Recently，China’s foreign exchange reserves fell below the US$3 trillion mark，Causing a commotion，A worried person is like a formidable enemy，Those who are ignorant, fearless or calm say there is no need to panic，Discussions are coming and going，After all, foreign exchange reserves are a big deal，Related to national payment、Debt repayment、Economic stability and other national affairs。But the originally highly professional and complex financial system was complicated and complex，Interpreted as a short-lived person by the stove，Overexaggerated or ignored，It makes people lose their rational vision。No wonder Liang Qichao published "An Examination of the Ancient Council" in 1896 and did not advocate the establishment of a council，Because188bet app download 。

But the era of Internet communication makes it impossible for this flat world to easily ignore any issue that attracts collective public attention，A tipping point is enough to cause long-term shocks，After all, China’s foreign exchange reserves reached their peak in June 2014.99 trillion US dollars，Falled to US$2998.2 billion in two and a half years，This was accompanied by China’s capital outflow reaching a record US$725 billion in 2016，So "People's Daily" came out to reassure everyone，"Horse running and dancing as usual，China doesn’t care”。

Disputes over the economic theory of foreign exchange reserves，The national foreign exchange control policy has a number of experts to worry about，I am concerned about the seasonal factors among the reasons why foreign reserves have exceeded "3" summarized by the relevant person in charge of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange:“January coincides with the Lunar New Year，Residents traveling abroad、Increase in consumption and other activities，Financial operations such as corporate debt repayment and settlement will also increase，brings corresponding demand for foreign exchange，Becomes a seasonal factor for the decline in the scale of foreign exchange reserves”。So how big is the impact of this seasonal factor？Is this seasonality ten days and a half or a season and a half?？The changes in foreign reserves are closely related to the exchange rate，Will the exchange rate adjustment affect the development of outbound tourism？Will inbound tourism make things worse?

To what extent will outbound travel purchases cause foreign exchange losses?

Last two years，Chinese Spring Festival has gradually become the global “Golden Week”，This year’s Spring Festival，The total number of Chinese outbound tourists reached 6.15 million in half a month，If travel expenses plus destination shopping consumption per capita are 1.50,000 yuan calculation，Chinese tourists spend 100 billion yuan abroad during Spring Festival，Nearly 14.5 billion U.S. dollars (according to the exchange rate of 1 U.S. dollar on February 12 to 6.8774 yuan)。You must know that Wanda’s overseas investment in the past three years has only exceeded 100 billion yuan，Only about half a month’s overseas spending by Chinese people。Such a huge outbound travel overseas expenditure is very likely to cause a large tourism trade deficit。

About the problem of the surplus and deficit of tourism trade due to the lack of survey and statistical system and statistical caliber of overseas tourism expenditure，Always controversial，Back on January 15, 2015，National Tourism Director Li Jinzao denied at the tourism work conference in Nanchang that China has a tourism trade deficit，He said: "The statement that China has become the country with the largest tourism services trade deficit in the world is actually a misleading statement"。According to statistics from the National Tourism Administration，China’s inbound international tourism revenue in 2015 1136.USD 500 million， And outbound tourism spends 104.5 billion US dollars，Trade surplus 91.USD 500 million，The tourism trade surplus in 2014 was 157.USD 400 million。

However, the "China's Foreign Trade Situation Report (Spring 2015)" released by the Ministry of Commerce on May 5, 2015 pointed out， 2014，China’s service trade deficit 1599.USD 300 million，35% year-on-year increase。Among them, the tourism trade deficit is 1078.USD 900 million，Significant increase of 40.3%，Accounting for 67% of the total service trade deficit.5%，Is the largest source of service trade 188bet app deficit。The tourism trade deficit in the first three quarters of 2016 has reached US$172.5 billion，According to data released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange，China’s travel trade deficit reached US$223.1 billion in 2016。

Data source: official website of the Ministry of Commerce

The calibers of the National Tourism Administration, the Ministry of Commerce and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange are very different，Mainly because the National Tourism Administration believes that the purchase of "luxury goods" by outbound tourists is not considered tourism expenditure，Expenses belonging to "trade of goods"；“Think of studying abroad、Beauty and wellness treatments are not considered tourist activities”，However, it is recognized by the international tourism community that any period not exceeding 12 months is considered travel expenditure；In addition, the statistical caliber of travel and tourism are also very different，No strict distinction is made。But one thing is undeniable，The scale of China’s foreign exchange losses caused by outbound travel and related consumption in travel/tourism cannot be underestimated。China’s foreign exchange reserves fell for the seventh consecutive month，Changes in foreign exchange reserves in the medium and long term，The dollar remains strong，And due to the rising US dollar interest rates，There is great pressure on RMB to raise interest rates，The fluctuations in the foreign exchange market also affect the hearts of outbound travel practitioners in the tourism industry，So do exchange rate and other foreign exchange market fluctuations have a big impact on China’s outbound tourism?？

Does exchange rate factors have a big impact on China’s outbound tourism market?

