When the epidemic hits, what will support the 188bet economy in the first quarter?

188bet Economy Author of this article: Dai Bin 2022-04-08 09:39:58
Every voice should be heard,Everyone’s efforts should also be seen。

The China 188bet Academy (Ministry of Culture and 188bet Data Center) quarterly press conference was held online on April 6。Dai Bin, President of China 188bet Academy, delivered a keynote speech entitled "Hearing the Voice, Seeing the Confidence",The full text is as follows:

1. A 188bet that is stably opening but closing at a low price and consumption that is fluctuating and shrinking

Subject to macroeconomics、The impact of industrial policies and the rebound in consumption during the Spring Festival holiday,The 188bet market from New Year’s Day to Spring Festival in 2022 shows signs of recovery that are stabilizing and slowly rising。Starting in late February,Multiple points of spread and localized outbreaks,Main indicators such as tourist arrivals and 188bet consumption were significantly weaker than the same period last year,Jilin、188bet consumption in Shanghai and other places has reached a new low since the epidemic。Due to the lack of coordination between the demand side and the market,Finance for the supply side and industry、Financial and social security policy,The expected effect cannot be obtained in the short term。Looking from macro data,Comprehensive index of 188bet economy operation in the first quarter (CTA—TEP) is 95.60,Decreased by 9 year-on-year and month-on-month respectively.7 and 3.3,Below the boom and bust line and showing a continuous downward trend。Meanwhile,Entrepreneurs’ confidence and urban and rural residents’ willingness to travel have entered a volatile downward range,Inside and outside the system and the industry and society have also paid unprecedented attention to the 188bet industry。Last 100 days,No matter it is a rational discussion、Macro policy design,Still an emotional expression of opinions,We heard all the voices that should be heard,Also see that persistence is the confidence of victory。

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Comprehensive Index of 188bet Economic Operation (2015Q1-2022Q1)

From a consumption perspective,Affected by the new round of epidemic,Flexible travel demand shows further contraction in the first quarter of 2022,188bet economy is“Open steadily, rise slowly, close low”'s pattern。New Year's Day、Spring Festival Holiday,National domestic 188bet travel 0.5.2 billion people、2.5.1 billion people,Decrease by 5 year-on-year respectively.3%、2.0%,Achieve domestic 188bet revenue reaching 255 respectively.0.9 billion yuan and 2891.9.8 billion yuan,Reduced by 6 year-on-year respectively.6%、3.9%,Compared to the fourth quarter of last year,The decline in the first two months showed a narrowing trend。During Spring Festival,The number of domestic tourists and 188bet revenue nationwide recovered to 73 in 2019 on a comparable basis.9% and 56.3%。Since late February,The 188bet market has entered a new round of contraction。Judging from the data of the three-day Qingming Festival holiday just released,7541 domestic 188bet trips across the country.90,000 people,Decreased by 26 year-on-year.2%,Among them, tourists from within the province account for 94.9%;Realize domestic 188bet revenue 187.800 million yuan,30 year-on-year decrease.9%;The average travel radius of tourists is 95.0 km,44 less than the same period last year.9%;Average recreation radius of destination 4.9 kilometers,60 less than the same period last year.4%。The average travel distance of tourists has shrunk to less than 100 kilometers for the first time,The destination recreation radius shrinks to less than 5 kilometers for the first time,Both hit a record low for this indicator during holidays。Nevertheless,We still need to see rigid travel、Short-distance travel and local leisure support,The macro fundamentals of 188bet consumption remain。It is expected that domestic 188bet will travel nationwide in the first quarter 9.7.3 billion people、Domestic 188bet revenue 640 billion yuan,Decreases of 5% and 13% respectively compared with the first quarter of 2021,Compared with the fourth quarter of 2021, there was an increase of 75% and 16% respectively,Recovered to 80% and 47% of the same period in 2019 on a comparable basis。

