The epidemic prevention work is currently entering a critical stage，China’s economy is in a state of semi-paralysis，A huge price has been paid。The problem is，If the paralysis continues，May cause long-term damage and regression to economic competitiveness，And cause problems such as unemployment and social instability。This is not just an economic account，It is also a life account，Because of the emergence of these unfavorable factors，It will in turn affect the average life expectancy of a country。

We can study the historical data of various countries，To analyze the relationship between life expectancy and GDP per capita。An obvious fact is，Countries with higher per capita income，The average life expectancy will be longer。Because rich countries are more capable and willing in medical care、Investment in infrastructure and environmental governance，Thus increasing the average life expectancy while reducing the mortality rate。Based on research in this area，Generally speaking，Every time per capita income doubles，Under other conditions being roughly similar，The average life expectancy will increase by 1-3 years。Just like in the past few decades，As China’s per capita income continues to increase，China’s average life expectancy has also steadily increased，Vice versa，If China’s economy suffers a substantial recession，So Medical、Capabilities in infrastructure and environmental governance will also decline，The 188bet sports betting app download trend of increasing life expectancy may also be reversed。We can quantify this effect，Conservative estimate，If GDP per capita is reduced by 50%，The average life expectancy will be reduced by one and a half years，So mathematically speaking，Every 1% decrease in GDP per capita，The average life span will be reduced by about 10 days。

We can also verify this hypothesis through the theory of "life value" in economics。In economics，“Life value” is a relatively mature concept，Refers to how much a society is willing to spend to increase average life expectancy。Some people may be disgusted with this concept，Think there is no need to calculate the value of life，Because of course life is priceless。From an ethical perspective，The above point of view is correct。But in actual operation，No matter work or life、Business management or social management，Both must pursue a balance between reducing mortality risk and cost。As for how to find this balance point，You need to calculate the value of life in a scientific and rational way, which may seem ruthless but is actually scientific and rational。

Give an example，Like an underground miner、Super high building construction and other positions，Often means a much higher risk of death than other jobs。If purely from the perspective of reducing the risk of death，It seems that these positions should be eliminated。But actually，Doing so will not only increase the overall unemployment rate in society，In fact, it will also affect the normal progress of related work，In the end, society as a whole may bear the cost of underdevelopment。So in this case，A more rational approach，It is a system introduced by the government to strengthen labor protection in relevant positions，At the same time, the market gives these positions higher salary returns，Ultimately gain an income premium by allowing high-risk work，To achieve a balance 188bet online sports betting acceptable to all parties。

Enterprises and governments provide various means of transportation and transportation infrastructure，There also needs to be a balance between risk and cost。For example, when the government is designing a road，If more lanes were built，Or set up a special non-motorized lane，Or maybe the sidewalk is wider, etc.，All can reduce the mortality rate of traffic accidents。But it’s obvious，Not all roads have this setting。Does this mean that the designer has no regard for life safety?？Not so。As a designer，If you ignore cost when designing，A road that seems absolutely safe would cost 10 billion to build，It is possible that this road cannot be built at all，Let the common people have no way to go。So for this type of construction project，The government has issued a safety standard that must be enforced to ensure a lower limit，But what is the upper limit，Leave it to the designer to make the decision。

Then，How much is it worth spending to reduce the mortality rate?？Inside，There is also an implicit calculation of the value of balanced life。Actually，Economists have long been based on data from various countries，Calculated the value of life in an economic sense: in general，The value of life in developed countries is between 10-60 times per capita GDP。

Assume that the value of life is calculated based on 30 times GDP per capita，A person’s life is calculated as 80 years old is approximately equal to 30,000 days。

30000 days = 30x GDP per capita,

→300 days of life = 30% of GDP.

→1% of GDP= 10 days of life

can be found，This result is basically consistent with the above inference by comparing GDP per capita and life expectancy in different countries。

Back to the topic of preventing and treating infectious diseases。Flu numbers based on past years，If large-scale mandatory isolation is not adopted，Then under conventional prevention and control 188bet app download measures，The infection rate of influenza will not exceed 10% of the entire population，General mortality rate is 0.2%，Then the mortality rate of the entire population is 2 in 10,000。Assume that the average life expectancy of patients who die from influenza is 60 years，The average life span of society as a whole is 80 years，Then every person who dies shortens their life span by 20 years。Then calculate it based on the mortality rate of 2 per 10,000，The average per capita in the world has decreased by 20 years，Four thousandths，Almost equivalent to 1.5 days。So on average，A widespread influenza，Impact on the entire human society，Equivalent to reducing the average life span by 1.About 5 days。

With this basic judgment，Let’s consider what kind of public social policy is reasonable。If everyone with the flu, which is 10% of the population, was quarantined for 14 days，Family members who have been in close contact with him must also be quarantined (calculated as 20% of the population)，Then since they were almost no longer involved in wealth creation during this period，These people alone will lose 30%*14/365= 1% of GDP。mentioned above，1% GDP regression will actually make the entire society in medical care、Backsliding in infrastructure and environmental governance，The average life span will be reduced by about 10 days，Far greater than the losses caused by the flu。So just for this calculation，It is unreasonable to rely on complete isolation to treat influenza，So no country or society will take measures to isolate all people with influenza。

Some people may think the above calculation is a bit alarmist，But actually，We have not calculated the huge operational costs of isolating so many people，And the price paid for various restrictions on population movement。If calculated with a more pessimistic attitude，Then the reduction in GDP may not be 1% but 10% or even higher，This will lead 188bet Online Sports Betting and Casino to a reduction in average life expectancy of 100 days or more，The actual loss in life may even be dozens or even hundreds of times that of the flu itself。

Of course，If early in a flu outbreak，Isolation measures can control the influenza area to a small area，For example, if it is within 1% of the population or limited to one or two cities，Then the measure may still be worth it。But once the critical point is passed，If it has spread to an area with more than 10% of the population，If we continue to isolate patients and close contacts at this time，On the contrary, you will pay a greater price in life。

The epidemic we are currently facing，Not different from previous influenza，So various parameters such as mortality、Infection rate、The proportion of people who need to be quarantined and other parameters are different，A lot of data remains to be seen。However，The calculation logic of the economic impact on life expectancy is still the same。

Facing the epidemic，At present, the whole society from top to bottom has established the determination to win this battle at all costs。Such determination，Undoubtedly correct and necessary，We also believe that victory will eventually belong to the entire human race。But by the above calculation，I hope the whole society can realize it，Under the philosophy of "at any cost"，We must also strive to keep various "costs" to a minimum，Instead of allowing it to expand。

We need to adopt a scientific and rational attitude，To find out the best way to control and eliminate the epidemic。Diseases that threaten people’s lives，Except COVID-19，And cancer、Cardiovascular disease, etc.，We need to comprehensively consider all aspects of social resources and medical resources，Find a balance point that is most conducive to ensuring the safety of people’s lives。As for normal life order and work order，It is also an important foundation related to every life，All parties should strive to minimize the cost。

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