2016，Although China’s outbound tourism shows signs of slowing down，But the number of outbound tourists throughout the year is still as high as 1.2.2 billion people，1 compared to 2015.1.7 billion visitors increased 4.3%。Tourism spending reaches US$109.8 billion (approximately 760 billion yuan)，Per capita spending is US$900。Although the number of outbound tourists only accounts for 3% of the total number of tourists，However, outbound travel consumption accounts for 16% of the national tourism expenditure。According to Goldman Sachs statistical forecast，By 2025，Mainland Chinese citizens’ outbound travel will reach 2.2.5 billion people，Consumer spending reaches $450 billion，From 2014 to 2015，The compound growth rate of China’s tourism trade deficit reaches approximately 36.05%，If calculated based on this compound growth rate，The tourism trade deficit will be staggering by 2025。

Of course why 188bet app download Chinese tourists like to buy when they go abroad，Just look at the picture below，The logic of Chinese people is very simple:1、The average price difference between China and other countries for luxury jewelry is 15%-30%；2、Fake goods are basically not available abroad。

If you want to have a deeper understanding of the impact of exchange rate changes on outbound travel，You can compare China’s neighbors horizontally，Japan and South Korea，China’s current outbound tourism development situation is very similar to Japan’s in the 1990s，Although there was a slowdown in the second half of 2016，But it is still in the initial stage of rapid growth，According to CEIC data，At this stage，The relationship between the number of outbound tourists and exchange rate fluctuations is more likely to be suppressed，In other words, exchange rate fluctuations have no obvious impact on the rapidly growing outbound tourism。

The relationship between the number of Japanese outbound tourists and the exchange rate of the yen against the US dollar

Once it reaches a more mature stage of development，The correlation between exchange rate fluctuations and outbound travel has become stronger，For example, Japan’s outbound travel to South Korea and South Korea’s outbound travel to Japan after 2004。

Graph of the relationship between the Korean won/yen exchange rate and the number of Korean tourists to Japan

Graph of the relationship between the Korean won/yen exchange rate and the number of Japanese tourists to South Korea

This also explains the period from 2000 to 2013，The exchange rate between RMB and Korean Won fluctuates greatly，However, Chinese outbound tourism to South Korea has been growing steadily，Starting from 2010，An even greater increase。

Graph of the relationship between the won/renminbi exchange rate and the number of Chinese tourists to South Korea

Chinese Millennials’ increasing demand for outbound travel，The number of outbound tourists will also increase。So for mature economies，The relationship between the number of tourists and exchange rate fluctuations is relatively obvious，Basically a positive correlation。But for a country like China，The number of outbound tourists is increasing，The role of exchange rate factors is not obvious，As outbound travel becomes more mature，The impact of exchange rate fluctuations will gradually become apparent。

Will inbound tourism make things worse?

If the RMB depreciates、The pressure to reduce foreign exchange reserves continues to increase，The country will inevitably adjust it through RMB appreciation，In fact, it has been done。Since February 3rd of the new year，Yangma is already quietly controlling the situation，Until February 9th，The RMB has appreciated 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino 139 points against the US dollar，The largest increase in more than two weeks。For inbound tourism，The main impact of the appreciation of the RMB is the increase in tour fee costs，Includes air tickets、Hotel、Attraction Tickets、Catering、Expenses on travel, tour guide rental, etc.，The travel price may fluctuate and the impact may not be immediate，But it will gradually appear。

According to the National Tourism Administration’s 2015 annual tourism statistics，The number of inbound tourists from China reached 1 in 2015.3.4 billion visitors，An increase of 4 over the same period last year.1%。Among them: foreigners 2598.50,000 people，Down by 1.4%；Hong Kong compatriot 7944.80,000 people，Growth 4.4%；Macau compatriot 2288.80,000 people，Growth 10.9%；Taiwan compatriots 549.90,000 people，Growth 2.5%。 Number of overnight visitors: 5688.60,000 people，An increase of 2 over the same period last year.3%。Among them: foreigners 2028.60,000 people，Down 2.5%；Hong Kong compatriot 2709.00,000 people,Growth 4.7%，Macau compatriots 466.60,000 people，Growth 10.9%，Taiwan compatriots 484.40,000 people，Growth 2.5%。International tourism revenue 1136.USD 500 million，An increase of 7 over the same period last year.8%。

We can find out from public statistics，In inbound tourism data，Foreigners only account for 19.4%，And continues to decline，Visitors from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan basically account for 80.6%，Hong Kong has the most tourists，Over 60%。Hong Kong tourists mainly attend conferences and business，Less leisure and sightseeing，So for the tourism industry，This part basically contributes very little profit。Many Hong Kong tourists go to the mainland for business，Come in the morning and leave in the afternoon，Basically not much consumption in the mainland，On the contrary, it can bring income，The number of overnight tourists who are more able to “earn foreign exchange” has also declined。

The inbound tourism industry chain is long and complex，Aviation、Hotel、Catering、Entertainment、Shopping、Specialty、Related products, etc. are all its components，Among them aviation、Accommodation accounts for more than half of inbound consumption，The appreciation of RMB will directly affect the prices of these products，Other tourism income is scattered in catering、Retail、Different fields such as entertainment，Products are extremely fragmented，The supply and marketing system formed over the years has not changed much with the development of the Internet，Product organization and distribution efficiency is still low，The possibility of large-scale product sales is small，It is difficult to connect domestic travel agencies with services and operations，In addition, the profit of inbound tourism products is meager，The customer base is scattered and extremely unstable，It often feels like a waste when connecting with local agencies in China。In addition, there is a lack of GDS system that can form fragmented integration in China，Inbound tourism has been in the neglected corner for a long time。Since inbound tours are mostly packaged products，Long booking cycle for foreigners，The price of inbound tourism affected by the appreciation of the RMB will not appear immediately，It may take about half a year to fully appear，In addition to the influence of weather factors such as haze，It is difficult to be optimistic about the future development of inbound tourism，A series of factors indicate that China’s inbound tourism may be even worse。

Tourism trade deficit of nearly 200 billion US dollars per year，Outbound tourism continues to grow，Inbound tourism continues to slump，It seems that the “seasonal factors” mentioned by the Administration of Foreign Exchange will become the norm，Travel and shopping account for a large proportion of foreign exchange losses，But can we give the Chinese a reason not to buy, buy, buy？

*Author of this article: Liu Zhaohui (personal WeChat ID: liuzhao-hui22)，Founder and CEO of Zhihui，Expert Author。