What needs to be explained is,The above data is based on the approval of the National Bureau of Statistics、"Cultural Heritage and 188bet Survey and Statistics System" issued by the Ministry of Culture and 188bet,Specially produced by a professional team。188bet statistics are highly professional,188bet data has high public attention,It is normal for some professional discussions to even contain emotional doubts。According to international practice、National legal and statistical system,Specially the technical definition of tourist,We cannot only count group tourists and ignore visits to relatives and friends、Official travel、Presence of business travel and leisure vacation tourists,Otherwise, incorporating official travel and business travel into the business scope of travel agencies may face challenges in both academic and legal terms;Cannot be shorter than 6 hours、A walk in a community less than 10 kilometers and within the usual environment、Wet market purchasing、Watching movies、Walking in the park,Even local residents who drive by an open scenic area are counted as tourists。If and only if the tourist is anchored,Only then can we discuss what 188bet is in a common context,And the situation facing the 188bet industry、Momentum and innovation opportunities。In fact,All enterprises and institutions that serve tourists are market entities,Thus forming the 188bet industry from the perspective of consumption。With the demonstration of national 188bet rights and the scale of 188bet consumption、Changes in structure and behavior,The connotation of 188bet products、The extension of the 188bet industry and the boundaries of 188bet space have always been in the process of dynamic evolution。It is this kind of consumption、Competitive、Dynamic、Macro,Not a resource、Monopoly、static、Microscopic view of industry,It allows us to face even the darkest darkness,You will also have the courage to persevere and the confidence to win。

2. Opportunities of 188bet sinking and support from national policies

After the news of yesterday’s press conference was announced,A friend left a message“Not open,Where does confidence come from?”?The industry looks forward to overcoming the epidemic as soon as possible,Comprehensive opening of entry-exit and domestic 188bet markets,It’s completely understandable。The problem was before the epidemic,The market is completely open,There was no pessimism then?There are also some。Anytime,There will always be people who complain endlessly because they are pessimistic and worried,There will also be people who are optimistic and confident and move forward bravely。The market is always accompanied by risks and uncertainties,Risk and uncertainty are the charms that attract thousands of entrepreneurs。Taking a long view of history,No force can stop people’s yearning for a better travel life,Including natural disasters、War、Unrest and epidemic,This is our eternal confidence in the 188bet industry。After the Spring Festival in 2020,The central and local governments have issued a series of relief policies for various industries of the national economy, including 188bet。National Development and Reform Commission、Ministry of Finance、A new round of service industry relief policies from the Ministry of Culture and 188bet and other 14 ministries,It also demonstrates the country’s determination to help industries with special difficulties overcome difficulties,It also injects stronger confidence into the 188bet market。Here,I am more willing to share with the industry the changes in 188bet consumption、Evolution of 188bet market、The endogenous energy and recovery confidence seen in the innovation of market entities。

We see the development opportunities and business space brought by the sinking 188bet market。In the past, city dwellers traveled,Rural people are receiving the reception,After building a moderately prosperous society in all respects,More and more rural residents are beginning to participate in 188bet activities such as visiting relatives and friends and taking leisure vacations。During the Spring Festival in 2022,Rural residents account for 38% of tourists nationwide.1% all-time high。Most young and middle-aged tourists go home early for the holidays、Return in advance,The impact of reverse Chinese New Year celebrations for the elderly,The 188bet popularity of major migrant exporting areas and traditional tourist source areas has increased significantly。Sichuan、Guangdong、Jiangsu、Hunan、Anhui、Hubei、Zhejiang、Hebei、Guangxi and Henan have the largest number of tourists。Investigation shows,44.7% of migrant workers return to their hometowns to visit relatives during the Spring Festival,Make business districts and shopping malls your first choice for leisure,Directly promoted amusement parks in small and medium-sized cities and county central cities、Theme Park、Budget hotel、The development of specialty catering and 188bet shopping formats。The Red Sea relative to business travel and citizen leisure,The rapidly changing 188bet market for rural residents is a virgin land to be developed,It is a blue ocean that could not be bluer。

