This year’s Spring Festival is the first Spring Festival under the normalization of epidemic prevention and control，Due to the impact of the new crown epidemic，The traditional Chinese concept of "having money but not having money"，The custom of going home to celebrate the New Year is broken。With the spread of new coronavirus cases in many places，To reduce personnel turnover，January 27, 2021，The Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism of the State Council held a press conference，The relevant person in charge introduced the relevant situation of the "Notice on Providing Services and Guarantees for the People's Local New Year"。As of now，Already has Beijing、Shanghai and other 29 provinces and cities have initiated “celebrating the New Year on the spot”。

Some experts said，Although “Celebrating the New Year in situ” is not good for the domestic tourism industry、The hotel industry and aviation industry will have a certain impact，But challenges often coexist with opportunities，Celebrating the New Year on the spot will definitely be conducive to epidemic prevention and control，Will promote sustained economic recovery。At the same time，It will promote the consumption of local commodities，Conducive to maintaining the popularity of leisure consumption。

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The Ministry of Transport held a press conference on January 28th，First day of Spring Festival，Follow the Central Office、Notice and requirements of the State Council to guide the masses to celebrate the New Year on the spot in a reasonable and orderly manner，It is expected that passenger flow during Spring Festival this year will decrease significantly，Passengers 11 will be 188bet app download sent during the nationwide Spring Festival travel period.About 5.2 billion people，More than 28.8 million people per day，Decreased by more than 60% compared with 2019、Decreased by more than 20% compared with 2020。

Celebrating the New Year on the spot has an impact not only on the Spring Festival passenger traffic，Shanxi Securities analyst Zhang Xiaolin pointed out in a recent research report，Overall，The local New Year celebration policy has different impacts on various sub-sectors of the social service industry: the traditional tourist attraction industry is expected to receive tourists、Tourism revenue will decline，Has a negative impact on the ticket revenue of listed companies in scenic spots。

Shanxi Securities pointed out，In the context of celebrating the New Year on the spot，The traditional tourist attraction industry will become the social service sub-industry that will be most negatively affected。For denser populations、First-tier cities with diversified consumer demands，Some tourists plan to switch from long-distance inter-provincial travel to surrounding travel during the Spring Festival，It is expected that the reception volume of leisure scenic spots will still be considerable。For traditional long-distance natural scenic spots，Restricted by population movement，Income from tickets and related items during the Spring Festival Golden Week is expected to decline。

Also，Analysts think，Under the influence of the epidemic，The performance of the hotel industry is divided，The trend of “hotel vacation” is gradually becoming more prominent。Catering dine-in affected，Takeaway、Demand for home cooking is expected to increase。The subsequent recovery of the catering industry depends on the development of the epidemic，The transformation of people returning home into people celebrating the New Year in situ is beneficial to first- and second-tier brands of catering，Not conducive to the growth of catering below the quota in the third and fourth tiers。Duty-free repurchase on outlying islands、Online direct mail fills the gap in offline stores。

Opportunities: Initiatives in many places bring vitality 188bet sports betting app download to peripheral tourism and online dining

In the early days of the epidemic, consumers first stopped eating out，The catering industry is almost at a standstill。With the normalization of epidemic prevention and control，The catering industry takes the lead in recovery。Guotai Junan research report believes that in the form of stricter prevention and control，There will not be a full-scale outbreak like last year。So analysts expect，The epidemic will repeatedly affect tourism in 2021、The impact on the catering industry will be far less than last year，Related industries may experience significant growth compared with the same period last year。Also，Restricted due to travel out of the province，Mid-to-high-end chain brand catering and city and suburban vacation trips may become the choice of many people who “celebrate the New Year in place”。

Currently，Many regions have begun to “recruit tourists”，Stimulate local tourism and surrounding dining。Specifically，Proposed by Fenghua District, Ningbo City, Zhejiang Province，210 yuan free tickets to Xikou Scenic Area will be issued；Quanzhou City, Fujian Province，Employees of companies working in Quan from other places who stay in Quan during the Spring Festival can take the bus for free with their personal ID cards、Free admission to state-owned A-level tourist attractions。In order to encourage “celebrating the New Year on the spot”，Nanshan District, Shenzhen while doing a good job in epidemic prevention and control，Started the "Online Happy Run" event，During Spring Festival，Foreigners can participate in online check-in activities by scanning the QR code on their mobile phones。Foshan Human Resources and Social Security Bureau、Federation of Trade Unions、The Federation of Industry and Commerce jointly launched 8 gift packages，We also launched a free ticket tour to Foshan。Urumqi, Xinjiang launches the heart-warming campaign "I'm celebrating Chinese New Year in Urumqi"，Includes free cultural travel、Free ride、Healthy and beneficial to the people、“Salary-based job retention” and other measures。

