As the top demography expert in the country，Co-founder of Ctrip、In public speeches or articles written by Chairman and CEO Liang Jianzhang，Often witty words，Maybe show the actuarial level of a man with science background，Even，He also uses formulas to interpret the relationship between tourism and economy，Or use careful demographic principles，Interpretation of population、The relationship between macroeconomics and tourism。

On the first day of the Year of the Monkey，The first day of the Chinese Lunar New Year，Liang Jianzhang wrote two articles again，Detailed explanation of issues such as population and tourism。What’s different from the past，This time，It also adds the popular "robot" element，Attempting to use the perspective of "science fiction economics"，Explain related issues。

In this internal letter with a rather "Three-Body" flavor，Liang Jianzhang concluded，“There are too many old people，More young people are needed to manage robots used to care for the elderly，There are fewer young people left to manage robots used for tourism。If you use tourism consumption to measure the quality of life，Aging will lead to a decrease in the quality of life，This is it now，This is also the case in the robot era。”

In the article "Why Tourism Will Be the Most Promising Industry"，Liang Jianzhang confessed again，“Why travel is special，This is because most products that meet human spiritual needs are virtual information products,Such as entertainment and games，Can be copied at zero cost using a computer and the Internet，The so-called marginal cost is zero。”

“But tourism is an exception, It is a high-level spiritual need but not a virtual product，It can’t be very cheap。In the long run，After human civilization is highly developed，It is easy for people to obtain all goods，The only things that are insurmountable are space and time，To transcend time and space, you still have to pay 188bet sports betting app download a high price。But human beings’ yearning for time and space is endless。 Even if our plane can speed up a hundred times，People will also travel to outer space。 If people could live a thousand years，It will take 900 years to go to different places。"Liang Jianzhang said。

"In summary，The tourism industry is the most promising industry。"Liang Jianzhang said，"Because of the first，Tourism is a high-level spiritual need，Second，Different from the virtual information industry where marginal cost is zero，Tourism is a real industry，The value of travel platform companies is huge。”

His final summary，“So I feel very lucky，I chose this industry as my lifelong career more than ten years ago，I was also lucky two years ago，Being able to start a second business together with everyone，Create greater glory。”

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Happy New Year to all Ctrip friends! I wish you all a happier trip in the new year，Life is happier，Happier work，Happier families！

Thank you again for everyone’s hard work over the past year，The first day of the New Year，Share a topic of "Science Fiction Economics"，Exercise your imagination。

Robots, population and tourism.

Some people often refute my population view of “more children are better”，Isn’t there robots in the future?？ How will we need so many people working in the future，For example, a few years later，Let the robots do all the work，Even the work of taking care of the elderly may be done by robots。The average life span at that time was more than 100 years old，Everything is cheap，The only luxury is long-distance travel。 (Why the proportion of tourism consumption in the future economy will become larger and larger？Articles with attachments <<Why tourism will be the most promising industry>>）

Let’s make a simple economic model: assuming everyone’s daily consumption (including food、used、Education, etc.) requires an average of 1 robot to provide，Each elderly person needs 1 additional robot for care and medical care。The main job of young people is to engage in robot-related management work (including research and development、Production、Maintenance, etc.)，Each young person can manage 10 robots。Robots undertake two tasks: one is to maintain people’s daily consumption，The second is to engage in tourism，Robots in the tourism industry are more than just drivers and tour guides，Also includes production and maintenance aircraft、Hotel、Spaceship、Space hotel, etc.。

Suppose there were two countries in the world at that time, "White Country" and "Qing Country"，There are 1 billion elderly people in Baiguo，Because there are few children，Only 500 million young people and 500 million children，Total population of 2 billion。Then the daily consumption of White Country requires (20+10=30) 3 billion robots，These robots require 300 million young people to manage them。The remaining (5-3=2) 200 million young people are engaged in tourism (tourism includes space tourism)，Can manage 2 billion travel robots，Providing tourism services to 2 billion people，Then each person in Belarus can use one travel robot。

Another country，Qingguo has more students，There are 1 billion elderly people，There are 1 billion young people and 1 billion children，Total population of 3 billion。So Qingguo needs (30+10=40) 4 billion robots，These robots require 400 million young people to manage them。 The remaining (10-4=6) 600 million young people are engaged in the tourism industry，Can manage 6 billion travel robots，Providing tourism services to 3 billion people，Then Qingguo can use 2 tourist robots per person，Twice as much as the Bai people。So the per capita tourism consumption of Qingguo people，Twice as much as the Bai people (happier)，At the same time, the total tourism industry is three times that of Belarus。

As seen from the above example，There are too many elderly people，More young people are needed to manage robots used to care for the elderly，There are fewer young people left to manage robots used for tourism。If you use tourism consumption to measure the quality of life，Aging will lead to a decrease in the quality of life，This is it now，This is also the case in the robot era。In addition, because more people die in the Bai Kingdom than are born every year，Annual decline in demand，Economic Shrinking，Will lead to a large number of robots becoming unemployed，So the demand for new robots almost all comes from Qingguo，In addition, Qingguo also has a large young working population，So the development and use of new robots must be significantly ahead of Bai Guo。In summary，Qingguo, a country with many young people, is not only richer，Development is also faster。

If GDP is calculated，Tourism accounts for 40% of Belarus’ GDP，60% of Qingguo’s GDP is tourism，Much higher than the White Kingdom！ Haha, Ctrip guys, please work hard.