We saw excursions、Visiting around the city and local leisure have driven up the consumption activity in tourist destinations。Since the epidemic,Local leisure、Short-distance travel、Suburban vacations have boosted market activity in tourist source areas,Visiting relatives and friends、Urban Leisure、Country vacation、Ice and Snow Leisure、Summer travel、Study trip、Self-driving travel has become the mainstream of the market。Country parks around the city、Cultural Park、Forest Park、Geopark、Water Conservancy Park、Theme Parks and Resorts、Ice and Snow World、Country B&B and other tourist spaces,Become an enjoyable place for family travel and parent-child travel。The 188bet market in some regions has increased significantly,First-tier cities are leading the new leisure 188bet track。Universal Studios、Disney、Happy Valley、Sunac Snow Park、Theme parks and resorts such as Yinji Ice and Snow Resort,Appeared during the Spring Festival“Full House”And the phenomenon of current limiting,Shanghai Citizen Hotel contributed 40% of the occupancy rate during the Chinese New Year。Citizen leisure and short-term travel are customized tours、Local life experience and community economy + 188bet and other industrial innovation and business format innovation,Provides unprecedented business opportunities,And on Ctrip、Where to go、Mafengwo and other travel platforms and Tencent、Meituan、ByteDance、Becoming a reality on social platforms such as Xiaohongshu。

We see the Winter Olympics as ice and snow 188bet、Sports 188bet and rural 188bet have brought new growth points。First Quarter,The Beijing Winter Olympics and Winter Paralympics have driven ice and snow 188bet consumption,Expanded the market space of 188bet。China 188bet Academy (Ministry of Culture and 188bet Data Center) survey shows,39.7% of tourists participated in ice and snow 188bet projects during the Spring Festival。Three days before the Spring Festival,Ski ticket order volume、Hotel bookings and hotel per capita consumption increased by 33% year-on-year respectively、52% and 13%。Except China Youth Hostel、In addition to state-owned enterprises such as China Travel Service directly participating in the Winter Olympics and Winter Paralympics,Spring and Autumn、Guangzhi、Ctrip、Jingyu Lv Mama and other travel service providers,Meituan、JD.com and other local life service providers,ByteDance、Tencent、Ali、Baidu、Amap and its new media platforms,Silver Base、Sunac and other ice and snow 188bet operators,Northeast、Southwest、Xinjiang and Beijing—Ski resorts along Zhangjiakou,And theme hotel、B&B and other tourist accommodation formats have also gained market opportunities in ice and snow 188bet and ice and snow leisure。

We see technology + 188bet、Culture + 188bet、The contrarian in the field of 188bet + world has achieved expected business achievements。Relying on the impact of overseas consumption reshoring and import substitution effect of service trade,The travel retail business has maintained satisfactory growth。January-February,China Duty Free Group’s overall revenue increased by 20%,Net profit increased by about 20%。During Spring Festival,Hainan、Xinjiang and Shanghai、The high-end vacation market in Beijing and other places is already picking up,The number of hotel room nights booked in Xinjiang increased by 110% compared with the same period during the Spring Festival last year。91 during Spring Festival.4% of tourists participated in cultural experience activities,81.8% of tourists participate in more than two cultural experience activities。Visit the historical and cultural district、Museum、The proportion of visitors to the art museum has further increased,春秋“Urban micro-188bet,Architecture can be read”etc. theme lines and“Pack a small courtyard to celebrate the New Year”and other suburban micro-vacation innovative products have been widely recognized by citizens and tourists。Self-driving travel、Family Outing、Small group customization、“Research + Intangible Cultural Heritage”Become the main way to travel,Driving consumption upgrade in market segments。

