I joined 36 Krypton for more than half a year，It just happened to be half a year since the tourism industry changed its face，We used to use “online travel” to define the fields we cover，No longer applicable。We consider tourism as a type of O2O，Because of the help of online channels and Internet technology，Offline resources begin to be reconstructed，The re-pricing of assets is then completed，The trend of online and offline integration has become very obvious。

The process of fusion，It is also the process of restructuring the industry structure。We saw too much consolidation of online players in 2015，Interesting thing，We initially thought that integration meant the stability of the industry structure，But found the characteristics of O2O based on the tourism industry，The restructuring of the pattern has just begun。

I would like to write this article，Looking back at 2015 - maybe I missed something in my review，By the way, let me make a bold guess about the upcoming 2016 - the guess here follows my personal observation logic、Based on a large number of personal assumptions and presumptions，If you have different opinions，Welcome to buy bricks。

All internal links in the article are previous 36 Krypton reports on the company or events，Welcome to re-read the old article。

188bet sports betting app download

Let’s start with the giants，Elong, which once had high hopes from Expedia, is in this yearwas transferred to Ctrip，And was once considered an important fulcrum of Baidu’s O2O strategyNo matter where you go, you will be abandoned to save your car，The era of three pillars (of course in recent years it has been two heroes competing for hegemony) has come to an end。It’s hard to say that Ctrip is the biggest winner，Because it seems now，Baidu earned a place in the future at almost zero cost with this transaction。

Ali played the role of Qunar without any sense of disobedience，Ctrip blocks Alibaba at 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino the hotel level，Li Shaohua, the boss of Alibaba Travel, shouted out in public “What is Ctrip afraid of?”。There is another one who has suddenly emergedMeituan，Already had the intention of copying the way out，Merge with Dianping、After the acquisition of Kuxun，” Xinmei University “Leveraging on its own user advantages，Starting to practice internal strength。

The second echelon differentiates rapidly,Tuniu accepted investment from HNA Group，But not much action yet；Always active in public relationsTongcheng fell into Wanda’s lap，In an instant, he showed the momentum of a rich man，He even shouted the slogan of establishing an airline，Mama Lv announced rather sadly that she would be listed on the New Third Board。

The differentiation of the second echelon just reflects another major trend: offline players penetrating online。The logic here is very clear，That is, the process of users obtaining travel inspiration and completing travel decisions will increasingly be completed online，And the general trend of online purchasing is obvious，And the space is still vast - the online penetration rate of the tourism industry provided by many consulting agencies is around 10%。Offline players here must prefer players with online entrance effect (but...why no offline players buy Qiongyou now)。Of course you saw it too，Plateno GroupStart developing your own App to expand online.

Of course，Online players have not stopped looking for offline resources，Following Ctrip’s acquisition of travel wholesaler Huayuan International Travel Service in 2014，Acquired some smaller offline travel agencies this year，Qunar will start acquiring hotel room operators this year，Tuniu also continued to acquire offline travel agencies in the first half of this year。

The integration of online and offline resources may lead to re-pricing of resources，For example, we never thought that private room operators could be so valuable。Under merger and acquisition，If the resources of both offline and online players can complement each other，And resources have a certain scarcity，The possibility of premiums will be greater。

Say more，In an environment where players from all walks of life are taking sides，Resource scarcity means more “not in the hands of opponents” rather than “less on the market”。

The value of upstream resources is rediscovered, and industry concentration continues to increase

Behind this kind of integration and mergers and acquisitions，It is the development trend of some industries。188bet app download The core trend is naturally the rediscovery of the value of upstream resources，These resources include air tickets、Hotel、Use a car、Fragmented products, etc.。In the past, the situation of downstream players relying on their user traffic advantages to squeeze out the upstream will definitely be reversed，Because what users are pursuing is no longer “going there” but “having a good time”，The booking platform for Jina users must be responsible for product quality - the quality here includes service experience、Peak availability and reliability、Response speed of orders and services、Book in advance, etc.。

Must be mentioned here，Due to the backward paid holiday system and other reasons，The peak and valley differences in Chinese user travel are more obvious，So during periods such as Golden Week，Who can still provide cost-effective travel products，Its competitiveness will be further highlighted - because of the group of people who have just started to leave home or travel abroad，I will still mainly choose to travel during the Golden Week for a period of time。

One of the core resource elements is air tickets，After all, in the overall outbound travel expenses，Air tickets are still expensive，And many users rely on air ticket prices to make travel decisions。It is completely reasonable for Tongcheng to want to be an airline,The major shareholder is Juneyao AirlinesTao TravelThere may also be corresponding advantages，Hainan Airlines and Wanda can also provide corresponding air ticket resource support for their online platforms。

This trend also means，Players integrating the entire industry chain online and offline will appear。Everyone joked before，I thought Ctrip Qun got together，The story should end，Results found HNA、One vote of players including Wanda and even Zhongxin joined，The story gets more complicated。But one thing is certain，The concentration of the industry may further increase in the future。

As Huatai Securities said in the 2016 Tourism Industry Strategy Report: CR10 of the top ten wholesalers is less than 25%。The current loose structure of wholesalers has caused mutual constraints in resource integration，The future will be guided by the resource side，Large wholesalers will gradually shift their strategies to other small and medium-sized companies in the industry，Wholesaler concentration will further increase，A situation in which several powerful forces are in conflict，Most resources will eventually be in 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino the hands of some companies。