Finally a bit of science fiction，Assume that Bai Guo and Qing Guo are different intelligent species living on two planets。 Historically，The 188bet sports betting app download level of civilization can be measured by the distance traveled (or the scale of the tourism industry)，The total number of tourists in Qingguo is three times that of Baiguo，So we must go further、Have a higher level of civilization。If two strange civilizations meet in space，It must have been the Qing Kingdom that discovered the Bai Kingdom first， Maybe even destroy the Bai Kingdom.

Attachment article <<Why tourism will be the most promising industry>>

I have stated in several internal speeches recently that although Ctrip’s 120 billion scale is now far behind JD.com (200 billion)，Tmall (400 billion)，Taobao (800 billion)，But it is only a matter of time before it catches up to the size of their company，We will exceed 1 trillion in scale within 10 years。 And I also think，Longer term，Tourism should be the most important industry for mankind in the future。

This conclusion sounds a bit exaggerated，But let me analyze it using economic and philosophical theories。

The current proportion of tourism in GDP is still very small，Only 3% in China。 But this proportion is growing rapidly。In developed countries，The proportion of tourism industry is several times that of China，Manufacturing industry accounts for less than 30%， And it’s still declining。 Comparative，The proportion of tourism is increasing。There is a profound economic principle behind this。

Let’s analyze the two attributes of the product.

The first attribute is the degree of influence by technology。The fundamental driving force for human economic development comes from technological progress， With the advancement of technology，A wide variety of services and products are becoming increasingly affordable。 But cheap speeds are different。Some items such as electronic products become cheap very quickly，The prices of some products such as air tickets and hotels drop very slowly。 Due to the rapid development of human science and technology in recent decades，Many things in the world will become cheaper quickly。 But travel products such as airplanes，Cars, etc.，Due to some physical limitations，It will be unlikely that electronic products will be as fast and cheap。

Another attribute of a product is the change in consumption ratio。Some tool products will become cheaper，188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino The proportion of people’s consumption will decrease，Like food，Clothes，After meeting basic needs，If there are too many, it will be useless。But，Some goods and services will become cheaper later，The proportion of people’s consumption has increased，For example entertainment，Travel，This is because these are to meet higher-level human requirements，People will spend more money to consume these products。。

So according to these two attributes，Goods and services can be divided into four categories:

• Slow and cheap，Proportion decreased，Replaced，Such as some manual services，Like a lawyer，Housing agency, etc.

• Quick and cheap，Proportion decreased，All tool products are of this category，For example, TV，Computer，Mobile phone, etc.。

• Quick and cheap，Rise in proportion，All entertainment is like this。Watch the video now，Playing games is much cheaper than before，But the overall scale of these virtual industries continues to grow。

• Slow and cheap, rising share, travel.

For enterprises，Industries whose share is declining，Obviously not a very attractive industry。

An industry that is fast and cheap but has an increasing share，It must be a very active industry such as the gaming and film and television industries。But this virtual industry，Not in stock，The marginal cost of distribution is zero，So the value of the platform is limited。As a content provider，It is often difficult to form long-term competition barriers。So it is difficult to form large-scale companies in these industries。

The best industry is，An industry that is slow and cheap but has an increasing share of consumption，such as tourism。

Why tourism is special，This is because most products that meet human spiritual needs are virtual information products,Such as entertainment and games，Can be copied at zero cost using a computer and the Internet，The so-called marginal cost is zero。But tourism is an exception, It is a high-level spiritual need but not a virtual product，It can’t be very cheap。In the long run，After human civilization is highly developed，It is easy for people to obtain all goods，The only things that are insurmountable are space and time，To transcend time and space, you still have to pay 188bet sports betting app download a high price。But human beings’ yearning for time and space is endless。Even if our plane can speed up a hundred times，People will also travel to outer space。 If people could live a thousand years，It will take 900 years to go to different places。

After the basic needs of human beings are met in the future，Human beings will mainly use money for spiritual consumption。Spiritual consumption is nothing more than reading，Watching movies，Playing games and other information consumption，There is also travel。Although people are interested in reading thousands of books，The demand for playing thousands of games will increase，But for enterprises，Every book and every game will become very cheap，The competition is also extremely fierce，Can only make a little money。Comparative，Traveling thousands of miles，In particular, the value of travel platforms will become greater and greater。 And，From the perspective of human progress，Traveling thousands of miles is more meaningful than reading ten thousand books and playing ten thousand games。  Because if human beings are only satisfied with entertaining themselves at home，Addicted to the virtual spiritual world，Not going out to 188bet app explore the external objective world，Then the development of human civilization has stagnated。

In short，The tourism industry is the most promising industry，Because of the first，Tourism is a high-level spiritual need，Second，Different from the virtual information industry where marginal cost is zero，Tourism is a real industry，The value of travel platform companies is huge。

So I feel very lucky，I chose this industry as my lifelong career more than ten years ago，I was also lucky two years ago，Being able to start a second business together with everyone，Create greater glory。