We see that 188bet investment institutions and 188bet market entities are facing new needs、Cultivation of new momentum、New research and development project、Innovative efforts to create new models。Long time,188bet investment and industrial supply mainly focus on the development of natural resources and historical and cultural resources,Some“Create something out of nothing”’s 188bet project has become a stock asset in urgent need of revitalization due to lack of market support,Even negative equity。More than two years of epidemic have made the 188bet industry re-recognize the power of the market,Start to re-examine 188bet resource development from the perspective of consumption、Project construction and industrial innovation。More and more 188bet companies are beginning to pay attention to short-distance travel and local leisure markets,Emphasis on cultural leadership、Technological Innovation、Integrated development,Drive stock optimization through incremental investment。In the past we were resource constrained,Think“Ice and snow cannot pass the mountain customs”,When I talk about ice and snow 188bet, I want to go to Northeast China、Investment in North China and Northwest China。China 188bet Academy (Ministry of Culture and 188bet Data Center) survey shows,In the market stock of ice and snow 188bet consumer groups and popular ice and snow tourist attractions,The South accounts for more than 70% of the total,And the per-customer price per customer is higher,Greater stamina。In this context,188bet investment and project construction begin to follow the market,Pay more attention to the large permanent population、Urban consumption power with fast economic growth and high level of social development,Focus on Central China、Ice and snow leisure projects in Southwest and South China,And achieved commercial success。

We have also seen the trend of asset-heavy projects turning to asset-light operations,Accelerate the market integration of 188bet formats and business models。Since the epidemic,The shrinkage of the traditional 188bet market and“House for living, not for speculation”’s policy pressure,Further exacerbating the financial balance risk of asset-heavy 188bet projects。Some mature projects have begun asset-light operations such as brand franchises、Channel cooperation and service value-added。For example, Haichang Ocean Park’s asset-light plan is to be deployed around the Bohai Sea、Pearl River Delta、Yangtze River Delta、Southwest and other regions,Huaqiang Fantawild High-tech begins to export amusement products and operation teams to third- and fourth-tier cities,The Hainan Free Trade Port, which is about to close and operate, has also become the headquarters registration place and investment destination of some 188bet groups and listed companies。To attract more customers and consumption,Tourist Complex、Vacation-type projects and other projects themselves are constantly breaking out of circles and reconstructing boundaries,Via Film+,Research+,Sports+,Business+,Convention+,and“+Travel”Integration of various types of cross-border elements,To meet the needs of consumption upgrade and one-stop leisure vacation,For example, Hyatt joins hands with Anta to create FILA brand lifestyle hotel, etc.。Except traditional landscapes, forests, grasslands and historical and cultural scenic spots,Olympic venues、Industrial Relics、Commercial complexes and country parks,And rural revitalization、Land space in the process of new urbanization,All can attract tourists through 188bet development,Thus achieving the purpose of increasing consumption and asset appreciation。

3. An uncertain April and a relatively optimistic second quarter

The second quarter has arrived,Urban and rural residents will still maintain a high willingness to travel,Be more cautious in consumption decisions,There is a possibility of a temporary local correction,However, the trend of 188bet market fluctuation and recovery will not change。Special data display from China 188bet Academy (Ministry of Culture and 188bet),The willingness of urban and rural residents to travel in the next three months is 86.33%,YoY、Increased by 2 month-on-month respectively.14 and 1.01 percentage points,Residents’ willingness to travel is at a high level。Local and short-distance travel、The willingness to travel across provinces and cities is 52% and 34% respectively.7%,Suburban 188bet has increased significantly,8 year-on-year increase.5 percentage points。Comprehensive consideration of May Day、Dragon Boat Festival and other holidays boost the 188bet market,“5.19 China 188bet Day”The tourist atmosphere before and after is strong,Favorable factors such as local 188bet relief support policies and supply innovation,And the weakening of residents’ consumption expectations、Flexible consumption decreases,Especially uncontrollable variables such as the rebound of the epidemic。If the epidemic is fully controlled in mid-to-late April,The travel power accumulated in the past 27 months may allow the 188bet market to get out of the March "";Late spring cold”,And bring an exciting “Little Indian Spring”。

