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Author of this article: Zhihui 2020-12-02
Thanks to the effective control of the epidemic and the resumption of inter-provincial travel,Ctrip Group’s domestic main business revenue increased by more than double digits month-on-month。
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December 2, Ctrip Group (NASDAQ: TCOM) announced unaudited financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2020。Financial report display,The third quarter of 2020,Ctrip Group’s net operating income is 5.5 billion yuan (8.USD 0.5 billion),73% month-on-month increase,Leading domestic online travel companies in growth。Thanks to the effective control of the epidemic and the resumption of inter-provincial travel,Ctrip Group’s domestic main business revenue increased by more than double digits month-on-month。

The third quarter of this year,Net profit attributable to shareholders of Ctrip Group reached RMB 1.6 billion (2.US$3.4 billion),Achieve first quarterly profit since the outbreak of the new crown epidemic,And topped the list of net profits of Chinese online travel companies in the quarter。

It’s worth noting,The third quarter of this year,Ctrip Group’s operating profit margin reached 24%,Ranked No. 1 among listed travel companies in the world。If stock-based compensation expenses are not included,Operating profit is 1.3 billion yuan (1.US$9.6 billion)。Although the global tourism industry is still full of uncertainty amid the raging epidemic,But Ctrip is already “deeply developing in China,Return of value has been achieved under the new strategy of “Global Mind”,Become an important driving force leading the recovery of global tourism。

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The third quarter of this year,Ctrip’s main business achieved overall surge month-on-month。Among them,Accommodation booking business achieved operating income of 2.5 billion yuan (3.USD 6.5 billion),98% month-on-month increase。Look at the details,Domestic mid- to high-star hotels on Ctrip’s platform continued to maintain double-digit growth during the third quarter,10-20 percentage points higher than the industry average,And the lead continues to expand。

With the blessing of the recovery dividend of the domestic tourism market,Short-distance hotel bookings increased by approximately 20% year-on-year in the third quarter of this year,;National Day period,Ctrip’s overall GMV for accommodation bookings increased by more than 10% year-on-year,Local hotel GMV increased by more than 50% year-on-year。As another pillar business of Ctrip Group,Transportation ticketing achieved operating income of 1.9 billion yuan in the third quarter,66% month-on-month increase。Among them,Ctrip’s domestic air ticket business achieved positive year-on-year growth in the third quarter,Higher than industry average。

With the effective control of the domestic epidemic,With the superposition of multiple positive effects such as the resumption of inter-provincial travel and the peak summer tourism season,Ctrip’s vacation and business travel management business is also accelerating its recovery。The third quarter of this year,Tourism and vacation business achieves operating income 3.2.6 billion yuan (US$48 million),151% month-on-month increase,Customized travel business maintains 50%-60% year-on-year growth。During the National Day,Ctrip ticket booking volume exceeded the same period last year,Year-on-year 188bet sports betting app download growth of over 100%, a record high,The highest increase in ticket sales in scenic spots reaches 3706%。Ctrip car rental increased by over 50% year-on-year。In addition,Business travel management business achieves operating income 2.8.2 billion yuan (US$42 million),74% month-on-month increase。

Marketing expenses dropped by more than 50% year-on-year,User stickiness increases instead of decreasing

While the four major businesses are experiencing explosive recovery across the board,Ctrip continues its style of reducing costs and increasing efficiency since the epidemic,Product Development、Sales and marketing and administrative expenses continue to trend downward,Among them,Sales and marketing expenses were 1.1 billion yuan (1.USD 6.6 billion),Down 54% year-on-year,It is the part with the largest decrease among the three major cost sections。

Despite a significant reduction in marketing expenses,However, Ctrip’s user stickiness and purchasing power have not decreased but increased,As of now,Ctrip’s overall repurchase rate in the past 12 months has exceeded the level of the same period last year,In addition,Ctrip Black Diamond players are fully upgraded,The average annual orders are more than 100 orders。

actually,In the past 3 years,Ctrip has reduced its marketing expense ratio from 30% in 2017 to 26% in 2019,However, Ctrip’s user activity and paying user conversion power are still improving,According to iResearch data,2017-2019,Ctrip’s monthly active users increased by 60%。This shows,Ctrip’s products and services have formed strong user stickiness and high traffic conversion power。

Ctrip’s “Fighting Epidemic Star” live broadcast project,Continuing the glory of 188bet online sports betting the first two quarters。Data display,The third quarter of this year,The customer price in Ctrip’s live broadcast room reaches 1,300 yuan,As of now,Ctrip’s live broadcast matrix GMV cumulative exceeds 2.4 billion yuan,More than 1 viewers.700 million visitors。Among users watching Ctrip live broadcast,Users who stayed for more than 1 minute,Review rate nearly 40%;The proportion of users who have repurchased more than 2 times accounts for more than 60%,Ctrip live broadcast continues to influence users’ consumption decisions,The proportion of users who watch Ctrip’s live broadcast and place orders on or after the next day exceeds 65%。In addition,In the WeChat applet, the main site of Ctrip Live,Post-90s、Post-00s account for more than 60%。

With the comprehensive revision of Ctrip App,And the group’s overall efforts to build a content ecosystem,The third quarter of this year,Personalized content tags help partner hotels increase conversion rates by 5%;Transportation and hotel cross-sales achieved double-digit growth year-on-year。

Integrate resources to sink the market,Vaccines may help market value return to its peak

Under the epidemic,Ctrip continues to deepen its efforts in the domestic tourism market,It also strengthens its layout in the domestic sinking market through the "Ctrip" matrix。Data display from Qunar,The current number of new customers in Qunar is the same as last year,Among them, Xinkeli users under 25 years old account for 40%,Nearly half of the new users come from third-tier cities and below;Millions of users have purchased their first flight tickets on Qunar this year,reached a new high in the past five years。The third quarter of this year,The total room nights of Tongcheng 188bet online sports betting Yilong Hotel increased by more than 15%,30% growth in lower-tier cities。

Although there are still many uncertainties in the global tourism industry under the epidemic,But,The arrival of the vaccine will undoubtedly become an important factor in stimulating the recovery of the global tourism industry。Not long ago,Pfizer and Biotech announce they hope to produce 50 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine by the end of this year。After the news is announced,Concept stocks in the tourism industry are all in the red,Ctrip’s closing stock price reached 36 that day.USD 57,Increase of 13.85%。

Ctrip estimate,The strong recovery of the domestic tourism market will continue,In the short term, international business will still face pressure due to the impact of the epidemic。September 2020,Research report released by Guosheng Securities,With the recovery of tourism,Ctrip’s valuation is expected to return to the market average。Refer to similar consumer companies,Ctrip’s reasonable PE in 2021 is 30 times,Corresponding to a market value of 204 billion yuan,Market value converted to US$29.7 billion。

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