With the policies 188bet online sports betting of various places to “Celebrate the New Year in situ”,，will further stimulate residents’ consumption potential。Shanxi Securities said，Except local tours、In addition to the increasing popularity of surrounding tourism，Policy dividends will continue to increase in the tax-free industry in 2021，The list of imported goods for consumption by island residents is expected to be released before the Spring Festival in 2021。It is expected that the local New Year celebration policy will not have much impact on the overall tax-free sales。

Impact: Consumption willingness continues to release and the tourism industry will improve in the long term

Comparison with the Spring Festival in 2020，After the New Year this year，Residents’ willingness to consume will continue to be released。Guotai Junan report pointed out，Travel in 2021、The impact on the catering industry may be far less than last year，Mid-to-high-end chain brand catering and urban and suburban vacation trips may benefit marginally。Offline entertainment activities such as movie watching may be suppressed，But the box office decline may be relatively limited。At the same time，Affected by the epidemic，Online shopping and delivery will usher in unexpected benefits。

Also，The COVID-19 outbreak in 2020 will have a significant impact on the tourism industry。Days ago，The Western Region Tourism Announcement reminds the risk of delisting。Western Region Tourism Announcement，The COVID-19 epidemic broke out across the country at the beginning of 2020，Having a serious impact on the entire tourism industry。Due to the repeated effects of the epidemic，Resulting in company performance losses。

For the difficulties faced by the tourism industry，Pointed out in the research report by Yang Xuehui, a joint credit analyst，Initial stage of the epidemic，Residents’ willingness to travel has dropped significantly，Many types of businesses in the tourism industry have entered a "suspension" state，Companies in the industry are not only facing shrinking cash flow，Still under greater rigid expenditure pressure；After the domestic 188bet app epidemic is basically under control，The industry is ushering in a certain recovery。Analysts think，With the normalization of epidemic prevention and control，Domestic tourism is recovering。

Analyst said，Long term，The core driving force driving the long-term development of tourism will not change，With the continued growth of per capita disposable income、Holidays and policy bonuses continue to be released，Residents’ willingness to travel remains high and supporting infrastructure such as transportation continues to improve，The tourism industry has good long-term development prospects。

Sinolink Securities research report points out，Tourism is a typical procyclical industry，Basically in sync with the economic growth trend。2020，The tourism market has been obviously negatively affected by the epidemic，It is estimated that the short-term negative impact will not completely subside。In the long run，Opportunities in the tourism industry lie in structurally beneficial market segments。Analysts expect to 2021，Passenger flow in the domestic tourism market can basically return to the level of 2019，Showing a recovery and high growth trend of more than 50% year-on-year。The basis for analysts to make this judgment is，It believes that domestic residents’ willingness to travel has recovered，But due to the tourist attractions restriction policy，The actual number of trips has only recovered to 80% of the same period last year，With tourist attractions、Basically matches the 75% limit of the current maximum capacity of indoor theaters，The domestic travel market has basically recovered in 2020。

As for the delisting risk of listed companies in the tourism sector such as Western Region Tourism，An expert pointed out，This epidemic has had a great impact on many industries。If business income is affected by the epidemic，As long as the facts are stated objectively and there is evidence，The China Securities Regulatory Commission does not rule out considering exceptions。

Actually，From last year，Regulatory authorities have paid attention to the impact of the epidemic 188bet app on listed companies，Previously, the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges had granted a two-month extension to companies that were unable to disclose their 2019 annual reports as scheduled due to the epidemic。

*This article comesSource: Securities Daily Network, author: Zheng Xinyue, original title: "“Celebrate the New Year on the spot”: Consumption potential is released, and the popularity of surrounding tourism increases》.