of the per capita GDP,The difference between the two countries is 30%。So China’s economic growth over the years has not been driven by household consumption,Instead rely on investment and exports。

After 2008,The global financial crisis continues to ferment,Coupled with the package of quantitative easing implemented by the United States、Policies such as restricting imports and encouraging exports have been imitated by many countries,Triggered the bankruptcy or withdrawal of foreign capital of export companies in China's coastal areas such as the "Three to Come and One Subsidy" program。China’s export products and services are subject to numerous unfair tariff and non-tariff barriers。Most of China’s investments are government-led,Has been running at high levels close to saturation for many years,It is difficult to achieve big growth。The two carriages driving China’s economic growth are showing signs of weakness。

In this context,The previous government began to increase government spending,Start the “4 trillion yuan” support plan,Local government matching funds reached 16 trillion yuan,Supplemented by looser monetary liquidity,Plus the implementation of export tax rebates and other export incentive policies,Basically maintained China’s economic growth of 8%~9%。The beginning of the new government taking office,Continued expansionary fiscal policy 188bet online sports betting and prudent monetary policy,But the downward pressure on the economy is still great。In this dilemma,The government takes timely measures to increase government spending,Expanding transfer payments,Moderately increase the wages of civil servants and public institution employees,And lowered the reserve ratio and base interest rate multiple times,Moderately increase liquidity;In addition, the government also lowered the entry threshold for industrial and commercial enterprises last year,Simplifying industrial and commercial administrative procedures,And actively guide the growth of private investment,Hopefully this will boost China’s domestic demand,To achieve a soft landing for the economy,Ensure economic growth。However,The results of these policies are not satisfactory。Many policies that worked well in the past have failed,Requires us to implement deep changes,Otherwise, China’s economy will fall into the trap of stagflation。

This is it,The central government promptly proposed ideas for strengthening supply-side structural reform,Point out supply deficiencies in China’s economy,Unreasonable structure,Lack of ability to innovate tangible or intangible products。These fully demonstrate that it is very necessary to implement supply-side reform。But at the same time,Marx’s economics tells us,All products and services must achieve a "thrilling jump" before they can become commodities,I want to sell products or services,Realize the value of your product or service,Otherwise, new overcapacity will be formed。

To achieve the "thrilling jump" of products and services,Only international and domestic markets are available。However, within the foreseeable 3~5 years,It is difficult to see major growth in the international 188bet online sports betting market。After the international financial crisis,The United States accelerates the return of the real economy,Its role as a benchmark is obvious,Other countries,Especially other developed countries are following the example of the United States,Restricted imports,Encourage exports,Promote the return of the real economy,Increase domestic employment rate,Achieve balance of international payments。The markets of developed countries are the main body of the international market,The main market is not booming,China’s export-driven economic development cannot run smoothly。The export industry structure of moderately developed and developing countries is similar to that of China,Most are competitors;Although these countries also import Chinese goods,But most of them belong to small economies,Little impact on China’s exports as a whole。So it will be difficult for the international market to drive China’s economic development in the next 3 to 5 years。

The remaining market is only the domestic market。China’s per capita disposable income is less than one-tenth that of the United States,It shows that there is huge room for development of supply economy,The domestic market can absorb the results of supply-side economic development in the next few decades。Exploring the domestic market can also avoid or reduce friction between countries。

Also,Industrial development has a strong inheritance,It is unrealistic to hope that China can produce world-class products tomorrow。We can only rely on existing industrial technology,Improving the quality of some products and services in a targeted and selective manner,Create some new products and services at the same time,And position most of its products and services in the domestic market,A few parts are for the international 188bet app market,In this regard, attention should also be paid to keeping the core technology of the product in the country。

There are many ways to start the domestic market,From last year to this year,The government has done a lot。The follow-up work needs to be done in breadth and depth。If the threshold for personal income tax is raised,Increased from 3,000 yuan to 6,000 to 8,000 yuan,And increase the amount of subsidies for needy families nationwide (families with no labor force or lack of labor force);For small and micro enterprises,Enterprises with annual profits within 1 million yuan are exempt from income tax,VAT reduced to 10%~12%;Implement national treatment for large and medium-sized domestic enterprises,Reduce income tax to 15%,Equality with foreign-funded enterprises。

Generally,The ultimate goal of China’s supply-side reform and management is to increase domestic demand,That is, improving the living standards and quality of the people。Only supply-side reform and demand-side reform are two-pronged,Only by us can we avoid labor pains or reduce labor pains。

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