But this trend should have been expected，Travel is never a purely online thing。But when it comes to upstream resources，There is a purely online resource - data，This is why PMS welcomes spring this year。Based on transaction data，Whether it is improving the product pricing mechanism and user portraits，Let’s go into finance，All are good ways out。

Rediscovering the value of human service

From a relatively micro level，There are also some interesting trends worth exploring。The first thing is to “rediscover the value of people” in tourism services。No one questions Ctrip todayThe value of call center, and Tongcheng also hopes to use it in a way similar to the sharing economyIntroducing travel consultants，Help users complete travel decisions and itinerary planning。What is reflected here is actually the contradiction between Chinese users’ weak ability to travel independently and their high requirements for travel quality。

First of all, Chinese users do not have much reading habits，Instead, I prefer “ask”，There is no point in trying to change this habit，The correct answer is to appear in time when the user wants to ask。This is also the second half of the year when there are some “magic-like” projects (such asOnion Travel) Reasons why capital pays attention。In addition，Users actually trust the recommendations of “people” – even if they may not know that person，Even though this person may have the underlying purpose of promotion，This is in line with the habit of users in the PC era who like to read guides。The development of mobile Internet has made the connection cost between people cheaper，Also more efficient，Complete sales with recommendations from “experts”，Already on Ctrip “Micro team” It has been proven effective on the project.

Another trend is what entrepreneurs like to call “in the industry”，How to create value for users during travel。Many entrepreneurial projects we come into contact with hope to provide help to users in the industry，Whether it’s answering questions，Still sales of fragmented products。I personally do not deny users’ demand for products in the industry，But whether this may become an entrepreneurial opportunity remains to be discussed，After all, the usage scenarios and needs of users in the industry are extremely diversified and long-tailed，If there is no preparation before departure，How to accurately reach these users and increase their stickiness，Maybe it’s a big problem。

Finally, let’s talk about the trend of the sharing economy。The tourism industry is an early application area of ​​sharing economy，Airbnb’s inspiration to practitioners and entrepreneurs is subversive。But，Except accommodation，In fact, there are not many resources to share in the tourism industry - because many resources rely on human intervention。And how to let people share，Not an easy thing。The factors that may be involved include，How to accurately find a person’s free time (free time is a person’s idle resources，People’s free time is very unstable)，How to mobilize their enthusiasm through economic and other interests - in fact, the essence is how to standardize people's sharing。

The logic here is very simple，Standardizing non-standard products is the key to improving efficiency，Human being an extremely non-standard product，When building a people-based sharing economic platform，How to standardize people’s services、Platform operation standardization，These are all issues to consider。Why we think Uber is a meaningful sharing economy，Because driving is a relatively easy thing to standardize，As long as the displacement is achieved。

Some insights on the tourism industry in 2016

In the upcoming 2016，The big trend we mentioned above will continue。In addition，I am personally very curious about the following points:

• Alibaba Travel takes “empowering the tourism industry” as its mission，Insist on platform gameplay，There is no intention to control resources upstream。But can this kind of gameplay continue？

• How big will Meituan do in the tourism industry?

• Will there be integration for online players？For example, Tongcheng and Tuniu，Qiongyou and Mafengwo。

• How will other offline players penetrate online on a larger scale？For example, Zhongxin、China Youth Travel Service, etc.。

In terms of relatively micro trends，I think the front end that deserves attention first - travel inspiration and decision-making。In 2015, the industry began to recognize the value of video in helping users make travel decisions，But no truly high-quality players have emerged yet。And the wind hasn’t blown yet，VR is all the rage (egZanadu），Many investors believe that VR will be popular until at least the first half of next year。Compared to traditional video，VR has fewer application scenarios (you need equipment，Before VR equipment became popular, this was hardly a purely online thing)，But the user experience 188bet app download is also better，Who will influence travel decisions more - or a third element may emerge that affects travel decisions，Definitely worth paying attention to。

So have pictures and text been eliminated by the times?？It’s hard to say yet，Ctrip hatchedHydrogen Balloon Travel，Still based on traditional graphics、It’s just a lighter form of product that connects before and after the trip。On mobile，Will another relatively large-scale player appear in a similar pure content community，I’m not optimistic。The reason is that the growth of the content community is relatively slow，Today when both users and capital are more impetuous，There may not be enough time for entrepreneurs to build a content community。Not to mention，Entrepreneurs have also learned lessons from the difficulty of monetizing content communities，No longer use content aggregation traffic as an entry point。

Another point is，The combination of tourism industry and finance may provide new ideas for many entrepreneurs。Amid doubts about the commission model，Several platforms are beginning to try to give up commissions，So are there other ways to make money？A platform that connects upstream and downstream，It can be completely based on the transaction data on the platform，Make some financial attempts。

This is an increasingly difficult track for entrepreneurs，Unless you plan to sell after reaching a certain level，Or get in line earlier。I insist on this view，It’s easy to enter the tourism industry，But deep cultivation is difficult，Entrepreneurs do it and cherish it。