188bet“14th Five-Year Plan”Implementation of development plan,Coupled with the implementation of a new round of bailout support policies and local innovation,It will bring expected growth space to the 188bet economy in the first half of the year from two aspects: policy support and supply pull。With fiscal policy、Comprehensive efforts of financial policies and industrial relief and support measures,Central and local infrastructure、Continuous investment in public services and technological innovation,The foundation for 188bet development is more solid,Thus injecting more market confidence into the operation of the 188bet economy。The State Council transferred Chaoyang District, Beijing、Nanjing City、The 188bet development of 10 cities, including Chengdu, has been included in the inspection and incentive list。Yunnan Province issued "Several Measures for Yunnan Province to Support the Cultural 188bet Industry in Accelerating Transformation and Development in Response to the COVID-19 Epidemic",Coordinate provincial finance and spend 1 billion yuan to promote the recovery of 188bet。“Building Dreams of Ice and Snow·Accompanying the Winter Olympics”National ice and snow 188bet boutique routes、Typical cases of smart 188bet、The first batch of national-level ice and snow 188bet resorts and national-level 188bet and leisure blocks are fully released,Powerfully stimulated and cultivated new growth points of 188bet consumption。With a world-class tourist city、World-class tourist attractions and resorts、National 188bet and leisure cities and neighborhoods、Red 188bet and rural 188bet、The construction of major key projects such as national cultural parks and national parks has begun,Add civil aviation、Railway、Transportation、New infrastructure、Investment in key areas such as public culture,It will form a long-term positive support for the development of 188bet。

Considering that the operation of the 188bet economy is more sensitive to the impact of epidemic prevention and control policies,Relative to investment and supply side,Market entities pay more attention to changes in consumer demand and 188bet market。Due to a new round of epidemic outbreak,The planned adjustment of the inter-provincial circuit breaker mechanism is postponed,leading to supply-side finance、The implementation effect of financial and social security policies has weakened,The impact on the 188bet market is also relatively limited。Predictably,188bet investment and project construction will pay more attention to leisure vacations that replace outbound travel、Short-distance travel and local leisure for the middle class、Demand for consumption upgrade in the sinking market,And leisure agriculture and rural 188bet、Culture such as virtual tours and immersive performances、Integrated development field of technology and 188bet。

In summary,We have reason to give relatively optimistic expectations for China’s 188bet economy in the first half of the year,However, there are uncertainties caused by the rebound of the epidemic,Need to clear the dynamics of the epidemic、Prevention and control policy、Keep a close eye on residents’ travel willingness and entrepreneur confidence。Next three months,Affected by the global epidemic、Russian-Ukrainian War,Affected by high and volatile commodity prices and other factors,The external environment becomes more complex, severe and uncertain。Contracting demand、Supply shock、Under pressure such as expected weakening,The national economy still shows inherent resilience and development determination。The domestic 188bet market may fluctuate in the short term and locally,But the long-term recovery trend is irreversible。Weak growth of investment institutions and 188bet market entities,R&D、Promotion、Solicitation、Reception and other commercial activities tend to“hibernation”,Loss of entrepreneur confidence and shortage of liquidity have become difficulties and pain points that 188bet recovery has to face。Based on comprehensive research and judgment,We estimate that the number of domestic 188bet travelers in the first half of 2022 will be 19.0.8 billion people,Domestic 188bet revenue is 1.71 trillion yuan,There will be a slight positive growth year-on-year,recovered to 62% and 61% respectively of the same period in 2019。Inbound and outbound 188bet in the first half of the year is expected to maintain the same level as the same period last year。Influenced by the BRICS Heads of State Summit,188bet cooperation between the government and industry will become more active,However, there is a high probability that there will be no major adjustments to the immigration policy,Except Macao SAR,There will be no major changes in the inbound and outbound 188bet market。

四、Every voice should be heard,Everyone’s efforts should also be seen

The impact of the new crown epidemic on the 188bet industry has been more than two years ago,188bet market entities are facing increasing operating difficulties,It is a fact that needs no explanation。The cash flow of travel service providers has basically dried up,Serious loss of business and technical backbone,Star hotel、B&B、Scenic spots and resorts are also struggling to maintain,Small, medium and micro businesses are facing an unprecedented test of life and death。Although the new round of policies issued by the 14 ministries and commissions has injected confidence into the market,But different ownership、Different fields、Market entities of different sizes have great differences in their sense of gain。Since the latest period,More and more businesses are passing through grassroots authorities、Industry associations and chambers of commerce、News media and Internet platforms make their voices heard,They want someone to pay attention,Hope for assistance,Hope to have a tangible sense of policy achievement。Whether it is a reflection problem,Still making a request,Everyone’s voice in any organization should be heard。No matter it is a rational appeal,It’s still an expression of emotion,Even uncomfortable misunderstandings and blame,All voices should be understood。Everyone who hears these voices,Whether it is the government、Academia or society,Everyone should feel the same and offer help,It cannot simply be regarded as crying for poverty and selling miserably or as a price that has to be paid。Because,They devote their life’s talents and efforts to fighting for national 188bet rights and high-quality development of the 188bet industry;Because,They have the right to stable expectations and reasonable returns;Because,We have the responsibility and ability to provide them with the help we can。

I hope that party committees and governments at all levels will implement the national relief and support policies for the 188bet industry with greater intensity。After this round of epidemic is effectively controlled,Timely release of adjustment plans for epidemic control,Orderly liberalizing the market,While consolidating the 188bet system’s epidemic prevention and control responsibilities,Promote local policy innovation and market entity business innovation。Sustained release is beneficial for travel、Market expectations to encourage consumption,Create a market environment conducive to medium and long-distance 188bet consumption。Let residents travel with confidence,Willing to consume,Let companies be willing to invest,There is business to be done,This is the fundamental way to help companies out of trouble。It is also necessary to strengthen the progress monitoring and performance evaluation of policy implementation,Promptly launch a batch of recovery models and innovative experiences that can be replicated and promoted。

It is hoped that party committees and governments at all levels will implement the "“14th Five-Year Plan”188bet Development Plan》,Effectively promote the high-quality development of 188bet。Accelerate world-class tourist attractions and resorts、National-level 188bet and leisure city and neighborhood construction,Coordinate local area、Industry and social forces,Improve tourist satisfaction and corporate sense of gain。Increase the development of modern life 188bet resources in cities,Guidance and Support Neighborhood、Business District、Cultural venues、Olympic venues、188bet utilization of city parks,Create a rich and diverse new space for citizens and tourists to share a beautiful life。Adapt to the practical needs of short-distance travel and local leisure,Launching a number of urban parks and country park tourist routes and leisure projects。In investment direction、Investment Mode、Provide more professional guidance to the grassroots and the industry in terms of product development and service improvement。

Hope that 188bet market entities at all levels and types will continue to enhance endogenous motivation,Discover new market needs,Expand new business space。"The Internationale" is sung well!There has never been a savior,There is no fairy emperor。To create human happiness,It’s all up to us。The sound you hear does not mean that if you make a wish, a strong man will run out of the magic lamp to save you,The confidence you see does not mean that some pie will automatically fall from the sky。The correct way to open the market is not for the 188bet industry to wait for tourists to come,But thousands of travel service providers、188bet accommodation operator、Tourist attractions and resorts、Travel performing arts、Catering and shopping companies are doing their best to discover new travel needs、Cultivation of new leisure market,Bring professional services to your doorstep。Comprehensive development in mass 188bet、Science and technology innovation is widely used、The Z era and the post-00 generation lead the era of consumption,The past is not gone,The future is here。188bet groups and small, medium and micro enterprises should ";Cultural leadership + technological innovation”“New infrastructure + traditional projects”“Travel demand + leisure space”oriented,Phoenix Nirvana in the flames of resurrection and creation,Rebuilding the value of 188bet industry,Reshape the dignity of 188bet industry operators。

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